1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Risk assets and regulatory disturbances were the main reasons for the multiple declines in the bond market in the third quarter, indicating that the core drivers of fundamentals and liquidity remained unchanged, and there was no risk of a cyclical reversal from the underlying framework of the bond market [1][16]. - Most of the negative disturbances in the third quarter were unrelated to the fundamentals and liquidity levels and were fully reflected in the current pricing, so there was no reason to be pessimistic about the fourth quarter. The central bank provided consistent support in terms of liquidity throughout the third quarter. The weakening of fundamental data in August increased the necessity of macro - policy support, which might lead to a shift in the focus of monetary policy towards "stable growth" [5]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may face pressure at the beginning, but there may be a downward opportunity with the implementation of policy加码. The central government may increase overall policies, and monetary policy may be implemented first by the end of the year. The central level of treasury bond yields in the fourth quarter may decline slightly compared to the end of the third quarter, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond at the end of the third quarter around 1.87% and may fall below 1.8%, and the quarterly oscillation range around 1.78% - 1.95% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third Quarter: Exogenous Factors Dominated - **Market Review** - **July**: Policy implementation and rising expectations led to a significant improvement in risk appetite. At the beginning of July, the bond market continued the strong and narrow - range oscillation trend of the second quarter. The implementation of anti - involution policies and the announcement of a trillion - level infrastructure project in Yajiang Motuo Hydropower Station worried the market about the double impact of "rising inflation + significant investment increase" on bonds. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose from 1.66% at the beginning of July to 1.74%, an increase of 8bp [19]. - **August**: The seesaw effect between the bond market and risk assets weakened as the A - share market turned to a structural market [16]. - **September**: Regulatory disturbances and marginal signals emerged. The release of the draft public offering fee opinion at the end of the third quarter had a new impact on the market [16]. - **Core Issues** - The key issues in looking forward to the fourth quarter were whether the above negative factors were fully reflected and whether the bond market logic could return to its own fundamentals [16]. 3.2 Valuation Still Has Room for Repair - **Domestic Loose Expectations Are Stable**: The short - end cost - performance of the 10 - year treasury bond has been repaired, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined [23]. - **The Cost - Performance of Stocks and Bonds Has Rebounded**: The cost - performance of stocks and bonds has improved, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has a certain relationship with the dividend rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 [37][39]. - **"Deposit Migration" Still Needs Observation**: No specific content was provided in the text. 3.3 Waiting for the Swing Moment of Policy Focus - **Monetary Policy Has Been Stable Since the Third Quarter**: Monetary policy has been stable overall since the third quarter. The central bank carried out a large - scale interest rate transmission system reform and actively maintained market sentiment through open - market operations, indicating that the supportive stance of monetary policy remained unchanged and the upward trend of bond market yields was limited [44]. - **Multi - Dimensional Reforms to Stabilize the Market** - **The Second Joint Meeting of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance**: On September 3, the joint working group of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance held the second group leader meeting, discussing issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. This meeting was more focused on financial market operation and helped to stabilize market sentiment [49]. - **Changes in the Monetary Policy Framework: Adjustment of Primary Dealer Evaluation**: On September 12, relevant adjustments were made to the evaluation of primary dealers, which involved multiple aspects such as money market transmission, bond market market - making, and compliance and stable operation [51]. - **The Central Bank Adjusted the Bidding Mode of 14 - day Reverse Repos, Aligning with MLF**: On September 19, the central bank adjusted the bidding mode of 14 - day reverse repos to align with MLF, which had an impact on the market [52]. 3.4 Fundamentals: Pay Attention to the Risk of a Second Decline - In the first half of the year, GDP was significantly repaired with the support of the supply side. After seeing the problem of the decline in industrial enterprise profits, the policy shifted from stabilizing growth to stabilizing prices, which led to a slowdown in production. Since July, the manufacturing PMI reading has declined again, and industrial added value has decreased synchronously. After the data in August was released, the potential risk of a second decline may lead to a swing in the policy focus again [65].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted a series of key policy signals, indicating a flexible adjustment of monetary policy amid low inflation and marginal improvements in macroeconomic indicators [1][3]. Economic Situation - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers. Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low inflation, China's economy is showing signs of stability and improvement [3][4]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to July [3][4]. Monetary Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on utilizing existing resources effectively rather than introducing new measures. This shift indicates confidence in the effectiveness of previously implemented policies [6][7]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, promoting economic stability and maintaining reasonable price levels through better coordination with fiscal policy [6][7]. Future Expectations - There is a possibility of new growth-stabilizing policies in the fourth quarter, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate consumption and investment [7][9]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be prioritized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [8][9]. Bond Market Insights - The meeting reiterated the importance of monitoring long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to 1.8%. The PBOC is cautious about large-scale government bond purchases, preferring to manage liquidity and utilize existing policy tools [9][10]. - The potential for resuming government bond purchases will depend on market conditions and external economic influences, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations and guiding interest rates downward [10][11].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices declined for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones down 173.96 points (0.38%) at 45947.32, the Nasdaq down 113.16 points (0.50%) at 22384.70, and the S&P 500 down 33.25 points (0.50%) at 6604.72, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 136.90 points (0.58%) at 23544.80, the UK's FTSE 100 down 36.88 points (0.40%) at 9213.55, and France's CAC40 down 32.03 points (0.41%) at 7795.42 [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $0.01 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.02%, while Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose by $0.11 to $69.42 per barrel, an increase of 0.16% [2] - Bitcoin dropped over 3% to $109,421.30, and Ethereum fell over 6% to $3,903.01 [3] Precious Metals and Forex - Spot gold increased by over 0.3% to $3,749.04 [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.7% to 98.554, with the euro trading at $1.1653, the pound at $1.3335, and the yen at ¥149.89 [4] Economic Data - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, revised up from 3.3%, indicating strong consumer and business spending resilience [5] - Economists expect the upcoming August personal consumption expenditure data to show nearly a 3% increase year-over-year [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested the possibility of a rapid 50 basis point rate cut to mitigate economic risks, emphasizing the need for timely adjustments to monetary policy [6] - Dallas Fed President Logan proposed shifting from the federal funds rate to an overnight rate linked to U.S. Treasury collateral for more effective monetary policy execution [6] Mortgage Rates - U.S. mortgage rates rose to 6.3%, ending a streak of declines, which may impact affordability for potential buyers [8] - Economists believe that a drop below 6% could encourage more homeowners to sell, increasing the supply of second-hand homes [8] Regulatory Developments - Meta is facing potential EU charges for inadequate regulation of illegal content on its platforms, which could result in fines up to 6% of its global annual revenue [10] - Google may face a second significant fine from the EU related to competition law violations, following a previous fine of €2.95 billion for preferential treatment of its own advertising services [11]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman warns of the risk of falling behind the economic curve as signs of weakness emerge in the U.S. labor market, urging decisive action to address declining employment vitality to avoid larger future policy adjustments [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market and Policy Actions - Recent employment data indicates a weakening U.S. labor market, prompting Bowman to advocate for proactive measures from the Federal Open Market Committee [3]. - Multiple indicators, including revisions to non-farm payroll data, signal potential issues, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust interest rates more rapidly and significantly if current trends persist [3]. - Bowman previously suggested three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, and the Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points, with most policymakers expecting two more cuts this year [3][5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Bowman's stance aligns with another board member advocating for aggressive rate cuts to prevent economic damage, while others, like Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, prefer a cautious approach, emphasizing the need for more time to observe inflation trends [5]. - Bowman cautions against over-reliance on lagging data, arguing that strict adherence to data can lead to delayed policy adjustments that may necessitate more drastic corrections in the future [5]. Group 3: Inflation and Future Outlook - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation have eased, allowing for more flexible interest rate adjustments [9]. - The discussions within the Fed regarding policy pace are intensifying as labor market signals shift, with Bowman's comments highlighting the need for a balance between data reliance and forward-looking judgments [9].

新华财经北京9月24日电美联储主席鲍威尔23日表示，美国经济正面临通胀上升与就业下行的＂双向风 险＂，这一局面使货币政策制定面临艰难抉择。 在罗德岛州出席商会活动时，鲍威尔指出，短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，"这是一个 极具挑战性的局面＂。鲍威尔强调，通胀率已上升并保持＂略高＂水平，关税对通胀的总体影响＂仍有 待观察＂。 近期数据显示，美国经济增速放缓，失业率虽仍处低位但已出现轻微上升，住房市场疲软，消费者支出 出现降温迹象。 关于劳动力市场，鲍威尔指出，劳动力供给和需求双双明显放缓，就业下行风险增加。他强调，当前劳 动力市场的疲软＂并非全由移民因素导致＂，需求明显放缓，当前招聘率和解雇率都很低。 美联储于9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 4.00%-4.25%之间，这是美联储2025年首次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后的再次降息。值得注意的 是，由美国总统特朗普提名、刚刚出任美联储理事的白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在此次会议 上投下唯一反对票，认为此次降息幅度应达到50个基点。 近期，特朗普政府对美联储施加压力，要求大幅降息，甚至试图罢免美 ...

分组1 - Newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myron advocated for a larger rate cut at the recent FOMC meeting, suggesting a half percentage point cut instead of the quarter point cut agreed upon by his colleagues [2][4]. - Myron does not perceive significant inflation from tariffs and believes that maintaining interest rates at restrictive levels could harm the labor market [2][3]. - He has projected a total of six rate cuts for the year, including the recent one, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [3][4]. 分组2 - The upcoming week will feature multiple speeches from FOMC members, including Myron, which may provide further insights into their economic outlook and policy direction [8][9]. - Morgan Stanley's chief US economist, Michael Gapen, noted that the Fed is recalibrating its stance towards a more neutral policy, anticipating two additional rate cuts by the end of the year [14][19]. - Concerns about the labor market's weakness and inflation persist, with Gapen highlighting the potential risks associated with tariffs and their impact on corporate labor decisions [22][23]. 分组3 - Core Weave's stock is experiencing a rise following a buy rating from Loop Capital, which emphasizes the company's strong ties to major AI providers like Microsoft [26][27]. - The nuclear energy sector is gaining attention due to a new cooperation agreement between the US and UK, with projections indicating a significant market potential of $10 trillion by 2050 [31]. - Fiverr's stock received an upgrade from BTIG, with analysts noting the company's restructuring efforts and potential cost savings, despite challenges posed by the gig economy and AI advancements [34][36].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25% [1][2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in economic activity growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1][2] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and maintain a long-term inflation rate of 2%, while acknowledging high uncertainty in the current economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates was influenced by increased downside risks in the labor market, which were a significant consideration for the policy adjustment [1][2] - The Fed will continue to monitor a wide range of economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to guide future monetary policy adjustments [2] - The recent rate cut was passed with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against, reflecting a consensus on the need to address potential growth risks despite ongoing inflation concerns [2]

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, influenced by the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to hold its rates steady, with market participants looking for signals regarding future rate hikes amid ongoing inflation pressures [3]. - Several countries, including Peru and Turkey, have already initiated rate cuts, with Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points and Turkey by 250 basis points, indicating a trend towards easing monetary policy in response to local economic conditions [4]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Global Implications - Emerging market central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, facing pressures such as currency depreciation and capital outflows, which may dictate their monetary policy adjustments [5]. - The potential for the Fed to cut rates could create more room for other central banks to adjust their policies, although actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5].

Core Viewpoint - A significant global monetary policy shift is anticipated as multiple central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, prepare to announce interest rate decisions within a short timeframe, impacting global capital flows and financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is particularly noteworthy due to recent personnel changes, including the confirmation of Stephen Milan as a board member, which may influence the decision-making process [2]. - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with a possibility of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, depending on the voting inclinations of newly confirmed members [2][3]. - Analysts predict a more dovish outlook in the Fed's dot plot, with guidance suggesting 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Other Central Banks' Actions - The Bank of Canada is expected to follow the Fed's lead and implement a rate cut due to concerns over economic growth [3]. - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its current rate at 4%, following a previous cut of 25 basis points, which was narrowly approved [3]. - The Bank of Japan is likely to hold its rates steady but is under pressure to signal future rate hikes due to ongoing inflation concerns [3]. Group 3: Global Rate Cuts - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts ahead of the Fed, including Peru, which reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% due to easing inflation pressures [4]. - Turkey's central bank cut its rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations, while Russia lowered its rate by 100 basis points to 17% [4]. - These actions indicate a broader trend of monetary easing globally, potentially influenced by the Fed's decisions [4]. Group 4: Implications for Emerging Markets - The Fed's potential rate cuts may create room for adjustments in monetary policy among emerging market central banks, although the specific actions will depend on each country's economic fundamentals [5]. - Emerging markets face unique challenges, including currency depreciation pressures and capital outflow risks, which will influence their policy responses to the Fed's actions [5].

Group 1 - The upcoming week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions within a short timeframe [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are particularly influential, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut of 25 basis points, and a possibility of a 50 basis points cut due to recent personnel changes within the Fed [2][3] - The Bank of Canada is also expected to follow suit with a rate cut, while the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain its rate at 4% amidst a complex economic situation [3] Group 2 - Several countries have already initiated rate cuts, with the Central Bank of Peru reducing its rate by 25 basis points, citing a decrease in inflation pressures [4] - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a significant cut of 250 basis points, lowering its rate to 40.5%, which exceeded market expectations [5] - The adjustments in monetary policy by various central banks are influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, but each country's economic conditions will dictate their specific policy paths [5]