Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with the dollar index hitting a low of 96.98, the lowest since March 2022, due to rising optimism around US trade agreements and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The US economic data for May indicates a decline in personal consumption and income, raising concerns about economic growth, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The Senate's modifications to the tax bill are projected to increase the US debt burden by trillions, complicating the passage of the bill for Republican lawmakers [1] Group 2: European Market Sentiment - There is a significant shift in investor confidence towards European markets, with over $100 billion flowing into European equity funds since 2025, a threefold increase, while the US market has seen an outflow of $87 billion, doubling from the previous year [6] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde noted that market forces and investor confidence are increasingly favoring Europe [6] Group 3: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar, Euro, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc all showed slight declines against the US dollar across various time frames, indicating a general weakening of these currencies [4][6] - The Euro is sensitive to inflation data, which could impact expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts, with the market currently not expecting a rate cut until December [7] Group 4: Canadian Dollar Outlook - The Canadian dollar is experiencing renewed market optimism due to the resumption of trade negotiations with the US, following the withdrawal of a digital tax that had previously stalled talks [11] - Despite a surprising 0.1% decline in Canada's April GDP, optimistic market sentiment and expectations of potential US rate cuts are expected to support the Canadian dollar in the short term [11] Group 5: Swiss Franc Weakness - The USD/CHF pair is trading weakly, with the Swiss franc hitting a ten-year low, as the KOF leading indicator fell to 96.1, significantly below market expectations [12] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates to 0% and indicated the possibility of entering negative interest territory if downside risks increase, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in Switzerland [12]

欧洲央行管委诺特：我们不能排除欧洲央行再次降息的可能性。 ...

智通财经6月27日电，欧洲央行管委诺特表示，不排除欧洲央行再次降息的可能性。 ...

美国经济在第一季度收缩幅度大于此前预期之后仍保持弹性。5月耐用品订单增长16.4%，每周申请失 业救济人数温和增长23.6万人，第一季度GDP收缩0.5%，而不是之前预计的0.2%。在美联储独立性受到 威胁之际，美元保持了隔夜的下行轨迹。《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普可能会比平时更早任命鲍威尔 主席的继任者，以削弱目前的鹰派立场。Bannockburn的Marc Chandler写道："如此直接地影响美联储的 企图，不会受到投资者的欢迎。" 裕信银行投资研究所的安德烈亚斯·里斯在一次网络研讨会上表示，预计欧洲央行将在当前周期内再降 息一次。据裕信银行经济学家预计，9月降息25个基点将使存款利率降至1.75%，"基本上（降息）就结 束了。"货币市场目前认为，下一次降息更有可能在10月。里斯表示，欧洲经济增长料将"相当疲软"但 不会大幅放缓，通胀率可能横向波动，徘徊在2%左右。 周五（6月27日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金短线维持下跌走势，截至目前报3323.50美元/盎司，跌幅 0.54%，今日开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3341.40美元/盎司，最低触及3323.00美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 【CO ...

裕信银行：欧洲央行预计将在9月完成降息周期 金十数据6月26日讯，裕信银行投资研究所的安德烈亚斯·里斯在一次网络研讨会上表示，预计欧洲央行 将在当前周期内再降息一次。据裕信银行经济学家预计，9月降息25个基点将使存款利率降至 1.75%，"基本上（降息）就结束了。"货币市场目前认为，下一次降息更有可能在10月。里斯表示，欧 洲经济增长料将"相当疲软"但不会大幅放缓，通胀率可能横向波动，徘徊在2%左右。 ...

Group 1 - The report by Dutch cooperative bank's forex strategist Jan Fowler indicates that the strengthening of the euro may lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider further interest rate cuts [1] - Despite the ECB signaling that its rate-cutting cycle may be nearing an end, a significant rise in the euro could sway decision-makers towards implementing additional cuts [1] - The strengthening euro poses challenges for European companies, which are already facing pressures from "tariff-related uncertainties" [1] Group 2 - The Dutch cooperative bank now forecasts that the EUR/USD exchange rate will reach 1.20 within 12 months, revising its previous estimate of 18 months to achieve this level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may consider interest rate cuts despite fluctuations in oil prices, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1 - The ECB's interest rates have returned to neutral levels, suggesting a balanced approach to monetary policy [1] - Neutral interest rates are not considered the terminal rates, implying that further adjustments may be possible in the future [1] - Oil prices are not seen as a sufficient indicator for the ECB to make policy changes, highlighting the bank's broader economic considerations [1]

据英国金融时报：欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示，尽管油市波动，欧洲央行仍可能降息。 ...

智通财经6月24日电，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示，尽管存在油价波动，但欧洲央行仍可能降息。 ...

特朗普要鲍威尔降息一个百分点 美国总统特朗普说，他即将公布下一任美国联邦储备局主席的人选，并称优秀的美联储主席会降低利率。 特朗普星期五（6月6日）在空军一号告诉记者，下任美联储主席的人选很快会公布。在被询及美联储前理事沃什（Kevin Walsh）是否为热门人选时，特朗 普说："他获得很高的评价。" 沃什曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事，特朗普去年底胜选后，据传他是受考虑的财长人选之一。 根据法律，美国总统提名的美联储主席人选须获参议院批准。特朗普在首届任期于2017年11月提名现任美联储主席鲍威尔，他在2018年2月上任，并在2022 年拜登前总统执政期间连任，任期将在2026年5月结束。 美联储历来极少一次过降息一整个百分点，上一次这么做是2020年3月冠病大流行暴发初期。 去年9月至12月，美联储连续降息三次共一个百分点，后来基于通胀预期仍高于2%的长期目标，关税措施对通胀的影响也未明朗，今年至今都按兵不动。 美国星期五发布的数据显示就业市场新增工作跌至两年新低，但失业率仍持稳于4.2%，市场大多预期美联储本月会继续按兵不动，要到9月才恢复降息，估 计今年内降息两次达0.5%。 欧洲央行自去 ...