投资者正密切关注将于周五公布的美国9月核心个人消费支出物价指数，这是美联储偏好的通胀指标， 其结果可能影响货币政策前景。 【最新白银行情解析】 尽管现货白银在收复58.00美元之前跌至57.54美元的日低点，但上升趋势仍然保持不变。看涨势头依然 存在，但价格走势和相对强弱指标(RSI)之间的"温和背离"可能为回调铺平道路。 若回调行情触发，空方将首先瞄准前期阻力趋势线转化的支撑区域53.80-54.00美元，进而测试50日均线 50.25美元。 反之，若买盘强势突破59.00美元关口，下一目标将看向60.00美元，并有望刷新历史高位。 【要闻速递】 ADP报告显示，美国11月私营部门就业减少3.2万，远逊于前值的修正后4.7万增幅，也逊于市场预期的 0.5万增幅。此数据强化了美国劳动力市场正在降温的迹象，并加大了市场对政策利率下调的押注。 市场对美联储降息的预期居高不下。CME FedWatch工具显示，市场认为下周降息的概率高达89%，主 要经纪商也普遍预期FOMC将在此次会议上放宽政策。支撑这一预期的数据包括周三公布的ADP就业报 告，其显示美国11月民间就业岗位减少3.2万个，为两年半来最大降幅。 美国 ...

Core Insights - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a seven-month low of 216,000, decreasing by 6,000 from the previous week and lower than the market expectation of 225,000 [2] - However, the number of continuing claims rose by 7,000 to 1.96 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2] - This divergence in data reflects the current state of the U.S. labor market, indicating fewer layoffs but increased difficulty in reemployment [2] Implications for the Federal Reserve - The decrease in initial claims suggests that the economy is not in a bad state, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from reacting too strongly [2] - The rise in continuing claims indicates a cooling labor market, suggesting that while the economy is not collapsing, it is slowing down [2] - The combined signals imply that while a rate cut is reasonable, it is not urgent, indicating a need for careful monitoring of economic data [2] Market Reactions - Following the data release, gold prices dropped over $30 from the day's high, while the U.S. dollar index reached a new daily high [2] - The market's previous gains were largely based on expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, but the latest data suggests that the economic situation is not weak enough to warrant immediate action [2] - The market requires data that is "bad enough" to justify maintaining previous price levels, indicating a need for balanced economic indicators [2]

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月美国劳动力市场数据表现分化：新增非农就业人数大幅高于预期，但失业率连续 三个月上升，时薪数据指向核心服务通胀压力尚且可控。总的来看，数据确认劳动力市场持续 走弱，但并未出现超预期恶化，就业端仍不足以构成美联储必须降息的理由。往前看，1）年内， 考虑到目前就业并未加速恶化，12 月暂停降息仍是大概率情形；2）2026 年，关税推升通胀但 幅度大概率有限，待关税影响逐渐明朗，美联储的重心仍会回到就业下行风险之上，届时经济 仍需宽货币呵护，美联储或再度降息 2-3 次至中性利率水平以应对经济下行风险。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 [Table_Title 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 2] ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table ...

尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已出现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息 以支撑劳动力市场，另一派则担忧可能加剧通胀风险。政府停摆使美联储决策雪上加霜——常规经济报 告发布中断，劳工统计局周三更宣布因停摆期间数据收集工作停滞，将不再单独发布10月就业报告，部 分数据将合并至11月报告发布。 机构分析师表示，非农数据整体上带来了惊喜，此外，前两个月的数据被向下修正，但合计只减少了 3.3万人，所以这并没有给9月份的数据带来太大的影响。失业率意外攀升至4.4%，但请注意，劳动力参 与率也有所上升，因此这可能并不一定是坏消息。招聘活动由医疗保健、食品服务、饮酒场所和社会救 助行业推动的。尽管这些就业数据已经滞后，但仍足以引起市场关注。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：以三个月移动平均值衡量，9月私营部门就业人数增幅从8月的周期低点 1.6万人升至5.7万人。以六个月平均值计算，9月私营部门就业人数小幅下降至5.8万人，创周期新低。 周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元小幅回落调整，今日美元指数最新报100.161，跌幅0.06%，美国9月 非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of hawkish statements from Fed officials and better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a further interest rate cut by the Fed in December has weakened. However, the trend of a weakening US labor market remains unchanged, and further easing by the Fed is just a matter of time. - Currently, it is recommended to enter long silver positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 903 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11534 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 21, 2025, SHFE gold fell 0.66% to 933.90 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver fell 1.34% to 11967.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4076.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 50.36 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.23 [2]. - The September non - farm payroll employment change in the US was 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the revised previous value of - 22,000. But considering the previous revisions, the September employment data did not show an improvement in the US labor market. Except for healthcare and hospitality, the new employment in the service industry was poor, and employment in goods production relied on real estate. The main contributors to the new non - farm payrolls were healthcare (+59,000), hospitality (+47,000), government (+22,000), and construction (+19,000). The government employment sub - item will not support the combined non - farm data for October and November. The construction industry improved in September, but it is difficult to support overall employment in quantity like the service industry. Manufacturing employment decreased by 6,000, and all sub - items declined, continuing the weak performance in August. The number of people unemployed for more than 15 weeks reached 3.105 million, the highest since 2022. The new employment in the information manufacturing (IT industry) was 0, slightly better than the previous decline of 700 [2]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4076.70 dollars/ounce, down 0.04% from the previous day. The trading volume was 26.69 million lots, up 16.83%. The open interest was 49.37 million lots, down 6.63%. The inventory was 1149 tons, down 0.09% [5]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4090.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.88% [5]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 932.56 yuan/gram, down 0.47%. The trading volume was 54.02 million lots, up 10.99%. The open interest was 33.20 million lots, down 1.08%. The inventory was 90.43 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 49.54 billion yuan, out - flowed 1.55% [5]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.36 dollars/ounce, down 1.39%. The open interest was 16.38 million lots, down 1.19%. The inventory was 14367 tons, down 0.13% [5]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 50.85 dollars/ounce, down 2.60% [5]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 12,050.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81%. The trading volume was 258.09 million lots, up 32.77%. The open interest was 74.14 million lots, up 1.91%. The inventory was 535.09 tons, down 2.30%. The settled funds were 24.122 billion yuan, in - flowed 1.09% [5]. 3.3 Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: In the COMEX gold near - far month structure, and the spreads between London gold and COMEX gold, SHFE gold and COMEX gold, and SGE gold and LBMA gold were analyzed. For example, on November 20, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was - 0.95 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 7.57 dollars/ounce [5][51]. - **Silver**: In the COMEX silver near - far month structure, and the spreads between London silver and COMEX silver, SHFE silver and COMEX silver, and SGE silver and LBMA silver were analyzed. On November 20, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 2.28 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.92 dollars/ounce [5][51].

Group 1 - The core employment data from the U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau indicates that non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 52,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since October 2021, up from 4.3% in August [3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, compared to the expected increases of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The unexpected rebound in the labor market complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding potential interest rate cuts next month [3] - The report is the first economic health indicator released since the record government shutdown, which interrupted the publication of official data [3] - The mixed signals from the labor market have led to internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for continued cuts to support the labor market while others express concerns about inflation risks [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization before the government shutdown, with September non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for September stands at 4.4%, higher than both expectations and the previous value of 4.3%, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Average hourly wages in September increased by 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing the expected steady rate of 3.7%, but the month-over-month increase of 0.2% fell short of expectations and was lower than the previous month's 0.3% [1] Summary by Category Employment Data - September non-farm employment increased by 119,000, more than double the forecast of 51,000 [1] - August's job additions were revised down from an increase of 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000, with a total downward revision of 33,000 jobs for July and August combined [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021, exceeding both prior values and market expectations [1] Wage Growth - Average hourly wages rose by 3.8% year-over-year in September, above the expected 3.7%, but the month-over-month growth of 0.2% was below expectations and a decrease from the previous month's 0.3% [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials showed significant disagreement regarding further interest rate cuts in December, with market bets on rate cuts diminishing and U.S. Treasury yields rising by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.55 basis points to 4.13%, while the 2-year yield rose by 1.48 basis points to 3.59% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped from nearly 50% to just over 30% according to CME's FedWatch tool [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% was supported by a majority vote of 10-2, with dissenting opinions advocating for either a 50 basis point cut or no change [2] - The assessment of economic growth was upgraded from "slowing" to "expanding at a moderate pace," although concerns about government shutdowns impacting economic activity were noted [1][2] - Labor market conditions are seen as crucial for supporting potential rate cuts, with expectations of low hiring and low layoffs continuing [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term trend of precious metals such as gold and silver may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.32% at 929.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.51% to 11949 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - From the four - week period ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2500 workers per week, indicating an improvement in the US labor market compared to the previous week's average reduction of 11250 people [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 18.4% [1] Market Logic - The so - called "inflation hawks" of the Fed have made intensive statements recently, making the decision on whether to conduct the third rate cut this year in December uncertain. The data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December is less than 50%. On November 18, the US dollar index rose slightly. Affected by the change in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, COMEX gold and silver both experienced a bottom - hunting rebound, and may be volatile in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral rather than overly tight, suggesting limited room for significant rate cuts in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that after two rate cuts this year, the policy rate is now closer to neutral, with inflation around 3% still above the 2% target, necessitating continued efforts to combat high inflation while supporting the labor market [4]. - Other Fed officials echoed similar sentiments, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive rates to apply downward pressure on inflation, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noting that approximately 3% inflation remains high [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that after two rate cuts this year, the balance between the goals of full employment and price stability has returned to a more balanced state, but service sector inflation has not shown sustained decline, warranting a more restrained market expectation for further easing [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the cautious remarks from Fed officials, futures market pricing adjusted, with traders' bets on a December rate cut dropping from over 60% to around 50%, indicating a cooling confidence in the prospect of a rate cut [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a private sector job increase of only 42,000 in October, while Challenger reported a significant rise in announced layoffs to 153,000, the highest for October since 2003 [6]. - Consumer sentiment is also weakening, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index falling to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, reflecting deteriorating expectations regarding job and income prospects [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with incomplete data due to prolonged government shutdowns, relying more on private and survey data to assess economic conditions [7][8]. - Musalem acknowledged the importance of restoring credible and sustainably updated official data, but noted that the Fed can still form reasonable judgments about economic conditions through financial market rates and other indicators [8].