前言： 你若有缘看到金晟富的文章，相信你也肯定是看了无数篇的文章，寻找了无数个老师，却依旧做不好一 单的交易，我相信大家进来这个市场，追求的是长期稳健的收益，可现实往往让大家迷失了本心，偏离 了初衷。现在，是做出改变的时候了，找到属于自己的机会，晟富要做的就是用自己多年以来丰富的经 验和专业能力助你洞悉行情的涨跌，透过涨跌看透行情的本质。 从日线结构看，昨日收报一根长下影探底饱满反阳K，一般来讲，这种形态的企稳作用都相对强烈，也 意味着短期10均线位置基本确认完毕，这周的震荡区间下轨4400基本也就出来了，后续就看上轨4500的 突破，拿下之后或又展开新的高位区间或走趋势拉升；黄金4小时图来看：昨夜一波探底拉升之后，站 上了中轨和10均线，今日则双双成为顶底支撑，也就是守住4480-4460这个范围，此周期依然倾向于偏 强看涨；从小时线周期分析，价格下探4452后形成逐步抬升的低点，MACD指标在零轴上方维持金叉 状态，红柱温和放量，显示短期多头动能仍在延续；布林带轨道开口走平，价格依托布林中轨震荡上 行，当前运行至中轨与上轨之间，上轨4520附近存在初步压力，下轨4480则构成日内短期支撑；RSI指 标运行 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Precious metals prices rose throughout the week, with New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures increasing by 3.96% and silver futures rising by 11.72% due to sustained market risk aversion [1][11] - On December 9, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.48%, S&P 500 up 0.65%, and Nasdaq up 0.81% [3][5] - European stock indices also saw collective gains, with the FTSE 100 up 0.80%, CAC 40 up 1.44%, and DAX up 0.53% on the same day [7] Group 2: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December showed an increase of 50,000 jobs, which was below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from an anticipated 4.5% [5] - The annual increase in non-farm employment for 2025 marked the lowest growth since 2020, with a downward revision of 76,000 jobs in the previous two months [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices continued to rise, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures up 3.14% and Brent crude futures up 4.26% for the week, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply risks [9] - The price of gold for February delivery was reported at $4,500.90 per ounce, up 0.90%, while silver for March delivery was at $79.341 per ounce, with a gain of 5.59% [11]

来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：金价周线收阳，静待下周多空抉择 昨日黄金市场呈现稳步上涨格局。亚欧盘时段整体波动有限，价格于区间内窄幅整理；直至美盘前，金 价经历一波短暂回落后开启上扬，并一举突破4500美元整数大关，最高触及4516美元。尾盘阶段，价格 自高位有所回落，但最终仍收于4510美元上方，日线录得一根实体阳线。 下周（12月11日美联储利率决议前），联储官员将进入缄默期，公开言论将显著减少，市场情绪将主要 围绕现有数据进行博弈与解读。因此，下周开盘后需重点关注市场对非农等关键数据的持续性解读与消 化，这将成为周初主导短期走势的关键。同时，需密切留意周末可能出现的任何地缘政治或经济新闻， 若因此导致周一开盘出现明显跳空缺口，应避免在缺口形成初期盲目追涨杀跌，耐心等待市场情绪稳 定、方向明确后再行操作。关注张津镭。 基于上述分析，下周操作思路张津镭建议，请各位金友严格控仓，并带好止损止盈： 观察高位阻力：若金价高开后反弹至4530-4550美元区域，但出现上行动能减弱、无法有效突破的迹 象，可考虑轻仓试空。目标可先看4480-4450美元区域，止损建议设置在阻力区上方（如4560美元）。 等待突破确认 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump's strong statements regarding Greenland have heightened geopolitical tensions, which resonate with the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices [1] - Trump emphasized the strategic importance of Greenland for national security and mentioned various options being evaluated by his administration, including direct purchase and military presence expansion [1] - Analysts noted that rising geopolitical uncertainties have reinforced market risk aversion, providing additional support for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. employment data showed a non-farm payroll increase of only 50,000 in December, below the market expectation of 66,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% with a month-on-month wage growth of 0.3% [2] - This combination of data is perceived to provide policy space for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in early 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a cooling labor market [2] - Analysts indicated that the slowdown in employment growth, a slight drop in unemployment, and a weaker dollar collectively support gold prices, although inflation persistence may slow the rate cut pace [2] Group 3 - Despite short-term risks, the market remains optimistic about gold's mid-term outlook, with expectations that weaker-than-expected non-farm data strengthens bullish logic for gold [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices may trade in the range of $4,550 to $4,600 in the short term, with a breakthrough above $4,500 potentially opening up space to challenge historical highs [3] - As of the last close, spot gold rose by 0.72% to $4,509.73 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of the year, with prices reaching a historical high of $82.744 per ounce on January 6, followed by a sharp decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment, which reduced the increase from 15% to 4% since 2026. However, buying interest has led to a rebound, with prices around $78.8 per ounce as of January 9 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, had an asset scale nearing $109 billion as of October 2025. The annual weight adjustment period for 2026 is from January 8 to 14, with silver's weight in the index reduced from 9% to just below 4%, leading to significant selling pressure [5]. - Citigroup estimates that the total sell-off for both gold and silver will be around $7 billion, with silver's asset management scale (AUM) at $12.9 billion and a target of $6 billion [5]. - Morgan Stanley has quantified the sell-off pressure on silver for 2026, indicating it will be more significant than in 2025, with silver facing the heaviest selling pressure compared to gold [5]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Technical Adjustments - January is traditionally a month of intense market dynamics for gold, with an 80% probability of price increases during the last ten trading days of the previous year and the first twenty of the new year. However, the technical sell-off due to index weight adjustments may counteract this seasonal trend [6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised margin requirements for precious metals multiple times, with the latest adjustment on January 8, aimed at ensuring adequate collateral coverage amid market volatility [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Some investors are positioning themselves for a decline in silver prices, with analysts from TD Securities establishing short positions, anticipating significant selling pressure due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's reweighting [10]. - Despite recent volatility, the overall sentiment for the precious metals sector in 2026 remains optimistic, with analysts suggesting that any weakness in silver could present buying opportunities [11][12]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The World Silver Institute reports an average annual supply-demand gap of over 130 million ounces since 2021, totaling nearly 800 million ounces, which is equivalent to two years of global mine production. This gap is being filled by depleting inventories, which are at a ten-year low across major markets [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and new regulations in India that may boost silver demand, suggests that silver still has potential for strength in 2026, despite short-term volatility [13][14].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm employment growth in December was below expectations, with a total increase of 50,000 jobs compared to the forecast of 65,000 jobs, marking the weakest annual performance since the pandemic [1] - The unemployment rate in December was reported at 4.4%, slightly better than the expected 4.5% [1] - The total non-farm employment increase for the year was 584,000, the weakest annual growth since the significant job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Employment Data - The October non-farm employment figure was revised down from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, while November's figure was adjusted from an increase of 64,000 to an increase of 56,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 76,000 jobs for November and December combined [1][3] - The three-month moving average employment data has entered negative territory, indicating a significant decline in labor market momentum [1][3] Sector Performance - The private sector showed weak employment growth, with manufacturing jobs continuing to decline [3] - The healthcare sector was a primary driver of job creation, adding 21,000 jobs, although this was below the average monthly increase of 34,000 jobs in 2023 [3] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with the previous value revised to 0.2% [4] - Over the past 12 months, wages have grown by 3.8%, outpacing inflation by approximately 1 percentage point [4] Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock futures saw a short-term rise, with the Nasdaq futures up by 0.43%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.33%, and Dow futures up by 0.28% [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds fell, and the dollar index experienced a short-term decline [5] - Spot gold prices rose, reaching $4,490 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.30% [6]

Group 1 - Japan's household spending in November 2025 surged by 6.2% month-on-month, reversing a 3.5% decline in October, and showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, compared to a 2.9% decline in October [1] - The strong spending data supports hawkish views within the Bank of Japan, potentially leading to an increase in neutral interest rates and the tightening of monetary policy [1] - Private consumption accounts for approximately 55% of Japan's GDP, indicating that robust consumer spending could drive demand-pull inflation, reinforcing the central bank's stance on tightening [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in March 2026, with economists predicting an increase of 60,000 jobs in December [2] - The ISM services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy and reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [2] - The expectation of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, combined with a potentially dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chair, remains a key factor influencing the medium-term outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY is currently above the 50-day (155.22) and 200-day (151.56) exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bullish tendency; however, the prevailing bearish fundamentals are overshadowing this technical signal [3] - A break below the 50-day moving average and the key support level of 155 could accelerate downward momentum, with the 200-day moving average serving as significant support [3] - If the exchange rate consistently falls below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, it would further reinforce a medium-term bearish price trend [3]

在风云变幻的金融市场,每一次关键数据的发布都如同一颗投入湖面的石子,而美国非农就业报告更是其中的"重磅炸弹",牵动着全球投资者的神经。1月9日,高 盛就即将发布的美国2025年12月份非农就业报告给出了前瞻性分析,其核心观点直指:数据需"大幅意外"才能撼动美联储4月降息预期。这一论断背后,蕴含着 怎样的市场逻辑与经济信号? 高盛前瞻:非农数据"波澜不惊"难改降息预期 高盛在致客户的研究报告中,对即将到来的非农就业报告进行了细致解读。高盛预计,这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人,与普遍预期基本一致。尽管非正 式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险,但高盛坚定认为,一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现有的宏观经济叙事。 当前,市场对于美联储的政策预期已形成较为稳固的共识。市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息,首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。高 盛进一步强调,需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外,才能显著地将这一降息时点提前或推后。这就好比一艘在平静海面上航行的巨轮,非农数 据只有掀起足够大的"风浪",才能改变其既定的航向。 来源：壹点文明 然而,金融市场总是充满了不确定性,非农就业 ...

今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.68%，沪银主力收跌0.90%，铂金主力收涨1.11%，钯金主力收涨涨6.01%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，特朗普政府 正在讨论获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括军事选项。美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国去年12月 "小非农"温和复苏。美国11月职位空缺降至14个月新低，表明劳动力需求减弱。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年 初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美 联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或 到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯 金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤资金面，彭博大宗商 品指数 (BCOM)和高盛商品指数 (GSCI)将启动年度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the arrest of Venezuela's president, and upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, leading to profit-taking by investors and a subsequent high-level adjustment in gold prices [2][6]. Market Analysis - The market is currently focused on the U.S. non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%. If the data meets or falls short of expectations, it may reinforce the anticipation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which would be favorable for gold prices [2][6]. - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying [3][7]. Technical Indicators - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,450 and $4,400, while resistance levels are at $4,500 and $4,550. The 5-day moving average shows a bullish crossover, while MACD indicates a slight bearish crossover, and KDJ shows a bullish crossover, suggesting a mixed short-term technical outlook [2][7]. - Gold prices have shown high-level fluctuations, with recent trading between $4,460 and $4,480, currently around $4,473. The price has faced resistance at $4,500 after a recent high of $4,484 [1][5].