期货交割
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螺纹、热卷2505合约交割报告
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:14
Report Summary - The settlement price of the rebar 2505 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to weak demand and continuous profits at the production end [2][4]. - The settlement price of the hot - rolled coil 2505 contract was 3262 yuan/ton, also at a discount to the spot price, with the basis at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery [2][18]. Rebar 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Basis - The rebar 2505 contract settlement price was 3066 yuan/ton, at a discount of 124 and 218 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. Weak demand and production - end profits led to short - selling in the futures market. The real - estate demand contraction affected terminal consumption, and there was hedging motivation due to good steel mill profits [2][4]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The total settlement volume was 57,300 tons, lower than expected and down from the previous year, at a moderately high level in recent years. The impact on the market was expected to be limited. Buyers were willing to take delivery due to low inventory and a strong basis, but their positions were scattered. Sellers were mainly production and trading enterprises for hedging and basis trading [6]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The rebar 5 - 10 spread remained low and stable, dragged down by real - estate demand. The 3 - month high - frequency data showed a large year - on - year decline in weekly demand. By May 15, the 5 - 10 spread was - 43 yuan/ton. Low inventory reduced delivery pressure, and arbitrage drove the transfer of warehouse receipts to the spot market, affecting the near - month contract price and the inter - delivery spread [14]. Hot - Rolled Coil 2505 Contract Settlement Summary Settlement Price and Spot Basis - The hot - rolled coil 2505 contract settlement price was 3262 yuan/ton, at a discount of 18 and 68 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively. The basis was at a medium - historical level. The seller's position was more concentrated, and the production enterprises were the leading force in delivery due to the phased premium structure, high production, and export expectation disturbances [18]. Settlement Volume and Position Changes - The settlement volume of the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract was 155,100 tons, an obvious increase from the HC2405 contract, still at a moderately high level in the past 10 years. The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu [22]. Inter - delivery Strategy Summary - The hot - rolled coil 5 - 10 spread showed a reverse - arbitrage structure. High production, trade - war - induced contraction in the cold - hot spread, and expectations of export and domestic - demand contraction led to the far - month contract being stronger. After entering the delivery month, positive Sino - US negotiations led to a small repair of the 5 - 10 spread, but it remained at a low level in recent years [30].
工业硅需求不见起色,关注多晶硅减产力度
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 10:41
周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色,关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an:k] | 工业硅:震荡/多晶硅:看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期: | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后,北方和云南产能出现减产,但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色,有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产,对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅:工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线,价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上,前期 空单可部分止盈,不建议左侧做多,建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后, 再考虑右侧抄底。此外,关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅:价格下跌后,关注供给端变化,以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧,盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...
多晶硅期货现在可以交割了吗
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-29 11:29
多晶硅期货现在还不可以交割。 多晶硅期货于2025年4月1日起在广州期货交易所正式办理交割业务,但其首次交割将于2025年6月进 行。 2025年3月19日,广州期货交易所公告了多晶硅期货首批指定交割仓库,包括中储发展股份有限公司、 中国物流股份有限公司等6家仓储企业,以及四川永祥股份有限公司、内蒙古大全新能源有限公司等6家 厂库,这些指定交割仓库的确定为多晶硅期货的交割提供了重要的基础设施保障。 目前,广期所正在持续推进多晶硅期货交割业务的准备工作,开展对会员、投资者、交割仓库、质检机 构的业务培训,积极跟踪多晶硅期货产业客户参与情况、仓单注册生成情况,保障多晶硅期货交割业务 平稳运行。 多晶硅期货交割相关规则明确: 1、限仓制度:自2025年5月6日收盘后,非期货公司会员、客户所持有的ps2506合约限仓标准为250手。 限仓制度的实施有助于防止市场过度集中,保障市场的公平性和稳定性。 3、包装和仓储要求:对多晶硅包装物的质量、标识、型号标注等进行了详细规定,要求使用洁净的聚 乙烯袋进行密封包装等。同时明确了交割品的贮存要求,如应储存在清洁、干燥的环境中等,并对仓单 有效期、入库生产日期限制等作出规定,以 ...