所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries. Industrial metals saw a significant drop of 4.36%, driven by heightened concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn due to unexpected tariff policies [1][15] - The report highlights that the recent U.S. tariff policies have significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to a notable retreat in industrial metal prices. However, the macroeconomic framework suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points. Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment dropped by 4.36% [15][1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week. SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31%. The supply side remains constrained, while demand is affected by high prices [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90%. Social inventory decreased, indicating a faster destocking rate [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94%. Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27%. Inventory changes were mixed [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of April 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05%. The recent U.S. tariff policies have heightened market risk aversion, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [4][45][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries [15] - Industrial metals prices have sharply retreated due to heightened market concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn following unexpected tariff policies [1][25] - The report expresses a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to liquidity shocks [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points [15] - Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment saw a notable drop of 4.36%, while the precious metals sector decreased by 1.24% [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31% [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90% [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94% [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05% [45][48] - The report highlights that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, intensifying market fears regarding economic downturns and boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [47]

Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the previous value of 117,000 (revised from 151,000) [12] - The unemployment rate in March 2025 rose to 4.2%, higher than both the expected and previous rate of 4.1% [12] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.9% and the previous 4.0% [12] Sector Performance - Retail and healthcare sectors saw strong job growth, with retail adding 24,000 jobs and healthcare adding 78,000 jobs in March 2025 [23] - The leisure and hospitality sector also rebounded, adding 43,000 jobs, a significant improvement from the previous month's loss of 17,000 jobs [24] Economic Outlook - Despite the strong non-farm data, concerns about economic recession due to tariffs have led the market to anticipate four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [19] - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 14 basis points to 4.06%, further declining to around 4.0% after the non-farm data release [19] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% in March 2025, indicating a slight rise in employment willingness among younger demographics [27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in February, suggesting resilience in the part-time job market [33]

首席点评： 对等关税落地，利空暂时兑现 据央视报道，美国白宫发表声明称，特朗普将对所有国家征收10%的"基准关税"，该关税将 于美国东部时间4月5日凌晨0时01分生效。此外，特朗普将对美国贸易逆差最大的国家征收 个性化的更高"对等关税"，该关税将于美国东部时间4月9日凌晨0时01分生效，所有其他国 家将继续遵守原有的10%关税基准。声明表示，一些商品将不受"对等关税"的约束，其中包 括已经受第232条关税约束的钢铝制品、汽车和汽车零部件、可能受未来第232条关税约束的 商品以及美国没有的能源和其他某些矿物。此外，金条、铜、药品、半导体和木材制品也不 受"对等关税"的约束。声明还表示，对于加拿大和墨西哥，符合《美墨加贸易协定》的商品 将继续获得豁免。 重点品种： 股指、原油、黄金 股指： 特朗普全面征收关税，美股盘后大幅下跌，A50跟跌，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，纺织服饰板块 领涨，国防军工板块领跌，全市成交额0.99万亿元，其中IH2504下跌0.18%，IF2504下跌0.08%，IC2504 上涨0.24%，IM2504上涨0.50%。资金方面，4月1日融资余额减少47.64亿元至19027.99亿元。4月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for multiple measures to boost consumption in response to the low retail sales growth in the US, which was only 0.2% in February, below the expected 0.6% [1] - The Chinese government is actively formulating policies such as childcare subsidies and labor wage adjustments to enhance consumer capacity [1] - The central bank will collaborate with financial regulators to develop specific documents to support consumption expansion [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route showed a significant increase, with the June contract closing at 2204.1 points, up 3.41%, influenced by geopolitical tensions [2][37] - The SCFIS European line decreased by 3.9% to 1611.70 points, indicating a decline in the port settlement price during the specified period [2][37] - The April shipping rates are expected to stabilize, with potential for price adjustments depending on cargo volume recovery [2][37] Group 3 - The apple futures market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with cold storage inventory in major production areas at 524.06 million tons, a decrease of 25.16 million tons from the previous week [3][31] - The current market price for apples remains stable at 3.75 yuan per jin in key regions, with expectations for trading strategies focusing on buying low and selling high within a specified range [3][31] Group 4 - The domestic monetary policy is showing signs of easing, with the central bank emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - The overall economic environment is being closely monitored, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts as economic data shows signs of weakening [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the US stock market, termed "Black Monday," is attributed to weakening economic growth, concerns over Trump's tariff policies, and a shift in the AI monopoly landscape, with expectations of continued market volatility in the short term [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On March 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 890.01 points, closing at 41911.71, a drop of 2.08% - The S&P 500 index decreased by 155.64 points to 5614.56, down 2.70% - The Nasdaq Composite index dropped by 727.90 points to 17468.33, marking a 4.00% decline, the largest single-day drop in 29 months [1]. Sector Analysis - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Tesla down over 15%, losing approximately $130 billion in market value, the largest single-day drop since September 2020 - Other tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, Google A, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Amazon also saw declines ranging from 2.36% to 5.07% [1]. Economic Commentary - Analysts suggest that the market downturn began on February 20, with the S&P 500 index down 8.7% and the Nasdaq down nearly 13% from mid-February highs - The decline is linked to recession fears and liquidity tightening, exacerbated by Trump's rhetoric and weakening economic data [3][4]. Policy Impact - Trump's comments regarding the economy being in a "transition period" and the potential for a "detox period" due to government spending cuts have contributed to market uncertainty [2][4]. - Analysts note that the current economic environment reflects a shift from "American exceptionalism" to a narrative of "atmospheric recession," although a true recession is not imminent [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued volatility in the US stock market due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies - The overall high valuation levels of the market suggest that positive catalysts will be necessary to maintain these valuations in the medium to long term [5][6].

Economic Concerns - The Nasdaq has dropped over 12% in the past four weeks, indicating recession fears driven by liquidity tightening amid economic data weakness[2] - The Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 2025 GDP forecast from +3.9% to -2.4%, primarily due to declines in consumer spending and net exports[2] Consumer and Investment Trends - January retail sales and real personal consumption growth in the U.S. were significantly below expectations, with credit card delinquencies reaching the highest level since 2012[3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index fell by 6.5% in February, indicating a downturn in business investment intentions[3] Policy Impacts - Trump's policies are seen as contributing to economic slowdown, with tariffs and immigration policies having significant negative effects on growth and inflation[3] - The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico could increase inflation by 0.86 percentage points and reduce GDP by 0.1 percentage points by 2025[4] Market Liquidity and External Factors - Concerns over U.S. liquidity are rising, with the Fed continuing its balance sheet reduction and a significant amount of corporate debt maturing in Q2[6] - There is a noticeable shift in capital flows, with funds moving away from U.S. equities towards non-U.S. markets, particularly in China and Europe[7] Future Strategies - To counter recession fears, the Trump administration may focus on increasing private sector investment and expediting tax cuts to boost market confidence[8] - The potential for a recession could lead to a significant political shift in the midterm elections if not managed carefully[6]

Stock Market Performance - The stock market rebounded quickly this week, recovering from last week's losses, with the CSI 2000 rising by 4.0% and the CSI 1000 by 3.8%[1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 5.6%, reaching a three-year high, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 8.4%[1] - Among 31 primary industries, only 5 sectors experienced declines, with metals, military, computer, and media sectors all rising over 5%[1] Trading Volume and Valuation - Average daily trading volume decreased to 1.7 trillion CNY, a 15% drop from last week's 1.99 trillion CNY[1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 stood at 12.6, with a Z-Score of -0.1, while the CSI 1000 had a P/E of 39.6 and a Z-Score of -0.3[1] - The computer industry is the only sector with a P/E Z-Score exceeding 1, currently at 1.3[1] Bond Market Trends - The bond market showed weakness this week, with yields rising significantly due to various factors, including policy adjustments and market expectations[1] - The overall funding environment was balanced but slightly loose, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 195.5 billion CNY on Monday[1] - The market's interest rate expectations shifted, leading to an increase in yields, particularly in the interbank certificate of deposit rates[1] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by 3.4% to 103.9, while the euro appreciated by 4.3%, marking its largest weekly gain in nearly a decade[1] - Offshore RMB strengthened by 0.7% against the dollar, closing at 7.24[1] - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to 2909 USD/ounce, while Brent crude oil and WTI saw declines of 3.7% and 4.1%, respectively[1]

首席点评: 集运领涨 橡胶下跌 近期美国制造业活动陷入停滞，通胀压力持续升温，1月消费者支出环比下降0.2%，贸易赤字扩大 至982亿美元，初请失业金人数突破23万大关。而亚特兰大联储模型显示，美国一季度GDP或萎缩 2.825%，创2019年以来最差表现。美国供应管理协会3月3日公告，美国2月ISM制造业PMI回落至 47.1（低于荣枯线），创2024年6月以来新低。国务院关税税则委员会3月4日发布公告称，经国务院 批准，自2025年3月10日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税：对鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花 加征15%关税；对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关税。3月7日 收盘集运指数（欧线）涨超4%。 重点品种： 集运、原油、黄金 原油 ： 周五夜盘上涨1.9%。中国国家统计局数据显示，2月份PMI为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分 点，制造业景气水平明显回升。美国总统特朗普根据一项北美贸易协定豁免了来自加拿大和墨西哥 的商品一个月，使其免受他本周实施的25%关税的影响。伊拉克将宣布恢复通过伊拉克-土耳其输油 管道从半自治的库尔德斯坦地区出口原油。但在库尔德斯坦地区运营的八家 ...