盾博发现本周二，美国财政部长贝森特发表声明，白宫目前正在梳理一份有着大量候选人的名单，在将其中 的人员精简之后，他将迅速启动剩下的人员进行面试。 在接受CNBC的《Squawk Box》的专访时，贝森特表示经过初步的筛选，共有11位有着超强能力的候选人进 入到了最终的选拔阶段。其中包括了大量的专家，官员以及顾问。 在最新的消息当中表明，这份候选人当中，有着几位著名的角色，现任理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）、达拉斯联储主席洛莉·洛根（Lorie Logan）、白宫经济 学家凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）及前任理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）。 美联储的下次政策会议将于9月16日至17日举行，所有人都认为在这一次的会议当中将会通过自2024年12月 以来的首次25个基点的降息。 鲍威尔将于本周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年会上讲话，而这可能是鲍威尔在美联储主席任期内 的最后一次演讲。并且这一次的演讲鲍威尔可能会透露9月份FOMC决议的倾向。 虽然鲍威尔在美联储的任期要到2026年5月才会正式结束，但由于美国政府 ...

阻力位首先在0.6625，即7月24日的高点，其上方是2024年11月7日的峰值0.6687。若能果断突破该水 平，将为重返象征性的0.7000关口打开通道。另一方面，初步支撑位在0.6418（8月1日低点），其次是 200日简单移动平均线（SMA）0.6386。若跌破该位置，将下探6月23日的低点0.6372。 西太平洋银行-墨尔本研究院的调查显示，8月消费者信心指数攀升5.7%，达到98.5，创2022年初以来最 高值。读数低于100意味着悲观者仍然多于乐观者。此前澳洲联储降息至3.6%，为今年第三次降息，并 表示随着经济失去些许动能，可能需要进一步放宽政策以实现其通胀和就业目标。 周二（8月19日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元下跌，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:30分，澳元/美元 报价0.6492，下跌0.01%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6493。周二公布的调查显示，澳洲8月消费者信 心大幅改善，因今年第三次降息提振了财政和经济前景。 ...

Group 1 - Trump's tweet calling for an immediate 300 basis point interest rate cut triggered a significant reaction in global financial markets, leading to a 25-point drop in the dollar index and a $20 per ounce increase in gold prices [1] - The probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell being dismissed surged from 16% to 26% within four hours, indicating heightened market anxiety [1] - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical situation with $37 trillion in debt interest payments consuming a quarter of federal tax revenue, and each 1% increase in interest rates costing the government an additional $360 billion annually [1] Group 2 - The FOMC meeting revealed a deep divide among members, with a 9-2 vote against the chair's decision, marking the first public dissent from two members since 1993 [2] - Core CPI rose to 2.9%, driven by Trump's tariff policies, which increased clothing prices by 0.4%, furniture by 1%, and appliances by 1.9% [2] - Central banks globally sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades, reflecting a shift in economic dynamics [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, while emphasizing the importance of controlling inflation [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September rose to 62.6%, with predictions of four rate cuts under a new chair [5] - The disparity in market performance, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1% and the Nasdaq reaching a new high, symbolizes the ongoing tension between political pressures and market expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending decline of the US dollar's dominance, triggered by various economic and political factors, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [1][4][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, with a focus on controlling inflation, while omitting previous language suggesting potential rate cuts [3][9]. - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 62.6%, with speculation of four rate cuts under a new chairperson [3][9]. - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve was highlighted by a historic 9:2 vote against the chairperson's decision, marking the first public dissent since 1993 [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The financial markets exhibited a split behavior, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq reached a historic high, driven by tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla [3][4]. - Gold futures prices surged past $3444 per ounce, and a significant increase in silver ETF holdings was noted, indicating a market bet on future monetary easing [3][4]. - The volatility in the markets reflects a broader concern over the potential for a bubble, given the high leverage in the US stock market [3][4]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - Central banks globally sold $36 billion in US Treasury bonds in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, indicating a shift away from the dollar [4][11]. - The concept of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade [4][11]. - The US dollar index has fallen by 9.15% this year, prompting investors to seek ways to mitigate the risks associated with dollar depreciation [4][11]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - The second quarter GDP growth was attributed to a decrease in imports, while domestic demand growth hit a two-and-a-half-year low [7][9]. - Job creation in the private sector exceeded expectations, but the drop in unemployment was due to a reduction in labor supply rather than increased demand [7][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with nearly 90% of businesses planning to pass on costs to consumers, exacerbated by tariffs [7][9].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly 10-year high on August 18, with the North Stock 50 hitting a historical peak, and both the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index surpassing their October 8 highs from the previous year. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.76 trillion yuan, setting a new annual record [1] - The stock market's healthy development is crucial for China's future high-quality economic growth, marking a significant opportunity for historical development in the current and upcoming periods [1] Group 2 - Monetary policy is a key factor influencing capital market liquidity. The People's Bank of China shifted its monetary policy stance from stable to moderately loose at the end of last December, leading to interest rate cuts and maintaining reasonable liquidity in the market, with interest rates reaching historical lows [4] - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting process last year, which may resume in September due to weakening economic data and political pressures. Predictions suggest the Fed could cut rates 2-3 times by the end of the year, potentially benefiting China's capital market as international capital seeks undervalued investments [4] Group 3 - The real estate sector has entered a deep adjustment period, with decreasing financing from commercial banks for real estate companies and households. This has led to a shrinking non-bank wealth management market and historically low yields on bank wealth management products [5] - Funds that previously thrived in real estate and wealth management are now flowing back to banks, with a portion expected to invest in the stock market, presenting a significant opportunity for the stock market [5] Group 4 - Regulatory policies have been actively supporting the stock market, with unprecedented measures such as the central bank's direct participation in market regulation. Tools introduced by the central bank include securities and fund swaps and stock repurchase loans to support market participants [6] - The central bank's role as a last-resort lender and its ability to influence monetary policy and capital market transactions are crucial for stabilizing the financial system [6] Group 5 - The health of the capital market is fundamentally linked to the real economy. Despite external uncertainties and slowing domestic demand, strategic emerging industries and high-tech sectors are rapidly growing, contributing to the stock market's expansion [7] - To ensure a healthier stock market in the future, it is essential to manage the pace of new listings, maintain supply-demand balance, enforce strict market regulations, and protect investor rights [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is committed to maintaining a loose monetary policy to support market operations amid an incomplete economic recovery, as evidenced by recent liquidity injections through reverse repos [2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On August 15, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a six-month term to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [1]. - This operation follows a previous 700 billion yuan reverse repo on August 8, indicating a consistent approach to liquidity management [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The 500 billion yuan injection aims to alleviate the funding pressure in the interbank market, especially as significant amounts of funds are maturing [3]. - The central bank's actions are expected to enhance market risk appetite, particularly as the A-share market reaches historical highs, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and the market [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Context - The central bank's liquidity measures are aligned with the government's directive to accelerate bond issuance and maintain a stable monetary environment, which is crucial for economic recovery [5]. - Current monetary policy is focused on promoting reasonable price recovery and stabilizing growth, with an "appropriate loosening" stance sending positive signals to the market [4].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【机构调查：市场对美联储九月会议预期巨变，交易员首预计降息50个基点】机构调查显示，市场对美 联储九月会议的预期出现了巨大改变。依据Kalshi的数据，交易员们首次预计降息50个基点。多数受访 者依然认为会降息25个基点，不过"保持不变"和"更大幅度降息"之间的平衡正在反转，这表明一些人开 始接受更为激进的宽松政策。 ...

| BTOG Bit Origin | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 549 4 + +0.0614 +12.58% 收盘价 08/13 16:00 美东 | | | | 0.5700↑ 0.0206 +3.75% | | 盘前价 08/14 04:13 美东 | | 一 分 24 9 目 ♥ 1选 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 0.6385 | 开盘价 0.5350 | 成交量 4492.73万 | | 最低价 0.5200 | 昨收价 0.4880 | 成交额 2579.88万 | | 平均价 0.5740 | 市盈率ITM 亏损 | 总市值 3240.31万(…) | | 振 幅 24.28% | 市盈率(静) 亏损 | 总股本 5897.91万 | | 换手率 77.18% | 市净率 -28.915 | 流通值 3198.12万 | | 52周最高 3.0900 | 委 比 81.82% | 流通股 5821.11万 | | 52周最低 0.1184 | 量 比 0.98 | 色 手 1股 | | 历史最高 180.0000 股息TTM -- | | | | 历史最 ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to restart its accommodative monetary policy, with a nearly 95% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17, up from less than 60% a month ago [1] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, leading to discussions about further rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut in a single move [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet has publicly stated that the Federal Reserve should consider more aggressive easing policies to address economic challenges [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will officially restart the rate cut process next month, with expectations of 25 basis point cuts at each policy meeting until January 2026, totaling a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points [1] - The shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment by the Federal Reserve is expected to support the stock market, high-quality bonds, and safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3 - UBS recommends investors to adopt a highly diversified investment portfolio to mitigate market volatility and create conditions for long-term returns [2] - For investors with appropriate risk tolerance and the ability to manage unique risks associated with alternative investments, hedge funds and private markets are also suggested as potential investment channels [2]

周四（8月14日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元上涨，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:13分，澳元/美元 报价0.6552，上涨0.16%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6542。澳洲联储主席米歇尔·布洛克在货币政策 会议后的新闻发布会上释放明确鸽派信号，显著强化了市场对后续宽松政策的预期。 澳元兑美元即时支撑位在8月低点0.6418（8月1日），其下方是关键的200日简单移动平均线（SMA） 0.6388，再往下则是6月低点0.6372（6月23日）。此外，相对强弱指数（RSI）已回升至52以上，这意 味着存在一定的上行压力。平均方向指数（ADX）低于16，表明整体趋势仍较为疲软。 布洛克明确指出，根据最新经济预测，为实现2-3%的通胀目标区间，现金利率可能需要维持在"显著更 低水平"。她特别强调，当前经济环境下"不排除连续降息的可能性"，这一表述较此前立场更为激进。 更为关键的是，布洛克透露联储的前瞻性政策模型显示"存在继续降息的空间"，并暗示若通胀持续放 缓，可能采取更积极的宽松措施。这些表态直接导致市场将澳洲联储年内再次降息的概率上调至80%以 上，对澳元汇率形成显著下行压力。分析师指出，布洛克的言论 ...