热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周一开盘后，碳酸锂主力合约快速拉涨停，价格站上15万以上高点，截至发稿前仍未开板。上周五，财 政部发布调整光伏等产品出口退税政策公告，自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值 税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税，名录中涉及正极材 料、六氟磷酸锂、锂电池等环节，一季度或交易出现抢出口预期，需求或呈现淡季不淡的格局。在需求 没有证伪的前提下，短期碳酸锂盘面或维持强势，重点观察上游涨价对下游传导是否顺利。 基本面来看，碳酸锂周度产量环比增加115吨至22535吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加35吨至13959吨，锂 云母产量环比增加20吨至2956吨，盐湖提锂环比增加40吨至3185吨，回收料提锂环比增加20吨至2435 吨。周度库存环比增加337吨至109942吨，其中下游环比下降2458吨至36540吨，其他环节增加2080吨至 55020吨，上游环比增加715吨至18382吨。供需面边际转弱，去库节奏转为累库，六氟磷酸锂价格自高 位回落10%。然而，产业定价机制如若调整顺畅，则涨价可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged past 150,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the lithium sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, all lithium carbonate futures contracts were locked, with the main contract 2605 rising by 9% to 156,100 yuan per ton [2]. - The current market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate ranges from 141,500 to 154,800 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 8,550 yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [3]. - This policy may influence the export rhythm of downstream battery companies, potentially leading to a "rush to export" behavior before the tax rate adjustment [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - The lithium battery industry has experienced two significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with lithium carbonate prices peaking at 180,000 yuan per ton in 2019 before dropping to 48,000 yuan per ton by the end of that year [6][7]. - The second wave of price fluctuations began in 2020, with prices reaching nearly 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 due to high demand and profit margins, followed by a sharp decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton amid oversupply [7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since mid-September 2025, lithium carbonate prices have nearly doubled, driven by multiple factors including regulatory signals and production issues in key mining regions [8][9]. - The demand for lithium carbonate has exceeded expectations, particularly in the traditional peak seasons, with significant growth in the energy storage sector [9][10]. - Recent increases in operating rates among phosphate lithium enterprises have further boosted demand, leading to a temporary supply shortage and ongoing inventory depletion [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face fluctuations due to simultaneous upstream maintenance and the traditional off-peak season from late January to February [10]. - The adjustment of the export tax policy may add uncertainty to short-term demand patterns, with potential for continued inventory reduction during the traditional off-peak period [10].

本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There are opportunities for bottom - fishing and long - position layout due to emotional disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit again, with the main contract rising to 156,080 yuan/ton. The current market is driven by the resonance of capital flow and policy changes. Short - term capital risk appetite has risen, and funds have concentrated on upstream resource sectors. The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products has strengthened the market's expectation of short - term demand advancement and increased downstream production scheduling [2]. Fundamental Situation - Impact of export tax rebate adjustment: In the short term, before the tax rebate is gradually reduced, there is an incentive for battery and related products to be exported in advance, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate and its price. In the long term, the complete cancellation of the tax rebate will increase enterprise costs and compress profit margins, and the long - term impact is more reflected in the improvement of industry concentration and the acceleration of global layout [3]. - Supply side: There is still a risk of short - term supply tightness. Domestic policies and overseas fluctuations need to be noted. Domestic policies may affect short - term supply rhythms, and geopolitical and resource policies in Mali and South America have increased the market's expectation of overseas supply instability [3]. - Demand side: The marginal demand for lithium carbonate has weakened at the current stage, but the long - term expectation is still optimistic, especially the demand on the energy storage side is relatively stable. In the short term, the concentrated maintenance of some leading cathode material enterprises is expected to suppress the demand in January, but the expected cathode production scheduling in January has been revised upwards, and the actual demand is better than expected [3]. - Inventory side: The previous continuous destocking of lithium carbonate has ended, and there was a shift from destocking to stockpiling last week. As of January 9, the social inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 337 tons. The slight inventory accumulation is in line with the logic of the phased decline in demand, and the downstream inventory replenishment demand still exists, with limited impact on prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - Although the inventory of lithium carbonate has slightly accumulated, short - term demand is still resilient. The expectation of pre - export by downstream enterprises before the adjustment of the export tax rebate, concerns about overseas resource fluctuations, and the increase in capital risk appetite support the price of lithium. The long - term demand expectation is also optimistic [4].

华泰证券认为，本次电池出口退税下调为阶梯式下调，给予了锂电产业缓冲期，该行认为电池企业将在 26年4月1日前/26年12月31日前出现两轮抢出口。此外，该行认为出口退税率下调有望抬升对应商品的 海外价格，海外产能不受出口退税率下调影响，有望受益于海外价格的提升，增厚公司盈利。看好已有 海外产能布局的头部电池厂。 宁德时代(03750)跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.06%，报477.2港元，成交额6.75亿港元。 消息面上，自12月初以来，碳酸锂价格势如破竹，短短一个月内接连突破10万元、11万元、12万元、13 万元、14万元及15万元关卡。今早，碳酸锂期货主力合约封住涨停，涨幅9%，报156060元/吨，较去年 六月低点反弹逾150%。财政部、税务总局1月9日发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》。 其中指出，自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%； 2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 来源：智通财经网 ...

川观新闻记者 彭瑀珩 来源：川观新闻 【未经授权，严禁转载！联系电话028-86968276】 1月12日，国内商品期货市场开盘迎来强势表现，碳酸锂主力合约直接封死涨停，涨幅9%，报156060 元/吨，两年来首次突破15万元关口。市场观点认为，这一行情与出口退税政策调整引发的下游抢装需 求密切相关。 | 碳酸锂2605 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ic2605 | | | | | | 高 156060 振幅 2.84% 156060 152000 | 昨结 143180 | | 量 65780 持仓 50.88万 | | | 12880 9.00% 开 156060 | 今结 | | 日增 -2076 | | | 相关ETF(?) | 有色ETF大成 2.120 1.63% | | | | | 同在顺 异动解读:取消出口退税,一季度抢出 ... ● × | | | | | | 博诺 | | | | | | 日 日 K 周K 月K 五日 更多 ▼ 分时 | | | | (0) | | 均价:156034 最新:156060 12880 +9% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of China's export tax - rebate policy will likely lead to a phased rush of container shipments before April 1, 2026, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts, and the market may show a positive arbitrage logic [4][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled; for battery products, the VAT export tax - rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and cancelled from January 1, 2027 [2] Impact Assessment - **Product Scope**: Affected products include photovoltaic and battery - related products, as well as chemical raw materials and products, plastic PVC and polymers, kitchenware, ceramic products, silicone, cement, glass products, etc [3][9] - **Export Situation**: From January to November, China's photovoltaic module export volume was 227GW, with 81.7GW exported to Europe, accounting for 35.96%. China's battery export volume was 98.7GW, a year - on - year increase of 84.8%, and nearly 90% was exported to non - European and American countries [4][9] - **Shipping Impact**: Most affected products are transported by containers. Routes to Europe, the Middle East, South America, and India - Pakistan may be more affected. Before April 1, a phased rush of container shipments is expected, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts [4][20]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The US non-farm employment population increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [18] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [18] - The Federal Reserve report indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November [18] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply sentiment, supported by the ongoing strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile [19] - January electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [19] - In November, net imports of refined copper decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [19] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of January 9, global visible copper inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 961,000 tons, with LME inventory decreasing by 8,450 tons to 138,975 tons [19] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 34,900 tons week-on-week to 273,800 tons, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [19] - The copper price has risen again, but downstream enterprises are purchasing cautiously, focusing on essential needs [19] Group 4: Policy Impact on Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% [20] - The market anticipates a rush to export in the first quarter, which may temporarily boost demand for certain commodities, making it difficult for prices to sustain a downward trend [20] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival, with a focus on feedback regarding the new policy [20]

Macro - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products on January 9, aimed at reducing trade friction and supporting industrial upgrades, which may bolster export growth for related products in Q1 2026 [1][6] - The PPI in December 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, while the CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching +0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI remaining at a high of +1.2%, aligning with market expectations [1][9] Battery Industry - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products is seen as a measure to prevent "involution" and enhance the profitability of export products, with a structured decline in tax rates and a transition period [2][11] - The tax rebate for battery products will decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and will be eliminated entirely from January 1, 2027, affecting lithium-ion batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries [11][12] - The estimated impact on export tax rebates is approximately $22 million for 2026 and $66 million for 2027, with the potential for a "rush to export" scenario due to the structured decline in tax rates [12][13] - The policy is expected to favor Chinese battery companies with overseas production capacity, enhancing their global competitiveness and market share [2][12][13] Trade Policy - Mexico's recent tariff adjustments are primarily aimed at countries like China and South Korea, affecting about 45% of China's exports to Mexico, which could impact overall Chinese exports by approximately 1% [3][4] - The tariff adjustments are interpreted as a gesture towards the U.S., indicating potential follow-up actions from other developed economies, particularly Canada, in response to U.S. trade policy [4][5]

中信证券研报指出，墨西哥宣布从2026年1月1日开始，对没有和墨西哥签署自由贸易协定的国家加征关 税。我们认为此次墨西哥加征关税主要受影响国家为中国和韩国为代表的亚洲经济体。我们测算墨西哥 加征关税覆盖的商品约占中国对墨西哥出口的45%左右，大约影响中国整体出口约1%的商品。墨西哥 此次关税调整可以看作是向美国纳"投名状"，提示关注其他发达经济体尤其是加拿大受美国影响跟进调 整对华关税的可能性。从行业层面看，综合考虑对墨西哥出口敞口和加征关税税率，我们预计我国汽车 产业链、贱金属制品、机械设备出口可能相对受影响较大。财政部、国家税务总局1月9日发布公告调整 光伏、电池产品出口退税政策，我们认为这是出于减少贸易摩擦以及产业升级需要，或对2026年一季度 相关商品出口增速构成一定支撑，预计化学品、塑料制品、服装、机械和电气产品等在未来可能会有跟 进调整出口退税的措施。宏观经济运行方面，2025年12月PPI表现略超市场预期，CPI同比连续4个月回 升至+0.8%，核心CPI同比维持在+1.2%的高位，基本符合市场预期。本周市场关注12月中国物价数据， 下周建议关注中国12月金融数据和进出口数据。 ...