Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Individual metal品种ratings are as follows: gold - high - level adjustment; silver - high - level adjustment; copper - rebound under pressure; zinc - rebound under pressure; lead - under pressure; tin - under pressure; aluminum - under pressure; nickel - weak; industrial silicon - correction; polysilicon - correction; lithium carbonate - cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping. Silver follows gold and basic metals in adjustment, with long - term upward trend intact. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum prices are under pressure due to various factors such as inventory changes and supply - demand imbalances. Nickel price is weak, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in correction. Lithium carbonate has a cautiously bullish outlook with potential for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Metal (Gold and Silver) Gold - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Short - term tariff risks are reduced, but long - term factors like weak dollar trend, loose monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases support long - term strategic allocation [1] - **Price range**: [765 - 784] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on support around 765, long - term trend remains unchanged [3] Silver - **Core view**: High - level adjustment [1] - **Logic**: Follows gold and basic metals in adjustment. Economic demand supports, and long - term upward trend is intact due to fiscal stimulus for industrial demand [1] - **Price range**: [9050 - 9350] [1] - **Strategy**: Focus on 9050 support, treat as short - term adjustment [3] Group 4: Summary by Metal (Copper) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Overseas inventory accumulation, potential US copper import tariff, and high electrolytic copper production drag down prices. However, long - term supply shortage and strategic importance support long - term bullish view [1][5] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper [78000, 79500], London copper [9700, 9850] dollars/ton [1][6] - **Strategy**: Wait for price to stabilize and then look for buying opportunities at low prices [6] Group 5: Summary by Metal (Zinc) - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Abundant supply in 2025, increased domestic smelting capacity, and weak demand during off - season lead to price pressure [1][8] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc [22500, 23000], London zinc [2700, 2900] dollars/ton [1][9] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [9] Group 6: Summary by Metal (Aluminum) - **Core view**: Under pressure [1] - **Logic**: Domestic consumption is weak, with inventory accumulation and declining downstream processing industry's operating rate. Alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][10][11] - **Price range**: Shanghai aluminum [20000 - 20800] [11] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes [11] Group 7: Summary by Metal (Nickel) - **Core view**: Weak [1] - **Logic**: Uncertain overseas environment, potential high tariffs on Russian nickel, and weak domestic supply - demand situation with inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1][12][13] - **Price range**: [120000 - 123000] [13] - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, pay attention to inventory changes [13] Group 8: Summary by Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Logic**: Supply disruptions exist, and the expected annual surplus is reduced. However, beware of price fluctuations due to market sentiment [1][14][15] - **Price range**: [77000 - 80000] [15] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see [15]

Group 1 - The Eurozone PMI rose to an 11-month high in July, indicating a mixed economic outlook with services expanding while manufacturing remains in contraction [1][2] - The July composite PMI increased from 50.6 in June to 51.0, suggesting a slight recovery in demand, particularly in the services sector [2][3] - Manufacturing output in the Eurozone saw a significant increase in May, driven by a 27.7% rise in pharmaceutical production, although this growth was concentrated in Ireland [2][4] Group 2 - The German composite PMI stood at 50.3, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2 and services PMI at 50.1, indicating a fragile economic environment [3][4] - France's composite PMI rose to 49.6 but remained below the critical threshold of 50, marking 11 consecutive months of decline, influenced by political controversies [3][4] - Spain's services sector continued to lead with a PMI above 54, while Ireland's manufacturing PMI increased to 53.7, although its services sector showed signs of slowing [3][4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained key interest rates amid economic uncertainty and rising tariff risks, with the deposit facility rate at 2.00% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15% [4][5] - The ECB's monetary policy decisions are heavily influenced by trade-related uncertainties, which are affecting business and consumer behavior [4][5] - The Eurozone's GDP growth for Q2 was reported at 0.6%, with future growth dependent on upcoming economic indicators and the outcome of tariff negotiations [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - Zinc: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - Lead: Bounce under pressure [1] - Tin: Bounce under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bounce under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bounce under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - Some tariffs have been implemented, reducing the safe-haven sentiment, leading to an adjustment in gold and silver prices. However, the strong long-term support factors for gold, such as a weak US dollar, interest rate cuts, debt issuance, and central bank gold purchases, still exist [2] - The copper market is affected by a rebound in the US dollar index, with high-level consolidation. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [5] - The zinc market faces supply surplus and demand weakness during the off-season, with prices under pressure. Long-term, there are opportunities to short on rallies [8] - The aluminum market is pressured by inventory accumulation, and the price rebound is limited. Alumina also shows a similar trend [11] - The nickel market is suppressed by supply factors, and the price is under pressure. Stainless steel also faces inventory pressure during the off-season [13] - The lithium carbonate market is influenced by supply disruptions, and the price remains strong. Low-buying strategies are recommended [14] Summary by Variety Gold - **Core view**: High-level adjustment, long-term strategic allocation [1] - **Main logic**: Short-term tariff risks have landed, reducing the risk and causing a price adjustment. However, Powell's pressure, a medium-term weak US dollar trend, and loose monetary policies of multiple countries, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support long-term investment [1] - **Price range**: 770 - 794 [1] Silver - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Supported by economic demand, with increased industrial and physical demand due to loose fiscal policies. Short-term, it is affected by gold's adjustment sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 9250 - 9550 [1] Copper - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term optimistic [1] - **Main logic**: The US dollar index rebounds, and domestic social copper inventories have decreased seasonally. In the long term, the tight global copper ore supply and its strategic importance support a positive outlook [1][6] - **Price range**: Shanghai copper 78500 - 80500; London copper 9700 - 10000 USD/ton [7] Zinc - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure, long-term supply increase and demand decrease [1] - **Main logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and new smelting capacity is being released. Demand is weak during the off-season [9] - **Price range**: Shanghai zinc 22600 - 23200; London zinc 2750 - 2950 USD/ton [10] Lead - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Affected by maintenance in domestic primary lead smelters and increased losses in secondary lead enterprises, with high social inventories [1] - **Price range**: 16500 - 17200 [1] Tin - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State tin mines during the rainy season, with weak supply and demand in the domestic market and inventory accumulation [1] - **Price range**: 265000 - 273000 [1] Aluminum - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Disturbance from overseas bauxite news, inventory accumulation in domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods, and weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11] - **Price range**: 20500 - 21000 [1] Nickel - **Core view**: Bounce under pressure [1] - **Main logic**: Stable overseas nickel ore prices, slowdown in downstream stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation during the off-season [1][13] - **Price range**: 122000 - 124000 [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The market is strongly influenced by policies, with an increase in southwest开工率 and stable demand [1] - **Price range**: 9600 - 10000 [1] Polysilicon - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Main logic**: The "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, with little change in fundamentals and positive market sentiment [1] - **Price range**: 51000 - 56000 [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: Bullish [1] - **Main logic**: Little change in fundamentals, sensitive to positive news, and influenced by supply disruptions. Technical indicators are strong [1][15] - **Price range**: 75000 - 80000 [1]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that tariffs, market dynamics, and geopolitical risks continue to pose significant threats to global credit conditions [1] Group 1: Tariffs - The imposition of tariffs has led to increased costs for businesses, impacting their profitability and credit ratings [1] - Ongoing trade tensions between major economies are expected to exacerbate these tariff-related challenges [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Market volatility has been heightened due to economic uncertainties, affecting investor confidence and credit availability [1] - Companies are facing challenges in maintaining stable cash flows amid fluctuating market conditions [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to an unpredictable business environment, which can lead to credit downgrades for affected companies [1] - The potential for conflict or instability in key regions remains a concern for global credit markets [1]

一项最新调查显示，尽管关税给企业前景蒙上阴影，但美国股市本季度将受到企业盈利的提振，强劲的盈利表现足以盖过贸易政策带来的风险。 根据彭博最新的Markets Pulse调查，近三分之二的受访者认为，在未来几周财报季全面展开时，股票的波动性调整后回报将优于美国国债。这项 于7月10日至17日对102名市场参与者进行的调查指出，对股市的积极展望继续由科技行业支撑，受访者预计该行业将在本轮财报季中表现最为强 劲。 美股第二季度财报季刚刚拉开序幕，但标普500指数的盈利预期已经好于分析师的初步预测。在财报季开始前，华尔街预测盈利增长仅为2.8%， 是自2023年年中以来的最慢增速。但随着银行业公布稳健的业绩，整体盈利增长预估已小幅上调至3%以上。 截止发稿，标普500小幅上涨至6309点。 科技巨头或将继续引领美股盈利上涨 本次财报季前景的核心，是科技巨头与其他公司之间日益扩大的业绩差距。数据显示，在人工智能需求的强劲推动下，Mag7的利润增长预计将达 到近15%。与此形成鲜明对比的是，标普500指数中其余493家公司的利润增长预计将"几乎为零"。 富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案公司副首席投资官Max Gokhman在接 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's European equity investment head, Helen Jewell, indicates that European corporate earnings have reasonably factored in tariff risks, suggesting that the current market uptrend can continue as long as there are no significant trade shocks [1] Group 1: Earnings Outlook - European corporate earnings forecasts have been adjusted downwards, but this is not a sign of blind optimism in the market [1] - The market still has upward potential as long as European exporters continue to perform well [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Jewell's perspective contrasts sharply with that of strategists from Goldman Sachs, who warn that the stock market appears overly optimistic given the ongoing trade uncertainties as the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline approaches [1]

Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US-Vietnam trade agreement reduced punitive tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US from 46% to 20%, while a 40% tariff will be imposed on products transiting through Vietnam from China[5][6] - Vietnam's exports to the US reached $70.91 billion in the first half of 2025, with a trade surplus of $62 billion, marking a 29.1% year-on-year increase[6] Regional Competition and Economic Shifts - Southeast Asian countries like Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, potentially including similar transit trade tax clauses[2][5] - The competition among emerging Southeast Asian economies will shift from "tariff differences" to domestic demand potential and technological density[3][12] Challenges for Vietnam - Vietnam faces pressure to fill domestic industrial gaps and explore new trade routes, with stronger domestic demand in Indonesia and a more complete industrial chain in Malaysia[5][12] - The reliance on low-value exports to the US may weaken Vietnam's economic growth momentum, as domestic consumption and investment play limited roles[9][10] Risks and Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of future trade agreements may lead to a shift in traditional assembly and transit models, pressuring Vietnam's local industries[3][11] - If Thailand and Malaysia secure lower tax rates in negotiations with the US, Vietnam's short-term competitive advantages may diminish[12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].

咱来聊聊美股为啥能创新高。首先得夸夸英伟达，这家公司最近简直是"AI芯片界的霸主"，黄仁勋前脚刚宣布恢复对华H20芯片的销售，后脚股价就蹭蹭 往上涨，市值直接冲破4.2万亿美元。不过有个细节得注意，黄仁勋最近在减持，虽然是按照预设计划进行，但这么大的动作还是得留个心眼。 各位朋友，咱们又见面了。最近美股市场可是相当热闹，纳指和标普500齐刷刷创下历史新高，连英伟达的市值都突破了4.2万亿美元，相当于A股整个半 导体板块的总市值。这场景，就像一场高手过招的棋局，表面上风平浪静，实则暗流涌动。 先给大家盘盘昨夜的关键事儿。美国众议院通过了加密货币法案，这可是给数字货币市场打了一剂强心针。不过另一边，穆迪敲响了警钟，说关税风险 可能让更多公司逼近违约。再看Netflix，第二季度营收110.79亿美元，虽说超了预期，但股价盘后还是跌了，看来市场对它的未来增长有点疑虑。 国际油价最近因地缘风险和供应趋紧涨了不少，但金价却跌了，黄金现货下跌0.23%。这说明市场的避险情绪在降温，但同时也反映出大家对经济复苏的 预期在增强。 作为中长线投资者，咱们得把眼光放长远。首先，要关注企业的财报质量，尤其是那些在关税压力下还能保持 ...

穆迪：关税风险导致更多公司逼近违约。 ...