【12月5日美银策略师警告：美联储过度谨慎或危及年末股市涨势】当前标普500指数逼近历史高点，投 资者期待美联储降息伴通胀回落且保持韧性的理想情景。但美银策略师迈克尔·哈内特指出，若美联储 下周会议释放鸽派信号，乐观情绪将受考验，或暗示放缓程度超预期。 哈内特在报告中称，"唯一可能 扼杀'圣诞行情'的，就是鸽派降息引发长期债券抛售"，其指的是长期美国国债。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

美国 银行策略师警告称，若美联储对经济前景持过度谨慎态度，可能危及年末股市的上涨行情。在标 普500指数逼近历史高点之际，投资者正期待最理想情景——即美联储降息伴随通胀回落，同时经济保 持韧性。但美银策略师迈克尔·哈内特指出，若美联储在下周会议上释放鸽派信号，这种乐观情绪将面 临考验，因为这可能暗示经济放缓程度超预期。哈内特在报告中写道："唯一可能扼杀'圣诞行情'的， 就是鸽派降息引发长期债券抛售。"他指的是期限较长的美国国债。 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected decline of 32,000 jobs in the US ADP employment data for November marks the largest drop since March 2023, leading to a surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2] - Following the employment data release, stock index futures rose sharply, while US Treasury yields fell across the board, and the US dollar index dropped below its 50-day moving average, reaching a one-month low [2] - The Russell 2000 index experienced a significant rebound, closing up 1.91%, marking its largest single-day gain in two months, while the S&P 500 regional bank ETF rose by 2.08% [2] Group 2 - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Microsoft shares down 2.5%, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $75 billion, while Tesla shares surged 4% due to reports of potential support for the robotics industry [3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.83%, with notable gains in TSMC ADR and AMD, indicating a recovery in chip stocks [3] - Commodity markets also reacted positively, with copper prices hitting a new historical high, and gold and silver prices rising, reflecting increased risk appetite [3] Group 3 - The bond market fully priced in a December interest rate cut, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.06% and the 2-year yield to 3.49%, indicating a steepening yield curve [4] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.51%, leading to a strengthening of non-US currencies, with the offshore yuan appreciating for the third consecutive day [4] - European markets showed mixed performance, with the STOXX600 index slightly up, while major indices like DAX30 and CAC40 experienced minor fluctuations, reflecting a narrow trading range [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market shows signs of significant slowdown, with the unemployment rate rising and the number of continuing unemployment claims remaining high[1] - The Federal Reserve officials have indicated risks in the labor market, with a call for a 25 basis point rate cut in December to stabilize it[1] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with a probability of 87% for a cut[23] Group 2: Market Trends - The upcoming weeks are expected to see a peak in U.S. corporate buybacks, potentially leading to a "Santa Rally" in December[2] - Interest in the AI sector is shifting from infrastructure to application layers, with less than 10% of U.S. employees currently using AI daily, indicating early-stage penetration[2] - The commercial viability and maturity of AI applications will be key observation points over the next two years[2] Group 3: Risks - A rebound in employment data or stronger-than-expected inflation could lead to a slower pace of policy easing than anticipated[3] - Challenges in the commercialization of AI applications may suppress valuations in related sectors[3]

市场仍在等待引发"圣诞行情"的催化因素。 标普500成分股跌多涨少 ，截至收盘，286只个股收跌，216只上涨，还有一只不跌不涨。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普公开表示计划于2026年初宣布下一任美联储主席的提名，随后还"点名暗示"。鉴于市场已经普遍预期白宫经济 委主任哈塞特将拿到提名，这一情况毫无意外。 对于2025年美股的最终悬念之一——能否在年内站上7000点一事，分析师表示可能还要盘整一下。 Fundstrat的首席技术策略师马克·牛顿表示， 在期待美股立刻再创历史新高之前，市场上涨的宽度仍需要进一步扩大 。他表示："我对12 月持积极观点，但仍认为未来几周市场大概率会呈现一种'反复拉锯'的走势，然后才会再度刷新高点。" 热门股表现 按市值排列，截至周二收盘，英伟达涨0.86%、苹果涨1.09%、谷歌-A涨0.29%、微软涨0.67%、亚马逊涨0.23%、博通跌1.17%、Meta 涨0.97%、台积电涨1.53%、特斯拉跌0.21%、伯克希尔哈撒韦-A跌0.14%、礼来跌1.11%。 昨夜今晨， 随着加密货币市场的企稳回暖，比特币和科技股携手上涨提振交易情绪，三大股指均小幅收涨，部分收复昨日的失地。 截 ...

港股红利逆势上涨，港股红利低波ETF、港股通红利低波ETF、恒生红利低波ETF、港股通红利ETF广 发、恒生红利ETF、港股央企红利50ETF、港股央企红利ETF、港股红利低波ETF、港股通红利低波 ETF、港股红利指数ETF、港股通央企红利ETF南方、港股通红利低波ETF基金涨超1%。 广发证券指出，港股红利在岁末年初日历效应最强，12月-次年1月中旬的阶段获得绝对收益/超额收益 的概率较大、收益率较高。 外资加仓科技，内资加仓红利。根据港交所中央结算系统持股明细数据，最近一周（2025/11/5- 2025/11/11）各类资金合计流入港股市场164亿港元，其中稳定型外资流出139亿港元，灵活型外资流入 69亿港元，港股通流入336亿港元，中国香港或大陆本地资金流出107亿港元。行业层面，最近一周外资 流入软件服务、电气设备、医药生物等较多，港股通流入银行、石油石化、非银金融等较多。 华福证券表示，利率下行周期下，红利高股息的防御性，从资产配置角度而言，红利资产的高股息、低 波动属性能够有效降低投资组合的整体风险水平，优化风险收益比。国内降息周期下的低利率环境、经 济弱复苏的背景均利好红利策略，其中港股红 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 港股周五三大指数延续震荡整理格局，恒生指数与国企指数小幅回落，恒生科 技指数则基本持平，反映指数层面动能偏弱。大市成交金额亦下跌至约 1462 亿元，主板总卖空金额约 172 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额之比率上升至约 13.7%。南向资金流（北水）方面，资金流向比较弱。周五流入净额约 27 亿 元，维持较低水平。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是阿里巴 巴 9988.HK、泡泡玛特 9992.HK、小米集团－W 1810.HK；净卖出最多的是中 芯国际 981.HK、紫金矿业 2899.HK、华虹半导体 1347.HK。 板块方面，新能源相关板块表现突出，锂电及固态电池概念股整体走强，多只 产业链公司股价明显跑赢大市，主要受近日全固态电池的关注度提升有关。据 市场观点，全固态电池有望在 2026 年至 2027 年进入中试关键阶段的利好预 期带动。日前媒体有报道，广汽集团产线已在行业内率先具备了 60 安时以上 车规级全固态电池的批量量产条件。投资者对中长期技术落地与放量前景保持 乐观，资金积极博弈成长空间较大的标的。智能驾驶题材同样升温，无人驾驶 概念 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound after early fluctuations, with all three major indices closing higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.67% to 23025.59 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.43% to 47112.45 points, and the S&P 500 Index recorded a 0.91% increase to 6765.88 points. Market sentiment showed significant improvement, driven by rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and potential major adjustments in the AI industry [1]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - A key factor driving the market's strength is the increasingly clear signal of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently estimates an 82.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, a significant increase from approximately 40% the previous week. This shift was catalyzed by dovish comments from New York Fed President and FOMC Vice Chair John Williams, who indicated that there is still room for rate cuts in the near term [2]. - Historical data suggests that a low interest rate environment typically supports risk assets, especially ahead of the year-end holiday shopping season, leading investors to anticipate a "Santa Claus Rally" [2]. AI Industry Developments - A report about Meta potentially collaborating with Google to use Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) in its data centers has caused significant volatility in tech stocks. Following this news, Google's Class A and C shares rose by 1.53% and 1.62%, respectively, nearing a market capitalization of $4 trillion. However, this potential partnership has put pressure on AI chip leader Nvidia, with concerns that a shift to customized ASIC solutions by major tech companies could weaken demand for general-purpose GPUs. Nvidia's stock fell over 7% at one point, ultimately closing down 2.59% [4]. - Nvidia publicly responded to these concerns, emphasizing the significant advantages of its products in terms of performance, versatility, and substitutability compared to ASICs. The broader implications of this development for other major players in the AI chip industry, such as Microsoft and Amazon, are being closely monitored [4]. Wealth of Tech Giants - The strong performance of tech stocks has significantly increased the personal wealth of Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, with net worths reaching $268.4 billion and $248.8 billion, respectively, making them the second and third richest individuals globally. Google's stock has surged by 73% year-to-date, positioning the company as a standout winner in the AI wave [5]. - Other major tech stocks also saw gains, with Meta rising by 3.78%, Amazon by 1.5%, and Broadcom by 1.87%. Microsoft and Apple experienced slight increases, while Tesla saw a modest rise of 0.39% [5]. - In contrast, Chinese concept stocks displayed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.35%. Notable gainers included autonomous driving company Hesai Technology, which surged by 10.98%, while companies like NIO, Alibaba, and Baidu faced declines ranging from 1% to 4% [5].

上周五，纽约联储主席、美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副主席约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams） 释放了鸽派信号，他预计"短期内"仍有降息空间。LNW首席投资官Ron Albahary表示，"上周五前，美 联储降息的可能性是40%， 现在可能性已经达到80%。我无法预测未来，但目前的趋势指向降息，这将有利于圣诞行情。"日内有 消息称，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特成为下一任美联储主席的热门人选。投资者认为，哈西 特更有可能推动央行采取特朗普支持的低利率政策。 关注我，更多股市资讯告诉你！ 11月26日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 当下，交易员们正在评估美联储降息前景和人工智能领域动态。芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场预 计该行12月会议上降息25个基点的概率为82.7%。 ...