高盛现在预计欧洲央行的最后一次降息将在九月，而非七月。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented its fourth interest rate cut of the year, marking the eighth cut since June 2024, in response to inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission [1][3] - Following a 25 basis point reduction, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operations rate, and marginal lending facility rate are now set at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [3] - Current inflation in the Eurozone is near the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with forecasts indicating an average inflation rate of 2.0% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, reflecting lower energy prices and a stronger euro [5] Group 2 - European stock markets have performed exceptionally well, with the Stoxx 50 index rising 10.6% year-to-date and the German stock market up 22%, reaching historical highs [6][7] - The German government's approval of a €46 billion ($52 billion) tax relief plan for businesses is part of efforts to stimulate economic growth, which is expected to gain momentum from 2026 onwards [7] - Market participants view Europe as a safer investment destination amid challenges in the US economy, with a significant increase in inquiries about European investments over the past two months [8]

交易员提高欧洲央行降息押注，预计今年将再降息33个基点。 ...

交易员增加对欧洲央行降息的预期，预计今年还将再降33个基点。 ...

金十数据6月5日讯，外汇策略师Karamanis表示，市场已经完全消化了欧洲央行降息的影响，与此同 时，预计欧洲央行行长拉加德将采取谨慎的观望态度。目前波动性预期受到抑制，这不仅仅是因为市场 预计欧洲央行今天的决定不会带来什么意外。更重要的是，利率与外汇之间的传统联系在最近几周有所 减弱。这意味着，即使货币市场对欧洲央行年底前政策路径的定价出现显著变化，也可能不足以对欧元 产生实质性的冲击。 策略师：欧洲央行决议料难以对欧元造成冲击 ...

经济学家预计，欧元区5月通胀率可能接近或低于欧洲央行2%的目标，这将巩固欧洲央行下周降息的预 期。西班牙通胀放缓主要得益于休闲活动价格下降和电力价格走软，核心通胀率也略有下降。通胀持续 下降使市场预期欧洲央行下周将降息0.25个百分点至2.0%，这将是自2024年6月以来的第八次降息。欧 洲央行经济学家预计下周将下调通胀预测，此前3月的预测未考虑美国关税影响。美国关税上升可能削 弱欧元区通胀，因欧洲商品需求减少，且中国廉价商品可能转向欧洲。欧元升值以及能源价格因全球经 济增长放缓而走低，也对抑制通胀起到一定作用。欧元区内，第一季度薪资增长放缓，缓解了劳动密集 型服务行业的提价压力。欧洲央行有望成为首个将通胀恢复至目标水平的主要央行，而美联储则担心关 税可能引发更高通胀。欧元区经济增长部分得益于美国公司为应对关税而囤积欧盟商品，但整体通胀压 力有所缓解。 周三（6月4日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.13附近，截止北京时间11:26分，欧元兑美元 报价1.1379，涨幅0.06%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1372。西班牙和法国5月物价涨幅放缓，为欧 洲央行降息铺平道路。西班牙5月通胀率从4月的2 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in May, the lowest level since January 2022, driven by a decrease in service inflation and energy prices [2][3][5] - The Eurozone's inflation rate for May dropped to 1.9%, significantly lower than the 2.2% recorded in April, primarily due to a decline in service inflation from 4.0% to 3.2% [2][4] - Major Eurozone economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain reported inflation rates of 2.1%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The market fully expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% [6][8] - There is speculation that this may be the last rate cut in the current cycle, with future decisions potentially influenced by trade uncertainties and fiscal stimulus measures [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause further rate cuts after June, as they assess the urgency for additional monetary easing [7][8]

桑坦德银行：欧洲央行下周降息已板上钉钉 金十数据5月30日讯，桑坦德银行的G10宏观和固定收益策略研究主管Antonio Villarroya在一份报告中指 出，欧洲央行下周四再降息25个基点、将存款利率降至2.00%已板上钉钉。他表示，问题在于这是否会 是本轮周期的最后一次宽松。Villarroya认为，尽管再次降息的概率低于市场当前定价，但欧洲央行至 少会在与美国关税相关的不确定性消散之前，保留进一步降息的可能性。他指出，未来几个月欧元短期 利率可能较当前水平走高，但这种重新定价可能不会立即发生。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro's performance is likely to continue being dominated by the US dollar's movements [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank on June 5 [1] - The US PCE data is expected to be the main catalyst for the euro today, potentially keeping it within the short-term range of 1.1300 to 1.1400 USD [1]

路透调查：经济学家对于欧洲央行在6月之后的下一次降息时机没有形成多数意见，但预计至少还将有 一次降息。 ...