主持：关珊（股市广播FM95.3《走进机构大本营》） 嘉宾：莫小城（桓瑞天泽总经理） 最近医药板块的表现非常亮眼，创新药概念股更是一马当先。根据相关统计，年内万得创新药指数已经 大涨超过20%。港股方面的创新药指数涨幅更高，超过45%。亮眼的指数表现使得相关的ETF产品表现 水涨船高。目前，今年以来涨幅超过30%的创新药ETF越来越多，已经取代之前非常火热的人工智能、 机器人等板块，集体跻身到前十位置。 莫小城坚信，未来，中国医药行业，包括创新药企、医疗设备和中成药等，预计在全球舞台上将展现更 强的竞争力，行业增速加快。长期来看，中国有可能诞生全球最大的医药公司。 港股创新药市场表现更佳 2025年以来，港股创新药指数涨幅超过45%，远超A股创新药指数涨幅。这一差异主要归因于港股市场 的18A制度，对创新药公司的上市门槛宽松，许多优质创新药公司在港上市融资。同时之前多年港股创 新药公司持续下跌，估值相对便宜。 桓瑞天泽总经理莫小城认为，尽管医药板块年内涨幅显著，但这仅是开始。基于长期研究，他乐观预 期，中国医药行业，尤其是创新药领域，将迎来持续高增长和全球竞争力提升。港股与A股医药板块表 现差异中，港股因估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the acceleration of the "engineer dividend" in China's economy, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the importance of talent, investment, and research and development (R&D) as key factors driving growth. Talent - The proportion of medical graduates from ordinary higher education institutions has shown a consistent upward trend since 2004, reaching 10.4% in 2021, up from 6.2% in 2003, indicating a significant increase in talent supply in the medical field [2] - The proportion of doctoral graduates in medical fields has also increased, reaching 18% in 2022, up from 11% in 2009, reflecting a growing emphasis on advanced medical education [2] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in the pharmaceutical industry significantly accelerated from 2009 to 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 145% compared to the overall industry growth rate during that period [2] - The overall technical investment ratio also saw a central upward trend during this time, indicating increased capital allocation towards technology in the pharmaceutical sector [2] Research - The Nature Index, which measures the influence of research institutions in natural sciences, shows that China's biological sciences field's index rose from approximately 17.5% of the U.S. in 2019 to 37.8% in 2023, indicating a rapid increase in research output [2] - This growth in research output is a key indicator of the increasing R&D capabilities within China's pharmaceutical industry [2] Corporate R&D - The number of PCT (Patent Cooperation Treaty) patent applications in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical technology sectors has increased significantly, with China reaching 30% of the U.S. level by 2019 and projected to reach 48% by 2024 [3] - The R&D investment index for leading pharmaceutical companies has shown a marked increase since 2019, indicating a faster pace of R&D investment among top firms [3] - Pharmaceutical companies listed on the stock market have seen their R&D revenue as a percentage of total revenue enter double digits in 2023, surpassing the overall A-share market [3] R&D Harvest Period - The concept of "R&D harvest period" is highlighted as a critical lens for observing the current stage of China's economy and technology-intensive industries, emphasizing the importance of prior R&D efforts in driving future growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a recovery, particularly in the innovative drug segment, which has shown significant growth and interest in recent months [5][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The innovative drug index has increased by 4.44% over the past month, indicating a strong market rebound [5]. - The upcoming ASCO conference is expected to showcase a record number of Chinese companies and their achievements, highlighting the growing presence of Chinese innovative drugs in the global market [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The global pharmaceutical industry is characterized by a clear division of labor, where small companies focus on R&D while larger firms handle clinical development and commercialization [6]. - A "patent cliff" is anticipated in the next three years, with an estimated loss of $200 billion due to expiring patents, which may challenge multinational companies to compensate for these losses through internal product development [6]. Group 3: Chinese Innovative Drugs - Chinese innovative drug assets are increasingly being sought after by multinational companies, with Chinese drug licensing to the U.S. reaching 31% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025 [9]. - The clinical trial cycle for innovative drugs in China is expected to yield a significant number of new drug applications in the U.S., with 704 original innovative drugs entering clinical trials in 2024, the highest globally [10]. Group 4: Market Growth and Competition - The domestic innovative drug market is projected to grow from 137.4 billion yuan in 2015 to 257.6 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% [14]. - The market share of domestic companies has increased from 18.7% to 27.8%, with a notable contribution from drugs launched after 2015 [14]. Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Environment - The approval timeline for innovative drugs in China has significantly improved, with the time difference for U.S. drugs entering China shrinking from 12 years in 2005 to a negative 1.2 years by 2024 [14]. - Recent policy initiatives are aimed at encouraging the development of innovative drugs and improving industry efficiency, with expectations for further reforms in the payment system [16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The market shows strong resilience, exceeding expectations, with significant participation from southbound funds and foreign investments in technology, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors in May 2025 [2][1] - **Chinese Innovative Drug Industry**: Benefiting from national support policies, with a rising demand for Chinese innovative drugs in the US due to the impending patent cliff in the US and Europe. The proportion of Chinese innovative drug projects authorized in the US reached 50% in Q1 2025 [4][1] - **Domestic IP Market**: Rapid growth observed, with VRA transaction volume on platforms like Xianyu increasing by 105% year-on-year in Q1 2025. Chinese companies excel in supply chain management and e-commerce innovations [11][1] - **Bubble Mart's Overseas Business**: Continued unexpected growth, with overseas revenue projected to reach 10 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 100% increase from the previous year [12][1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Performance of Hong Kong Stocks**: Companies like Hengke have shown significant profit improvements, and the overall earnings elasticity is better than expected, indicating a favorable outlook for 2025 [2][1] - **Innovative Drug Development**: China has become the largest country for innovative drug pipelines globally as of 2024, showcasing advantages in technology and research cycles [5][1] - **Market Demand for Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug sector is less affected by tariffs due to its reliance on rights authorization rather than physical goods trade [3][1] - **Emerging Trends in Consumer Spending**: The rise in per capita GDP has led to increased demand for creative and culturally valuable products, driving growth in the IP derivatives sector [10][1] Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities in New Consumption**: The new consumption sector is characterized by strong alpha candidates, particularly in beauty care and gold jewelry, with companies like Laopu Gold showing significant growth potential [13][1][18][1] - **Automotive Industry Trends**: The demand for new vehicles remains strong, with brands like BYD, Geely, and Xpeng showing potential for growth. The commercial vehicle market is also recovering, with companies like Heavy Truck and Weichai being highlighted [22][1][24][1] - **Financial Performance of Gold Jewelry Sector**: The gold jewelry sector is experiencing a product power renaissance, with companies that have strong design capabilities and brand positioning benefiting from market share growth [16][1][17][1] - **HHR Company Outlook**: HHR is expected to see a turnaround in revenue and profit, with a projected net profit of 640-650 million yuan in 2025, indicating significant improvement potential [26][1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the price spread of MDI has improved, and a joint venture has been established with Kuwait Petrochemical [5][7] - The company is positioned as a typical example of development driven by technological innovation in the chemical industry, aiming to become a global chemical giant [4] - The short-term profitability of the company is primarily influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is dependent on the ability to innovate and launch milestone products [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the company's stock price is 55.41 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 173.97 billion CNY [3] - The company's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows a decline of 37.1% over the past 12 months [3] Price Spread and Profitability - The MDI price spread index for Q2 2025 is at an average of 70.11, down 7.35 from Q1 2025, indicating a position in the historical 5.83 percentile [6][25] - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be 3.4 billion CNY [6] Key Projects and Developments - A joint venture agreement was signed with Kuwait Petrochemical on April 25, 2025, with an investment of 638 million USD for a 25% stake in a subsidiary [7][35] - Several projects are in progress, including expansions in MDI and HDI production capacities, with expected revenues from new projects totaling 476 billion CNY in 2025 [37] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 197.6 billion CNY, 230.5 billion CNY, and 251.8 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 14.3 billion CNY, 18.4 billion CNY, and 22.3 billion CNY [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of educational background, particularly the relevance of pursuing a PhD, on entrepreneurial success, highlighting that many successful entrepreneurs did not pursue doctoral studies and questioning the current educational system's effectiveness in fostering practical skills [10][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Backgrounds - Liang Wenfeng, after completing his master's degree, co-founded a quantitative hedge fund, which quickly grew to manage over 100 billion [5][6]. - Wang Xingxing, despite initial setbacks in his academic journey, eventually secured funding for his company, Yushutech, after working at DJI [7][8]. - Wang Tao, the founder of DJI, started his company in a small warehouse and received crucial support from his mentor, leading to DJI's rise as a global leader in drones [8]. Group 2: Educational Insights - The article emphasizes that practical experience is more valuable than formal education, suggesting that the current educational system should focus on transforming knowledge into practical skills [10][11]. - It raises concerns about the current PhD education system, where many students spend significant time on non-research tasks, indicating a need for reform [10][11]. Group 3: China's Engineering Advantage - China ranks second in AI innovation globally, with a significant increase in AI patent applications, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the tech sector [15][16]. - The country boasts a large pool of educated individuals, with over 250 million people holding a university degree, providing a robust foundation for innovation and entrepreneurship [15][16]. - The article highlights the "engineer dividend" in China, suggesting that the country is well-positioned to produce leading global companies in advanced technology sectors [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of educational background, particularly the relevance of pursuing a PhD, on entrepreneurial success, highlighting examples of successful entrepreneurs who did not pursue doctoral studies [2][9]. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Backgrounds - Liang Wenfeng, after completing his master's degree, co-founded a quantitative hedge fund and later established DeepSeek, focusing on AI, which gained significant attention in 2023 [4][12]. - Wang Xingxing, who faced challenges in his academic journey, eventually founded Yushutech after receiving investment support, demonstrating the importance of practical experience over formal education [6][7]. - Wang Tao, the founder of DJI, also exemplifies the entrepreneurial spirit, having started his company with limited resources and support from mentors, emphasizing the role of practical knowledge and experience [7][11]. Group 2: Educational Insights - The article raises questions about the effectiveness of the current PhD education system in fostering practical skills and real-world applications, suggesting a need for reform [9][10]. - It argues that true capability is developed through practical experience rather than solely through academic knowledge, advocating for a closer integration of education with industry [9][10]. Group 3: China's Engineering Advantage - China is experiencing a significant "engineer dividend," with a large population of highly educated individuals contributing to innovation and entrepreneurship, particularly in AI and technology sectors [13][14]. - The article cites a report indicating that China ranks second globally in AI innovation, with a substantial number of patents filed, showcasing the country's growing technological prowess [13][14]. - The presence of a vast pool of skilled engineers is seen as a critical factor for the success of high-tech companies in China, providing a competitive edge in the global market [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of educational paths on entrepreneurship, particularly questioning the necessity of pursuing a PhD for successful innovation and business creation [1][9]. Group 1: Entrepreneurial Journeys - Liang Wenfeng, after completing his master's degree, co-founded a quantitative hedge fund, managing over 10 billion in assets, and later established DeepSeek, focusing on AI [5][6]. - Wang Xingxing, who also pursued a master's degree, founded Yuzhu Technology after initially working at DJI, highlighting the importance of practical experience over formal education [7]. - Wang Tao, the founder of DJI, dropped out of university and later achieved significant success in the drone industry, emphasizing that practical skills and passion can lead to entrepreneurial success [7]. Group 2: Educational Critique - Wang Shuguo's questions raise concerns about the current PhD education system, suggesting that practical experience is more valuable than theoretical knowledge [9][10]. - The article critiques the traditional PhD path, indicating that many students spend time on non-research tasks, which may not contribute to their development as innovators [10]. - The need for educational reform is emphasized, advocating for a system that integrates practical experience with academic learning to better prepare students for real-world challenges [10]. Group 3: The Role of Engineers in Innovation - China is experiencing a significant "engineer dividend," with over 250 million individuals holding university degrees, providing a robust talent pool for innovation [12][13]. - The article highlights that China's AI innovation is rapidly growing, with patent applications in AI being nearly three times that of the U.S., indicating a strong competitive position in the global market [12]. - The presence of a large number of skilled engineers is seen as a critical factor for the success of high-tech industries in China, allowing for the emergence of globally competitive companies [13].

Group 1 - Recent fund flows show a shift, with broad-based ETFs experiencing redemptions while technology-themed ETFs attract significant inflows, leading to multiple ETFs reaching historical highs in share volume [1] - As of May 15, 2023, notable net subscriptions include 3.102 billion CNY for Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF, 1.376 billion CNY for Guolian An Semiconductor ETF, and 1.104 billion CNY for Harvest SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF, among others [2] - Several technology-themed ETFs are expected to expand significantly, with new funds being launched, including E Fund Digital Economy ETF and ICBC Credit Suisse Digital Economy ETF [2][3] Group 2 - Institutions are actively conducting research in the technology sector, with over 3,000 institutional inquiries in the computer software and semiconductor industries, and more than 2,600 in electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Notable institutions involved in recent research include Xing Shi Investment and Freshwater Spring Investment, focusing on companies like Anji Technology and Weir Shares [4] - Institutions are particularly interested in companies' profitability and global expansion strategies, as seen in inquiries about gross margin improvements and overseas investment plans [4] Group 3 - The technology sector is viewed as a key investment focus for public funds, with multiple fund companies collaborating to launch a series of products, including both active equity funds and passive index funds [3] - The current technological breakthroughs in areas such as large models, smart vehicles, and robotics are attributed to a significant influx of engineering talent in China, marking the beginning of a new cycle of technological innovation [5] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in AI applications, particularly in smart driving, AI-integrated internet giants, AI hardware, and computing power, as the A-share market shows signs of structural opportunities [5]

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, China's exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.8% growth in the first quarter, despite the impact of new U.S. tariffs implemented on April 2 [2][6] Export Performance Analysis - The resilience in exports can be attributed to a 21.0% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S., which, while significant, was better than expected. Exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America saw year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 21.7%, 25.3%, and 17.3%, respectively, effectively offsetting the decline [2][8][10] - Major export categories showed mixed results, with labor-intensive products like textiles, bags, clothing, and toys experiencing a combined year-on-year decline of 0.8%. Electronics, particularly mobile phones, were significantly affected by tariffs, with year-on-year declines of 21.4% for phones and 1.7% for automatic data processing equipment. Home appliances and furniture also saw low growth rates of -2.9% and -7.8%, respectively. However, automotive exports increased slightly by 4.4%, surpassing the first quarter's 2.2% [2][12][15][16] Competitive Advantage of Chinese Manufacturing - April's export data highlighted the competitiveness and resilience of "Made in China" products. China's manufacturing sector has both scale and efficiency advantages, as evidenced by its global manufacturing value added share of approximately 31% in 2021, compared to the U.S. at 16% and Japan at 6%. The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) index shows China ranked second globally in 2021, up from 35th in 1990 [3][17] Caution on Tariff Impact - There is a need for vigilance regarding the impact of tariffs, as the effects may become more pronounced in the coming months. Historical data from 2018 indicates that significant tariff implementations led to delayed impacts on export growth, with a notable decline occurring several months after tariffs were enacted. The April PMI data showed a 4.3-point month-on-month decline in export orders, particularly in textiles, chemicals, and midstream equipment manufacturing, indicating a potential lag in the transmission from orders to delivery [3][18][19] Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between growth momentum and stabilization efforts is likened to a seesaw, with current economic conditions suggesting a continued focus on counter-cyclical policies. Despite a strong actual growth rate in the first quarter, nominal growth remains low, with tax revenue and profits from large enterprises showing declines. The government is expected to leverage recent policy measures to stimulate domestic demand and address the ongoing pressures from tariffs [4][20]