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碳酸锂周报:减产预期发酵,价格强劲反弹-20250728
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-28 02:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be stable, with South American imports likely to supplement supply, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good, with the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers increasing in July. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly View Supply - side - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 235 tons to 18,548 tons, and the output in June increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many lithium mine projects have restarted production, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices of re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [4] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [4] Demand - side - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 10%. In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The new car replacement policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a cumulative state, with the factory inventory decreasing by 850 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 524 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 1,757 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salts will supplement the supply. The overall supply is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and import volume of related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and battery materials, and the price of battery materials. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends over different time periods are shown [8][10][13][15][17][23][25][27][31][33][35][37]
金十期货整理 | 碳酸锂“小作文”频发,价格涨势能持续多久?
news flash· 2025-07-25 01:34
Group 1 - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau issued a document on July 7, indicating that eight local mines have issues with unauthorized registration procedures, requiring a report on mineral type change and resource verification by September 30 [1] - Concerns arise regarding a mining license expiring in early August, which may lead to temporary production halts during the supplementary material submission period [1] - On July 17, Cangge Mining's subsidiary, Cangge Lithium, received a government notice to suspend production while it processes mining permit applications [1] - On July 17, Rio Tinto announced the suspension of operations at the Mt Cattlin lithium mine in its Q2 2025 production report [1] - On July 18, rumors circulated that Jiuling Lithium Industry would halt sales of lithium carbonate for three months [1] - Jiangte Electric's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., will undergo a 26-day production suspension for maintenance starting July 25 [1]
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250724
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 13:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, with the de - stocking process progressing slowly, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance remaining unmitigated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase". The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentratedly released. - There are multiple factors affecting the price of lithium carbonate. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the market trading the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future production expectations of lithium mines, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and the LC2511 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 69,380 yuan/ton to 76,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.52% and a weekly increase of 12.83%. The trading volume of the LC2511 contract increased from 241,623 lots to 313,782 lots, a daily increase of 29.86% and a weekly increase of 235.73% [8]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The month - to - month spreads of LC08 - 11, LC09 - 11, and LC11 - 12 all changed. For example, the LC09 - 11 spread increased from 760 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 121% and a weekly increase of 115% [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li₂O:2 - 2.5% increased by 50 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.12%, and a weekly increase of 12.97% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Quotes**: The average daily quotes of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 63,350 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 8.76% [17]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price all changed. For example, the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% and a weekly increase of 3.13% [20]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average daily quotes of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also changed. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 32,665 yuan/ton to 32,690 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.08% [22]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, remained stable. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy's battery - grade lithium carbonate for the LC2507 contract was 100 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants increased from 10,754 lots to 11,654 lots, an increase of 900 lots. Some warehouses saw changes in warrant quantities, such as a 300 - lot increase in Suining Tiancheng and a 20 - lot decrease in Wugang Wuxi [29]. 4. Cost and Profit - There are graphs showing the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [31].
碳酸锂 下跌趋势难改
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-22 23:25
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing an oversupply due to rapid increases in production capacity and lower-than-expected demand, leading to a significant decline in prices [1][5]. Supply Side Summary - Domestic and international lithium carbonate projects have been successfully implemented this year, resulting in a rapid increase in smelting capacity. However, demand growth has not met expectations, causing inventory levels to rise [1]. - Australian lithium ore production remains stable despite falling prices, with no significant production cuts expected in the short term. The Goulamina and Bougouni mines in Africa are expected to contribute approximately 620,000 tons/year of lithium spodumene concentrate, with further expansions planned [2]. - Domestic lithium ore production has increased by over 30% year-to-date, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. However, medium to long-term supply may contract as Australian mines begin to reduce production [2][3]. Production and Cost Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices have been declining, prompting lithium salt manufacturers to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Spodumene-derived lithium production has increased by over 70% year-on-year, while mica-derived lithium production has only grown by 20% due to lower ore grades [3]. - The domestic lithium salt import volume has increased by 15% year-on-year, with expectations of a sustained 20% growth in imports in the medium to long term [3]. Demand Side Summary - Domestic demand for electric vehicles has shown strong growth, exceeding 30% year-on-year, driven by trade-in programs and promotional pricing from automakers. The energy storage sector is also expected to grow despite the cancellation of mandatory storage policies [4]. - Internationally, demand for electric vehicles in the EU is accelerating, although it has not yet met emissions reduction targets due to insufficient infrastructure and slow rollout of lower-end models. Southeast Asia's demand for affordable Chinese electric vehicles is increasing, suggesting a potential for sustained export growth [4]. Market Outlook - The short-term weakening of demand is likely to exacerbate the oversupply of lithium salts, accelerating the decline in lithium carbonate prices. However, a recovery in demand in the fourth quarter is anticipated to stabilize prices [5].
碳酸锂基本面依然偏空,价格仍存下跌可能
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a temporary price increase, but the fundamental oversupply situation remains unchanged, indicating potential for future price declines [1][7]. Supply and Production - Lithium carbonate production capacity in China reached a new high, with total production capacity at 134,438 tons in May, a year-on-year increase of 45.68% [2]. - Battery-grade lithium carbonate production was 6,230 tons in May, up 29% year-on-year, while industrial-grade production was 20,507 tons, down 9% [2]. - Despite the increase in production capacity, the overall supply growth rate for both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate has shown significant slowdown [2]. Cost Dynamics - The prices of raw materials such as spodumene and lithium mica are declining, with spodumene priced at $629 per ton and lithium mica at 720 yuan per ton as of June 27 [3]. - The average production cost for companies using spodumene is approximately 69,600 yuan per ton, while those using lithium mica have a cost of about 56,300 yuan per ton [3]. - Current production costs for lithium carbonate are expected to decrease, but the support for prices from these costs is weakening [3]. Demand Trends - The growth rate of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market is expected to slow down, with NEV sales reaching 1.27 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 35% [5]. - The market share of NEVs has increased significantly, but the growth rate is stabilizing around 40%, indicating potential for further declines in growth [5]. - The photovoltaic industry has also seen a slowdown in growth due to policy changes, which may impact the overall consumption of lithium carbonate [6]. Inventory Levels - As of May 30, lithium carbonate inventory stood at 97,637 tons, with smelter inventory at 55,391 tons and downstream inventory at 42,246 tons, reflecting a high level of inventory for the year [7]. - The current inventory levels suggest a continuation of the bearish fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate [7].
【期货热点追踪】消息面扰动和仓单持续减少,碳酸锂持续走高
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-18 02:58
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply disruptions and inventory changes, with recent reports indicating both production halts and rising prices in the context of overall market dynamics [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Supply and Production - Rio Tinto's production report for Q2 2025 confirmed the suspension of operations at the Mt Cattlin lithium mine, contributing to supply concerns [1] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary has been ordered to halt lithium resource development due to mining permit issues, although the impact on overall supply is expected to be minimal [1][4] - In July, lithium production is projected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, with specific increases in spodumene and lepidolite production [3] Group 2: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures rose over 3% at the start of trading, influenced by supply disruptions and decreasing warehouse receipts [1] - The spot price of lithium carbonate has shown overall strength, but downstream acceptance remains low, leading to cautious pricing strategies among upstream lithium salt companies [2] - Despite price increases, the market is characterized by high supply and inventory levels, which may exert upward pressure on prices in the absence of substantial supply reductions [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Demand - The Asian lithium market faced downward pressure in Q3 due to oversupply and rising inventory levels, impacting prices despite some production increases [1][3] - Downstream demand appears stable, with major customers indicating that current orders can meet their needs, leading to a cautious approach towards high-priced lithium carbonate [2] - Market sentiment remains sensitive to news and expectations, with speculative emotions influencing price movements despite a lack of significant changes in the fundamental supply-demand balance [4]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250710
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,700 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2507 is 64,700 yuan, up 0.59%; Li2508 is 64,680 yuan, up 0.12%; Li2509 is 64,400 yuan, up 0.16%; Li2510 is 64,160 yuan, down 0.03%; Li2511 is 64,080 yuan, up 0.22% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 666 yuan, with a daily increase of 8 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 820 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1385 yuan, with a daily increase of 30 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4500 yuan, with a daily increase of 75 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5340 yuan, with a daily increase of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,950 yuan, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,955 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan, with no change [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1100 yuan, with a change of - 120 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of other sources (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 13,281 tons, with an increase of 626 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,506 yuan, and the profit is - 76 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 6886 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing [3]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases. However, the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Additionally, due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices will intensify [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li₂O: 5.5% - 6%) is 658 dollars, with a daily increase of 4 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 800 dollars, with a daily increase of 25 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,355 dollars, with a daily increase of 27.5 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) is 4,425 dollars, with a daily increase of 50 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) is 5,260 dollars, with a daily increase of 60 dollars [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,905 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 360 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1,510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1,790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,655 tons, with a decrease of 2,900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 61,988 yuan/ton, and the profit is 46 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 67,099 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6,586 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase, and there is no sign of production reduction in the ore end. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,600 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.5%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 63,920 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.22%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 63,660 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.16%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.06% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 654 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 44 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 775 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1327.5 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4375 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5200 yuan/ton [1][2] Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 65 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 120 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,805 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton [2] Price Difference - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton, with no change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1110 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 260 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 400 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 15,555 tons, with a decrease of 5481 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 61,715 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 28 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 66,522 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6352 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250707
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 05:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is significant, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,300 yuan with a daily increase of 200 yuan, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,700 yuan with a daily increase of 200 yuan [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,700 yuan with a decline of 0.34%; 2508 is 63,500 yuan with a decline of 0.69%; 2509 is 63,280 yuan with a decline of 0.75%; 2510 is 63,180 yuan with a decline of 0.69%; 2511 is 63,020 yuan with a decline of 0.63% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 653 yuan with a daily increase of 44 yuan [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 775 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan; (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1327.5 yuan with a daily increase of 12.5 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4375 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5200 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,705 yuan with a daily increase of 45 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,640 yuan with a daily increase of 120 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,555 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 980 yuan with a change of 1000 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract is 220 yuan with a change of 140 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second continuous contract is 320 yuan with a change of - 40 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 21,036 tons with a decrease of 1844 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 61,667 yuan, and the profit is - 228 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 66,522 yuan, and the profit is - 6597 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing [3]