Group 1: Oil Price Overview - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, oil prices have generally increased, influenced by a trade agreement between the US and Europe, and concerns over tightening supply due to potential sanctions on Russian oil buyers [2][3] - Brent crude futures settled at $69.67 per barrel, up $2.01 per barrel (+2.97%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $67.33 per barrel, up $2.17 per barrel (+3.33%) [1][2] Group 2: Oil Supply and Demand in the US - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels per day, an increase of 41,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 5 to 410 rigs as of August 1, 2025, while the number of hydraulic fracturing fleets decreased by 1 to 167 [3] - US refinery crude processing volume was 16.911 million barrels per day, down 25,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 95.40%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [3] Group 3: US Oil Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, total US crude oil inventory increased by 7.936 million barrels (+0.97%) to 829 million barrels, with strategic oil inventory rising by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%) and commercial crude inventory increasing by 7.698 million barrels (+1.84%) [3] - Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory rose by 690,000 barrels (+3.16%) to 22.553 million barrels [3] Group 4: Related Companies - Relevant companies in the oil sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

公开数据显示，7月Brent、WTI月均价分别为69.5、67.2美元/桶，环比分别下降0.4%、0.7%；库存端，截至7月25日当周，美国商业原油库存量 42669万桶，较6月底增加774万桶。 银河证券还指出，近期地缘不确定事件叠加消费旺季给予油价底部支撑，但远期累库预期限制油价上行高度；中期来看，原油消费需求与全球经 济走向密切相关。IMF7月发布《世界经济展望报告》，预计2025年和2026年世界经济将分别增长3.0%和3.1%，较今年4月预测值分别上调0.2和0.1 个百分点。据此预计近期Brent原油价格将在68-72美元/桶区间震荡运行。（闻辉） 【环球网财经综合报道】日前，"欧佩克+"同意9月大幅增产石油，提前一年完成当前供应恢复计划，以夺回全球原油市场份额。其代表称，沙特 等伙伴视频会议达成一致，9月增产约54.8万桶/日，将完全逆转2023年8国220万桶/日减产，含阿联酋额外配额。 对此银河证券撰文分析认为，7月5日OPEC+八个主要成员国计划8月份增产石油54.8万桶/日，为该组织连续4个月宣布增产计划，驱动全球原油供 应预期上移。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $71.6/$68.5 per barrel, up $2.8/$2.7 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively. US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs was 410 this week, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of active US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week. US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery crude oil utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $92/$101/$90 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/ - $2.0/ - $4.1 per barrel respectively. The price spreads with crude oil were $20/$30/$19 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of +$0.6/ - $4.3/ - $6.3 per barrel respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week - on - week change of - 2.72/ + 3.64/ - 2.11 million barrels respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production was 10.04/5.21/1.87 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +680,000/+130,000/ - 10,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption was 9.15/3.61/2.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +190,000/+260,000/+410,000 barrels per day respectively. US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 120,000/890,000/770,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 40,000/+170,000/+200,000 barrels per day respectively; US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 230,000/1.31 million/1.09 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +110,000/ - 120,000/ - 230,000 barrels per day respectively; US jet fuel imports, exports, and net exports were 60,000/150,000/80,000 barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 90,000/ - 110,000/ - 30,000 barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - **Upstream Key Company Price Movements**: This section presents the price, price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple upstream companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, along with their market capitalization and valuation data [8]. - **Crude Oil Price**: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $71.6, $68.5, $67.2, and $67.8 per barrel respectively, with week - on - week increases of $2.8, $2.7, $2.3, and $2.9 per barrel respectively. The LME copper spot price was $9,165 per ton, down $653.5 week - on - week, and the US dollar index was 100, up 2.6 week - on - week [8]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 7.94/7.7/0.24/0.69 million barrels respectively [2][8]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production was 13.31 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week - on - week. The number of US crude oil rigs was 410, down 5 week - on - week, and the number of US fracturing fleets was 168, down 1 week - on - week [2][8]. - **Refinery Data**: US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.91 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, down 0.1 pct week - on - week. The utilization rate of Chinese local refineries was 51.0%, up 0.95 pct, and that of Chinese major refineries was 84.0%, up 0.05 pct [8]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.14/2.7/3.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of +160,000/ - 1.16 million/+1.32 million barrels per day respectively [2][8]. - **Product Oil Data**: It includes the price, price spread, inventory, production, consumption, and import/export data of product oils in the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [9]. - **Oilfield Services Data**: The weekly average daily rates of offshore jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms are provided [9]. 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - **Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance**: No specific performance data is provided in the given content, only the section title is mentioned [11]. - **Performance of Sector Listed Companies**: The price, market capitalization, and price changes in the recent week, month, three - month, one - year periods, and year - to - date price changes of multiple listed companies in the sector are presented, along with their valuation data [22][23]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Crude Oil Price**: Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price [28][30][40]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Discusses the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly drawdown rate of US commercial crude oil inventory and the change rate of Brent oil prices, and presents the data of US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [43][44][53]. - **Crude Oil Supply**: Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets, as well as their relationship with oil prices [57][59][61]. - **Crude Oil Demand**: Presents US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and the utilization rates of Chinese local and major refineries [65][69][72]. - **Crude Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes US crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and the import/export and net import data of crude oil and petroleum products [76][81]. 3.4 Product Oil Sector Data Tracking - **Product Oil Price**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel retail prices, and presents the prices and price spreads of product oils in different regions such as the US, China, Europe, and Singapore [87][114][120]. - **Product Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventory data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore [127][131][137]. - **Product Oil Supply**: Presents the production data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [143][145][146]. - **Product Oil Demand**: Presents the consumption data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, as well as the number of US airport passenger screenings [149][150][156]. - **Product Oil Import and Export**: Analyzes the import/export and net export data of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US [161][166][167]. 3.5 Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Presents the average daily rates of jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the oilfield services industry [175][180].

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 225 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's forecast, translating to an increase of 0.17-0.20 yuan per liter, which exceeds the upper limit for price hikes [1] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with U.S. crude oil dropping below $70 per barrel, closing at $69.36 per barrel after a decline of 1.34% [4] - Brent crude oil also fell by 1.36%, closing at $71.74 per barrel, with current prices at $69.27 per barrel, reflecting a further decrease of 0.13% [4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a surprising rise in core PCE inflation to 2.8%, has impacted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced oil demand [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The following are the expected fuel prices in various regions: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.23 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 7.22 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.68 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.48 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.89 yuan, and diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 10.06 yuan, and diesel at 6.99 yuan [5]

每经AI快讯，7月30日，美国上周EIA原油库存增加769.8万桶，预期减少128.8万桶，前值减少316.9万 桶。 ...

EIA报告：美国库欣原油库存创3月28日以来最大增幅。 ...

美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示，美国上周EIA原油库存增加770万桶，分析师预期减少197.933万桶，之 前一周下降316.9万桶。 ...

美国至7月25日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of the peak season, crude oil demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to new macro and geopolitical positives [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: The JMMC meeting did not make suggestions on OPEC's production policy. Attention should be paid to whether the eight countries will continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day. Trump set a new 10 - 12 - day deadline for Russia. If no agreement is reached, secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russian oil. From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. The sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US needs further observation. OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the withdrawal of the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6][7] 2. Industry News - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member states to fully comply with quotas. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery action [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with different data sources such as wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]