Ales Koutny曾是押注长期日本国债的外国投资者之一，预期日本央行进一步加息将压平收益率曲线， 并推动对长期债券的需求上升。尽管在高市早苗去年10月上台后、日本国债收益率持续攀升的背景下， 仍有不少投资者继续买入，但近期日本国债收益率的再度跳升以及波动率的上行，正在考验投资者的风 险承受能力。 智通财经获悉，此前一直是日本政府债券最坚定多头之一的Vanguard Asset Management Ltd.，在今年 年初暂停了对日本长期国债的持续买入。在日本首相高市早苗决定提前解散众议院、主张大幅减税从而 引发日本债市剧烈震荡之前，这家资产管理公司就已退出了相关押注。Vanguard主动型基金国际利率主 管Ales Koutny表示："这对长期日本国债来说堪称一场完美风暴。一个国家的无资金支持财政支出是有 限度的。" 当然，并非所有基金经理都被近期的市场动荡吓退。安联全球投资(Allianz Global Investors)高级投资组 合经理Ranjiv Mann周二表示，他正在"积极讨论日本国债中的潜在机会"。上周，太平洋投资管理公司 (PIMCO)的Andrew Balls也认为，市场波动中存在机会 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Precious Metals Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver, with projections for 2026 and reflections on 2025 performance [1][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to range between $4,200 and $6,000 in 2026, driven by loose monetary policy, safe-haven demand, and financial market hedging needs [1][30]. - The anticipated dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve, especially due to personnel changes, is expected to support gold prices, with a target of over $5,000 for 2026 [2][7]. - Central bank gold purchases, while slightly declining, remain at high levels, providing market confidence [5][12]. Silver Market - Silver prices are projected to have a lower limit at the end of 2025 and could reach up to $120, influenced by supply constraints, low inventories, and trade policy restrictions [1][8][30]. - The silver market is characterized by inelastic supply and low inventories, leading to significant price increases due to investment demand and industrial needs [6][8]. - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, which supports price stability [8][22]. Market Dynamics - The precious metals market is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical changes, monetary policy, and trade dynamics, which are expected to continue affecting prices in 2026 [7][29]. - The relationship between gold and silver prices is strong, with silver often following gold's price movements, particularly during periods of heightened investment demand [9][20]. Additional Important Insights - The global silver inventory increased from 38,000 tons at the beginning of 2025 to 43,000 tons by the end of the year, but the deliverable inventory decreased significantly, indicating a tight market [19][21]. - The Indian market's seasonal demand for silver, particularly in October, has a substantial impact on global supply dynamics, contributing to tightness in the market [25]. - The COMEX market has seen a rapid inflow of registered silver warehouse receipts, but the non-registered receipts remain locked, further tightening the available supply [21][26]. - The volatility in the gold-silver ratio, which fell from 90 at the end of 2024 to around 50, indicates that silver is experiencing more significant price fluctuations compared to gold [10][18]. Conclusion - The precious metals market is expected to remain strong in 2026, with both gold and silver prices likely to rise due to ongoing economic uncertainties, investment demand, and supply constraints. The interplay between monetary policy and geopolitical factors will be crucial in shaping market dynamics [7][29][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Stock Index**: In the long - term, policies support the capital market, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 2. **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market rally, government bond supply pressure, and inflation expectations in the first quarter [6]. 3. **Precious Metals**: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [8]. 4. **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as supply and demand, tariffs, and market sentiment [11][13][16]. 5. **Black Building Materials**: The steel market continues to be weak and volatile, and iron ore prices may be adjusted at high levels. Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and strong. Glass and soda ash markets lack obvious drivers and are expected to be volatile [32][35][39]. 6. **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be short - sold if it breaks through a certain price, and methanol is recommended to be bought on dips [57][61]. 7. **Agricultural Products**: The short - term of some agricultural products such as live pigs and eggs may be strong, while the medium - term of live pigs may be under pressure. Protein meal and oil prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [81][83][86]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. Memory chip shortages intensify, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts for different terms are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short - term, as the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year and the unchanged policy support for the capital market in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts change. China's GDP in 2025 grows by 5%, and relevant economic data for December 2025 is released. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 722 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, the demand side is weak, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the first quarter, affected by factors such as the stock market rally and government bond supply [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise, and relevant information about the Fed's new chairman's candidate and the Fed's independence is provided [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, buy on dips after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rise, LME copper inventory increases, domestic electrolytic copper inventory changes, and the import loss and refined - scrap copper price difference are given [10]. - **Strategy**: Although market sentiment is affected by tariffs, it is not pessimistic. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise, inventory changes, and the processing fee and spot premium/discount are provided [12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The industrial situation has no obvious improvement, but zinc has a large room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead supply increases, and the price may be affected by market sentiment. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise, and the cost and price of nickel ore and nickel iron change [19][20]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall, supply and demand change, and inventory increases [21]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price index of lithium carbonate falls, and the futures price rises [22]. - **Strategy**: The price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price index of alumina falls, inventory increases, and relevant cost data are provided [24][25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts on rallies, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise, inventory decreases, and raw material prices are provided [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, with a reference price range for the main contract [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is stable, inventory decreases, and the price difference between contracts changes [28]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile and consolidate in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall, and inventory and position data change [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is weak and volatile. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to a short - term supply contraction, and attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking and policy changes [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore falls, and relevant data such as inventory and basis are provided [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure eases, but the new driving force is insufficient. The price may be adjusted at high levels, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and hot metal production [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but attention should be paid to short - term market sentiment shocks and high volatility risks [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Market Information**: The price of glass falls, inventory decreases, and position changes [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand are in a loose balance, and the price is expected to be volatile in a wide range, with a reference price range for the main contract [40]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash is stable, inventory changes, and position changes [41]. - **Strategy**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted out, with a reference price range for the main contract [42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fall, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [43][44]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment affects the price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [47]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of large - factory production cuts [49]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [50]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [51]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are weak, with different views from bulls and bears. Tire factory开工率 changes, and inventory increases [53][54][55]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy if the price breaks through a certain level, and consider partial position - building for a spread trading strategy [57]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the inventory of refined oil products changes [58]. - **Strategy**: Raise the valuation of heavy - oil products, and expect the spread of asphalt or fuel oil to rise [59]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol changes, and MTO profit changes [60]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips due to geopolitical expectations [61]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea changes, and the basis is provided [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC falls, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is poor, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term, with short - term support from electricity prices and export - rush [68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term and expect further valuation compression in the medium - term [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy**: The price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the spread between LL5 and LL9 contracts on dips [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year under the background of weak supply and demand [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends in the north and south, and the market sentiment changes [80]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure due to large supply [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and inventory and demand data are provided [82]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is strong, but the overall supply is abundant. The long - term of the far - end contract is expected to be good, but there are uncertainties [83][84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fall, and relevant trade and inventory data are provided [85]. - **Strategy**: The prices are affected by multiple negative factors, and short - term fluctuations may increase [86]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils fall, and relevant inventory and policy information are provided [87][88]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term is expected to be optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fluctuates, and relevant import and production data are provided [90][91]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton fluctuates, and relevant import, production, and inventory data are provided [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room for growth in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [95].

贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.35 %，报 1053.46 元/克，沪银涨 5.88 %，报 23565.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4676.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 94.28 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 99.03 ； 在联储独立性方面，鲍威尔宣布将在周三出席美国最高法院关于理事库克的口头辩论，这是鲍 威尔对其最为显著的支持，意在维护央行独立性。 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主 席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞 特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普关系极度 亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错， 可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普的表态令市场迅速调高了沃什接任联储主席的概率。沃什被认 为在维护美联储独立性与执行总统意志 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a general trend of decline in government bond futures, while the central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting the bond market [1][2][8]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22% at 110.92, and the 10-year main contract down 0.02% at 108.04 [2]. - The interbank bond yield for the 10-year government bond increased by 0.38 basis points to 1.9678%, while the yield for the 30-year government bond rose by 0.2 basis points to 2.303% [2]. Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a structural interest rate cut, reducing the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for different terms [6]. - The central bank's actions reinforce a loose monetary policy stance, which is expected to support the bond market, particularly in the short term [1][8]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan, indicating a generally loose funding environment [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.318% [5]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from various institutions suggest that the central bank has room for further easing measures if economic conditions worsen, particularly if inflation pressures decrease [8]. - There is a belief that the short-term downward space for interest rates is limited, as market participants are gradually shifting their views towards a weaker bond market [8].

钟俊轩 贵金属日报 2026-01-19 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主 席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞 特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普关系极度 亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错， 可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普的表态令市场迅速调高了沃什接任联储主席的概率。沃什被认 为在维护美联储独立性与执行总统意志之间具备更好的平衡感，且更容易获得参议院的批准。 目前，沃什已成为预测市场眼中绝对的领跑者。哈塞特一直被视为支持大幅降息的代表，而沃 什在历史上（曾经的理事任期）立场偏向鹰派，由于市场预期沃什接掌后的美联储在降息节奏 上会比哈塞特更为谨慎，金银价格在特朗普讲话后短线回调。当前 Kalshi 平台数据显示，凯 文沃什被选拔为新任美联储主席的概率上升至 59%，哈塞特和沃什仅为 16%。 【策略观点】 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.13 %，报 1031.66 元/克，沪银跌 2.53 %，报 21998.00 元/千克；COM ...

Group 1 - The Tokyo stock market indices have been continuously setting closing records this year, with the Nikkei index surpassing 54,000 points for the first time, driven by the announcement of early elections by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi [1] - The rise in the stock market is not reflective of a robust recovery in the Japanese economy, as real wages have been declining, leading to a decrease in consumer purchasing power [1][2] - The financial environment in Japan remains very loose, with the Bank of Japan cautiously raising interest rates to 0.75%, which is still considered low globally [1][2] Group 2 - The Japanese yen is extremely weak, with the exchange rate dropping to around 159 yen per dollar, influenced by a lack of domestic market confidence among large corporations and ongoing trade deficits [2] - Inflation has positively impacted corporate performance, with the core consumer price index rising by 3.0% year-on-year, allowing companies to increase prices and improve sales revenue [2] - Overseas investors are increasingly attracted to the Japanese stock market, with foreign ownership reaching a record 32.4% in the fiscal year 2024, while domestic financial institutions hold 28.3% [3] Group 3 - Japanese companies are heavily reliant on overseas markets for profitability, with foreign income accounting for 40% to 50% of total revenue, making global performance a key factor in stock valuation [3] - Fast Retailing Co., the parent company of Uniqlo, reported strong growth in overseas markets, leading to record net profits for three consecutive years and an increase in profit forecasts [4] - Despite the stock market's highs, experts warn that Japan's economic issues, such as stagnant wages and low consumer spending, remain unresolved [4]

02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 联储新主席候选人预期生 变，进入震荡区间 贵金属周报 2026/01/17 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 ◆ 本周行情回顾：沪金涨2.57%，报1032.32 元/克，沪银涨20.03%，报22483.00 元/千克；COMEX金涨1.83%，报4601.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨12.73%，报89.95 美元/盎司； ◆ 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领 跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普 关系极度亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错，可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普 的表态令市场迅速调高了 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The central bank has rolled out a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, focusing on private SMEs and technological innovation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with favorable conditions for further loosening of monetary policy [2][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Central Bank Policies - The central bank has lowered the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points. It has increased the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan relending quota for private enterprises, and increased the quota for technological innovation and transformation relending by 400 billion yuan. It has also expanded the scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool and reduced the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - Central bank deputy governor Zou Lan stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Conditions for further loosening monetary policy are relatively sufficient, and loose monetary policy is needed to support positive fiscal policies, consumption boost, and investment stabilization [3]. Stock Market Performance On January 15, 2026 - A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2,905.496 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,035.893 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.46% [4]. - Internationally, South Korean, Dutch, and US stocks led the gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index, Saudi All - Share Index, and Nikkei 225 led the losses. European major stock indices also showed mixed performance [4]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8483%, with a change of - 0.14BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.4154% and 1.5497% respectively [4]. - In terms of sectors, electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the losses [4]. On January 8, 2026 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2,800.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 538.76 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index fell 0.82%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.82% [7]. - US stocks showed mixed performance, and European stocks also had mixed results. The Nikkei 225, Dutch AEX, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index had relatively large declines [8]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8828%, with a change of - 1.6BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3424% and 1.5261% respectively [9]. - In terms of sectors, national defense and military industry, media, building decoration, and real estate led the gains, while non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, communications, and banks led the losses [10]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 1.848, with a change of - 0.14BP. DR007 was 1.502, with a change of - 6.44BP. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9631, with a change of - 0.12%. The US dollar index was 99.34, with a change of 0.27% [20]. A - Share Market Overview - The total A - share market capitalization was 114.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.62 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year was 28.53 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 31,698.37 billion yuan. The PE(TTM) was 23.34x, and the PB(MRQ) was 6.23x. The margin trading balance decreased by 24,885.74 billion yuan compared to a month ago, and the short - selling balance decreased by 170.96 billion yuan [24]. - Different A - share indices had different performance, with details on their closing prices, trading volumes, daily and weekly changes, and the number of rising and falling stocks [24]. - The latest trading volume was 29,385 billion yuan, and the latest turnover rate was 4.98%. The margin trading balance was 26,806 billion yuan as of January 14, 2026 [25][26]. Industry Performance - The top three sectors in terms of daily increase were electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals. The top three sectors in terms of daily net capital inflow were electronics, banks, and basic chemicals. The top three sectors in terms of late - session net capital inflow were electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry [28][30]. - The top three themes in terms of daily increase were advanced packaging, cobalt mines, and lithography machines [30].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, aiming to support economic restructuring and optimize the housing market [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The one-year interest rate for various relending tools has been reduced to 1.25%, with other term rates adjusted accordingly [1] - The central bank's move is a direct implementation of the central economic work conference's directive to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of unsold residential properties for affordable housing [1] Group 2: Impact on Real Estate - The introduction of a new relending program for affordable housing, with a rate of 1.75%, is expected to lower to 1.25% following the recent rate cut, which will facilitate local state-owned enterprises in acquiring unsold residential properties [1] - The low utilization of affordable housing relending funds is closely tied to funding costs, and the recent rate cut is anticipated to accelerate the acquisition pace of unsold properties for affordable housing, improving market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 3: Commercial Real Estate Support - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30%, aimed at alleviating inventory issues in the commercial real estate market [2][3] - The commercial real estate sector is facing significant inventory and liquidity challenges, with some areas experiencing a sales cycle of 30 to 70 months [2] - The reduction in down payment requirements is expected to attract more investors to commercial real estate, enhancing transaction activity and potentially leading to better resource allocation [3] Group 4: Market Trends - There is a growing interest among investors in commercial properties, particularly in long-term rental products such as serviced apartments, driven by the rise of the rental market [4] - In Shenzhen, the proportion of non-residential transactions in new homes reached 31.4% in 2025, indicating a significant increase in demand for non-residential properties [4][5]