Core Viewpoint - The ninth Pacific Tuna Forum will be held on October 14-15 in Fiji, organized by the Papua New Guinea National Fisheries Authority, the Fiji Fisheries Department, and INFOFISH, providing a significant platform for stakeholders in the tuna industry to discuss key issues and opportunities in the region [1] Group 1: Event Details - The forum is expected to attract over 200 participants from the public sector, private institutions, and non-governmental organizations across the Asia-Pacific region and globally [1] - Key topics of discussion will include tuna resource management in the Pacific region, market and marketing opportunities for tuna products, international trade and trade barriers, new product development, and investment prospects in the regional tuna industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that the decision on whether to reach a trade agreement with India ultimately lies with President Trump [1] Group 1 - The discussion around U.S.-India trade relations is ongoing, with significant implications for both economies [1] - The outcome of the trade negotiations could impact various sectors, including technology and manufacturing [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, there were frequent international trade news, and the growth of oilseed crops was generally normal. The soybean market was affected by US trade negotiations and domestic policies, while the rapeseed meal market was influenced by Canadian production adjustments and the resumption of Australian rapeseed imports [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (6.30 - 7.29) - **External Market**: The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1011.25, with a decline of 1.49%; the December contract of US soybean meal closed at 279.4, with a decline of 3.12%; the July contract of ICE rapeseed closed at 723.1 CAD/ton, with an increase of 3.33% [7] - **Domestic Market**: The latest price of soybean meal 2509 was 2977, with an increase of 1.19%; the latest price of rapeseed meal 2509 was 2635, with an increase of 3.01% [7] II. Soybean Meal Market Overview 2.1 International Supply and Demand - **Trade Negotiations**: In July, the US was in a period of intensive trade negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced economic and trade talks with China in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The US has been negotiating "reciprocal tariffs" and multilateral trade frameworks with many countries [16] - **Crop Conditions**: As of July 27, the soybean flowering rate was 76%, the pod - setting rate was 41%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 70%. About 8% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 22 [17][18] - **Supply from South America**: Brazil's soybean supply is sufficient before September. Anec slightly lowered the estimated soybean exports in July to 12.11 million tons and raised the estimated soybean meal exports to 2.4 million tons. Argentina increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 50.9 million tons [19] - **US Exports**: As of July 17, 2024/25 US soybean cumulative sales were 50.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.67 million tons. The 2025/26 US soybean weekly net export sales were 238,800 tons, lower than market expectations [19] 2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Trade Talks and Policies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden at the end of July were undecided. In July, China lowered the import tariff on US soybeans back to 3%. August is a crucial month for US soybean production and exports to China [25] - **Price and Import**: On July 24, domestic soybean meal prices plummeted due to multiple factors. China's soybean imports in June reached a record high of 12.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. In the first six months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, while imports of US soybeans increased by 33% [25][26][27] III. Rapeseed Meal Market Overview 3.1 International Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Canadian Supply**: In July, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 17.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be 6 million tons, a decrease of 36.8% from the previous year [35] - **Australian Supply**: Around July 18, Australia and China were close to reaching an agreement to allow Australia to export 15 - 25 tons of experimental rapeseed to China, restarting the trade after a 5 - year hiatus [38] - **Global Forecast**: The USDA's WASDE report in July estimated the global rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 89.54 million tons [38] 3.2 Domestic Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Inventory and Price**: As of July 25, the basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was - 155 yuan/ton. The 2509 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was about 350 yuan/ton, and the 2601 spread was about 650 yuan/ton, returning to a reasonable level [51] - **Policy and Trade**: Since 2024, Sino - Canadian trade frictions have affected the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. In June 2025, China allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal and rapeseed meal [51][53]

Core Points - Jennifer Nordquist has been appointed as the new Deputy Director-General of the WTO, effective October 1, 2025, succeeding Angela Ellard [1][3] - Nordquist is currently an advisor on the White House Economic Council and has extensive experience in economic and policy strategy [1][3] - The appointment reflects the U.S. commitment to personnel and capacity building within the WTO, despite previous discussions about the U.S. potentially withdrawing from the organization [1][5] Group 1: Appointment Details - Nordquist holds a Master's degree in Journalism from Northwestern University and a Bachelor's degree in Psychology and Communication from Stanford University [3] - She has previously served as a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Executive Director for U.S. Affairs at the World Bank, and Chief of Staff and Deputy Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution [3] - The WTO currently has four Deputy Directors-General, with the other three continuing their terms for another four years [3] Group 2: Angela Ellard's Contributions - Angela Ellard has been the Deputy Director-General since June 2021 and has played a significant role in areas such as dispute resolution, trade remedies, market access, and ongoing fisheries subsidy negotiations [3][4] - Ellard has been recognized for her core contributions to major trade policy developments over the past 30 years, including her influence on the USMCA [4] Group 3: U.S. Ambassador to WTO - The U.S. Senate Finance Committee has approved the nomination of Joseph Barloon as the U.S. Ambassador to the WTO, with a vote of 14 in favor and 13 against [5] - Barloon has a background in international trade law and previously served as the U.S. Trade Representative's General Counsel [5][6] - The nomination process faced criticism from Democratic leaders regarding past trade policies under the Trump administration [5][6]

Group 1 - South Korea has unexpectedly shifted its stance in handling China-US relations, imposing anti-dumping duties on China while showing intentions to engage in Taiwan Strait issues [1][3] - The cancellation of the scheduled US-Korea "2+2" economic talks did not deter the South Korean economic delegation from pursuing tariff negotiations, indicating a strong commitment to international trade cooperation [1][3] - South Korea's Ministry of Trade decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates and single-mode optical fibers from China, aiming to protect domestic industries during formal investigations [3][4] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and South Korea is closely intertwined, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by South Korea could disrupt normal trade and cooperation between the two countries [4][6] - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending, the likelihood of direct involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs remains low, although vigilance is necessary due to potential trade-offs with the US [6] - China has expressed strong opposition to any actions that sacrifice its interests for US concessions, indicating readiness to take decisive measures to protect its rights in the international trade environment [6]

Group 1 - The US-Japan tariff agreement represents a significant advancement in economic and trade relations, with Japan committing to procure billions of dollars in defense equipment annually [1] - Japan's procurement decision is based on its established defense force enhancement plan, indicating a commitment to strengthening its national defense capabilities [1] - The agreement is expected to increase Japan's annual procurement amount by approximately $3 billion, equivalent to about 440 billion yen, reflecting efforts to improve trade relations with the US [1] Group 2 - Japan will immediately increase rice imports from the US by 75% and raise the total procurement of agricultural products like soybeans and corn to $8 billion, approximately 1.2 trillion yen [2] - The agreement acknowledges US safety standards for the automotive industry, potentially providing new opportunities and challenges for Japanese automakers in the US market [2] Group 3 - The White House spokesperson stated that the negotiations led by former President Trump resulted in an additional investment of $150 billion, bringing the total investment to $550 billion [4] - The reduction of Japan's "reciprocal tariffs" from 25% to 15% was attributed to Japan's innovative financing proposals, with future evaluations of the agreement's execution planned quarterly [5] - The agreement includes a reduction of additional tariffs on automobiles, reflecting a consensus and mutual support in economic cooperation between the US and Japan [5]

Group 1 - The Canadian government's imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel is a reaction to potential U.S. sanctions, revealing a short-sighted strategy [1][3] - Canada has abandoned significant agricultural orders from China in an attempt to appease the U.S., which is seen as a poor trade-off [5][9] - The tariffs have led to increased costs for Canadian steel manufacturers, as they rely on imported raw materials from China, resulting in financial losses [5][11] Group 2 - In response to Canada's tariffs, Australia has capitalized on the situation by increasing agricultural exports to China, benefiting from the shift in trade dynamics [7][13] - The Canadian agricultural sector is facing severe challenges, with farmers struggling to manage excess grain and seeking loan extensions due to financial strain [9][15] - The political fallout in Canada includes significant backlash from farmers and opposition parties, questioning the government's trade strategy and its impact on the economy [15][19] Group 3 - The situation serves as a lesson in international trade, emphasizing the complexity of trade wars and the need for strategic planning [17][19] - Australia has demonstrated a flexible approach to trade, balancing firmness and adaptability, which has allowed it to benefit from the changing market conditions [20][22] - China's response to the tariffs has been strategic, using market dynamics to reinforce its position while supporting alternative partners [17][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the US dollar driven by global economic recovery, improved trade relations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's tightening measures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Global Economic Recovery - From 2023 to 2024, the global economy is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic, with improved trade relations between China and the US contributing to increased trade confidence [3][4]. - The US, as the largest economy, directly influences the demand for the dollar through its trade recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Central banks worldwide are tightening monetary policies in response to inflation pressures, which supports the dollar's strength [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes enhance the dollar's attractiveness and tighten its supply in the international market, further driving its appreciation [3][4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interplay between trade optimism and central bank policies reveals deeper market logic, with the dollar serving as a key reserve and transaction currency amid global uncertainties [4][5]. - The dollar's status as a safe-haven currency remains significant, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks and trade tensions [4][5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar's future strength will depend on various factors, including the pace of global economic recovery and the monetary policies of other major economies [5][6][7]. - Potential challenges to the dollar's dominance may arise from shifts in global capital flows and the internationalization of other currencies like the euro and yuan [6][7].

Core Insights - The report by OECD and FAO forecasts growth in global agricultural and fishery markets over the next decade, although the growth rate is expected to slow down [1][2] Consumption Trends - Agricultural and fish consumption will continue to rise, driven by urbanization and increased income levels in low and middle-income countries, leading to more diverse and nutritious diets [1] - By 2034, the total caloric intake from animal-source foods is projected to increase by 6%, with chicken consumption growing the fastest, followed by beef and pork [1] Production Trends - Agricultural and fishery production is expected to grow, primarily due to productivity improvements, especially in low and middle-income countries [2] - The report anticipates a 16% increase in livestock production and a 12% increase in fishery production over the next decade, with aquaculture being a significant driver [2] International Trade - International trade will play a crucial role in the agricultural and fishery markets, with an expected increase in trade volume to balance global supply and demand [3] - Major meat-exporting countries identified include Brazil, the USA, Argentina, India, Thailand, and Turkey, while China, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Turkey are expected to be significant importers [3] Challenges and Opportunities - The report highlights the need for policymakers to ensure food security and nutrition, promote sustainable agricultural practices, and enhance international cooperation [4] - Addressing risks such as climate change and geopolitical tensions is essential for maintaining stability in agricultural and fishery production [4]