北京时间6月4日晚间，美国5月ADP就业数据（俗称"小非农"）以3.7万的新增就业人数震惊市场，仅为预期值11万的三分之一，创2023年3月以来最低增 幅。数据公布后，美元指数短线跳水20个基点，一度跌破99关口至98.9783，现货黄金则飙升6美元至3354.52美元/盎司，凸显市场对经济前景的担忧与避险 需求的激增。叠加当日公布的美国5月ISM服务业PMI降至49.9（近一年首次萎缩），以及特朗普政府上调钢铝关税至50%的政策冲击，黄金多头迎来多重利 好共振。 当日公布的美国5月ISM服务业PMI进一步加剧了市场恐慌。该指数从4月的51.6骤降至49.9，为2024年6月以来首次跌破荣枯线，新订单指数更暴跌5.9个点至 46.4，创近两年最大跌幅。分项数据中，支付价格指数跳升至68.7（2022年11月以来最高），显示企业成本压力仍在累积，而就业指数从50.2降至49.2，印证 劳动力市场恶化。 一、小非农数据"暴击"美元，降息预期白热化 此次ADP数据的疲软程度远超市场预期。此前，市场普遍预测5月私营部门就业将新增11万人，但实际仅为3.7万，且4月数据从8万下修至6万，显示劳动力 市场加速降温。数据公 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold traded around $3,370 per ounce, rising nearly 1% on June 4 due to weak U.S. data and a softening dollar, reaching a high of $3,384.71 [1] - Domestic gold prices reported at ¥781.76 per gram, with a basic gold price of ¥778.1 per gram and retail price for investment gold bars at ¥794.1 per gram [1] Group 2 - Weak U.S. economic data has strengthened the demand for safe-haven assets, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 in May, marking the first drop below the neutral line since June 2024, and the ADP employment increase at only 37,000, the lowest in over two years [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, with the Trump administration doubling steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, is expected to increase inflation concerns and enhance gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to $3,700, emphasizing the combined impact of tariff uncertainty and recession risks [6] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices closed at $3,372.60, maintaining above the 50-day moving average, with significant resistance at the $3,400 level [7] - Silver prices closed at $34.489, forming a doji pattern, with strong resistance at $34.80 and support from the 20-day moving average [11]

1）定观： 特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费税融税负担担忧。 但达美国月ISI新部造与非制造业PIII.798. 5649. 9均低于预期和南德，6月10IR就业人数为3.7 / 尔先于预期和南值， 德 美联储降息预期时点提前至9/10月。 | !2）上游： 彩金矿业旗下:莫卿-卡库拉铜矿西侧正在热水目或于�月下旬复产但东侧排水或持续至2月（25年计划矿产钢52-58万吨），加拿大Tack Besourcess 型公民口目宣布旗下智利 | Carner de Indaco11>铜矿团360;唐机出现机械故障风Quebrada Blanca楼口装船机发生无关的阿时故障而均需停产线修约个月，印尼自由港麦克某三公司（Freeport: Mollokan）3月 | | --- | --- | | 17日被笛评�个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更富出口税，钢陵亮由演下位于厄瓜多尔拉米拉多铜矿二期6万吨产能或于85年下半年投产，巨龙钢矿新趋二期200万吨/日扩建工程 | | | 或于25年底投产，ACC Netal s旗下GedLictepe多金属矿山的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产且初期年产量为2.5万 ...

宏观面 周三（6 月 4 日），国际金价显著攀升 0.56%，这一波动源于全球经济的复杂态势。美国经济数据不佳，如 ISM 非制造业 PMI 降至 49.9，ADP 就业岗位增 加远不及预期，使得投资者信心受挫，纷纷转向黄金避险，盘中金价一度触及 3384.55 美元 / 盎司。同时，美元指数下跌 0.5%，10 年期美债收益率回落， 降低了持有黄金的机会成本，增强了黄金吸引力。 特朗普政府关税政策冲击全球经济与金融市场，6 月 4 日钢铁和铝进口关税翻倍，严重影响全球供应链，引发市场不安，进一步凸显黄金的避险价值。市场 对美联储降息预期也大幅升温，9 月降息可能性达 77%，ADP 就业数据和通胀压力为降息预期提供支撑。投资者期待 6 月 6 日的美国非农就业报告，其将 影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期，进而左右金价走势。此外，欧洲央行利率决议、美国初请失业金人数等因素也将持续影响黄金价格。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周三美元指数呈现出下跌上涨态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至99.372的位置，最低则下探至98.646，最终以 98.789的价格收盘。 回顾周三市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线先震荡上涨，但是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - **Positive (Trend Intensity 2)**: Gold, Silver [24] - **Slightly Positive (Trend Intensity 1)**: Copper, Tin [28][43] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity 0)**: Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal [31][33][36][50][65][69][74][77] - **Slightly Negative (Trend Intensity - 1)**: Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon [54][58] 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US economic data in May was weak. The ADP employment data was far below expectations, and the ISM services index contracted for the first time in a year, increasing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Trump also pressured the Fed to cut rates [8][25]. - **Commodity Market Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: The weak ADP data in the US boosted gold, and silver followed the upward trend [21]. - **Base Metals**: The weakening of the US dollar supported copper prices. Aluminum was in a sideways - oscillating state, and alumina was running weakly. Zinc was in range adjustment, lead stabilized at a low level, tin stopped falling and rebounded, and the nickel market was supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel prices oscillated in a range due to the game between negative feedback and production cuts [26][29][32][35][38][44]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Industrial silicon was affected by sentiment with limited upside space, and polysilicon had a weak fundamental pattern. Iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coil oscillated widely due to market sentiment and industry data. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated widely with the black - metal sector. Coke started the third round of price cuts, and coking coal was affected by news and oscillated strongly. Steam coal stabilized at the bottom stage [56][59][62][66][71][72][75]. - **Agricultural Products and Others**: Logs oscillated weakly [78]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The "small non - farm" data in the US was much weaker than expected, leading to a rebound in gold, and silver followed. The trend intensities of gold and silver were both 2, indicating a relatively positive outlook [21][24]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The weakening of the US dollar supported copper prices. The trend intensity was 1, showing a slightly positive trend. Some copper producers' production decreased, and Japan's copper imports increased [26][28]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum oscillated sideways, and alumina ran weakly. Their trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29][31]. - **Zinc**: Zinc was in range adjustment with a trend intensity of 0 [32][33]. - **Lead**: Lead stabilized at a low level with a trend intensity of 0 [35][36]. - **Tin**: Tin stopped falling and rebounded with a trend intensity of 1 [38][43]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel was supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel prices oscillated in a range due to the game between negative feedback and production cuts. Their trend intensities were both 0 [44][50]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon was affected by sentiment with limited upside space, and polysilicon had a weak fundamental pattern. Their trend intensities were both - 1 [56][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore oscillated widely due to repeated industry expectations with a trend intensity of - 1 [59]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil were boosted by market sentiment and oscillated widely. Their trend intensities were both 0 [62][65]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillated widely with the black - metal sector. Their trend intensities were both 0 [66][69]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke started the third round of price cuts, and coking coal was affected by news and oscillated strongly. Their trend intensities were both 0 [71][74]. - **Steam Coal**: Steam coal stabilized at the bottom stage with a trend intensity of 0 [75][77]. Others - **Logs**: Logs oscillated weakly [78]

| 贵金属日评20250605:美国部分经济数据初现走弱迹象,关注今日欧洲央行6月利率决议 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-03 | 2025-05-28 | 2025-06-04 | 收盘价 | 772. 28 | 783.10 | 10.14 | 782. 42 | -0. 68 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 210848.00 | 191944.00 | 131022.00 | 60, 922. 00 | -18, 904. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 180833.00 | 199056.00 | 180310.00 | -523.00 | -18, 746. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

贵金属日报:聚焦非农 回调布多 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月5日 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线延续震荡调整，关注90天关税暂停观察期在后半程的博弈与进展，预计随着波动下 降，贵金属选择向上突破可能性大于向下。伦敦金阻力3385-3400区域，强阻力3440-3500区域；支撑 3355，3300，3200，3100；伦敦银支撑34.2，33.6，阻力上移至34.8-35区域。我们仍将短线回调视为 中长期做多机会，但近期或维持高位震荡为主。 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属震荡微涨，晚间公布的美ADP小非农与ISM服务业PMI数据不佳，略微提升美联储年内降息 预期，特别是9月降息预期有所回升，推动美指与10Y美债收益率回落，利多贵金属价格。最终黄金2508 合约收报3397.4美元/盎司，+0.6%；美白银2507合约收报于34.655美元/盎司，+0.06%。 SHFE黄金 2508主力合约收报782.42元/克，-0.41%；SHFE白银2508合约收8463元/千克，+0.05%。 【资金与库存】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 期指：美联储降息预期升温，偏强震荡 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3868.74 | ↑0.43 | | 2117.4 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3842.4 | ↑0.41 | -26.34 | 547.7 | 47487 | ↓5473 | 116411 | ↓7467 | | IF2507 | 3803.2 | ↑0.39 | -65.54 | 41.6 | 3641 | ↓717 | 13559 | ↑205 | | IF2509 | 3769.4 | ↑0.37 | -99.34 | 166.4 | ...

黄金技术面分析：周三黄金盘面回撤调整后，再次探底回升，晚间盘面慢牛反弹，最高再次回到3385附 近，逼近前期高点的齐跌位置，一方面反弹出现连续性，另一方面吃掉了昨日晚盘的回落，这个时候一 定不是走弱的行情。再一个就是注意行情的节奏，最近的行情基本是十点前后一波，下午基本是鸡肋， 尤其是欧盘时间段，就是来回晃悠，而晚盘就是九到十点这个时间段会延续亚盘的形态。所以今日短线 日内布局就卡这个节奏来参与。目前短线陷入高位震荡钝化。日线图反复测试高点但突破仍缺少动能。 日线图开始进入收缩震荡当中。布林道开始收口。所以还是不要贸然的去追多，主要是做节奏。 日线图上黄金早上先是快速下跌，造成诱空的局面，然后晚上暴力拉升到3385，把追空的一车带走。从 4小时分析来看，今日下方支撑关注3355-58一线附近，日线级别企稳此位置上方继续看多头强势震荡上 行节奏，重点关注3350一线多空风水岭，短线价格交投3383一线，该位置已经现价通知做空。多头收割 完之后就开始高空，不过当天重要多空分水岭咱们需要关注3368美元一线！如果价格顺利高位按照预期 走弱，跌破且失守该位置之后。空头估计会去测试3350一线，当日空头最大下限可看至3 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 5 月 ADP"爆冷"！就业人数骤降至 3.7 万人 最新的美国经济数据不及预期，美国经济下行压力加剧，美元 短期走弱。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数近一年来首次萎缩 经济下行风险不断积累，但在降息预期的支撑下，市场风险偏 好并未明显回落，美股延续震荡走势。 综 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 合 河北炼焦煤市场持稳运行 晨 报 短期来看，焦煤基本面暂无明显变化，更多是交易基差和情绪 修复，后续需关注供应变化 有色金属（锌） 上海锌：下游企业畏高，成交表现较差 CSZTP 发布 3Q25 进口加工费指导区间于 80-100 美元/干吨，对 应国内 TC 在 4000-4500 元/吨，预计年内加工费仍有不小上行空 间。 能源化工（纯碱） 6 月 4 日华北市场纯碱价格行情 今日纯碱期价涨幅较大，一方面受益于市场整体风险偏好回升， 另一方面也是联碱法成本附近本身存在一定支撑。 | 许惠敏 | 资深分析师 ...