策 略 研 究 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2025 年 07 月 19 日 经济预期谨慎，A 股缘何延续强势 一 周 回 顾 展 望 相关研究 - 证券分析师 券 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 研 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 究 ⚫ 一、2025 下半年经济增速可能相对上半年回落，政策重点仍偏向于调结构，是当前市场 的一致预期，A 股为什么能维持强势？1. 稳定资本市场预期政策，构建了 A 股对宏观扰 动的"隔离墙"，下行风险可控的预期深入人心。2. 反内卷建立了"短期景气亮点"和 "中期供需格局改善"逻辑的连接，上游周期和中游制造"看长做短"行情演绎更加顺 畅。3. 科技景气验证和中美贸谈判成果显现共振，强化了短期价值向成长切换行情。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 证 报 告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining discipline in investment strategies during a bull market, highlighting five key recommendations to avoid common pitfalls and maximize returns [1][16]. Group 1: Investment Discipline - Investors should adhere to their regular investment plans and continue systematic investment even in a bull market, avoiding the temptation to make large, impulsive investments [4][15]. - It is crucial to set specific limits for additional investments, such as a percentage of monthly income, and to avoid going "all in" [5][15]. - The tendency to sell existing investments to chase higher returns can lead to losses; therefore, investors should focus on holding quality funds [7][8]. Group 2: Profit Management - Caution is advised when considering adding to positions after realizing profits; a "pyramid" approach should be used, buying more at lower valuations and less as prices rise [11][15]. - Setting clear profit-taking targets before entering a position is essential, with recommendations to sell portions of holdings at predetermined profit levels [14][15]. - Maintaining awareness of market conditions and avoiding emotional decisions during periods of market euphoria is critical to prevent significant losses [13][15]. Group 3: General Market Awareness - The article warns that bull markets can create a false sense of security, and investors should remain vigilant against the risks of market bubbles and emotional trading [16]. - It is highlighted that the A-share market typically experiences short bull runs followed by longer bear markets, necessitating a calm and disciplined approach to investing [16].

Market Sentiment - The market suggests a bearish outlook, advising to consider shorting [1] - The market highlights the influence of key figures like "一姐" (Sister) during bear markets and CZ during bull markets [1] - The market emphasizes the dominance of Binance (币安) in shaping market trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the lessons learned from the 2015 stock market crash in China, emphasizing the importance of risk management, market awareness, and the need for continuous learning in investment practices [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Events and Historical Context - The article discusses the peak of the Chinese stock market at 5178 points on June 12, 2015, followed by a significant downturn where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 35% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 43% within 17 trading days [4]. - It highlights the massive IPO activities that led to a freezing of 6.7 trillion yuan in funds, marking a new high since the IPO restart in 2014 [4]. - The article notes the extreme volatility in the market post-crash, with multiple instances of "千股涨停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit up) and "千股跌停" (thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down) [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategies - The article advises against leveraging and financing in capital markets, citing that such practices often lead to significant losses during market downturns [5]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to respect the market and acknowledge their limitations, suggesting that many enter the market with unrealistic expectations [6]. - Continuous learning and experience accumulation are crucial for investors, as the market's nature requires adaptability and awareness of changing conditions [7]. Group 3: Personal Reflections and Lessons - The author shares personal anecdotes of individuals who suffered significant losses due to over-leveraging and heavy positions during the 2015 crash, illustrating the psychological impact of such experiences [5][6]. - The article stresses the importance of reflecting on past mistakes and learning from them to avoid repeating them in future market cycles [7]. - It concludes with a call for investors to focus on improving their understanding of market dynamics and to be patient, waiting for favorable conditions to invest [7].

Group 1 - The four major A-share indices initially weakened but later strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index leading with a 1.76% increase, resulting in over 3,500 stocks rising [1] - The leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, printed circuit boards, and CPO, while telecommunications, oil, and banking sectors lagged [1] - The stock with the highest consecutive gains was Shangwei New Materials, achieving seven consecutive limit-up days, indicating a positive market trend despite an incomplete consecutive gain lineup [1] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with the continuous increase in limit-up stocks over the past two days and the advancement of some consecutive gain stocks laying a foundation for upward market movement [2] - The AI and new energy sectors are driving market development, contributing to the positive outlook for A-shares [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent decline in bank stocks is influenced by changes in insurance company assessment periods, encouraging long-term investment strategies rather than short-term risk aversion [2][4][11] - The adjustment in bank stocks began on July 11, coinciding with a government policy announcement [3][4] - The banking sector is experiencing a historical shift, with non-performing loan rates expected to exceed net interest margins for the first time, indicating potential underlying issues [7][8] Group 2 - In the first quarter of this year, bank profits saw a decline for the first time in years, with the six major banks averaging a 2% decrease [9] - The banking sector has historically been conservative in profit reporting, with banks releasing hidden profits during economic downturns to stabilize the market [11] - Current valuations of bank stocks are considered average, but they still outperform other investment options like deposits, bonds, and real estate [12][13] Group 3 - Pop Mart reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, yet its stock price fell due to market dynamics [14][15] - The high degree of market crowding in sectors like new consumption, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials is noted, which can lead to short-term adjustments [19][20] - Despite high growth expectations, Pop Mart's current valuation appears reasonable compared to historical standards, with a projected PE ratio of 34 based on anticipated growth [22][23][29]

（原标题：和讯投顾刘文博：行情这么好，没满仓是最遗憾的事） 昨天蓝筹还信誓旦旦表示，只要今天大盘大幅下跌后有走强企稳或突破趋势，就会义无反顾冲进去。可 惜今天大盘走得十分平稳，基本"焊"在3500点，全天指数波动和震荡幅度极小，下午2点之后，基本就 在3500.1的位置横着不动，既没上涨也没下跌，连波动都几乎没有，根本找不到进场方向和买点。所以 昨天被"掏兜"，今天只回点血，我忍了，全天没进场机会，也只能忍着，不知道大家今天回本情况如 何。 今天指数同比昨日缩量1700亿，但整体量能仍在14500亿上方，这种量能级别已维持近20天。而且最近 20天，指数量能一直在20日均量线上方持续缓步攀升，平均股价连5天均线都没跌破，很明显，当下处 于毫无争议的牛市酝酿阶段。相信这20天的放量，大盘肯定在"憋大招"。也正因如此，蓝筹目前只有5 个"营"的仓位，让人寝食难安。现在我最想做的就是，要么等大盘杀下来抄底，要么等涨上去企稳后， 赶紧把5个"营"的仓位都冲进去。行情这么好，没满仓是我最遗憾的事，生怕哪天行情启动把我甩下 车。上涨途中总有坎坷，透过现象看本质，有量就有一切。 7月16日，和讯投顾刘文博称，今天A股收盘， ...

2025年7月12日，A股市场上演了一出惊心动魄的大戏。收盘钟声敲响，表面一片欣欣向荣，实则暗流涌动，无数疑问盘旋在投资者心头：这波冲顶， 是主力最后的狂欢，还是疯牛的序幕？散户，又将扮演怎样的角色？ 这场行情从上午九点半开盘便已拉开帷幕。证券和保险板块率先爆发，高开高走，涨幅一度超过2%。随后，银行板块也加入战局，指数屡创新高。白 酒板块紧随其后，贵州茅台更是一路扶摇直上，涨幅迅速突破1%。深成指方面，比亚迪的强势表现则为指数再添一把火，整个市场仿佛被一股强大的 力量瞬间点燃。 然而，这热闹的表象下隐藏着巨大的风险。上午两市下跌个股超过3400家，众多热门股遭遇重挫，高位追入的资金纷纷被套牢。涨势 喜人的仅是少数几只权重股，而大部分个股仍然低迷不振，甚至不断创下新低。 散户的希望之火被残酷的现实浇灭，焦虑和不安的情绪在市场中弥 漫。 白酒板块的启动，短暂地缓解了市场紧张气氛，两市上涨家数开始回升。但这种表面的和谐无法掩盖内心的波涛汹涌。投资者口中喊着"牛市"，心里 却苦不堪言，只能强颜欢笑，如同正月十五的观灯人群，热闹非凡，内心却奔腾着难以驯服的野马，对这波行情的持续性充满怀疑。 临近中午，人们 仍在揣测这 ...

E卫兵雄起何币 (@hebi555):E卫兵扬眉吐气，3000的以太坊，新高的比特币，okx50%+的年化收益率，晒单的人开始变多了，似乎熟悉的感觉回来了，但气氛咋一点不热烈？牛市肾虚了？或者，大家都在等Linea？ https://t.co/oSax69Hspc ...

Group 1 - The current market is exhibiting a "low-level rotation rally" characteristic, indicating an overall increase in market valuation, with opportunities for various sectors, including those that have been stagnant for a long time, such as lithium and liquor [1] - The market strategy appears to focus on creating sectors that attract media attention to draw in outside capital, which is particularly evident in a bull market where adjustments occur through daily increases and turnover rather than declines [1] - The market is currently less than 200 points away from the 3674-point level, and a breakthrough of this level could lead to increased inflow of outside capital, facilitating a smoother upward trend without significant adjustments [1] Group 2 - The current market environment offers numerous opportunities for investors, especially short-term investors, as the rotation characteristic makes it difficult to incur losses if the market rhythm is well-timed [2] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing high prices, while focusing on the overall market trend and sector rotation [2] - Overall, the market trend is upward, with low-level sectors experiencing rotation and adjustments occurring through sustained increases and turnover [2]