2026 消费年度策略新消费无惧质疑，逆流而上 20251203 摘要 新消费领域展现出比传统消费更高的增长弹性，尤其是在高端黄金珠宝 和 IP 零售等细分市场，这些领域受益于结构性赛道红利和新兴品类。 老铺黄金通过本土品牌定位和中国传统文化内核，在中产及高净值人群 中渗透率提升，并通过三次提价，累计提价幅度超过 40%，预计 2026 年仍有价格拉动空间。 具备用户触达能力的企业，如古茗、锅圈、美丽田园、瑞幸咖啡等，通 过私域会员运营提高用户忠诚度，展现出同店增长延续性，但需关注外 卖补贴对利润率的负面影响。 泡玛特在北美市场虽增速放缓，但整体表现优于预期，通过调整产品渠 道结构和加强 IP 更迭，平衡各 IP 销售表现，提高运营效率，北美市场改 善信号是增长关键。 亚朵酒店通过会员价值体验和新零售业务运营，零售业务占比达 30%- 40%，预计 2025 年底营收接近 40 亿人民币，核心在于拥有忠诚用户， 而非供应链优势。 Q&A 明年（2026 年）消费领域的主要趋势是什么？传统消费和新消费各自面临哪 些挑战和机遇？ 明年（2026 年）的消费领域主要面临两个大的问题：一是传统消费的复苏和 改善，二是 ...

昔日创业明星、洗护品牌三谷与Rever的母公司沃利科技（武汉）有限公司进入破产清算程序。湖北省武汉市中级人民法院已正式受理该案。 根据2025年10月发布的民事裁定书，保利沃利以"无法清偿到期债务且资产不足以清偿全部负债"为由主动申请破产。其中，公司2024年度合并资产负债表显 示，所有者权益（股东权益）已亏损878万元，资产状况明显恶化。 围绕公司现状，界面时尚通过公开渠道尝试联系保利沃利，但截至发稿尚未取得联系。值得注意的是，三谷与Rever目前在天猫的官方旗舰店仍保持正常运 营。官方客服告诉界面时尚，尚未收到任何品牌调整或店铺关闭的通知，短期内"店铺不会关闭"。 不过，部分消费者向界面时尚反映已察觉一些异常。一位消费者表示，她在2025年9月底购买Rever沐浴露时，收到的产品生产日期为2023年，其中两款的保 质期将在一年后即将届满。另一名消费者亦称，自己关注的多个香型近两年长期显示缺货，"感觉品牌没有再生产新品，而是在消化存量"。 根据天眼查，保利沃利成立于2016年，该公司从2017年到2020年共接受5轮融资，每轮融资数额从百万元到千万元不等。其中，华映资本分别于2018年和 2020年对其进行 ...

三是，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升。同时，国内资金开 始从定期存款向多元理财配置转变，保险和银行资管等机构开始"真金白银"入市。 在邢自强看来，全球流动性环境趋于宽松将支持风险资产表现，预计2026年上半年美联储将会有三次降 息，分别在1月、4月和6月进行，这为全球风险资产创造了有利环境。 12月2日，摩根士丹利举办线下媒体圆桌分享会，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强和摩根士丹利中 国首席股票策略师王滢讨论了2026年中国经济和股市策略。 中国股市进入"估值结构性修复"过程 王滢认为，中国股市已经进入了"估值结构性修复"的过程。"今年A股、港股，包括全球机构投资人追 踪最为紧密的明晟中国指数，在估值上取得了非常大程度的修复。尤其港股恒生指数和明晟中国指数， 市盈率修复超30%。"她说。 摩根士丹利表示，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升，中国股 市重新被定义为"有成长性的市场"。该机构小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，将2026年12月沪深300指数 的目标点位定为4840点，并表示"明晟中国指数12个月前瞻市盈率在12至13倍之间是合理的" ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of parody brands and their appeal among young consumers, particularly in the context of established luxury brands like Arc'teryx and Ralph Lauren [3][14][25]. Group 1: Brand Imitation and Consumer Behavior - The emergence of parody brands, such as "始祖马" (Ancestor Horse), reflects a trend where consumers engage with fashion in a humorous and ironic manner, often as a critique of blind consumerism [6][12]. - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to these parody products, which offer a sense of individuality and a break from traditional luxury branding [12][31]. - The popularity of these parody items is partly driven by their lower price points compared to original luxury brands, appealing to cost-sensitive consumers [28][30]. Group 2: Market Performance of Luxury Brands - Ralph Lauren reported a 17% year-over-year increase in net income, reaching $2 billion, with a notable 30% sales growth in the Chinese market [26]. - Arc'teryx's parent company, Amer Sports, saw a 30% revenue increase to $1.756 billion, with a 47% growth in the Greater China region [26][27]. - The financial success of these brands highlights the ongoing demand for high-quality products, even as parody brands gain traction [26][27]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Preferences - The article notes a shift in consumer preferences, with younger generations prioritizing personalized expression and cultural identity over traditional brand loyalty [31][32]. - Emotional consumption is becoming a significant trend, where consumers are motivated by personal satisfaction and curiosity rather than mere brand prestige [32][33]. - The economic environment has led to a bifurcation in the market, with one segment focusing on high-quality, premium brands and another catering to price-sensitive consumers seeking value [30][31]. Group 4: Intellectual Property Concerns - The rise of parody brands raises potential intellectual property issues, as these products often mimic established brands without authorization [14][34]. - Legal actions have been taken by brands like Ralph Lauren against imitators, indicating the ongoing tension between parody and trademark infringement [38][41].

中国内地和香港首次公开募股（IPO）市场增长态势向好。安永近日发布的2025年《中国内地和香 港IPO市场回顾及展望》报告显示，A股和香港市场全年IPO数量和筹资额分别占全球总量的16%和 33%。其中，A股市场整体稳中有进，港交所以全年360亿美元的融资额跃居全球交易所榜首。 在稳监管与优结构背景下，今年A股IPO市场实现温和增长，筹资规模较去年明显提升。IPO平均筹 资额同比增幅超过50%，升至10亿元。同时，得益于超大型IPO带动，百亿元IPO筹资额占比大幅攀 升。其中，科技创新成为今年申报企业的显著特征。从行业结构看，工业、科技与材料行业位列IPO数 量前三位；能源行业跃升至融资规模前三。 安永大中华区上市服务主管合伙人何兆烽表示："当前，内地与香港资本市场已进入互补发展阶 段，两地市场协同发力，共同服务国家战略全局。上半年，国际资本持续涌入香港市场，南下资金加速 流入，推动港股投资者结构从'外资主导'转向'内外资双轮驱动'。" 行业结构上，新消费与硬科技成为推动港股上市活动的"双引擎"。"科企专线"等政策落地，为更多 高潜力科技企业提供快速上市通道。安永大中华区TMT行业联席主管合伙人李康表示："当 ...

（原标题：港股早评：三大指数低开 科技股普跌 汽车股继续分化） 特朗普暗示下任美联储主席并表示应该降息，隔夜美股收涨，中概指数走低。港股三大指数低开，恒指 跌0.44%，国指跌0.55%，恒生科技指数跌0.51%。大型科技股多数下跌但跌幅较小，腾讯、阿里巴巴、 京东跌幅在0.8%以内，汽车股继续分化，蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车继续走低，濠赌股、食品饮料股、三桶 油普跌。另外，核电股、建材水泥股、新消费概念股多数上涨，此外，新股金岩高岭新材高开超27%。 (格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations on December 2, with all three major indices closing lower. The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a trading volume exceeding 150 million yuan, with several constituent stocks such as Xiwang Food, Babi Food, and Yanjing Beer rising [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in the high-end and sub-high-end liquor sectors, while also covering leading stocks in beverages, dairy, condiments, and beer. The top ten weighted stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1] - Fujian Province has recently formulated policies to support cross-strait integration development, including measures to assist Taiwanese residents in opening Shaxian snack stores [1] Group 2 - In November, the food and beverage index continued to recover, achieving excess returns compared to the broader market, driven by a shift in market style and a positive CPI growth rate. Within the sector, pre-processed foods, baked goods, and dairy products saw the highest increases [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the core view is that new consumption will remain sustainable but will experience internal rotation, while traditional consumption is expected to see bottom improvement [2] - Since early 2025, the food and beverage sector has significantly underperformed the broader market due to changes in the consumption environment and market style. However, the sector's fundamentals are at a low point, and the valuation has declined, indicating no need for pessimism. The expectation for 2026 is a recovery in the food and beverage industry, with hopes for resilient consumer spending and increased business activity [2]

今年11月，联博基金在中国市场推出了首只运用指数增强型策略的权益类基金——联博中证500指数增 强型证券投资基金。对此，朱良分析称，中证500指数凭借其与新质生产力相匹配的行业结构、充满活 力的民营经济成分、坚实的制造业基础以及合理的估值水平，展现出较强的配置价值。 对于未来中国市场的机遇，朱良青睐那些能够将技术优势转化为长期盈利能力和现金流创造力的硬科技 企业，受益于"反内卷"政策的行业、高股息权益资产、新消费企业也值得密切关注。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 迈向不确定性时代，中国资产备受青睐。 联博基金副总经理兼投资总监朱良近日在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，在当前低利率与高不确 定性的全球背景下，中国资产已成为国际资金进行风险分散、寻求增长新动能的重要选择之一。全球主 要投资机构提升中国仓位，标志着国际资本对中国资产的认知正在发生深刻转变，逐渐转向长期的"结 构性配置"。 中国资产价值重估方兴未艾。在朱良看来，资金需要寻找新的配置方向。在政策提振信心和资本市场制 度不断完善的双重助力下，A股市场自然成为投资者的重要选择，"存款搬家"现象也印证了A股市场正 成为资金关注的重要领域。 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market in November has created space for growth in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as AI, materials, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][64][82] - The report highlights the importance of AI in driving productivity improvements across industries, particularly in the software sector, where per capita income has increased from 750,000 to 870,000 yuan over the past five years [1][59][61] - The report notes that the "anti-involution" trend is expected to positively impact PPI recovery and overall corporate profitability, with a significant reduction in losses for struggling companies [1][55][58] Group 2 - The report suggests that the AI sector remains a key focus for 2026, driven by the need for domestic hardware production and the expectation of more AI applications being implemented [2][82] - The materials and industrial sectors are expected to benefit from the anti-involution trend, with upstream metals and certain industrial enterprises poised to gain [2][82] - The report indicates that the innovative pharmaceutical sector is stable and worth holding, with potential for growth if new business development projects are released [2][82] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in November, noting a slight adjustment of 0.2% in the Hang Seng Index, with significant sector differentiation [64][66] - It highlights that the consumer and innovative pharmaceutical sectors showed positive performance, while technology and automotive sectors faced declines [64][66] - The report mentions that the inflow of southbound funds reached 117.2 billion yuan in November, indicating strong willingness from Chinese capital to invest in Hong Kong stocks despite market downturns [75][82]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of building a strong domestic market and boosting consumption, which is increasingly influenced by demographic trends such as aging populations and new consumption patterns [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market and Consumption - The focus on consumption has shifted from traditional definitions to considerations of aging demographics and emerging consumption trends [2]. - A comparison between China and Western countries shows that China's per capita consumption has surpassed that of Western nations [2]. - The example of the traditional liquor industry illustrates this shift: China's liquor consumption dropped from 15 million tons a decade ago to only 4 million tons now, indicating that relying solely on traditional consumption for growth is unrealistic [2]. - Future consumption stimulation strategies must align with the realities of an aging population and the changing habits of younger consumers [2].