Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月13日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，早盘金价迅速走高； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.79%报97.87， 离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报7.1731；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 6.11个基点报4.359%；COMEX黄金期货涨1.88%报3406.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.16，现货781.7，基差-3.46，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加30千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧洲CPI终值、美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、周日第 六轮美伊核谈判举行。美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，金价早间 大幅拉升。沪金溢价维持至2.68元/克左右。地缘局势紧张，美伊谈判继续，金价震 荡偏多 白银 1、基本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, due to the US Commerce Secretary's speech adding market hopes for talks, the gold price fluctuated. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance. The dollar index rose 0.04% to 99.05, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly to 7.1892. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.4 basis points to 4.470%. COMEX gold futures fell 0.30% to $3344.80 per ounce. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to about 4.15 yuan/gram. With the repeated expectations of trade negotiations and attention to the US CPI today, the gold price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - For silver, influenced by the same factors as gold, the silver price rose first and then fell. The correlation between silver price and gold price strengthened. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 436 yuan/kg. With the repeated expectations of trade negotiations, the influencing factors of silver price have returned, and the technical support has cooled down, so the silver price will fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Commerce Secretary's speech affected the market. The gold price fluctuated. The US and European stock markets had different performances. The dollar index, RMB exchange rate, and US Treasury yields changed. COMEX gold futures declined. The gold basis was - 2.86 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 kg to 17817 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [4][5]. - Silver: The silver price rose first and then fell. The US and European stock markets had different performances. The dollar index, RMB exchange rate, and US Treasury yields changed. COMEX silver futures declined. The silver basis was - 19 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 35390 kg to 1193716 kg. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include the global turmoil, rising US stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [13][14]. 3.3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to focus on, including the speech of the European Central Bank President, the Huawei product launch, the release of European Central Bank salary data, the Nvidia GTC conference, the speech of the European Central Bank Chief Economist, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting, the speech of the European Central Bank Executive, the release of the US May CPI, the testimony of the US Treasury Secretary, the release of the US May government budget, and the release of the Mexican central bank's semi - annual financial stability report [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The previous closing price of Shanghai gold 2508 was 775.06, the highest was 777.16, the lowest was 769.42, down 0.20 with a decline of 0.03%. The previous closing price of COMEX gold 2508 was 3344.8, the highest was 3370.4, the lowest was 3321.3, down 10.10 with a decline of 0.30%. The SGE gold T + D rose 2.78 with an increase of 0.10%. The London gold spot price fell 2.30 with a decline of 0.07% [16]. - Silver: The previous closing price of Shanghai silver 2508 was 8887, the highest was 9020, the lowest was 8858, up 55 with an increase of 0.62%. The previous closing price of COMEX silver 2507 was 36.655, the highest was 36.975, the lowest was 36.425, down 0.141 with a decline of 0.38%. The SGE silver T + D fell 60 with a decline of 0.07%. The London silver spot price fell 0.22 with a decline of 0.60% [16]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: On June 10, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 201,120, an increase of 52 or 0.03% compared to the previous day. The short position was 71,063, a decrease of 516 or 0.72%. The net position was 130,057, an increase of 568 or 0.44% [28]. - Silver: On June 10, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 468,649, a decrease of 27,923 or 5.62% compared to the previous day. The short position was 359,759, a decrease of 17,302 or 4.59%. The net position was 108,890, a decrease of 10,621 or 8.89% [31].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：非农数据超预期，降息预期降温，贸易消息提振，金价震荡回落；美国 三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.47%报99.20，离岸 人民币贬值报7.18854；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨11.11个基点报 4.506%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.31%报3331美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.24，现货779.7，基差-3.54，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加600千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5 ...

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：震荡横盘 | 6 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 锌：区间调整 | 8 | | 铅：低位企稳 | 9 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 10 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 14,000 to 240,000, the highest level since April, indicating a potential rise in the unemployment rate this month [1][4] - The number of continuing jobless claims rose by 26,000 to 1.92 million, exceeding the expected median of 1.89 million, suggesting increasing layoffs and a weakening labor market [1][4] - The median duration of unemployment increased from 9.8 weeks in March to 10.4 weeks in April, indicating that many unemployed individuals are facing prolonged joblessness [4] Group 2 - Economists expect that due to seasonal adjustment difficulties, the number of unemployment claims in June may exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 [4][5] - Despite concerns about the labor market weakening, a survey indicated that 83% of CEOs anticipate a recession in the next 12-18 months, yet most do not expect significant layoffs [5] - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised to a 0.2% annualized decline, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.3% contraction, highlighting economic challenges [5]

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. Core Viewpoints - The tax cut bill has raised concerns about deficits, leading to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with the logic shifting to the US tax cut bill. Although there is still suppression from the optimistic expectation of trade negotiations, the upward trend of precious metal prices has returned. The domestic sentiment for gold has heated up rapidly, and the premium of Shanghai gold has expanded significantly [4]. - For gold, the expected factors include the press conference on science and technology financial policies, euro - zone PMI, ECB meeting minutes, and speeches by ECB and Fed officials. The logic has turned to the US tax cut bill, and the upward trend of gold prices has resumed [4]. - For silver, the upward momentum may be re - accumulating, and it follows the trend of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The tax cut bill caused deficit concerns, resulting in a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. COMEX gold futures rose 0.97% to $3316.60 per ounce. The situation is neutral. The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, the European major stock markets showed mixed performance, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 99.60, and the offshore RMB appreciated to 7.2040. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 11.56 basis points to 4.605%. The gold basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 9 kilograms to 17247 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it; the main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the tax cut bill led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. COMEX silver futures rose 1.21% to $33.58 per ounce. The basis of silver shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11577 kilograms to 940799 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expected events for the day include a press conference on science and technology financial policies, euro - zone PMI, ECB meeting minutes, and speeches by ECB and Fed officials. The logic has shifted to the US tax cut bill. Although there is still suppression from the optimistic expectation of trade negotiations, the upward trend of gold prices has returned. The premium of Shanghai gold has rapidly expanded to about 8 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment has heated up rapidly [4]. - **Silver**: The upward momentum of silver prices may be re - accumulating, and it follows the trend of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged [6]. 3. Today's Focus - The events to be concerned about include Japan's March core machinery orders at 07:50, ECB Governing Council member Vujcic's speech at 16:20, Japan's May preliminary PMI values for manufacturing, services, and composite at 08:30, speech by Bank of Japan审议委员野口旭 at 09:30, India's May PMI values for manufacturing, services, and composite at 13:00, a press conference on science and technology financial policies and a regular press conference by the Ministry of Commerce, and ECB Governing Council member Holzmann's speech at 15:00, etc. [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The futures price is 778.78, the spot price is 774.8, with a basis of - 3.98 (spot at a discount to futures). The inventory of gold futures is 17247 kilograms, an increase of 9 kilograms [4][5]. - **Silver**: The report does not provide comprehensive fundamental data for silver in this section, but mentions the increase in the inventory of Shanghai silver futures [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on May 21, 2025, the long positions were 192,028, an increase of 7.54% from the previous day; the short positions were 84,668, an increase of 6.81%; the net long positions were 107,360, an increase of 8.13% [30]. - **Silver**: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on May 21, 2025, the long positions were 482,330, an increase of 9.64% from the previous day; the short positions were 323,858, an increase of 4.15%; the net long positions were 158,472, an increase of 22.87% [32].

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation is tense in multiple regions, particularly in the Middle East where negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and there are reports of Israel potentially preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - In Europe, the EU has approved the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK has introduced over 100 new sanctions, including the suspension of free trade agreement negotiations with Israel [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape has significantly increased market uncertainty, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Economic Outlook - High uncertainty is causing households and businesses to pause spending and investment, which may lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, each by 25 basis points [2] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [3] - These economic instabilities are prompting investors to seek channels for asset preservation and appreciation, highlighting the safe-haven function of gold [3] Trading Strategies - For spot gold, a buy position is recommended if it stabilizes at 3245.00, with a target of 3275.00 [4] - For spot silver, a sell position is suggested if it stabilizes at 32.700, with a target of 32.900 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Moody's downgrade impact was short - lived, with US stocks opening lower and closing higher, and gold and silver prices rebounding. The dollar index fell 0.60% to 100.37, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 1.41% to $3232.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.44% to $32.50 per ounce. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as trade negotiation threats and optimistic tariff negotiation expectations [4][6] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. However, there are risks such as Trump's new policies, improved US economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events [10][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Gold: Moody's downgrade impact was short - lived, US stocks opened lower and closed higher, and the dollar index fell 0.60% to 100.37. COMEX gold futures rose 1.41% to $3232.20 per ounce. The basis was - 2.9, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,648 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [4][5] - Silver: Similar to gold, Moody's downgrade impact was short - lived. COMEX silver futures rose 0.44% to $32.50 per ounce. The basis was - 29, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures increased by 14,414 kilograms to 901,432 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased [6] 3.2 Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to China's May LPR, intensive speeches by ECB and Fed members, and the opening of the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting in Canada [4] 3.3 Today's Focus - Time - to - be - determined: The 2025 Taipei International Computer Show (COMPUTEX) will be held from May 20th to May 23rd, and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will attend - 09:00: China's May one - year/five - year loan prime rate - 12:30: The Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference - 14:55: ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch delivers a keynote speech at the AFME's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference - 16:00: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks - 18:00: ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks, and ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot submits a financial stability assessment report - 20:30: Canada's April CPI - Time - to - be - determined: The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting opens in Canada and will last until May 22nd - 21:00: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) speak - 21:30: Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks - Next day 01:00: St. Louis Fed President Kathleen O'Neill Paese talks about the economy and policy - Next day 05:00: Fed Governor Philip Jefferson speaks - Next day 07:00: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic hosts a discussion on "Financial Intermediation in the Transformation Process", with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (2027 FOMC voter) participating [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was - 2.9, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,648 kilograms [5] - Silver: The basis was - 29, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures increased by 14,414 kilograms to 901,432 kilograms [6] 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 1,828 to 180,934, a decrease of 1.00%. The short positions decreased by 796 to 76,107, a decrease of 1.04%. The net position decreased by 1,032 to 104,827, a decrease of 0.97% [5][30] - Silver: The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver increased by 1,268 to 440,495, an increase of 0.29%. The short positions decreased by 3,291 to 303,523, a decrease of 1.07%. The net position increased by 4,559 to 136,972, an increase of 3.44% [6][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The poor consumer confidence in the US, optimistic expectations for trade negotiations, the failure of Trump's tax - cut plan, and the inconclusive Russia - Ukraine negotiations led to the decline of gold and silver prices. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to the continued accumulation of recent events and optimistic global trade negotiation expectations. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and are more affected by tariff concerns [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall and are still prone to rise and hard to fall. Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices [9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US Michigan consumer confidence was poor, trade negotiation expectations were optimistic, and gold prices fell again. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes rose slightly. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 100.9828, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. US Treasury yields rose collectively. COMEX gold futures fell 0.66% to $3205.30 per ounce. The basis was - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,648 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices followed the decline of gold prices. COMEX silver futures fell 0.76% to $32.43 per ounce. The basis was - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 27,764 kilograms day - on - day. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and gold prices are still prone to rise and hard to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 06:45: New Zealand's Q1 PPI output - 07:01: UK's May Rightmove average house asking price index - 09:30: China's housing price monthly report for 70 large and medium - sized cities - 10:00: China's April industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate investment and other monthly economic data - 17:00: Eurozone's April CPI final value - 20:30: Atlanta Fed President Bostic to deliver an opening speech at the Atlanta Fed's 2025 Financial Markets Conference - 20:45: Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams to give speeches - 22:00: US April Conference Board leading indicator [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The US Michigan consumer confidence was poor, trade negotiation expectations were optimistic, and gold prices fell. The US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields rose, and the US stock market rose. The basis was negative, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices followed the decline. The basis was negative, and the warehouse receipts decreased [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2,304 (a decrease of 1.24%), the short positions decreased by 2,341 (a decrease of 2.95%), and the net position increased by 37 (an increase of 0.03%) [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 9,292 (a decrease of 2.07%), the short positions decreased by 31,527 (a decrease of 9.32%), and the net position increased by 22,235 (an increase of 20.18%) [5][32]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions continued to decrease, and silver ETF positions decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts fluctuated and decreased but remained at a high level. Shanghai gold warehouse receipts, COMEX silver warehouse receipts fluctuated at a high level, and Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease but were higher than the same period last year [39][41].