Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The previous price was oversold, and with the new cotton coming onto the market and China - US negotiations in progress, the bearish sentiment has eased [4]. - Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous bearish news has been gradually digested, and the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. The futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The national cotton output is expected to be 728000 tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/2026 season are both 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report shows that the output in the 2025/2026 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Bullish factors: a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors: ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and inventory trends [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons (+3.9%) [15]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for the 2025/2026 Season**: The output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report regarding position data.

Core Insights - The India-US bilateral trade agreement appears to be nearing completion, with most issues reportedly agreed upon, but India emphasizes that any decision will prioritize national interests over external pressures [1][3][4] - Tariff issues are central to the negotiations, with the US imposing high tariffs on Indian exports, leading to a significant drop in India's exports to the US [4][7] - India is considering some concessions, such as relaxing import restrictions on corn and soybean meal, while firmly protecting its agricultural markets to safeguard local farmers [6][10] Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, severely limiting market access for Indian products [4] - India's exports to the US fell from $6.87 billion in August to $5.43 billion in September, a decrease of $1.4 billion in just one month [4] - India is unlikely to compromise on agricultural products, as approximately 60% of its population relies on agriculture, with 85% being small farmers [6][10] Energy Procurement Issues - The procurement of Russian oil remains a contentious topic, with the US pressuring India to reduce its purchases, but India maintains that its energy security is paramount [9][12] - Despite US sanctions on Russian oil producers, India has reduced its Russian oil imports from 1.2 million barrels per day in September to 800,000 barrels per day in October, which may be seen as a gesture towards the US [12] Conclusion on Negotiation Strategy - India's approach to the negotiations is cautious, balancing the need for trade agreements with the protection of domestic interests [13] - The potential for an agreement hinges on mutual concessions, particularly regarding tariffs and agricultural imports, with both parties needing to demonstrate goodwill for a successful outcome [13]

Group 1 - The ASEAN Summit held in Kuala Lumpur from October 26 to 28 is considered one of the most significant Southeast Asian summits in recent years, with leaders from various countries including China, the US, Japan, and Brazil in attendance [1] - The US and Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam have established new trade agreements, which include reducing tariffs and regulatory barriers on US automobiles and agricultural products, and Malaysia has committed to investing $70 billion in the US over the next decade [1][2] - The US maintains an overall tariff rate of 19% to 20% on these countries but will exempt certain goods from tariffs, with specific details to be announced [2] Group 2 - The US has signed critical mineral agreements with Thailand and Malaysia to provide US companies with priority access to rare earths, and Malaysia and Cambodia have agreed to prevent third-country companies from dumping goods into the US [4] - Brazilian President Lula revealed constructive talks with Trump regarding tariff issues, as Brazil faces high tariffs from the US, and is seeking to diversify its trade structure in Asia [4] - A significant agenda item at the summit is addressing cross-border telecom fraud, particularly in regions like northern Myanmar and parts of Cambodia, where criminal groups exploit the lack of effective government control [5] Group 3 - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar emphasized the need for stronger collective action against cross-border online fraud during the summit [5] - The upcoming APEC meeting in South Korea will also be a platform for discussions, with ongoing communication between China and the US regarding a potential meeting between their leaders [5] - The positive news surrounding the summit has led to significant increases in stock indices, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 50,000 points and the KOSPI200 index also reaching historical highs [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Core Insights - The recent trade talks signal an increase in the threshold for "derailment," reducing the likelihood of future fluctuations, although comprehensive resolutions on specific trade issues may take time [1] - The U.S. side's signals are characterized by three keywords: "comprehensive," "framework," and "high-level meeting," indicating a broad range of issues and a structured approach to negotiations [1] - The framework agreement aims to clarify the "direction and sequence" of problem-solving, addressing previous ambiguities in bilateral relations [3] Group 1 - The talks indicate a constructive approach, with both sides reaching a basic consensus on their respective concerns [1] - The framework agreement resembles earlier agreements between the U.S. and Europe, lacking in detail compared to the first-phase agreement [2] - The discussions may lead to a comprehensive trade agreement similar to the 2019 first-phase agreement, which could be a prerequisite for Trump's planned visit to China early next year [4] Group 2 - The negotiations may include specific exchanges, such as China's soybean imports contingent on U.S. fentanyl tariff reductions, and the potential for further discussions on rare earth controls and software export regulations [3] - The outcome of the recent talks marks the end of a phase of friction and serves as a starting point for future negotiations [5] - The expectation is for continued monthly trade discussions following the high-level meeting at the end of the month [3]

Core Insights - Bitcoin surpassed $113,000, marking its highest level in nearly two weeks, driven by positive developments in US-China trade talks [1] - A preliminary consensus was reached on key issues such as export controls and tariffs, alleviating fears of escalating trade tensions [2] - The overall crypto market capitalization increased by 1.8% to $3.72 trillion, indicating a recovery from previous declines [4] Market Reactions - US and Asian equity futures rose, while gold prices slightly decreased, reflecting a shift towards risk assets [3] - Major cryptocurrencies like ether (ETH), BNB, and Solana (SOL) experienced gains, with ether rising 2.6% to around $4,060 [3] - XRP saw a 2.3% increase to $2.64, continuing its rally linked to ETF optimism, while Tron’s TRX was the only major token to decline, falling 2.9% [3] Future Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is anticipated to influence market trends, with a dovish tone potentially supporting further breakout in crypto prices [5] - The easing of geopolitical tensions has provided a temporary relief for traders, helping to stabilize the market after a period of volatility [4][5]

Group 1: Core Issues - The U.S. has demanded South Korea invest $350 billion to lower tariffs, with strict conditions on investment direction and profit sharing [3][5][6] - South Korea's foreign exchange reserves are approximately $400 billion, making the U.S. demand nearly impossible to meet without significant economic repercussions [6][17] - The automotive and semiconductor sectors are particularly vulnerable, with one-fifth of South Korea's exports going to the U.S., risking layoffs and industry disruption if tariffs are imposed [6][10] Group 2: South Korea's Response - President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration previously complied with U.S. demands, but current President Lee Jae-myung is taking a firmer stance against the U.S. [5][10] - Negotiations have led to some concessions from the U.S., allowing for reduced cash payments and a more favorable profit-sharing arrangement for South Korea [8][10] - Lee has publicly committed to not compromising South Korea's interests, reflecting a shift in approach compared to his predecessor [10][19] Group 3: Economic and Strategic Considerations - South Korea's strength in the global semiconductor and battery markets gives it leverage, as U.S. tech companies rely heavily on South Korean suppliers [14][16] - The country is actively seeking to diversify its markets and reduce dependence on the U.S., including expanding production in Indonesia and Vietnam [16] - Despite these efforts, South Korea's economic reliance on the U.S. remains significant, with many SMEs dependent on U.S. orders, posing risks if tariffs are enacted [17][19] Group 4: Security Concerns - South Korea's security dependence on the U.S. is a critical issue, with substantial military presence and financial obligations to the U.S. [18][21] - The potential for increased military costs if trade negotiations fail adds another layer of pressure on South Korea's decision-making [18][21] - The need for South Korea to enhance its own military and economic capabilities is emphasized to avoid being seen as a subordinate in international negotiations [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's accusations against Canada for allegedly using a "forged" video of former President Reagan to mislead the public, which he claims is a fraudulent act [2] Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump announced the suspension of trade negotiations with Canada due to dissatisfaction with an advertisement sponsored by the Ontario government, which he claims misleadingly suggests Reagan opposed tariffs [2] - In response to Canada's actions, Trump stated that the U.S. would impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods, citing "serious distortion of facts and hostile actions" from Canada [2] Group 2: Legal and Diplomatic Responses - Trump referenced a statement from the Reagan Foundation, indicating that Canada did not have authorization to use or edit Reagan's speech, and that the foundation is considering legal action [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney expressed readiness to resume and advance trade negotiations with the U.S., but noted that Canada cannot control U.S. trade policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced a 10% additional tariff on Canada in response to perceived misleading advertisements regarding U.S. former President Reagan's stance on tariffs [2][5][11]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - Trump accused Canada of "seriously distorting facts and taking hostile actions," leading to the imposition of a 10% additional tariff [5]. - The announcement was made after Trump expressed dissatisfaction with a Canadian advertisement that he claimed misrepresented Reagan's views on tariffs [7][11]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Following Trump's announcement, Canada decided to suspend its anti-tariff advertisements to facilitate the resumption of trade negotiations with the U.S. [6][8]. - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada is ready to resume trade talks when the U.S. is prepared [10][12]. Group 3: Broader Trade Strategy - Carney aims to increase Canada's trade with countries outside the U.S. by nearly $300 billion over the next decade, indicating a shift in focus towards Asia, including India and China [14]. - The Canadian government is seeking to establish new partnerships and opportunities to reduce economic dependence on the U.S. [14][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump announced a 10% additional tariff on Canada in response to perceived misleading advertising that misrepresented former President Reagan's stance on tariffs [1][3]. - Trump accused Canada of using a "forged" video of Reagan's speech to mislead the public and influence the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariff issues [1][3]. - The Canadian government, represented by Prime Minister Carney, expressed readiness to resume trade negotiations with the U.S. but stated it cannot control U.S. trade policies [3].