交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国一季度GDP终值下修至-0.5%，金价震荡；美国三大股指全线收涨， 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.41%报97.30，离岸人民币对美元小幅升 值报7.1637；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌5.09个基点报4.240%； COMEX黄金期货跌0.04%报3341.6美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国5月个人收入和个人支出（PCE）、美国6月密歇根大学消费 者信心指数终值、美联储委员和欧央行官员密集讲话。美国一季度GDP终值下修至- 0.5%，降息预期升温，美债收益率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：周末美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，早间金价高开回落；美国三大股指收盘 涨跌不一，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.01%报98.7639；美债收益率 集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌1.59个基点报4.373%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.09%报 3384.4美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日美欧日PMI初值、美国5月成屋销售、美联储委员讲话、伊朗外长与俄 罗斯总统会谈。周末美国袭击伊朗三处核设施，中东局势紧张，早间金价高开回 落，黄金需求有限。沪金溢价维持至2元/克。中东局势依旧反复，但推动减弱，金 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月19日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普称伊朗主动提出谈判，鲍威尔预计通胀压力显著上升，金价回落； 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.06%报 98.89，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1944；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收 益率涨1.58个基点报4.393%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.60%报3386.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.42，现货782.02，基差-3.4，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18168千克，减少9千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日美国金融市场休市，关注2025陆家嘴论坛、英央行利率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价先下后上；美国三大股指全线收 跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美元指数涨0.69%报98.8，离岸人民币对美元小幅 贬值报7.1923；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌6.92个基点报4.377%； COMEX黄金期货跌0.32%报3406.50美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注2025陆家嘴论坛、美联储利率决议，美国5月新屋开工和营建许 可、英国5月CPI、欧央行官员密集讲话。特朗普引发中东冲突升级担忧，金价再度 先下后上但依旧收跌。沪金溢价收敛至0元/ ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月13日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，早盘金价迅速走高； 美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.79%报97.87， 离岸人民币对美元大幅升值报7.1731；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 6.11个基点报4.359%；COMEX黄金期货涨1.88%报3406.40美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.16，现货781.7，基差-3.46，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加30千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注欧洲CPI终值、美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、周日第 六轮美伊核谈判举行。美国通胀放缓，美债标售稳健，以色列袭击伊朗，金价早间 大幅拉升。沪金溢价维持至2.68元/克左右。地缘局势紧张，美伊谈判继续，金价震 荡偏多 白银 1、基本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, due to the US Commerce Secretary's speech adding market hopes for talks, the gold price fluctuated. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance. The dollar index rose 0.04% to 99.05, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly to 7.1892. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.4 basis points to 4.470%. COMEX gold futures fell 0.30% to $3344.80 per ounce. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to about 4.15 yuan/gram. With the repeated expectations of trade negotiations and attention to the US CPI today, the gold price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - For silver, influenced by the same factors as gold, the silver price rose first and then fell. The correlation between silver price and gold price strengthened. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 436 yuan/kg. With the repeated expectations of trade negotiations, the influencing factors of silver price have returned, and the technical support has cooled down, so the silver price will fluctuate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Commerce Secretary's speech affected the market. The gold price fluctuated. The US and European stock markets had different performances. The dollar index, RMB exchange rate, and US Treasury yields changed. COMEX gold futures declined. The gold basis was - 2.86 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 30 kg to 17817 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [4][5]. - Silver: The silver price rose first and then fell. The US and European stock markets had different performances. The dollar index, RMB exchange rate, and US Treasury yields changed. COMEX silver futures declined. The silver basis was - 19 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 35390 kg to 1193716 kg. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The influencing factors include the global turmoil, rising US stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns. Negative factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [13][14]. 3.3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to focus on, including the speech of the European Central Bank President, the Huawei product launch, the release of European Central Bank salary data, the Nvidia GTC conference, the speech of the European Central Bank Chief Economist, the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism's first meeting, the speech of the European Central Bank Executive, the release of the US May CPI, the testimony of the US Treasury Secretary, the release of the US May government budget, and the release of the Mexican central bank's semi - annual financial stability report [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The previous closing price of Shanghai gold 2508 was 775.06, the highest was 777.16, the lowest was 769.42, down 0.20 with a decline of 0.03%. The previous closing price of COMEX gold 2508 was 3344.8, the highest was 3370.4, the lowest was 3321.3, down 10.10 with a decline of 0.30%. The SGE gold T + D rose 2.78 with an increase of 0.10%. The London gold spot price fell 2.30 with a decline of 0.07% [16]. - Silver: The previous closing price of Shanghai silver 2508 was 8887, the highest was 9020, the lowest was 8858, up 55 with an increase of 0.62%. The previous closing price of COMEX silver 2507 was 36.655, the highest was 36.975, the lowest was 36.425, down 0.141 with a decline of 0.38%. The SGE silver T + D fell 60 with a decline of 0.07%. The London silver spot price fell 0.22 with a decline of 0.60% [16]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: On June 10, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 201,120, an increase of 52 or 0.03% compared to the previous day. The short position was 71,063, a decrease of 516 or 0.72%. The net position was 130,057, an increase of 568 or 0.44% [28]. - Silver: On June 10, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 468,649, a decrease of 27,923 or 5.62% compared to the previous day. The short position was 359,759, a decrease of 17,302 or 4.59%. The net position was 108,890, a decrease of 10,621 or 8.89% [31].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：非农数据超预期，降息预期降温，贸易消息提振，金价震荡回落；美国 三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.47%报99.20，离岸 人民币贬值报7.18854；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨11.11个基点报 4.506%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.31%报3331美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.24，现货779.7，基差-3.54，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加600千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5 ...

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：震荡横盘 | 6 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 锌：区间调整 | 8 | | 铅：低位企稳 | 9 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 10 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | ...

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 14,000 to 240,000, the highest level since April, indicating a potential rise in the unemployment rate this month [1][4] - The number of continuing jobless claims rose by 26,000 to 1.92 million, exceeding the expected median of 1.89 million, suggesting increasing layoffs and a weakening labor market [1][4] - The median duration of unemployment increased from 9.8 weeks in March to 10.4 weeks in April, indicating that many unemployed individuals are facing prolonged joblessness [4] Group 2 - Economists expect that due to seasonal adjustment difficulties, the number of unemployment claims in June may exceed the range of 205,000 to 243,000 [4][5] - Despite concerns about the labor market weakening, a survey indicated that 83% of CEOs anticipate a recession in the next 12-18 months, yet most do not expect significant layoffs [5] - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised to a 0.2% annualized decline, an improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.3% contraction, highlighting economic challenges [5]