这周收盘刚放下电脑，老伙计们的消息就炸了，全是问"帮主，四中全会开完沪指都创新高了，下周还能涨不？" 说实话，这问题我做20年财经记者，几乎 每周都有人问，但这周问的人尤其多——毕竟有人刚追进去就遇着板块轮动，有人拿着票磨了半个月，眼看别人赚钱急得慌。 说到底，股市里没人能精准掐准下周的涨跌，我这20年的经验就俩字：看长。政策给的方向、产业的趋势、公司的盈利，这三样才是决定最终赚不赚钱的关 键。下周咱们接着看，但别慌，心里有主线，就不怕短期的风风雨雨。 不过话说回来，我做了20年财经记者，见多了这种"变盘节点"的行情。2015年"十三五"规划出来那阵，也是有人天天问下周涨跌，结果短期晃了晃，后来政 策盯准的高端制造板块涨了小半年。咱们中长线投资者，真不用盯着单日的K线纠结，就像我常说的，早盘那二十分钟的波动都是情绪乱撞，10点后量能稳 了、关键位置守住了，那才是真信号。 所以下周的行情，我的看法很简单：短期震荡大概率免不了，但跌不动的底气还在——政策托着、资金慢慢进、企业盈利也在修复，这都是实实在在的支 撑。要是手里的票符合科技自立、消费升级这些大方向，业绩也没问题，那就踏实拿着；要是纯属追热点凑热闹，那不管 ...

Core Insights - The "Two New" policy has significantly boosted retail sales in the home appliance sector, with refrigerator sales increasing by 48.3% and television sales by 26.8% in the first three quarters of the year [1] - Industrial enterprises have accelerated equipment updates, with machinery procurement amounts rising by 9.4% year-on-year [1] - The policy has effectively stimulated consumer demand for green, smart, and high-quality products, contributing to industrial upgrades and economic growth [1] Group 1 - The implementation of the "Two New" policy has led to substantial fiscal support, with national public budget expenditures reaching 20.81 trillion yuan, including 710.5 billion yuan for science and technology, marking a 6.5% increase [1] - Local governments are aligning their funding and support policies with central directives to ensure the smooth execution of the "Two New" initiatives, such as equipment purchase subsidies and digital transformation incentives [2] - The policy aims to benefit both consumers and enterprises, emphasizing the importance of effective implementation to maximize its impact [2] Group 2 - The "Two New" policy not only facilitates equipment updates but also drives technological advancements, enhancing product quality and production efficiency [3] - To further strengthen the policy's impact, there is a need for improved policy coordination, addressing supply-demand bottlenecks, and optimizing the business environment [3] - Continuous implementation of the "Two New" policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and transform policy effectiveness into developmental momentum for the Chinese economy [3]

Core Insights - The integration of brand IP with fragmented reading experiences is attracting younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, who are willing to pay a premium for emotional value [1] - The shift from universal subsidies to targeted subsidies in Beijing's consumption policies aligns with the needs of Generation Z, focusing on essential household products and smart home devices [3] - The rapid logistics improvements, including "minute-level delivery" and reduced delivery times, enhance consumer experience and meet the demands of fast-paced urban lifestyles [4] Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Young consumers are increasingly motivated by emotional value and personal interests, with over 40% of them willing to spend for these reasons [1] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival in Beijing is characterized by government subsidies and platform discounts, making it easier for consumers to shop without extensive preparation [2] - The emergence of new shopping experiences, such as unique brand offerings and cultural integration in shopping districts, reflects the evolving preferences of younger consumers [5][8] Group 2: Policy and Economic Impact - Beijing's policies, including the implementation of digital product purchase subsidies and consumption vouchers, are designed to stimulate consumer spending and upgrade consumption structures [3] - The targeted subsidy strategy for 2025 focuses on essential goods, aligning with the consumption characteristics of Generation Z, which prioritize both necessity and quality [3] - The government's collaboration with platforms to provide financial incentives ensures that subsidy funds are directed towards meeting consumer needs effectively [3] Group 3: Logistics and Delivery Innovations - The introduction of advanced logistics technologies has significantly improved delivery times, with some products being delivered within minutes, compared to previous delays of days [4] - Companies like JD Logistics and Cainiao are leveraging technology to enhance delivery efficiency, which is crucial for meeting the expectations of modern consumers [4] - The support from government policies aimed at reducing logistics costs further facilitates the development of a more efficient logistics ecosystem in Beijing [4] Group 4: Cultural and Market Dynamics - The rise of new shopping districts, such as Dajixiang, showcases a blend of traditional and modern consumer experiences, attracting young shoppers with unique offerings [5][8] - The focus on local cultural elements and the promotion of domestic brands align with government initiatives to foster a new wave of consumer trends [7][8] - The revitalization of historical neighborhoods through modern retail experiences reflects a strategic approach to enhance urban consumer environments while preserving cultural heritage [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) is experiencing a rebound with significant net inflows, indicating strong investor interest in the food and beverage sector, particularly amidst recent market fluctuations [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of October 24, 2025, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) has seen a trading volume of 21.35 million yuan, with a net subscription of 18 million shares [3]. - The fund has reached a total share count of 7.804 billion, marking a one-year high as of October 23, 2025 [4]. - Over the past week, the fund has recorded continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day inflow of 21.634 million yuan, totaling 76.619 million yuan in net inflows [4]. Market Trends - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) tracks a diverse index covering essential sectors such as alcohol, beverages, and food, which enhances its resilience against single-industry volatility, making it suitable for long-term investment in consumer upgrades [5]. - The Central Securities A500 ETF (159360) has also shown positive performance, with a 1.05% increase and a trading volume of 37.40 million yuan as of October 24, 2025 [4]. Industry Insights - Recent reports indicate a significant shift in the beverage market, with the reactivation of the "Wahaha" brand by Zong Fuli, reversing a previous decision to introduce a new brand [5]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized the importance of boosting consumption and effective investment, aiming to strengthen the domestic market and enhance economic resilience [6]. Analyst Opinions - CITIC Securities has noted that the autumn sugar and wine fair met expectations, with the industry actively engaging consumers and expanding market demand. They predict that the industry fundamentals may bottom out in the third quarter of 2025, with the second half of the year showing potential recovery trends [7].

Core Insights - China's GDP for the first three quarters grew by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a steady economic performance amidst a complex international environment [1][2] - The quarterly GDP growth rates showed a mild recovery trend: 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3, suggesting a gradual accumulation of internal economic momentum [1][2] Economic Overview - The total GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a growth rate that outpaced both the previous year and the same period last year by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [2] - Industrial production demonstrated strong resilience, with a 6.2% year-on-year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 9.7% and 9.6% respectively [2] - The service sector also showed steady recovery, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in added value, led by the information transmission, software, and IT services sector, which grew by 11.2% [2] Consumption and Employment - The consumer market continued to recover, with total retail sales of consumer goods growing by 4.5% year-on-year, driven by strong sales in essential and some upgraded goods, with categories like food, sports and entertainment products, and jewelry seeing retail growth rates exceeding 10% [2][3] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown significant effects, with retail sales in categories such as home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment also growing around 20% [3] - Employment and prices remained stable, with an average urban unemployment rate of 5.2% and a slight decrease of 0.1% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year [3] New Growth Drivers - New economic drivers are accelerating, with the added value of the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry growing by 29.8% and the production of new energy vehicles increasing by 29.7% [3] - The total import and export volume reached 33,607.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, and private enterprises' imports and exports grew by 7.8%, accounting for 57.0% of the total [3] Expert Insights - Experts noted that the economic growth rate is relatively high compared to global standards, with the IMF predicting a global growth rate of 3.2% for 2025 [4] - Recommendations for enhancing consumer capacity include improving wage determination mechanisms and increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in initial distribution [5] - The importance of innovation and R&D investment is emphasized, with R&D intensity increasing from 1.91% in 2012 to 2.68% in 2024, and a significant rise in the share of basic research funding [5][6]

10月22日至23日，上海以"时尚+消费"双主线点燃城市活力，利郎LESS IS MORE 2025"由石至形"设计师联合系列发布秀与2025上海"进口嗨购节"暨"国 别商品文化缤纷月"启动仪式接连登场，通过设计赋能、文化融合与政策创新，展现上海"文旅商体展"联动促进消费升级的画面。 整个系列以"石"为起点，以"结构"为形态，从安平桥蕴含的石构智慧出发，延伸到现代几何建筑的结构语言，像是在时间与空间的折叠中，探寻当代男 装从自然之物到文化符号的演变过程。 消费联动：进口嗨购节打造全场景消费生态 10月23日，2025上海"进口嗨购节"暨"国别商品文化缤纷月"在虹桥品汇启动，通过"进口精品+国别新品"双主线，覆盖"食、行、游、购、娱"五大场 景。 上海市商务委二级巡视员刘朝晖在致辞中表示，上海"进口嗨购节"自2020年首次举办以来，累计推出近300项进口主题活动，带动进口商品销售累计达 60亿元。"国别商品文化缤纷月"着力搭建国际经贸合作平台和人文交流平台，推动国别文化交流和共融。 为整合品牌优势，凝聚平台资源，今年首次将"进口嗨购节"和"国别商品文化缤纷月"两个主题的活动合并举办。活动期间，10余家"6+36 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive growth of Longxin General (隆鑫通用) in the motorcycle industry, particularly in terms of profit and market share, following its restructuring and the strategic leadership of Zuo Zongshen, a prominent figure in the motorcycle sector [4][9][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Longxin General expects a net profit of 1.52 billion to 1.62 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.13% to 80.26% [4]. - In contrast, Chuncheng Power (春风动力) reported a net profit of 1.42 billion yuan for the same period, showing a year-on-year growth of 30.9% [6]. - Longxin General's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 9.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, with a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, reflecting an 82.3% growth [17]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Longxin General, along with Chuncheng Power and Qianjiang Motorcycle (钱江摩托), is recognized as one of the "three strong" players in the domestic motorcycle market, with a market share of 14.3% in the 250cc and above segment [13]. - The company has maintained its position as the leading exporter of motorcycles for 19 consecutive years, with a market share of 14.2% in the 250cc and above category, an increase of 5 percentage points from 2022 [12][13]. - Longxin's high-end motorcycle brand "Wuji" has successfully established a foothold in the market, contributing to its export strength and overall performance [14][15]. Group 3: Global Market Opportunities - The domestic market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is experiencing significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 38.7% in sales during the first four months of 2025 [19]. - The global market for motorcycles with a displacement of 250cc and above is estimated to be around 5.5 million units in 2024, providing substantial opportunities for domestic manufacturers to expand internationally [19]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Dividends - Longxin General has consistently maintained positive operating and free cash flows, with a strong cash conversion capability reflected in its financial statements [21][25]. - As of mid-2025, the company reported nearly 8.6 billion yuan in cash, with minimal short-term and long-term debt [28]. - The company has increased its dividend payout significantly, with a total dividend of 820 million yuan in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 73.3%, which is notably higher than the previous average of around 30% [32].

随着骑行、滑雪、旅行等多元场景需求的显著增长，当前运动相机市场呈现消费升级趋势：用户需求正从单一功能记录，向专业级画质、便携穿戴、稳定防 抖、系统生态等场景化应用演进，这些创新点也成为驱动消费者购买运动相机的核心因素。大疆在多品类的持续霸榜，充分证明了其领先的技术生态已构筑 起牢固的市场护城河。 大疆Osmo系列运动相机的热销源于两方面：一方面，随着Osmo产品线的不断扩展和成熟，它已成为视频创作者、各类博主以及热衷生活记录的消费者在轻 量化、智能化视频创作领域的优选方案。另一方面，日益完善的Osmo生态体系，不仅赋能专业用户高效创作，更显著降低了高质量影像制作的门槛，使更 多普通消费者能够轻松捕捉精彩瞬间，提升日常记录的体验感。 双十一期间，大疆产品在京东平台销售表现全线领跑。大疆运动相机全系包揽京东运动相机金榜多个品类的TOP席位。其中，Osmo 360全景相机在"户外全 景运动相机热卖榜"上已连续45天位居榜首。 ...

#卤味价格高涨头部企业业绩为何下滑#即使卤味的价格居高不下，但是对于全国化的卤味连锁头部企业 而言，2024年的业绩并不如意： 煌上煌 2024年年报显示，公司全年实现营业收入17.39亿元，同比下滑 9.44%，创下自2018年以来的新低； 紫燕食品 2024年实现营业收入33.63亿元，同比下降5.28%； 周黑 鸭 2024年全年实现收益24.51亿元，同比减少10.7%；绝味食品2024年实现营业收入约为62.57亿元，同 比下降13.84%。 中国食品 行业研究员朱丹蓬认为，卤味企业面临的困境是多方面因素造成的。过去几 年的快速扩张导致市场饱和度增加，竞争愈发激烈。其次，消费升级背景下，消费者对产品品质、口味 和健康的要求不断提高，而部分品牌在产品创新和品质提升上未能跟上步伐。最后，线上渠道的崛起和 新零售 模式的发展，也对传统线下门店模式造成了冲击。 ...

这里是上海徐汇区的西岸滨江，通过一系列的空间再造和活化利用，曾经的水泥筒仓、船坞旧址等工业遗存摇身一变成为一处热闹的文旅商业 地标。 就在刚刚过去的周末，这里还上演了一场极限运动巡回赛，吸引了来自全球34个国家和地区的近900名运动员参与竞技。同时，还跨界联动200 多家潮流品牌，打造出集赛事、艺术、零售、餐饮于一体的复合型消费动线，共有约8万人次到场观赛，同比2024年增加了60%。 上海西岸集团副总经理陈安达介绍，2025年升级了大量嘉年华区域，包括科技和运动结合的产品，未来会带来很多新的产业增量。西岸从金秋 开始，是一个"商旅文体展"非常密集的一个状态，希望它能够形成多主体之间的一种机制上的联动。 与此同时，上海的老商圈、老线路也纷纷通过盘活资源、场景重塑、业态升级等多种方式集聚人气。新天地商圈以海派石库门里弄为特色载 体，新开发的东台里还配备了6500平方米的全景天幕，超六成品牌推出露台或者外摆区，持续发力露台经济。 央视网消息：当前，我国消费升级正处在关键时期。作为全球第二大消费市场，市场的扩容升级过程中蕴含着重大机遇。2025年以来，各 地消费焕新亮点持续显现，在打造国际消费中心城市的过程中，上海 ...