Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces dual policy risks of potential interest rate hikes or significant cuts in the next 12 months, with current market pricing reflecting only the baseline scenario [1][3] - The probability of an interest rate hike is assessed at around 15%, linked to Republican fiscal expansion and tariff transmission, with tariffs potentially driving inflation [1] - Current average tariffs on U.S. imports have reached the highest level since 1938 at 15%, indicating that price increases driven by tariffs have not fully materialized yet [1] Group 2 - The risk of interest rate cuts arises from a potential unexpected weakening in the labor market, which could lead to cuts exceeding the current Wall Street expectation of 100 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that achieving a neutral interest rate would require "multiple rate cuts," but tariff policies may push inflation higher, creating a policy tension with calls for significant rate cuts [3] - The current federal funds rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for over six months, with market pricing indicating a delay in the first rate cut to September and a reduction in the total cut magnitude to 50 basis points for the year [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates and indicated a slower pace for future rate cuts, with Powell stating that high inflation persists [2] - The spot gold market reacted to the news, experiencing a slight decline, reaching a low of $3362.58 per ounce and closing at $3369.15 per ounce [2] - Future market trends should be monitored closely, particularly regarding trade tariffs, geopolitical developments, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction along with U.S. Treasury yields [2] Group 2 - In the spot gold market, the hourly chart shows a consolidation phase, with a short-term 15-minute chart also indicating a range-bound movement between $3362.00 and $3380.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3362.00, a short position may be considered, targeting $3352.00 to $3342.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3380.00, a long position may be initiated, with targets set at $3390.00 to $3400.00, and a stop loss of $5.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with the hourly chart indicating a range between $36.500 and $36.980, suggesting a buy low and sell high strategy [6] - A break below the support level of $36.500 per ounce may prompt the establishment of a short position, targeting $36.150 to $35.800 per ounce [6] - If the market successfully breaks above $36.980 per ounce, a long position may be pursued, with potential targets of $37.400 to $37.900 per ounce, and a stop loss of $0.200 per ounce [6]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan announced to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and revealed a significant policy shift to halve bond purchases to 200 billion yen per quarter starting from the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The decision to maintain the current bond purchase reduction path until March 2026 lays the groundwork for future monetary policy changes [1] - There is a notable internal disagreement within the Bank of Japan regarding the pace of bond purchase reductions, with committee member Naoki Tamura advocating for a continued reduction of 400 billion yen per quarter [3] Group 2 - Global risks are intensifying, with escalating Middle East conflicts increasing risk aversion and a strong dollar suppressing the yen's exchange rate [3] - The ongoing stalemate in US-Japan tariff negotiations poses additional challenges, with potential auto tariffs from the Trump administration looming [3] - The market reacted sharply to the policy announcement, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing significant volatility, highlighting traders' sensitivity to the policy shift [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's strategic divergence from the Federal Reserve is becoming apparent, with a policy review window set for June 2026 to assess the bond purchase plan [4] - Geopolitical risks and trade protectionism are creating a challenging environment for monetary policy, making the statements from the Bank of Japan's governor critical for international financial markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is at a critical juncture regarding its monetary policy, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% during the upcoming meeting, but signs indicate a potential shift towards rate cuts in the near future [1][4]. Economic Data Divergence: Inflation vs. Growth - The UK faces a mixed economic environment, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining high at 3.5% and service sector inflation spiking to 5.4% in April, significantly above the Bank's 2% target [2]. - The labor market is deteriorating, with employment numbers declining for 9 out of the last 10 months and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - Private sector wage growth has dropped from 6% to 5%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the Bank's May forecast, indicating economic strain [2]. Policy Divergence and Market Expectations - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed internal divisions, with a 5-4 vote to lower the rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, reflecting differing views on wage growth and labor market adjustments [3]. - Market pricing suggests traders expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with a year-end rate forecast of 3.75% [3]. - The Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, indicated that if inflation targets are threatened, more aggressive actions may be taken, although current data suggests a balance between falling inflation and economic weakness [3]. Future Outlook: Rate Cuts on the Horizon - The Bank of England is likely to remain on hold in June, but the probability of a rate cut in August exceeds 80%, driven by weak labor market conditions and slowing wage growth [4]. - If service sector inflation peaks and declines in Q2, a second rate cut in November may become inevitable [4]. - Despite CPI expected to remain above 3% for the year, falling energy prices and easing global trade tensions could accelerate inflation decline [4]. - The Bank faces dual challenges of unmet inflation targets and weakening economic momentum, with current rates still in a contractionary zone, allowing room for adjustments [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report (2025.06.09 - 06.13) [2] - Report Scope: Gold and silver futures - Data Sources: Wind, MySteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][28][48] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Gold is in a "safe - haven + interest rate cut expectation" dual - drive stage. In the short term, beware of market fluctuations due to data and policy changes. In the long - term, factors such as geopolitical risks, de - dollarization, and interest rate cut expectations support the gold price. Monitor the impact of US economic data on monetary policy and the progress of tariff policies [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support is 738 - 746, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12] - AI Diagnosis: The daily trend is in a sideways phase, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a significant bearish attitude, and the capital energy remains basically stable. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [13] 1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The recent upward breakthrough of silver is the result of the resonance of four factors: rotation of safe - haven assets, rigid growth of industrial demand, expectation of monetary policy shift, and technical breakthrough. The core driving forces are the structural demand from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Tariff policy concerns and the weakening of the US dollar provide short - term boosts. In the long - term, silver prices are affected by multiple factors such as industrial demand, monetary policy, geopolitics, gold - silver ratio repair, and market sentiment. When allocating silver, pay attention to the development of the global new energy industry, Fed policy trends, geopolitical risks, and changes in the silver supply - demand pattern [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [35] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the silver contract 2508 to be relatively strong, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the silver contract 2508 to oscillate in a large range, recommended grid trading in the range of 7000 - 8800 [37] - AI Diagnosis: The overall trend is in an upward channel, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a strong bullish sentiment, with a rapid influx of capital. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [38] 2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

尽管关税暂停协议为市场注入短期信心，但上述风险因素相互交织，可能对经济韧性形成持续性考验。 当前美债收益率曲线陡峭化走势与经济衰退预期降温形成反差，折射出市场对财政可持续性与货币政策 转向的深层担忧。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管债券市场持续对美国长期财政健康状况敲响警钟，但自中美关税暂停协议生效 以来，市场对美国经济年内陷入衰退的预期已显著降温。据预测平台Polymarket数据显示，本月初市场 预估的衰退概率一度高达67%，而当前该数值已回落至40%以下。不过，阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济 学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克指出，美国经济前景仍暗藏多重风险。其最新报告列出的十大下行风险包括： 4、企业经营环境恶化：企业制定经营计划时面临极高不确定性，市场信心持续低迷; 5、消费动能趋弱：沃尔玛等零售巨头数据显示，物价上涨正抑制居民消费支出; 6、信心指标疲软：密歇根大学消费者信心指数长期处于历史低位; 7、旅游业受挫：国际商务与休闲旅行需求增长乏力; 8、学生贷款重启：超4000万美国人需自10月起恢复偿还学生贷款; 9、地产市场遇冷：抵押贷款利率攀升导致住房需求持续收缩; 10、行政效率波动：政府人事调整可能对政策执行稳定 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below the psychological level of 144.00, reaching a two-week low, driven by expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy despite weak trade data [1][3] - Japan's core CPI has risen for 27 consecutive months, with service price increases at their highest since 1993, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting speculation about a potential interest rate hike in 2025 [3] - The USD is under pressure due to two main factors: the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and Fitch's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, leading to a reassessment of the attractiveness of USD assets [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken key support levels, with the next target being the 143.65-143.60 area, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 144.55 and 145.00, with any technical rebounds likely viewed as short-selling opportunities unless the price can reclaim 145.40 [4] - The market sentiment has shifted from merely trading interest rate differentials to speculating on policy expectation differences, indicating potential volatility due to discrepancies between actual policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and market expectations [5]

2025.05. 14 BMO私人财富策略师卡萝尔·施利夫（Carol Schleif）指出，关税暂停期恰逢美国零售商补库周 期，"供应链成本压力缓解为年末消费旺季提供缓冲"。 科技板块以2.25%涨幅领跑，加密货币交易所Coinbase因纳入标普500指数成分股单日暴涨24%。医 疗健康板块重挫2.97%，联合健康集团CEO突然离职及业绩指引撤回引发行业担忧。 大型科技股多数上涨。 英伟达收涨逾5%，创2月27日以来收盘新高；特斯拉涨近5%，为2月24日以 来最佳表现。 奈飞与Meta涨幅均超2%；苹果、亚马逊、英特尔均上涨逾1%；谷歌小幅走高；微软 小幅回落。 中概股表现分化，纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.07%。热门中概股多数下跌，阿里巴巴跌0.72%，理 想汽车跌1.48%，蔚来跌1.79%，哔哩哔哩跌2.44%，名创优品跌3.97%，万国数据跌6.14%。涨幅方 面，拼多多涨2.64%，京东涨3.33%，腾讯音乐涨2.58%。 经济数据方面，通胀数据整体温和，进一步强化了市场对货币政策转向的押注。 美国公布4月消费者 价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，低于市场预期的0.3%，同比涨幅放缓至2.3%， ...

研究报告 股指月报 短期上行可期，中期压力犹存 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 6 日星期二 【行情复盘】： 上周 IC2505 报收于 5590.2 点，相较前月下 跌 188.6 点，跌幅 3.26%。IM2505 报收于 5905.4 点，相较前月下跌 220.8 点，涨幅 3.6%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、基本面分析： （一）根据最新经济数据，美国 2025 年第一季度实际 GDP 年 化环比增长率录得 - 0.3%，显著低于市场预期值，暴露出经济增长 动能的阶段性疲弱。尽管市场对美国消费市场的前景仍持乐观态度， 且在关税压力下美国经 ...