摘要今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3357.70美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3359.85美元/盎司，跌幅0.24%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3357.70美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看空走势。 今日周五（7月25日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于3357.70美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金暂报 3359.85美元/盎司，跌幅0.24%，最高上探3373.25美元/盎司，最低触及3357.70美元/盎司。目前来看， 国际黄金短线偏向看空走势。 回顾欧央行于7月24日召开的会议，其决定维持三项关键利率不变。该行明确指出，若要在9月会议上采 取降息举措，面临的门槛相对较高。除非经济形势出现明显放缓且风险进一步加剧，否则理事会大概率 将继续维持现有利率水平。 市场曾流传有关美国与欧盟贸易谈判取得突破性进展的消息，但白宫方面迅速予以否认，称此类说法纯 属猜测。此前，据报道曾披露一则重要信息：在特朗普发出拟征收30%关税的信函后，欧盟或考虑同意 双方相互加征关税，且该关税措施预计于8月1日正式生效。 从利率市场预期来看，美联储在7月30日召开的会议上极有可能维持当前利 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector generally rebounded last weekend and strengthened. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs has temporarily eased, and the market is now focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. China's anti - involution policies and expected major infrastructure projects are boosting the demand for industrial products, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability is average. The current rebound is regarded as a phased one, with short - term cautious bullish operations recommended, while avoiding over - chasing the rise [12][13]. Group 3: Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Advice - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded, influenced by trade negotiations, interest - rate cut expectations, China's anti - involution policies, and large - scale infrastructure projects. The market is cautiously bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to specific policies, individual supply - demand drivers, and leading varieties [12][13]. - **Weekly Focus**: Powell's speech, ECB interest - rate decision, European and US economic data, and China's LPR are the key points to watch this week [14]. - **Variety Strategies** - **Copper**: Social inventory is decreasing, supply is expected to tighten, and demand is likely to increase. It is expected to rebound, with a recommended strategy of buying on dips [3][15]. - **Zinc**: It is showing a phased upward trend, with increasing supply and moderate demand. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [4][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is in a volatile consolidation, alumina has a wide - range fluctuation, and cast aluminum alloy is also in consolidation. It is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [5][17]. - **Tin**: Fundamentals are weak, but it is rising due to external factors. Short - term bullish thinking, with attention to the mining end and macro factors [6][17]. - **Lead**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is recovering slowly, and it is in a volatile and weak state. A bearish - on - volatility strategy is recommended [7][18]. - **Nickel**: There is a phased rebound, but the long - term supply - demand situation is bearish. Short - term bullish, medium - term bearish on rallies [9][18]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a range - bound and relatively strong state, with a recommended high - selling and low - buying strategy [9][18]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices**: Copper closed at 79,890 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; zinc at 23,015 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase; aluminum at 20,760 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease; alumina at 3,427 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; tin at 273,950 yuan/ton with a 2.01% increase; lead at 16,890 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; nickel at 124,360 yuan/ton with a 0.80% increase; stainless steel at 12,935 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; and cast aluminum alloy at 20,135 yuan/ton with a 0.10% decrease [19]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show varying net long - short positions and changes, affected by non - main - force funds or main - force position adjustments [21]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Copper Spot**: Yangtze River spot price is 79,900 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease; Wumaomao 1 average price is 79,755 yuan/ton with a 0.15% decrease [22]. - **Zinc Spot**: Yangtze River 0 zinc average price is 22,860 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase; Yangtze River 1 zinc is 22,760 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase [22]. - **Aluminum Spot**: Yangtze River average price is 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.67% decrease; Nanchu Foshan A00 aluminum ingot average price is 20,710 yuan/ton with a 0.53% decrease [22]. - **Alumina Spot**: Antai Ke national average price is 3,255 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase; hydrated bauxite in Henan is 550 yuan/ton with no change [22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][30][32]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents multiple charts for different non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, to analyze their arbitrage opportunities, including ratio changes, basis, and spread trends [56][60][62]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts on option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes for copper, zinc, and aluminum, providing references for option trading [76][78][81].

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline, hitting a low of $38.94 per ounce, marking the second consecutive day of decrease, although the overall trend remains strong [1] - The anticipated tariff agreement between the EU and the US is expected to reduce the safe-haven demand for silver, while trade negotiations between China, India, South Korea, and the US continue [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have eased, further diminishing the demand for silver [1] Group 2 - The UK government recorded its second-highest monthly borrowing since 1993 in June, driven by debt interest pressures from inflation, which may lead to increased taxes in the autumn budget, posing risks to economic growth [2] - Despite these challenges, the British pound remains favored in the market due to expectations that the Bank of England will initiate a rate cut cycle in August, with several institutions predicting a 25 basis point reduction [2] - The US dollar showed little reaction to the trade agreement with Japan, with the dollar index hovering around 97.45, close to a two-week low, as the market awaits the release of the US July PMI data [2] Group 3 - Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have gained international attention, with a brief meeting in Istanbul yielding some progress on prisoner exchanges, but significant divisions remain on key issues like ceasefire conditions [3] - The likelihood of an EU-US trade agreement before the August 1 deadline appears slim, increasing investor caution amid widespread trade tensions, which continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [3] - The average effective tariff rate in the US has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, contributing to a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) in June, raising concerns about inflation and economic growth prospects [3] Group 4 - The recent agreement between the US and Japan, along with the nearing 15% tariff agreement between the US and EU, has led to a cooling of domestic commodity sentiment, with silver prices experiencing fluctuations [4] - Despite the cooling sentiment, silver prices still show support, indicating a generally strong outlook, with specific trading ranges suggested for silver operations [4] - The market is advised to be cautious with bullish positions on silver, particularly around the $39.5 resistance level, while monitoring key support levels [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight crude oil fluctuated repeatedly. Geopolitical factors, such as the US and Israel withdrawing from negotiations with Hamas, increased geopolitical concerns, and the disruption of crude oil exports at Russian ports also boosted oil prices. However, the pessimistic outlook for trade negotiations still pressured oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices will continue to oscillate, with short - term trading in the range of 505 - 515, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the EU is negotiating trade with the US while preparing counter - tariff lists, and there are geopolitical issues in the Middle East. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decline in US API and EIA inventories, which is bullish, but the increase in Cushing area inventory is a factor to consider. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price below it, being neutral. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, also being neutral. Overall, short - term trading is in the 505 - 515 range, and long - term is on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US Middle East peace envoy recalled the negotiation team as Hamas showed a lack of willingness to reach a cease - fire in Gaza, and Israel's negotiation team also withdrew. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates and gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and will adjust strategies according to US tariff negotiation progress. The US Treasury Secretary said that US - China trade is in a "good state" and will discuss China's suspension of purchasing Russian and Iranian oil [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand. Bearish factors are OPEC+ continuous three - month production increase, tense US trade relations with other economies, and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel. The market is driven by short - term geopolitical conflicts and waiting for the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: For Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil, the settlement prices changed, with WTI and Oman showing increases, Brent a slight decrease, and SC a small increase [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with different increase amplitudes [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API and EIA inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, while the Cushing area inventory increased. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged as of July 24 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 15, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased, and the net long positions of Brent crude oil increased [3].

[Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F031445 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

韩国将确保本土企业不会处于不利地位。 韩国和美国重申将在8月1日前达成协议。 韩国产业通商资源部发表声明：韩国将竭尽全力争取贸易谈判取得最佳结果。 ...

周四（7月24日）纽约尾盘，欧元兑美元下跌0.23%、报1.1743，北京时间21:00（欧洲央行宣布按兵不 动、行长拉加德新闻发布会开始之后）刷新日低至1.1731，随后出现一波迅猛拉升行情，22:15刷新日 高至1.1789，美股盘后，随着美国总统特朗普谈及与欧盟的贸易谈判而快速下挫。 ...

印度商务部长戈亚尔：在美国贸易谈判中，印度需要拥有优于竞争对手的市场优惠准入，这对印度来说 非常重要。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：关注贸易谈判的路径。 ...