上周公布的经济、就业和通胀新报告加剧了美联储面临的困境。 GDP报告显示， 美国经济在 2025年初出现三年来的首次萎缩 ，这主要归因于进口商为了赶在特朗普总统关税生效前抢购； 上周五公布的4月就业报告 也显示，即使在特朗普"解放日"声明震动市场后的几周内，劳动力市 场依然保持韧性。 以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 来源 | 金十财经 在美联储本周再次召开议息会议之际， 它面临的最大问题是如何努力应对关税引发的粘性通胀与 经济放缓之间的"拉锯战"，以及一位想要更宽松货币政策的美国总统 。 美联储对于这个困境的解决方式，可能意味着美国未来几个月的利率走向。 美国总统特朗普近几周已明确表达了他的观点：他希望在经济可能因其贸易政策放缓之前降息。 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎态度不满 ，鲍威尔曾表示，美联储将"等待更明朗的情况"，同时权 衡其稳定物价和充分就业的双重使命。他上月表示，经济在"今年剩余时间，或者至少不会取得 太大进展"的情况下，将极有可能偏离美联储的两个目标。 美联储偏好的通胀指标显示， 3月物价年化增长率放缓至2.6% ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," which have exceeded market expectations, leading to substantial volatility in financial markets. The average tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. has risen to 27%, with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 146.2% [1][6][20] - The economic effects of tariffs are characterized by "stagflation," with debates surrounding the relative strength of stagnation versus inflation. Tariffs are expected to peak in their impact on inflation and economic growth within 3-4 quarters, with early inflation rates rising more steeply [2][20][74] - The article highlights that if tariff levels remain unchanged, the probability of a U.S. economic recession may significantly increase, with a potential shift from "stagflation" to "recession" starting in the third quarter of the year [20][74] Group 2 - The typical recession path in the U.S. involves overheating, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, credit tightening, and subsequent economic downturns. The current economic structure does not align with historical recession patterns, as private capital expenditure has not shown significant contraction [3][25][34] - The labor market and consumer spending are crucial to the U.S. economy, with rising unemployment rates being a necessary condition for recession. However, without external shocks, increases in unemployment may be temporary [4][44][32] Group 3 - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. financial markets have experienced significant turmoil, with notable pressure on liquidity. The refinancing pressures in the short term are a primary concern, but the transmission from liquidity shocks to systemic financial pressure remains manageable [5][49][50] - The article emphasizes that while short-term systemic risks in the U.S. financial market should not be overstated, long-term risks related to the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve should be monitored [49][74]

积极面： Q1财报已公布四分之三，这些是市场抓到的趋势 随着第一季度财报季已完成超过四分之三，以下是卖方研究中一些最值得关注的要点。 整体情况： 截至目前，第一季度财报表现远好于预期，盈利增长达到+12%，是原先预期+6%的两倍，也明显优于 去年同期7%的每股收益增长。 企业普遍不愿提供前瞻性指引，即使有也维持现有水平。只有17%的标普500公司提供了下季度指引， 略低于平均水平；而有45%的公司提供了全年（FY1）指引，基本符合平均水平。在提供FY1指引的公 司中，维持之前指引比例高于平均。我们认为这种现象部分反映了企业在关税政策不确定性下，不愿贸 然调整指引。例如，部分公司在财报电话会议中提到其最新指引尚未反映关税影响（如 ABBV、 LKQ、MMM）。 利润率好于预期（尽管市场已预期较高），是目前正面惊喜的主因，平均每股收益超预期幅度为5%， 而销售额仅为1%。利润率通常是衰退的领先指标（利润率下滑往往意味着成本削减增加）。 负面： 高盛的销售与资本支出预测修正广度追踪指标显示，不确定性开始影响需求与投资（尽管还未达到最近 几次衰退的水平）。高盛预期市场对一致预期将进一步下调，但由于投资者已普遍意识到当 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" has exceeded market expectations, leading to significant financial market turbulence and raising concerns about the economic impact and potential recession in the U.S. [1][20][79] - The average tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. has risen to 27% (24% after exemptions), with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 146.2%, contributing 20 percentage points to the overall rate [6][79][80] - The economic effect of tariffs is characterized as "stagflation," with market debates focusing on the balance between stagnation and inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy response [8][20][80] Group 2 - The probability of a U.S. recession is expected to rise significantly if tariff levels remain unchanged or are only slightly eased, with the market likely to grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation in the coming quarters [2][20][74] - The typical recession path in the U.S. involves overheating, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, credit contraction, and either hard or soft landings, but current economic structures do not align with this typical path [3][25][81] - Private capital expenditure has historically been a major contributor to GDP contraction during recessions, with an average GDP shrinkage of 1.7% during such periods, primarily driven by declines in private capital spending [3][25][36][81] Group 3 - Financial vulnerabilities have emerged since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, with significant pressure on U.S. capital markets, including stocks, bonds, and currencies [4][49][50] - Short-term refinancing pressures in U.S. Treasury and corporate debt markets are a primary concern, but the transmission of liquidity shocks to systemic financial pressures remains manageable [49][50][62] - The Federal Reserve's independence and fiscal sustainability are critical factors influencing the credit risk associated with the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities in the long term [50][62][74]

在美联储本周再次召开议息会议之际，它面临的最大问题是如何努力应对关税引发的粘性通胀与经济放 缓之间的"拉锯战"，以及一位想要更宽松货币政策的美国总统。 美联储对于这个困境的解决方式，可能意味着美国未来几个月的利率走向。 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎态度不满，鲍威尔曾表示，美联储将"等待更明朗的情况"，同时权衡其稳 定物价和充分就业的双重使命。他上月表示，经济在"今年剩余时间，或者至少不会取得太大进展"的情 况下，将极有可能偏离美联储的两个目标。 上周公布的经济、就业和通胀新报告加剧了美联储面临的困境。GDP报告显示，美国经济在2025年初出 现三年来的首次萎缩，这主要归因于进口商为了赶在特朗普总统关税生效前抢购；上周五公布的4月就 业报告也显示，即使在特朗普"解放日"声明震动市场后的几周内，劳动力市场依然保持韧性。 美联储偏好的通胀指标显示，3月物价年化增长率放缓至2.6%，但该季度仍高于预期的3.5%。这两个数 据都高于美联储2%的目标。 一些经济学家预计未来几个月通胀将进一步走高，经济将进一步下滑。 "拉锯战" 美国总统特朗普近几周已明确表达了他的观点：他希望在经济可能因其贸易政策放缓之前降息。 Wilmi ...

Group 1 - The market narrative is expected to oscillate between recession and stagflation until trade issues are resolved, the Federal Reserve begins to ease policies, or inflationary pressures fail to build [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the economic growth outlook, leading to expectations of declining yields [1] - BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen expresses concerns about further weakening economic data in the short term [1] Group 2 - HSBC strategists, including Nicole Inui, highlight the need for clarity on economic conditions to stabilize market expectations [1]

华尔街又一机构"认栽"，这次是汇丰银行。 在这种环境下，汇丰建议投资者保持防御性持仓，偏好经济下行中抗压能力较强的行业，例如消费必需 品(如食品、日用品)与医疗保健。在滞涨时期，大宗商品与医疗行业的表现也通常优于大盘；相反，公 用事业和可选消费品公司往往表现不佳。 智通财经APP获悉，由于对美国经济增长放缓、通胀持续粘性以及债券收益率下滑的预期，汇丰周二宣 布将标普500指数的年底目标点位从6700点大幅下调至5600点。 这一决定与今年以来多家大银行因关税担忧而调低美股预期的动作一致。汇丰表示，在全球经济前景依 旧不明、关税政策仍具不确定性的情况下，建议客户采取防御性策略应对市场动荡。 汇丰美洲区股票策略主管Nicole Inui与分析师Preethkar Rajamani在报告中指出："市场将在衰退和滞涨的 担忧之间来回震荡，直到贸易不确定性缓解、美联储降息、或通胀压力不再加剧。" 他们预计美联储将在6月启动降息周期，但指出通胀与关税方面的忧虑仍需数月时间才能消散。因此， 即使利率政策出现转向，市场仍会高度关注关键经济数据，并据此进行敏感反应。 他们表示："如果硬数据转弱，市场将迅速进入'衰退交易'模式； ...

欧洲央行仍具有逐步降息的空间。 2025年和2026年，关税并不会在欧洲引发更多通胀。 欧洲央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy：关税并没有在欧洲引起额外通胀。 不认为法国或者欧洲会陷入衰退。 ...

由于关税引发的衰退和滞胀风险，摩根大通认为，黄金的结构性牛市将继续增强。 摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer团队在22日的研报中预测， 黄金价格将于2025年第四季度达到均价3675美元/盎司，并在2026年第二季度突破4000美元/盎司关 口。 | Figure 1: JPM gold & silver price forecasts | | --- | | | | 4Q2024A | A WE SCHERESS: WARRENDER BREIN SECTION SECTION SEE WINNER 2024A | 1Q2025A | 202025 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | 2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 | 3Q2026 | 4Q2026 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | New | 2,664 | 2,389 | 2,872 | 3.400 | 3,515 | 3 675 | 3,365 | 3,840 ...

阿波罗全球管理公司CEO：我认为我们目前并不处于衰退之中。 ...