Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to experience a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) situation in the pig industry, despite entering the consumption peak season, due to various factors affecting supply and demand [1] Supply Side - The number of breeding sows is showing a slight downward trend, and it is anticipated to continue decreasing in the fourth quarter [1] - The slaughter levels for the fourth quarter are becoming clearer, with an expected increase in pork supply due to higher slaughter volumes and weight factors [1] Demand Side - Although the fourth quarter typically marks a peak consumption period, the support for demand may not meet expectations [1] - There is a tendency for secondary fattening to lean towards net slaughter during this period [1] Environmental Factors - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to influence weather patterns, leading to drought in the south and flooding in the north, with a high probability of increased rainfall in winter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The pork price is experiencing a downward trend, reaching new lows, with concerns about potentially falling below 13 yuan/kg. However, there is a belief that prices may stabilize by the end of September if the market can withstand the mid-month pressures [2]. Group 1: Supply Risks - The official target is to reduce the breeding pig capacity to below 39 million heads by the end of the year, while the breeding sow capacity was still at 40.42 million heads as of the end of July, indicating a tight timeline for adjustments [4]. - The concentration of the pig farming industry has increased significantly after previous capacity reductions, making the actions of leading companies more impactful on the market. Typically, there is a tightening of supply at the beginning and end of the month, with increased supply expected mid-month, leading to potential price declines [5]. - There is a risk of supply pressure due to the ongoing production capacity adjustments and the need to manage the market effectively [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Although there has been a slight improvement in pork consumption with the cooling weather, it is still far from the expected peak consumption season, indicating that demand has not significantly rebounded [6]. - The increase in supply from large enterprises, coupled with sluggish demand, poses a significant challenge for small and medium-sized farmers, potentially pushing some out of the market [6]. - The upcoming double festival at the end of the month is expected to provide a temporary boost to market consumption, which may influence market sentiment positively [6]. Group 3: Market Adjustments - The pace of reducing the weight of pigs for slaughter is slowing down, which means that the market supply of pork may decrease, alleviating some supply pressure [8]. - There has been a rise in secondary fattening practices, which, despite official controls, are expected to increase as the consumption season approaches, further tightening the supply pressure [9]. - With a reduction in supply and an anticipated increase in demand, there is a possibility for pork prices to stabilize or even see a slight increase, especially as the peak consumption season approaches in October [11].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine industry, particularly the breeding and production of pigs in China, with insights into market trends, pricing, and regulatory impacts [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Breeding Stock and Production Capacity - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with variations across different scales of farms. Group farms show a slight decrease, while medium-sized farms are experiencing a stable increase. Smallholders show little change [1][2][3]. - Future trends indicate a potential decline in breeding sow inventory, suggesting that production capacity lacks sustained growth momentum [1][9]. Market Weight and Pricing - The average weight of pigs at market is 127.8 kg, a slight decrease from July but an increase compared to the previous year. Group farms and medium-sized farms have seen a decrease in market weight, while smallholders have increased their market weight [10]. - The price of piglets has recently dropped from over 400 RMB to around 330 RMB, but many producers expect a rebound, leading to stable production levels [6]. Regulatory Impact - Stricter environmental policies have been implemented this year, increasing compliance requirements for farms. However, these have not yet led to significant closures or license revocations, allowing most long-term operators to remain in business [7]. - New regulatory measures, such as stricter interprovincial transportation checks, have negatively impacted prices in regions with high supply, such as Guangdong, where prices have dropped significantly [14][15]. Disease and Market Dynamics - The epidemic situation in Guangxi is primarily linked to border areas and ports, with minimal impact on group farm production capacity. The overall epidemic situation has stabilized [16][17]. - The second fattening phase this year is less than last year, driven more by market conditions than policy changes. A concentrated second fattening wave is expected in early October to meet demand for the upcoming festive season [18][19]. Financial Health of Medium-sized Farms - Medium-sized farms are currently in a relatively good financial position, with some maintaining profitability despite increased loan difficulties and environmental scrutiny. This group is crucial for future production capacity [2][22][23]. Future Market Expectations - The fourth-quarter market is expected to be influenced by current weight control measures and the upcoming second fattening phase. Producers are cautious about future price movements, with some indicating a potential reduction in the scale of future fattening due to financial constraints [20][21]. Additional Important Insights - The price of culling sows is closely tied to market prices, with an increase in culling volumes noted in August, particularly among larger farms [12]. - The overall sentiment among producers is cautious, with many not optimistic about significant price increases in the near term due to previous losses and current market conditions [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs showed a rebound and upward trend. The rise in pig prices was mainly due to the tightening of supply at the beginning of the month and the early entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market in May was not obvious, especially the demand was still relatively weak. If secondary fattening faded and large - scale farms started to sell pigs, prices might still fall. - In the futures market, valuation repair and spot drive were the main contradictions in this week's futures trading. With the improvement of market sentiment and the concentrated entry of secondary fattening, the bulls increased their positions, and the futures price broke through the previous resistance level. The report believes that there is still room for the rise of live pig prices, but from a trading perspective, the impact of spot prices is still significant, and once secondary fattening fades, the futures price may be adjusted [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Spot market: The price of live pigs rebounded this week. The reasons were the slowdown of large - scale enterprise sales progress at the beginning of the month, the resistance of farmers to low prices, the reduction of large - weight pig sources, and the entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply - demand contradiction in May was not obvious, and if secondary fattening faded, prices might fall. - Futures market: The main contradiction in futures trading was valuation repair and spot drive. With the improvement of market sentiment, the bulls increased their positions, and the futures price rose. There was still room for the rise of live pig prices, but the impact of spot prices was significant, and the rhythm needed to be tracked [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a bullish view, but closely track the spot market and secondary fattening situation due to the recent large increase. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy LH2409 - C - 17700, sell LH2407 - C - 19500, and sell LH2407 - P - 17400 [5]. 3.2 Data Chart & Logical Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country rose steadily, showing a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south. By May 11, the average price of live pigs in different regions had different degrees of increase or decrease. The slowdown of large - scale enterprise sales progress, farmers' reluctance to sell, the reduction of large - weight pig sources, and the entry of secondary fattening all contributed to the price rise [10]. 3.2.2 Changes in Slaughter and Consumption - Slaughter: At the beginning of the month, the sales progress of large - scale enterprises and the willingness of ordinary farmers to sell pigs slowed down, and the supply tightened. The weight of slaughtered pigs decreased, the fat - to - standard price spread widened, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the north increased, resulting in a low completion rate of slaughter enterprises' plans. - Consumption: The frozen product storage rate continued to decline, and the frozen product inventory decreased slightly. Although the slaughter volume also decreased slightly, the apparent demand was still average, and the fresh sales rate of live pigs remained stable. The sales of the白条 market were general, and the terminal demand was weak [11]. 3.2.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the spot price of live pigs rebounded rapidly, and the breeding profit continued to strengthen. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 43.97 yuan/head, an increase of 11.96 yuan/head compared with last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was 96.25 yuan/head, an increase of 22.65 yuan; the profit of selling piglets was 188.62 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.89 yuan/head. The feed price remained stable, and the breeding cost increased, but the increase in pig prices was relatively larger, so the breeding profit showed an improving trend [16]. 3.2.4 Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 565 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan/head compared with last week; the price of 15 - kg piglets was 694 yuan/head, a decrease of 12 yuan/head. The price of piglets showed a weak decline due to the decrease in seasonal replenishment and farmers' resistance, but there was still price support due to the relatively low supply. - Sows: The national price of二元 sows was 1577 yuan/head, remaining stable compared with last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs continued to rise, and farmers' enthusiasm for breeding and replenishment increased. The overall production performance of sows was good [20]. 3.2.5 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - In April, the inventory of reproductive sows increased month - on - month according to different data sources. The increase in the number of reproductive sows was promoted by good breeding profits, with the increase rate of small - scale farmers being greater than that of large - scale enterprises. The number of culled sows decreased, and the overall production performance of sows continued to improve [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today's spot price of live pigs has limited upward momentum, showing a stable and slightly weak trend. The overall futures market is still trading under the pressure of increasing inventory, with short - term futures showing a volatile and weak trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Spot Price and Futures Price - On September 3, 2025, the national average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged. The prices in different regions showed fluctuations, with some regions experiencing price drops. For example, Shandong dropped by 0.17 yuan/kg, and Hebei dropped by 0.13 yuan/kg [3]. - The price of LH2511 was 13,550 yuan, down 45 yuan; LH2601 was 13,915 yuan, up 55 yuan; LH2603 was 13,130 yuan, up 35 yuan [3]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - According to Yongyi data, the monthly live pig slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The weight decline was slower than expected, and secondary fattening was relatively stable [3]. - This week, the average national slaughter weight was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. Group enterprises' progress in completing their tasks was slow, and there was still a shift of production capacity to later periods [3]. 3.3 Market of Piglets - This week, the average market selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from last week. Recently, piglet prices have been continuously declining. Currently, it is the off - season for piglet replenishment, and farmers' demand for piglets has significantly weakened [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The effect of weight reduction in live pig breeding has not been obvious recently. There is still pressure on the spot market, but the process of capacity reduction takes time. Although the spot price has risen in the short term, the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig industry, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease in the future, and the consumption - side improvement is anticipated but with limited impact. Price support mainly relies on the short - term supply gap created by the increase in secondary fattening. The ongoing policy - based procurement has little impact on the market due to the small net procurement volume. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged in the short and long term, though short - term demand boosts may have some influence [2] - For the egg industry, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, with demand improving due to food companies' stocking, tourism and catering consumption, and school opening needs. However, the continuous increase in the number of laying hens in production and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to an oversupply situation, suppressing egg prices. The festival demand boost is weak, and the short - term pattern is difficult to change [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (- 0.83%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.56 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.67 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.43 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg. The corresponding spot basis changed as well [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on August 27: The "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" rose 0.22 points, the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.26 points. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.4% to 19.92 yuan/kg, beef increased by 0.2% to 65.05 yuan/kg, mutton increased by 0.5% to 59.97 yuan/kg, eggs increased by 1.1% to 7.69 yuan/kg, and white - striped chickens remained unchanged at 17.67 yuan/kg [1] Market Analysis - Supply - side pressure is expected to ease, and consumption - side improvement is expected but limited. Price support depends on secondary fattening. Policy - based procurement has little impact, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains stable in the short and long term, with short - term demand boosts having some influence [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 2,975 yuan/500 kg, down 38 yuan (- 1.26%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.71 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan. The corresponding spot basis also changed [3] - On August 27, the national production - link inventory was 0.82 days, down 0.05 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days, unchanged [3] Market Analysis - Entering the pre - festival stocking period, demand has improved, but the continuous increase in laying hens in production and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to an oversupply situation, suppressing prices. The festival demand boost is weak, and the short - term pattern is hard to change [4][5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the pig market, supply pressure is expected to decrease in the future, and there is an obvious expectation of improvement in the consumer side, but the impact may be limited. Price support mainly relies on the short - term supply gap created by the increase in secondary fattening. The current overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with short - term demand boosts having an impact and the long - term pattern difficult to change [2] - For the egg market, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, and demand has improved. However, due to the continuous increase in the number of laying hens in production and the release of cold - stored eggs, supply is in excess, suppressing egg prices, and the short - term pattern is difficult to change [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 13,860 yuan/ton, a change of - 50.00 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous trading day. Spot: In Henan, the price of outer ternary live hogs was 13.48 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.19 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.69 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.53 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.12 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork on August 26 was 20.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - Supply pressure is expected to decrease in the future, and demand improvement is expected, but the impact is limited. Price support depends on secondary fattening. Policy - based purchasing and storage this week had little impact on the market, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3013 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 8.00 yuan (- 0.26%) from the previous trading day. Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.20 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.11; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.73 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.04. On August 26, the production - link inventory was 0.87 days, a decrease of 0.05 days (- 5.43%) from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.05 days (- 4.63%) [3] Market Analysis - Entering the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, demand has improved. However, due to the continuous increase in the number of laying hens in production and the release of cold - stored eggs, supply is in excess, suppressing egg prices, and the short - term pattern is difficult to change [4][5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13910元/吨，较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.67元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-240，较前交易日变动-10；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差LH09-140，较前交易日变动-110；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-260，较前交易日变动+30。 据农业农村部监测，8月25日"农产品批发价格200指数"为115.78，比上周五上升0.25个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为116.23，比上周五上升0.30个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.11元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 65.09元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉60.07元/公斤，比上周五上升0.9%；鸡蛋7.65元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；白 条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Farming Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine farming industry, particularly the impact of production capacity regulation policies on the market dynamics and pricing trends of live pigs [1][3][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends and Influencing Factors** - Pig prices have dropped below 14 yuan, primarily due to the realization of production capacity in Q1 and Q2, with an increase in the number of fattening pigs as a result of accelerated weight reduction and shortened age [2][5]. - The market is expected to see a slight decline in prices in August and September, followed by a potential increase driven by seasonal consumption [2]. 2. **Production Capacity Regulation** - National capacity regulation has significantly impacted the swine industry, especially for large farming companies, effectively controlling the average slaughter weight [3][16]. - Without such regulations, prices could fall due to high slaughter weights and low prices, leading to reduced profitability for farmers [17]. 3. **Weight Reduction Strategies** - Major farming groups, such as Muyuan, have successfully reduced average slaughter weights to around 121 kg, with a target of below 120 kg by the end of August [4]. - The overall weight reduction target completion is approximately 80%, indicating a concerted effort to manage supply levels [4]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Supply Issues** - The supply of fattening pigs has shifted from self-breeding to piglet fattening and secondary fattening, leading to a supply gap due to high costs and losses incurred by farmers [6][11]. - The price difference between standard and fattened pigs is higher than in previous years, attributed to a decrease in self-breeding farmers and insufficient continuous supply of fattened pigs [6]. 5. **Regional Disease Outbreaks** - The southern regions of China are experiencing multiple waves of disease outbreaks, affecting swine populations and contributing to market instability [7]. 6. **Government Policies and Market Confidence** - Recent government policies have positively influenced market confidence, prompting farmers to maintain higher utilization rates of their facilities and prepare for future demand [11]. - Local governments have implemented measures to support production cuts, such as stricter regulations on pig movements and inspections [12][14]. 7. **Future Price Outlook** - The price of live pigs is expected to stabilize and potentially rise in 2026, contingent on the continuation of production capacity reductions [15]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a peak or near-peak price level similar to early July, with a price range between 13 yuan as the upper limit and 13 yuan as the lower limit [6]. Additional Important Insights - There is a notable trend of small and medium-sized farms attempting to expand production despite regulations, often through the rotation of breeding stock to enhance efficiency [12]. - The effectiveness of regulatory measures varies, with larger companies showing better compliance compared to smaller farms that may evade restrictions [16]. - The overall market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply, demand, and regulatory influences, necessitating close monitoring of industry trends and government actions [11][17].

表现强于9月合约，站上万四关口，操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14100 | 90 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 59598 | 626 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 380 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -18400 | -209 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元 ...