Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the strong euro may have negative consequences, with the euro rising 14% to 1.18 against the dollar, contrary to expectations of parity this year [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that while the current exchange rate of 1.18 is manageable, a rise above 1.20 would complicate matters significantly [2] - The strong euro is lowering import prices, which could dampen inflation, while increasing export costs, impacting the trade-dependent European economy amid trade tensions with the US [2] Group 2 - Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at PIMCO, warned that if the euro reaches 1.25 against the dollar, the ECB may need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mitigate inflation and economic impacts [3] - The ECB has already halved interest rates to 2% since June 2024, but the Federal Reserve's rates remain significantly higher, leading to unusual capital flows towards Europe [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the dollar is facing issues, prompting investors to seek alternatives, although she did not directly address the impact on monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns are rising within the ECB as inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% mid-term target in June, with expectations of a drop to 1.6% next year [4] - Pooja Kumra from TD Securities warned that a strong euro combined with US tariffs could lead the eurozone back into a deflationary environment similar to the 2010s [4] - There is a dilemma for the ECB regarding currency intervention, as unilateral actions could backfire, and a prominent decision-maker noted that global central banks generally avoid such interventions [4] Group 4 - Some investors remain optimistic, with Mike Riddell from Fidelity International stating that the EU's significant trade surplus supports the euro's strength, suggesting that policymakers' complaints about the strong euro are unfounded [4] - Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic remarked that the current exchange rate is not abnormal and has been stable compared to historical levels since the euro's inception [4]

| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation is performing as expected, with an anticipated rise in summer inflation data and a gradual cooling of the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in June, but there is a divergence among officials regarding future rate paths, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two rate cuts this year [1] - Powell emphasized the need to observe summer data before making decisions, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding tariff impacts on inflation [1] Group 2 - Despite pressure from Trump for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has not yet lowered rates this year, primarily to assess whether tariff-induced price increases will lead to persistent inflation [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, and the ECB is prepared to address complex economic situations [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey noted that the direction of interest rates is downward, attributing current inflation to administrative pricing factors amid signs of economic and labor market weakness [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing a delicate balance regarding its decision on future interest rate cuts as inflation continues to cool down [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation rate in June increased slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% in May, while core inflation remained stable at 2.3% [1] - Service sector inflation saw only a minor increase, providing some comfort to policymakers [1] Future Projections - The economist predicts that inflation will likely remain below 2% for most of the next two years, driven by expectations of falling oil prices [1] - The analysis suggests that the battle against inflation has largely been won, but this creates a challenging decision for the ECB regarding the end of the current easing cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Eurozone, which reached the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% in June, is expected to decline in the coming months due to falling oil prices [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The recent rise in inflation was primarily driven by a surge in oil prices, which spiked over 10% due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East [1] - As oil prices are projected to decrease at the end of the month, the inflation rate is likely to follow suit [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is expected to lead the ECB to pause its actions later this month [1] - Tariff measures are anticipated to suppress European exports and exert downward pressure on commodity prices, which may prompt the ECB to implement interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：任何进一步的降息幅度都将很有限。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，欧洲央行KAZAKS表示，任何进一步的降息都是小幅度的。 ...

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：欧元进一步大幅上涨可能会增加再次降息的理由。 ...

欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯称，欧元进一步大幅上涨可能增加再次降息的理由。 ...

Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar is facing multiple pressures, with the dollar index hitting a low of 96.98, the lowest since March 2022, due to rising optimism around US trade agreements and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The US economic data for May indicates a decline in personal consumption and income, raising concerns about economic growth, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The Senate's modifications to the tax bill are projected to increase the US debt burden by trillions, complicating the passage of the bill for Republican lawmakers [1] Group 2: European Market Sentiment - There is a significant shift in investor confidence towards European markets, with over $100 billion flowing into European equity funds since 2025, a threefold increase, while the US market has seen an outflow of $87 billion, doubling from the previous year [6] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde noted that market forces and investor confidence are increasingly favoring Europe [6] Group 3: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar, Euro, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc all showed slight declines against the US dollar across various time frames, indicating a general weakening of these currencies [4][6] - The Euro is sensitive to inflation data, which could impact expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts, with the market currently not expecting a rate cut until December [7] Group 4: Canadian Dollar Outlook - The Canadian dollar is experiencing renewed market optimism due to the resumption of trade negotiations with the US, following the withdrawal of a digital tax that had previously stalled talks [11] - Despite a surprising 0.1% decline in Canada's April GDP, optimistic market sentiment and expectations of potential US rate cuts are expected to support the Canadian dollar in the short term [11] Group 5: Swiss Franc Weakness - The USD/CHF pair is trading weakly, with the Swiss franc hitting a ten-year low, as the KOF leading indicator fell to 96.1, significantly below market expectations [12] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates to 0% and indicated the possibility of entering negative interest territory if downside risks increase, reflecting ongoing economic weakness in Switzerland [12]