Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the outlook of the crude oil market in August 2025, suggesting a long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing supply and gradually loosening supply - demand dynamics [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, with supply expected to continuously increase, and further loosening is foreseeable after the end of the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process regarding potential sanctions is the biggest short - term disturbance, and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. It's recommended to short at high prices [8] - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral with the latest signal being negative, and the forward - looking indicator is also neutral with the latest signal being negative [11] Group 3: Review and Summary 7 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - The July view was that from a long - term perspective, oil prices were still bearish as the consumption peak season would gradually end. In the short - term, there were many supply - side disturbances. In early August, oil prices oscillated downward due to cracking decline, tariff policies, and optimism about the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. However, strong EIA data and a change in market sentiment about the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month [7] 8 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually loosening, and terminal demand shows some resilience. Supply is expected to increase, and further loosening is expected after the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process and Powell's speech are key factors. The conclusion is that from the month - spread scale, the shift to a looser supply - demand situation is becoming a reality, and it's advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 4: Crude Oil Market Analysis Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the latest signal being negative, touching 4 days out of 5 trading days from 8/7 to 8/13. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the latest signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1. The comprehensive indicator describes the current situation, and the forward - looking indicator focuses on future trends [11] Global Near - month Spread - Global near - month spreads generally declined in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply - demand. Some markets' month - spreads are flattening, and the Middle East market's spreads are relatively strong, which is related to China's imports [14] Crack Spreads - Global crack spreads were generally stable in August, and strengthened to varying degrees in the second half of the month. Although downstream demand is okay, the supply increase from both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ has weakened the near - end spreads [16][17] Global Spot Crack Spreads (Detailed Version) - Global diesel crack spreads strengthened after a period of decline. As the gasoline consumption peak season ends and the diesel demand season approaches, diesel crack spreads will support the downstream of crude oil [19] EIA Weekly Report - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014,000 barrels, exceeding expectations. The decrease was due to strong demand from overseas exports and high refinery operating rates. The diesel market's structural issues may strengthen the distillate crack spreads and refinery demand. Overall, the report implies demand resilience, which can slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short - term [23] Major Energy Agencies' August Reports - IEA and EIA significantly raised supply expectations for the second consecutive month, while OPEC maintained its non - OPEC+ supply expectations. All three agencies' reports suggest that the oil market is moving towards a record surplus [24] Key Changes in Major Energy Agencies' Monthly Reports - IEA and EIA continuously raised supply expectations, and as the traditional consumption peak season ends, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant. OPEC's adjustment of its 2026 forecast is to justify future production increases [25] Russia - Ukraine Peace Process - The main differences between Russia and Ukraine are in territory and security issues. The peace process is a short - term disturbance to the oil market, and after the initial optimism, it may be bullish for oil prices but won't change the long - term bearish trend [26] Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Market generally interprets Powell's speech as dovish, but it is dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September is high, but it depends on data. The Fed's preventive rate cuts are generally bearish for crude oil [27]

Group 1 - The core logic of the gold market in August 2025 is characterized by "high volatility and strong differentiation," with international spot gold fluctuating between $3323 and $3400 per ounce, marking the largest monthly volatility of the year [1][3] - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty, with expectations for a rate cut in September rising from 45% to 75%, serves as a driving force for gold price fluctuations [3] - The trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration have enhanced gold's safe-haven appeal, leading to a global inflow of 170 tons into gold ETFs in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - For ordinary investors, the August market presents both opportunities and challenges, emphasizing the importance of establishing a complete system of "market judgment - platform selection - risk control" [4] - Choosing a regulated platform, such as the AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, is crucial for filtering risks, with Gold盛贵金属 providing transparency through transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots [4] - The efficiency of account opening and liquidity of funds are critical in the concentrated night market of August, with services like instant account opening and two-hour withdrawal times helping investors seize fleeting entry opportunities [4] Group 3 - In the volatile August market, risk control methods for gold investment focus on cost control and tool utilization, with daily fluctuations in international gold prices exceeding $20 [5] - Gold盛贵金属's favorable spread policy and zero-commission model effectively reduce trading costs, providing an "invisible saving" that acts as "additional income" in narrow fluctuation markets [5] - The use of trend-following strategies and real-time market updates from platforms is essential for managing risks, especially in response to sudden news events like the dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor [5] Group 4 - A rational understanding of the market is essential for gold investment, particularly the "seesaw effect" between Federal Reserve policies and gold prices, which has been validated multiple times in August [6] - New investors should prioritize choosing platforms certified by authoritative institutions like the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and avoid unregulated "black platforms" [6] - Utilizing tools like MT4 for stop-loss and take-profit functions can help keep risks within 5% of the principal, while avoiding "guaranteed high returns" claims is crucial due to inherent risks influenced by international situations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is described as a "live" meeting, indicating potential interest rate adjustments, though no specific action plan has been confirmed by the New York Fed President Williams [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Adjustments** - Williams suggests that the current interest rate levels are at a "moderately restrictive" state, allowing for potential rate cuts while maintaining some level of restriction in the future [1] - **Economic Conditions** - The focus is on accurately assessing economic conditions before making any policy changes, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to risks [1] - **Market Expectations** - Following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding rising employment downside risks, investors are betting on a possible rate cut in the September meeting [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the shift from large tech stocks to value stocks is more significant than the Federal Reserve's policies for the stock narrative [1][3] - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the market remains robust, indicating that the current interest rate narrative will intensify the rotation from tech stocks to value stocks [1][3] - The potential for a rate cut in September is acknowledged, but the timing remains uncertain, with the Fed's policy still dependent on economic data [1] Group 2 - Companies sensitive to economic conditions are expected to benefit the most from the current situation, which is favorable for value stocks [3] - The rotation from tech stocks to value stocks is seen as positive for the QQQ ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, and beneficial for the IWM ETF, which tracks the Russell 2000 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The shift from large tech stocks to value stocks is deemed more significant for stock narratives than the Federal Reserve's policies [1] Group 1 - Ilan Benhamou, a derivatives sales expert at JPMorgan, emphasizes that the market remains robust even during the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1] - The potential for increased volatility exists whether the Federal Reserve pauses after a 25 basis point cut or continues to ease [1] - Overall, the Federal Reserve's actions will not have a substantial impact on the market situation [1]

Group A: Macroeconomic Factors - The core factors influencing copper pricing are expected to shift back to macroeconomic and fundamental aspects in the second half of 2025, as the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may not be as pronounced as in the first half [1] - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a "weak but not declining" phase, with GDP growth rates of -0.5% and 3% in Q1 and Q2 2025 respectively, indicating a weakening growth momentum [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely tied to inflation and employment reports, with current inflation pressures not sufficient to prevent potential rate cuts [3] Group B: Supply Constraints - Global copper mine production from January to May 2025 reached 9.524 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, but the growth rate is expected to be below 2.5% for the year due to potential production disruptions [4] - The continuous decline in spot Treatment Charges (TC) has led to a negative TC environment, yet overall smelting output remains resilient due to locked long-term TC contracts and by-product revenues [5] - The balance between mining and smelting capacities needs to improve through sustained mining capacity release and smelting capacity optimization [6] Group C: Demand Resilience - Global refined copper consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with China's consumption growing robustly at 12.18%, offsetting declines in the EU, U.S., and Japan [8] - Strong demand in China is primarily driven by investments in the power grid and renewable energy sectors, with total investment in the power grid exceeding 825 billion yuan in 2025 [9] - Despite the resilience in demand, challenges may arise in the second half of 2025 due to high base effects from 2024 and potential weakening in appliance and photovoltaic sectors [9] Group D: Inventory Trends - Current global visible copper inventory stands at approximately 600,000 tons, with a reduction of about 200,000 tons from March to June 2025, and a potential for further reduction in the upcoming peak seasons [10] - Concerns about high COMEX copper inventory levels exist, but a decrease in copper material imports due to tariffs may stimulate domestic processing demand, helping to alleviate excess inventory [10] Group E: Overall Market Outlook - The overall fundamental situation for copper appears favorable, with LME copper prices expected to fluctuate between $9,400 and $10,000 per ton [15] - Supply constraints and resilient demand provide a solid support for prices, while risks include inflation pressures limiting the Fed's rate-cutting ability and excess COMEX inventory suppressing price increases [15]

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in dollar demand has suppressed the buying power of the euro against the dollar, leading to a reversal of most gains made after Powell's speech last Friday, where the EUR/USD pair had briefly surpassed the 1.1700 mark [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at the July 24 high of 1.1788, with further resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.1830 reached on July 1. A breakthrough of 1.1830 could lead to testing the September 3, 2021 high of 1.1909, which is close to the 1.2000 level [3]. - Temporary support is located at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1488, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the May 29 low of 1.1210 [3]. - Momentum indicators show a lack of clear direction, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 51, suggesting limited upside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 11, indicating a sideways trend [3]. Market Outlook - The EUR/USD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with the dollar likely to dominate the overall trend until a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance or new trade-related developments occur [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data includes a decline in durable goods orders by 4.0%, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by 0.3%. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone was reported at 87, below the consensus of 90 [6]. Trade Relations - The trade tensions have eased with the U.S. and China extending the tariff truce for 90 days, delaying new tariff measures. Current tariffs remain high, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods [7]. Central Bank Perspectives - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Powell's balanced remarks contrasting with the dovish stance of other board members. Upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report and inflation data, are critical for future policy decisions [8]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy is "robust, even slightly better than expected," but markets do not anticipate rate cuts until spring 2026 [9]. Speculative Sentiment - Speculative long positions in the euro have increased to nearly 118,700 contracts, a three-week high, while institutional investors have reduced short positions to about 166,400 contracts, a two-week low. Open interest has risen for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately 825,200 contracts [10].

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,386.27, with a latest price of $3,376.48 per ounce, reflecting a 0.32% increase, and has seen a high of $3,386.27 and a low of $3,350.89 during the session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the two-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 3.728% and the ten-year yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 4.271%, leading to a flattening of the yield curve to 54 basis points [2] - The stock market saw a collective decline, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% to 6,439.32 points, the Nasdaq down 0.22% to 21,449.29 points, and the Dow Jones falling 0.77% to 45,282.47 points, reflecting a shift to a cautious investor sentiment [2] Group 2 - The monthly chart shows gold prices have formed four consecutive candlesticks with upper shadows, establishing a solid foundation for a bearish trend [3] - The impact of tariff factors has been fully priced in by the market, and new tariff policies are unlikely to have the same strong shock effect as during the early Trump administration [3] - The geopolitical influence has significantly weakened, with conflicts being mostly small-scale and lacking substantial involvement from major powers [3] - The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts has been a topic of speculation for two years, with the narrative of "the wolf is coming" repeatedly emerging [3] - Future gold prices are expected to gradually decline, potentially testing support levels at $3,120 and $3,268, with a final target area around $3,000 to $2,950 [3] - There remains uncertainty in the short to medium-term regarding whether gold will first break through resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 before declining or if it will be directly constrained by this resistance and experience a sharp decline [3]

Group 1 - The recent movements in the global bond market are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with Powell hinting at a potential interest rate cut as early as next month [1] - The U.S. Treasury prices have risen significantly, leading to the steepest yield curve steepening in nearly four years, which has improved market sentiment [1] - Market skepticism remains regarding the extent and sustainability of potential rate cuts, with futures pricing indicating an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17 meeting [4] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting key employment and inflation data to confirm the monetary policy direction, indicating that future market movements will depend on upcoming macroeconomic indicators [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly to 3.7%, close to the low point earlier this month, following a jobs report that showed a notable slowdown in employment growth [4] - The interest rate swap market is beginning to price in the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, with some investors even betting on three cuts [4] Group 3 - Despite a positive reaction in the bond market to Powell's statements, the magnitude of this response remains limited due to conflicting economic signals [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, while inflation remains at a high level, forcing the Federal Reserve to weigh risks when considering policy easing [6] - The upcoming personal consumption expenditures price index will be crucial; if inflation pressures remain strong, market confidence in further easing may be challenged [4][6] Group 4 - Attention is also required for the upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions covering two-year, five-year, and seven-year bonds, as investor subscription rates will reflect long-term interest rate outlooks and gauge risk appetite [6] - The uncertainty persists, as even with the Fed's easing measures last year, economic resilience led to a pause in actions at the beginning of this year [6] - The bond market's current positive response to Powell's remarks is contingent on future data performance, with employment and inflation being key determinants of the Fed's policy path [6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]