2. 广发证券：2026年A股春季躁动值得期待 对机构"最不利"的阶段，即将过去。每年11月，市场涨跌与基本面相关性最弱。但进入12月，基本面定 价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的时间窗，即将打开。每年春季有两个重要时间点：春节、两 会。在这期间，市场有很好的"赚钱效应"，也就是"春季躁动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日。春节前 后，市场从低胜率转向高胜率；大盘风格转向小盘风格。 12月到1月是春季躁动布局的很好时机，尤其是针对那些年报预告不太会暴雷且明年景气度趋势不错的 方向。同时考虑截至上周五市场最低点，很多板块调整幅度已经达到历史上主线品种的平均水平，12月 可以逐步纳入观察范围。 3. 光大证券：市场仍处牛市，但短期或宽幅震荡 与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持 续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为 上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。配置方面，短期关注防御及消费板块，中期继续关注 TMT和先进制造板块。 上周A股市场呈现震荡向上行情，主要宽基指数录得上涨，全A指数上涨2.90% ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 本周A股市场收涨 本周A股市场收涨。本周A股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中小100等指数涨幅居前，上证50、上证指 数涨幅靠后。从估值来看，当前科创50、万得全A等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025年11月28日，其 2010年以来PE(TTM)分位数均高于80%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行等行业 跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数大多收涨，仅大盘价值收跌，小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居 前。分行业来看，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子、综合等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行、煤炭 等行业跌幅居前。 报告摘要 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed recovery during the trading week from November 24 to 28, with market sentiment warming up significantly after a previous decline [2][4] - A total of 4544 stocks rose, an increase of over 4000 compared to the previous week [3] Index Performance - The performance of various indices showed that small-cap and "double innovation" indices led the recovery, while core assets lagged behind [4] - Notable weekly gains included: - Wind Micro-cap Index: +6.11% - CSI 2000: +4.99% - ChiNext Index: +4.54% [5] Market Sentiment - The current market state is described as "upward subjective" despite being in a "can go up or down" phase [6] - The market has returned to a consolidation range since September, indicating potential for further upward movement in early December [6][8] Trading Volume and December Outlook - Historical data indicates that A-shares have a 30% probability of higher trading volume in December compared to November, with notable increases in 2019, 2020, and 2021 [9] - The correlation between trading volume and monthly performance suggests that a rise in volume is necessary for a positive monthly return [10][11] Sector Performance - Among 31 sectors, only 8 sectors, including telecommunications and media, saw an increase in trading volume compared to the previous week, while sectors like coal and steel experienced significant declines [12] Institutional Insights - Everbright Securities suggests the market remains in a bull phase but may enter a wide-ranging consolidation period, with a focus on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term [16] - Donghai Securities notes that external disturbances are expected to diminish, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion and technology empowerment [17] Index Adjustments - Important adjustments to multiple indices were announced, effective December 12, including changes to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, which may attract investor attention and influence stock prices [20][21] Upcoming Events - Key events to watch include the "Artificial Intelligence+" industry conference and the Central Economic Work Conference, which may impact market dynamics [28]

Group 1 - The overall direction of the A-share market is still in a bull market, but it may enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there is still considerable room for index growth, but the duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase under the government's guidance for a "slow bull" policy [1][3] - In November, major A-share indices generally declined, with the STAR 50 index experiencing the largest drop of 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest decline of 1.3%. The performance across industries showed significant differentiation, with sectors like comprehensive, banking, and media leading in gains [2] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced fluctuations in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over AI bubbles. The Hang Seng Index and other indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining by 4.9% [2] Group 2 - In terms of investment strategy, short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should remain on TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors. During the fluctuation phase, previously lagging sectors may perform better, particularly high-dividend and consumer sectors [3] - For the Hong Kong market, a "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. The market's overall profitability remains strong, and despite recent gains, valuations are still relatively low, making long-term investment attractive [4][5] - Specific areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in technology, chip manufacturing, and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies with their own growth potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market is likely still in a bull market phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Compared to previous bull markets, there is still significant room for index growth [1] - The duration of the bull market may be more important than the magnitude of the increase, influenced by national policies promoting a "slow bull" market [1] Group 2: Short-term Market Behavior - The market may lack strong catalysts in the short term [1] - Year-end behavior of some investors may trend towards caution, leading to a focus on market consolidation and fluctuations [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations and is hovering around the 4000-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3873.52 points, just under 130 points away from the target [1][3] - The market has shown a mixed performance in November, with a notable decrease in trading volume by 3.19% compared to the previous trading day, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment [3] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector led the market with a 4.36% increase, followed by electronics, comprehensive, and pharmaceutical sectors with gains of 2.45%, 1.69%, and 1.28% respectively [3] - Conversely, the defense, banking, and oil sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 1.93%, 1.24%, and 0.90% respectively, highlighting a clear divergence in sector performance [3] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions predict a narrow upward trend for the market in December, driven by the need to recover from previous adjustments while remaining in a "slow bull" trend [5] - The focus is shifting towards sectors with high visibility in economic recovery, particularly technology stocks like AI, which are expected to attract significant attention [5] - Some institutions remain cautious, advising to control positions in the short term while maintaining confidence in the long-term market outlook [5] Policy Expectations - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is anticipated to be a key factor influencing market direction [7] - Analysts expect the market to experience fluctuations until the conference, after which a new bullish phase may emerge as institutional funds reposition for the following year [7] Capital Flows - The RMB is maintaining a strong position, supported by a consistent surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements [9] - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December could facilitate inflows of foreign capital into the A-share market [9] - Despite some short-term profit-taking by long-term funds, there has been a net inflow of various capital types into the A-share market [10] Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend focusing on dividend-paying blue-chip stocks and sectors benefiting from long-term capital inflows, such as traditional industries and consumer sectors [14] - There is a consensus on the technology growth sector, particularly AI, as a key area for future investment, with expectations of a market recovery led by this sector [16] - The market is seen as preparing for a potential spring rally, with optimism about future growth despite current volatility [16]

Market Overview - The overall stock market has risen, with the CSI All Share Index increasing by 0.24% [1] - Both large and small-cap stocks have experienced gains, with large and mid-cap stocks rising slightly more than small-cap stocks [3][4] - Growth styles, such as those represented by the STAR Market and ChiNext, have seen significant increases, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [5][6] - The Hong Kong stock market has also shown a slight increase, recovering from a drop last Friday [8][9] Bull Market Analysis - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have risen over 40% since September 2024, indicating a technical bull market [15][16] - The definition of a bull market varies among investors, but a common international standard is a rebound of over 20% from a bear market low [12][13] - A typical A-share market cycle includes small bull and bear markets every 3-5 years and larger bull markets every 7-10 years [18][19][20] Market Characteristics - The current market is characterized as a "slow bull," but this term lacks a standard definition [21] - The CSI All Share Index has grown from approximately 1000 points in 2004 to around 5700 points now, reflecting an annualized return of about 8%-9% [23] - A significant portion of A-share gains occurs in short bursts, with only 7% of trading days contributing to major price increases [28][30] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to avoid chasing trends and making frequent trades, as this can lead to missed opportunities during significant market rallies [36][38] - Patience is emphasized as a virtue for investors, suggesting that one should hold positions unless they reach overvaluation or personal profit-taking criteria [39][40] Tools and Resources - The "Today’s Star" mini-program offers an expanded percentile valuation table for indices, allowing users to filter by various categories for targeted index fund purchases [41][42]

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in China is characterized as a "slow bull" rather than a "fast bull," driven by various economic and market factors, including the need for a stable recovery and the establishment of an independent narrative for China's AI revolution [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Chinese stock market has stabilized after a week of "bubble panic" adjustments, with expectations for a bull market driven by national confidence and global capital reallocating towards Chinese technology [3][4]. - Factors supporting the bull market include the long-standing U.S. bull market, the undervaluation of Chinese tech stocks, and the attractiveness of A-shares for international capital seeking to diversify risks [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Recovery - Economic recovery in China is slower than anticipated, with key indicators such as consumption, housing prices, and inflation not stabilizing, which dampens market optimism [5]. - The core narrative of the A-share market is closely tied to the U.S. market's AI narrative, leading to heightened sensitivity to U.S. market fluctuations [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor participation is constrained by multiple factors, including declining housing prices, high household debt, and memories of past market crashes, leading to a decrease in risk appetite [5][6]. - Institutional investors are more rational compared to retail investors, making it difficult for the market to generate a euphoric atmosphere [5][6]. Group 4: AI Revolution Narrative - Establishing an independent narrative for the "Chinese AI revolution" is crucial, as current perceptions undervalue Chinese companies compared to their U.S. counterparts [7][9]. - China's investment in AI is significantly lower than that of the U.S., indicating a potential for growth and development in this sector [9][11]. Group 5: Infrastructure and National Strategy - China's infrastructure capabilities provide a competitive edge in the AI race, with significant investments in energy and digital networks supporting technological advancements [16][22]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting AI integration across various sectors, aiming for widespread adoption and innovation by 2035 [18][19].

Group 1 - A-shares market opened high and showed slight upward movement, with strong performance in sectors like communication equipment, electronic components, gaming, and semiconductors, while sectors such as shipbuilding, aviation, agriculture, and aerospace lagged behind [1] - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles, alternating between cyclical and technology sectors [1] - Since 2025, A-share indices have maintained a volatile upward trend, with November showing a pattern of channel consolidation followed by upward breaks and significant pullbacks [3] Group 2 - The fluctuation in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has impacted global equity markets, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks and affecting the overall performance of global equity markets [3] - Despite recent adjustments in the technology and "anti-involution" sectors, the market is expected to remain in a "slow bull" trend, although short-term adjustments may require time to correct [3] - A-shares continued their rebound momentum with a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a warming market sentiment, but the current view remains one of oversold correction [3]

| 总量研究 2 | | --- | | 上周观点 2 | | 重点报告 2 | | 行业研究 4 | | 上周观点 4 | | 重点报告 5 | | 公司研究 6 | | 重点报告 6 | | 重点报告摘要 7 | | 总量研究 7 | | 行业研究 9 | | 公司研究 11 | 一周观点 总量研究 上周观点 | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然 | | | 策略 | 有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨 | 张宇生 | | | 幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于 | | | | 稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 | | | | 上周黄金价格上涨，国内权益市场指数集体回调,医药主题基金表现占优，TMT 主题基金回撤 | | | 金工 | 明显。不同投资范围的 ETF 资金均呈现流入，TMT、科创主题 ETF 受被动资金加仓，以恒生 | 祁嫣然 | | | 互联网 ETF 为代表的港 ...