Market Overview - On January 6, 2026, A-shares exhibited a strong bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a ten-year high, supported by significant trading volume exceeding 28,322 billion yuan [1][3][4] - The trading volume on this day reached a recent high, with an increase of approximately 2,650 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating strong market activity despite a net outflow of 163 billion yuan [1][3] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as brain-computer interfaces, insurance, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals showed strong performance, with securities playing a crucial role in stabilizing the market [1][3] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit increased, with a notable 5.97% profit effect from limit-up stocks, indicating a healthy market sentiment [3] Investment Sentiment - The market's bullish momentum is attributed to two main factors: a rare ten-year bullish trend in A-shares and the government's clear commitment to stabilizing the market [4] - Despite the positive outlook, caution is advised as the market may experience corrections after consecutive days of gains, suggesting a need for investors to manage risks and positions carefully [5]

格隆汇1月6日｜加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场股票和投资组合策略主管Christopher Harvey指出，鉴于持 续的通胀，投资者对美联储今年将再执行两次降息的预期可能过于乐观。他还建议，在目睹股价近年飙 升后，美国企业界可能会调低对利润进一步增长的预期，从而削弱牛市案例的一个关键支柱。此外，正 如周末的事件凸显了2026年可能迅速重现的未知因素一样，Harvey警告称，接下来的几个月可能会 以"剧烈的风险厌恶期"为特征。他敦促客户通过转向高质量资产来为动荡做好投资组合布局。Harvey的 话值得倾听，因为他是去年少数几个正确预测股市将从4月关税动荡中迅速大幅反弹的策略师之一。华 尔街的其他人士也指出，虽然委内瑞拉事件本身是局限的，但投资者应保持警惕。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity due to multiple positive factors [2][8] - Macro policy cycles indicate that 2026 marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with various departments intensively launching supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment [2][8] - Institutional funds, particularly in December, showed a trend of early entry into the market, with insurance funds expected to contribute to a strong spring market due to currency appreciation driving foreign capital inflow [2][8] Group 2 - The A50 ETF and A100 ETF are part of the "A series" of broad-based ETFs launched by Huabao Fund, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [2][3] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, indicating a strategic approach to capturing market growth [2][3]

每经记者｜章光日 每经编辑｜吴永久 沪指冲破4000点，创下十年新高！在2026年开局火爆的市场氛围中，一个板块正以凌厉涨势占据"C 位"——保险股。其中，万亿巨头中国平安股价收于74.32元，创近4年新高，成为2025年第四季度以来 表现最亮眼的"A股新七舰"成员。牛市之下，保险股为何能成为领涨先锋？这波行情是昙花一现，还是 刚刚开始？ 牛市是保险股行情的关键驱动因素 2026年开年两个交易日，A股表现强势，沪指迅速站上4000点，并创下近十年来的新高。而板块方面， 科技板块和红利板块皆有不错表现。其中，保险板块作为红利板块的代表表现尤其亮眼，新华保险和中 国太保股价创下历史新高，而市值过万亿元的中国平安和中国人寿股价也在不断逼近历史高点。 那么，近期保险板块为何能够领涨A股呢？国金证券复盘发现，2017年以来，保险股表现与大盘表现高 度相关，主要源于保险公司高度依赖利差，权益市场表现对当期利润影响极大，并且这一规律自2022年 来持续强化。因此，牛市是保险股行情的关键驱动因素，市场上涨预期下，保险板块通常具备较强的业 绩弹性与估值修复动能。 政策面支持保险公司增加权益市场的配置，而2025年权益市场的良好 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 4083.67 points, with a daily increase of 1.5% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 2.81 trillion, an increase of 263.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The number of advancing stocks was 4,107, while 1,222 stocks declined, with 391 stocks rising over 5% and 28 stocks falling over 5% [1] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a strong upward trend, with continuous inflow of new capital, indicating no immediate concerns about the current rally [1] - There is an acknowledgment of potential selling pressure and the need for adjustments, but this does not warrant a bearish outlook or reduction in positions [1] Sector Performance - The brain-computer interface sector saw a significant increase of 7.11%, continuing its momentum from the previous day [2] - The non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors experienced notable price increases, with titanium dioxide up 5.85%, copper up 4.11%, and other metals showing similar gains [3] - The non-bank financial sector also performed well, with insurance stocks rising by 4.22% and brokerage firms by 3.53% [3][4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on individual stock performance rather than index movements, and to maintain a diversified approach [1] - The current market environment requires a higher tolerance for volatility, as increased trading volume leads to greater fluctuations in individual stocks [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to remain strong, with upcoming satellite launches serving as a significant catalyst for growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index experienced a 16% increase in 2025, marking three consecutive years of double-digit growth, with a cumulative return of 78% from 2023 to 2025. Historical data suggests a high likelihood of significant volatility (over 10% up or down) in 2026 following such performance [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Predictions - In the past century, there have been nine instances of the S&P 500 achieving three consecutive years of double-digit growth, with seven of those instances resulting in over 10% volatility in the following year [4]. - The most recent similar occurrence was from 2019 to 2021, which was followed by a 19% decline in 2022 due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in response to inflation [4]. - The absence of major events like midterm elections in 2026 shifts focus to the upcoming nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair, with current chair Jerome Powell's term ending in May [4]. Group 2: Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has a 40% chance of being nominated, seen as aligned with Trump's monetary policy intentions, which may lead to expectations of significant interest rate cuts [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller, both categorized as "doves" compared to Powell [5][6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Scenarios - The core scenario anticipates a reduction of the policy interest rate to between 3.0% and 3.25%, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 [6]. - A bullish scenario suggests that a dovish new Fed chair could lower rates below 3%, potentially driving economic growth and stock market gains [8]. - Conversely, a bearish scenario posits that the Fed may need to raise rates again by the end of 2026 due to accelerating inflation and currency depreciation, despite a dovish chair [8]. Group 4: Market Projections - Under the core scenario, the S&P 500 index is projected to reach 7,750 points by the end of 2026, a 10% increase from 6,845 points at the end of 2025 [8]. - In a bullish scenario, the index could rise by 30% to 9,000 points, while in a bearish scenario, it could fall by 30% to 5,000 points [8].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is characterized as a year of opportunities in the Chinese stock market, with major indices in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing significant gains, particularly the ChiNext Index leading with nearly 50% increase [2][3]. Market Performance - A-shares performance: - Shanghai Composite Index: +18.41% - Shenzhen Component Index: +29.87% - ChiNext Index: +49.57% [3] - Hong Kong stocks performance: - Hang Seng Index: +27.77% - Hang Seng Tech Index: +23.45% - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index: +22.27% [3] - U.S. stocks performance: - Nasdaq: +20.36% - S&P 500: +16.39% [3] Private Equity Industry Insights - Despite challenges such as "tariff shocks," 2025 remains a fruitful year for the private equity industry, with quantitative private equity gaining popularity and performance [4]. - The top 20 private equity firms include 14 quantitative and 5 subjective firms, with only 1 mixed-type firm [4]. - The leading firms by popularity include Ningbo Huafang Quantitative, Ri Dou Investment, Ming Huan Investment, Longqi Technology, and Liangpai Investment, all managing over 5 billion [5]. Fund Manager Highlights - Notable fund managers include: - Dan Bin, Liang Wenfeng, Lin Yuan, Li Bei, and Wu Yuefeng, with Dan Bin maintaining the top position [13][17]. - The majority of the top 20 fund managers focus on stock strategies, with 15 out of 20 fitting this category [14]. Popular Private Equity Products - Among the top 20 products, quantitative long products dominate with 12 entries, while subjective long products account for 5 [18]. - The top 5 products are managed by Chen Zhe from Nine Chapters Asset, Dan Bin from Dongfang Gangwan, Qiu Huiming and Xie Huanyu from Ming Huan Investment, Lu Wen from Lu Yuan Private Equity, and Wang Yiping from Evolutionary Theory Asset [19][22].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index surged after the opening, breaking the high point from November 14, 2025, and reaching the highest level since July 2015, closing at 4047.37 points, up 0.6% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.69% to 13923.61 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.46% to 3309.76 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index jumped 1.85% to 1429.42 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 567.525 billion yuan, with over 3500 stocks rising [1] Sector Highlights - The brain-computer interface sector continued to perform strongly, with several companies hitting the daily limit up, following a breakthrough in implant technology at Fudan University [3] - Semiconductor equipment stocks showed resilience, with companies like Jin Hai Tong hitting the daily limit up and others like Bei Fang Hua Chuang and Zhong Ke Fei Ce rising over 5%, reaching historical highs [3] - The solid-state battery concept saw significant gains, with Jin Long Yu hitting the daily limit up, as a Finnish company announced the launch of the world's first commercially viable all-solid-state battery [4] - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a rebound, with Lei Ke Defense achieving five consecutive limit-ups, following a capital increase announcement from China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation [4] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities expressed optimism about the spring market, suggesting a focus on growth sectors like electric equipment and renewable energy, as well as domestic demand improvement themes [5] - CITIC Securities noted that the cross-year market may exhibit characteristics of "growth leading and liquor accumulating," with a focus on sectors like snacks and dairy [5] - Huaxi Securities highlighted 2026 as a year of multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market, driven by macro policies and improving corporate earnings [6] - Guojin Securities projected 2026 to be the year of recoverable commercial rockets, emphasizing the importance of cost reduction through recoverable technology in the aerospace sector [7] - Tianfeng Securities recommended focusing on cosmetics, gold jewelry, and duty-free sectors, which are expected to grow amid the recovery of high-end consumption [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [1] - The macro policy cycle indicates that 2026, being the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, will see multiple departments introducing supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [1] - In terms of funding, institutional investments such as stock ETFs have begun to position themselves in December, and the influx of foreign capital due to currency appreciation is expected to strengthen the spring market [1] Group 2 - The expectation for the fundamental outlook and industrial cycle includes a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a moderate recovery in corporate profits anticipated for 2026, which will support market sentiment regarding profit turning points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, reaching a high of $4,455.48 and closing at $4,448.83, marking a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous close of $4,328.35 [1][3][5] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and then rebounded to a high of $4,455.48 during the day, ultimately closing at $4,448.83 with a daily range of $111.42 [3][5] - The market is currently observing a potential pullback due to profit-taking and anticipation of key economic data releases, such as the non-farm payroll report [3][5] Market Outlook - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may challenge historical highs again [3][5] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which could provide further support for gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential risks of a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range [7] - However, if the current momentum continues, there is potential for gold to reach $5,500-$6,000 [7] - Weekly analysis suggests that while there may be a pullback towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for re-entry into long positions [7][9] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,410 and $4,380, while resistance levels are at $4,480 and $4,500 [9] - For silver, support is noted at $75.10 and $74.10, with resistance at $78.00 and $79.30 [9]