二次育肥

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生猪月报:活体库存继续增加上行阻力仍存-20250425
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 10:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, the spot market for live pigs rose, boosted by China's increased tariffs on imported soybeans, corn, and meat products from the US and the rising enthusiasm for secondary fattening. The futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH07 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to concerns about increased supply pressure in July. Based on the official data of breeding sows and piglet birth data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 is expected to remain high. With the active entry of secondary fattening in late April, attention should be paid to the pressure of live inventory destocking. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [1][3][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, the live pig spot market rose, and the futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH05 contract converged to the spot price as it approached delivery, causing the basis to weaken and the LH5 - LH7 spread to widen significantly. The LH07 contract was weaker due to concerns about increased supply in July [3]. 2. Pig Industry Dynamics - **Shrinking Pig Production Capacity**: As of the first quarter, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 470,000 (1.2%) but a slight month - on - month decrease. It was 103.5% of the target inventory of 39 million, close to the upper - middle range of the green and reasonable production capacity regulation area. Considering the low profit of pig prices, the pig production capacity is expected to remain stable with a slight decline [5]. - **Adequate Theoretical Supply in the Second and Third Quarters**: Since August last year, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises has continued to increase month - on - month. In 2025, the number of piglets born has increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient supply and high theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters [8]. - **High Inventory Indicated by Feed Production and Sales**: In March, the production and sales of piglet feed increased month - on - month, slightly lower than the seasonal growth rate. The production of fattening pig feed in March showed normal seasonal growth. Considering the lower decline from December to February compared with previous years, the pig inventory is still high [10]. - **Accumulating Live Inventory and Attention to Destocking Rhythm**: Since April, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has continued to decline, and the average weight after slaughter has returned to a level close to last year. With the passive entry of secondary fattening and the increase in the utilization rate of fattening houses, attention should be paid to the live inventory destocking rhythm and potential supply pressure when the temperature rises [13]. - **Relatively Stable Slaughter and Frozen Product Inventory Reaching Last Year's Level**: In April, the slaughter volume of domestic sample enterprises was relatively stable compared with the previous month and slightly increased year - on - year. The slaughter gross profit in April declined compared with the previous month but was better than last year. The demand is slightly better than the same period last year. The frozen product inventory has approached last year's level [17][19]. - **Increased Piglet Cost and Higher Out - of - Pen Cost for Purchased Piglets**: After the Spring Festival, pig prices fluctuated at a low level and slightly rose in late April, with the breeding profit remaining at a small profit level. Since January, the continuous increase in piglet prices has led to a significant increase in the out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets. The theoretical out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg [22]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The situation in April was similar to the core viewpoints. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [24][25].
重回15元/公斤!猪价终于要翻身了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-24 10:02
我们之前曾说,对生猪市场来说,4月份是一个关键的月份。 为什么这么说呢? 二次育肥虽然说改变不了生猪的供需,但是能改变生猪市场的供应节奏,从而也会影响到猪价行情。 而二次育肥的旺季就是四五月份。 为什么是四五月呢? 因为生猪市场消费旺季通常是在下半年,也就是三四季度,所以要想在这个时期对应出栏,那么把时间往前推,四五月份就正是二次育肥的最佳时间。 受二次育肥意愿及程度影响,生猪市场供应也会出现相应的变化,猪价就会出现相应的波动。 因为生猪市场行情往往在4月会出现变化。 当然,是好的变化。 第一,春暖花开,消费抬头。 春夏暖,秋冬寒,而4月份呢,就正好是一个由寒转暖的关键时期,而随着万物复苏,春暖花开,出来游玩的人也多了,消费也明显有抬头迹象。 再加上五一又是个长假,这也就更加加剧了市场情绪的高涨。 第二,四五月份是二次育肥的旺季。 第三就是这个规律尤其是在近两年里,几乎是无一例外的。一般表现为4月底有一个小抬头,等到六七月、七八月以后才是大抬头。 所以,别看4月份好像平淡无奇,但对养殖业来说却是一个关键的月份。 而今年这4月也是不负众望,4月底,猪价开始明显抬头了。 全国外三元生猪均价从之前折14元/公斤区间 ...
生猪:回归产业逻辑,累库持续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-20 07:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. The sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive since April, with the spot price mainly showing a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits, so attention should be paid to hedging opportunities while being cautious about setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (4.14 - 4.20) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price showed a strong and volatile trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 45.2 yuan/kg (the same as last week), the live pig price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg (up from 14.82 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1635 yuan/head (the same as last week). On the supply side, the group's slaughter progress was basically in line with expectations, and the slaughter of individual farmers decreased. On the demand side, the difference between frozen and fresh meat prices continuously supported demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening increased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 126KG (up from 125.64KG last week), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong upward trend. The highest price of the LH2505 contract this week was 13890 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13875 yuan/ton (compared to 13380 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2505 contract was 1195 yuan/ton (down from 1440 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (4.21 - 4.27) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. Since March, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has had a significant impact on prices. Secondary fattening has continuously purchased and held pigs, and the pig weight has continued to increase. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market expectation is weak, which stimulates secondary fatteners to sell before the festival. There may be a wave of selling, which will further narrow the price difference between fat and lean pigs, and the spot performance will continue to exceed expectations. In terms of supply, the vacancy rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening pens are relatively high. High - weight pigs will be sold according to the market, while small - weight pigs will continue to be held. The group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. According to the sow plan, the increase in slaughter volume in the second quarter is limited, and the increase in the third quarter will be more obvious. In terms of demand, it is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand will drop significantly compared to the peak before the Spring Festival. However, the demand for converting frozen meat to fresh meat has increased, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. It is expected that there will also be a small seasonal increase in April. In terms of driving factors, the frozen product sector is limited by the expected price peak and capital pressure, and hopes to start warehousing at a price of 13.5 yuan/kg or lower. Import tariffs have limited impact on the total volume, and the cost transmission range is also limited. Pigs weighing around 300 catties have seen an increased volume of selling before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and there is still a willingness to enter the market after the festival. In general, there is still speculative demand support in mid - to - late April, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2505 contract closed at 13875 yuan/ton on April 18th. As tariff and macro - sentiment cool down, the trading logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. Since April, the sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive, and the spot price has mainly shown a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. Many groups have announced a significant decrease in the breeding cost in March, mainly due to cost reduction driven by management and efficiency improvement. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits. The short - term support level of the LH2505 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: This week, the basis was 1195 yuan/ton, and the calendar spread between LH2505 and LH2507 was 215 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 126KG (compared to 124.64KG last week). In February, the pork production was 3.655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.5%, and the pork import volume was 83,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% [12].
建信期货生猪日报-20250417
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 01:03
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: April 17, 2025 [2] - Core View: The supply of pigs tends to increase, demand is weakening, and the market is in a state of loose supply and demand. However, the active entry of secondary fattening in the short - term has intercepted part of the supply and boosted the spot price. The futures contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 16th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downwards, closing in the negative. The highest was 14,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,275 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,253 lots to 160,482 lots [7] - Spot: On the 16th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Pig Market Analysis - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pig fattening pens is rising slightly. Due to low fattening costs and favorable fat - standard price differentials, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased recently. As the weather warms, some farmers are replenishing their stocks. Terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. On April 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 135,900 heads, a decrease of 2,200 heads from the previous day and 1,000 heads from a week ago [8] - Supply Side: The planned sales volume in April is 23.16 million heads, a 3.67% increase from the actual slaughter volume in March and a 7.13% daily increase. In the short - term, the slaughter of farmers has decreased slightly, and the slaughter weight has declined slightly [8] - Overall Market: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. However, the active entry of secondary fattening in the short - term has intercepted part of the supply and boosted the spot price. Futures contracts are at a discount to the spot. Near - term contracts (2505/2507) are weak due to the off - season demand, while the far - term 2509 contract is strong due to expected growth in demand and rising feeding costs [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi's tracking and research data, in the week of April 10th, the weekly slaughter volume of the sample was 1.5005 million heads, a decrease of 30,700 heads or 2.01% from the previous week. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily sample was 138,836 heads, a decrease of 1,391 heads or 0.99% from the previous week [9][11] Group 4: Data Overview - On April 10th, the average market price of 15 - kg piglets was 659 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [18] - As of April 10th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 170 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened with purchased piglets was 161 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 19 yuan/head [18] - As of April 10th, the expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 13.32 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.08 yuan/kg. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 15.23 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.3 yuan/kg [18] - In the week of April 10th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.81 kg, a decrease of 0.08 kg or 0.06% from the previous week [18]
生猪:现货跌幅不及预期,情绪偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 02:18
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market expected a price correction after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There was a large amount of second - fattening pig sales before the festival, and the narrowing and inversion of the price difference of 300 - jin fat pigs recently confirmed the sales. The volume of second - fattening pigs waiting to enter the market after the festival is large, so the callback space after the festival is limited, and the secondary inventory accumulation rhythm is expected to be quickly realized. The May and July contracts have already priced in the expected spot price correction in advance. During the holiday, the spot price was strong, and the logic of narrowing the basis may reappear [3]. - The capacity data in March is expected to be good, and the far - month contracts lack upward driving forces, being more likely to fall than to rise. The positive spreads of 5 - 9, 7 - 9, or 7 - 11 have allocation space [3]. - The actual impact of the Sino - US tariff issue is limited, but the sentiment is strong. Pay attention to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,400 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,280 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change [1]. Futures Prices - The price of the生猪2505 contract is 13,270 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2507 contract is 13,480 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2509 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the生猪2505 contract is 25,524 lots, an increase of 5,287 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,224 lots, a decrease of 1,388 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2507 contract is 5,733 lots, an increase of 1,463 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 33,498 lots, a decrease of 270 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 7,232 lots, an increase of 605 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 44,406 lots, an increase of 243 lots from the previous day [1]. Price Spreads - The basis of the生猪2505 contract is 1,330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2507 contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2509 contract is 740 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 70 yuan/ton [1]. - The 5 - 7 spread of live pigs is - 210 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is - 380 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].
饲料养殖产业日报-2025-04-02
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 01:37
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term prices of various products in the feed and breeding industry have different trends, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, and consumption seasons. Strategies for different varieties are given based on these trends [1][2][4][7][8] - There are both upward and downward pressures on the prices of different products, and investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each product [1][2][4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Live Pigs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.8 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 14.2 - 14.7 yuan/kg; and in Guangdong, it was stable at 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supported by factors like industry profits, low - position entry of second - round fattening, and holiday demand, but also pressured by cautious second - round fattening at high prices, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. Prices will oscillate around 14 yuan/kg [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: From March to September 2024, supply will increase due to the continuous slow growth of fertile sows from May to November 2024 and improved production performance. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the risk of price decline intensifies. The long - term price is also under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: In the short term, supply pressure is postponed. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For contracts 05, 07, and 09, pay attention to their respective pressure levels and sell out - of - the - money call options [1] 2. Eggs - **Price Situation**: On April 2, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing, it was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2] - **Short - term Outlook**: Supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and holiday - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: High - profit - driven high - level replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025 will lead to an increase in new - laying hens in the second quarter, and the supply increase in the second half of the year is difficult to reverse [2] - **Strategy**: For contract 05, wait and see; for contracts 08 and 09, take a bearish view, and pay attention to feed and culling factors [2] 3. Oils Palm Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the national palm oil price rose by 30 - 50 yuan/ton to 9610 - 9850 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in March, exports increased slightly, and the inventory may have reached an inflection point. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the inventory has decreased to 36.87 tons [4] - **Long - term Outlook**: After April, the production in the origin will increase, and the demand will weaken after the festival. The price may decline from the high level [4] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of palm oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound. The domestic soybean oil price changed by 10 - 90 yuan/ton to 8150 - 8320 yuan/ton [3][4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Influenced by factors such as the potential increase in biodiesel blending, lower - than - expected US soybean planting area, and large - scale Brazilian soybean listing, the price will oscillate in a range [5] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply pressure will be large from April to May, and the inventory reduction ability will be limited [5] - **Strategy**: Contract 05 of soybean oil runs in the 7700 - 8200 range in the short term. Adopt a range - trading strategy [7] Rapeseed Oil - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the domestic rapeseed oil price rose 90 yuan/ton to 9360 - 9680 yuan/ton [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by the tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, the price is relatively strong [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: After the second quarter, due to factors such as reduced Canadian rapeseed planting area and inventory reduction, the price is expected to stop falling and rebound [6] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 of rapeseed oil are in a strong - oscillating trend in the short term. Pay attention to the 9500 pressure level and be cautious about chasing up [7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the US soybean 05 contract rose 19.5 cents to 1034.25 cents/bushel, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2804 yuan/ton [7] - **Short - term Outlook**: Affected by factors such as Brazilian soybean harvest pressure, domestic inventory reduction falling short of expectations, and increased supply in the future, the price trend is weak [7] - **Long - term Outlook**: Import cost increase and possible reduction in US soybean planting area will provide support for the price [7] - **Strategy**: Contracts 05 and 07 are weak in the short term, short on rallies; for m2509, build long positions at low prices [7] 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On April 1, the new - corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2160 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - **Short - term Outlook**: There is selling pressure in the short term, but there is also support from factors such as trade - end price support and downstream replenishment demand [8] - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply - demand situation will tighten, but the price increase space is limited due to factors such as substitutes [8] - **Strategy**: Take a generally stable - to - bullish attitude. For contract 05, look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks; pay attention to 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 calendar spreads [9] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - CBOT soybean active contract rose 18.75 cents to 1032.75 cents/bushel; soybean meal main contract fell 47 yuan/ton to 2804 yuan/ton; and other varieties also had corresponding price changes [10]
生猪养殖行业月度跟踪:农林牧渔行业:2月供过于求均价回调,关注养殖成本变动
Dongxing Securities· 2025-03-14 08:32
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Viewpoints - In February, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16] - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday slaughtering, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. The demand side is experiencing a post-holiday decline, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations [13][19] - The report anticipates that the pig price recovery in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The market supply is generally sufficient, with a gradual return to normal slaughtering rates post-holiday. The average slaughtering rate in February was 20.24% [13][19] - Demand: Post-holiday demand is declining, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations. The price difference between live pigs and pork is 4.53 CNY/kg, indicating weak consumer performance [13][19] Cost and Pricing Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products from the U.S. is expected to raise breeding costs. Tariffs include a 15% increase on wheat and corn, and a 10% increase on sorghum and soybeans [16][19] - The breeding cost for leading companies is crucial for maintaining profitability during periods of declining pig prices. Companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs have managed to keep their breeding costs below 13 CNY/kg [33][34] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices of major listed companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope were 14.76 CNY/kg, 14.96 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 14.64 CNY/kg respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.53%, 5.27%, 6.67%, and 5.07% [24][25] - The total slaughter volume in February showed a significant decline, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology experiencing decreases of 10.39% and 21.12% respectively [25][30] Future Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity is likely to remain profitable in 2025. The industry index PB has slightly increased but remains at a low level. The report suggests that as consumption-boosting policies are implemented in 2025, leading breeding companies are expected to see valuation recovery [21][34]