2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铂、钯、碳酸锂期货将 震荡偏弱 焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%. The STAR 50 Index rose by 0.12%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.27%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 286.24 billion yuan, an increase from the previous day [1][5][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked by CITIC, 6 sectors saw gains, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as electronics leading the increases. Conversely, non-ferrous metals, steel, and food and beverage sectors experienced significant declines [1][5][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 0.94%. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies also dropped by 0.32% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China conducted a collective study on forward-looking layouts and the development of future industries, with President Xi Jinping delivering an important speech emphasizing the significance of nurturing future industries for national development [9][10] - An important article by Xi Jinping titled "Walking the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Building a Financial Power" will be published in the upcoming issue of "Qiushi" magazine, outlining the principles for developing a robust financial system [13][14] - The personal income tax threshold for individual taxpayers has been raised to 1000 yuan per transaction, effective this year [17][18] - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China resulted in 12 cooperation agreements, marking a significant step in UK-China relations [19] Driving Factors - The upcoming publication of Xi Jinping's article is expected to influence market sentiment, as it outlines the strategic direction for China's financial development and emphasizes the importance of a strong financial system [8][14] - The A-share market saw 2453 stocks rise, 2896 decline, and 113 remain unchanged, indicating a volatile trading environment influenced by international market fluctuations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a strong financial nation in China as a necessary step for achieving high-quality development and modernizing the socialist state [2][4]. Financial Strength Goals - The construction of a financial powerhouse is positioned as a strategic goal, with the concept of "financial strength" being formally included in the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][9]. - Key elements of a strong financial nation include a powerful currency, a capable central bank, efficient financial institutions, an influential international financial center, robust financial regulation, and a strong talent pool [3][9]. Financial System Framework - The construction of a modern financial system is outlined through six interconnected frameworks: a scientific financial regulation system, a structured financial market system, a collaborative financial institution system, a comprehensive financial regulatory system, a diverse financial product and service system, and a secure financial infrastructure system [4][10]. - The transition from a financial giant to a financial powerhouse requires both hard and soft power, with the latter represented by a unique financial culture [4][10]. Cultural Aspects of Finance - The article discusses the importance of a financial culture that emphasizes integrity, functionality over mere profit, prudent management, innovation without deviation from reality, and compliance with laws [5][11]. - These cultural principles are rooted in traditional Chinese values and are seen as essential for enhancing the "soft power" of the financial system [5][11]. Pathway to Financial Power - The "Eight Persistences" represent the pathway and bridge to achieving the goal of a financial powerhouse, highlighting the political and people-oriented nature of financial work in China [6][12]. - The call to action emphasizes confidence and continuous exploration in the pursuit of financial strength [6][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2603 contract rising 0.06% and its open interest increasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures were at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds at home and abroad were also mixed. Due to factors like central bank policies, economic data, and potential changes in Fed policies, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.394, 102.418, 105.890, 105.920, 108.310, 108.310, 111.92, and 112.04 respectively. Their price changes were 0.000, - 0.010, 0.015, 0.010, 0.060, 0.055, - 0.250, and - 0.260, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, - 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 0.23%. The open interest of the contracts were 66252, 9944, 138897, 41141, 260856, 38227, 134801, and 43929, and the changes in open interest were 205, 293, - 325, 3584, 2252, 3821, - 1593, and 890. The trading volumes were 27498, 1747, 52879, 8129, 68999, 12230, 99361, and 13232 [2] - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.024, - 0.030, 0.000, and - 0.120, compared to the previous values of - 0.034, - 0.0350, - 0.0050, and - 0.1300 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts were 1.1521, 1.3421, 1.375, 1.4431, 1.2696, 1.381, 0.8513, and 0.4079, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 were 1.3280, 1.5800, 1.5086, 1.6401, 1.6290, 1.6140, 1.6, and 1.64 respectively. Their changes were - 4bp, 0.8bp, 7.05bp, 1.56bp, 6.8bp, 0.1bp, 14bp, and 2bp [2] - **Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.29%, 1.30%, 1.38%, 1.58%, 1.68%, 1.81%, 2.30%, and 2.29%. The changes were - 2.49bp, 0.02bp, - 0.43bp, - 0.23bp, - 0.95bp, - 0.97bp, 1bp, and 0.5bp. The yield spreads of 10 - 2, 10 - 5, 5 - 2, and 30 - 10 were 38.10bp, 29.39bp, 8.71bp, and 47.47bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of US 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, German 2Y, 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.52%, 3.79%, 4.26%, 4.87%, 2.070%, 2.920%, 1.251%, and 2.247%. The changes were - 1.0bp, - 1.0bp, 2.0bp, 2.0bp, 0.0bp, 0.0bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.5bp. The internal - external yield spreads were - 213.6bp, - 221.4bp, - 245.0bp, - 258.5bp, - 68.6bp, - 111.0bp, 13.3bp, and - 43.7bp [2] Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 352.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3] - **PMI Data**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease; the composite PMI output index was 49.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease [3] - **Policy - related News**: The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held the 24th collective study session on forward - looking layout and development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's important article on building a financial power will be published in Qiushi Journal. US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but there are obstacles to the nomination [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On January 30, most money market interest rates declined. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchases and inter - bank lending showed different trends for different tenors [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of US Treasury bonds showed mixed trends, with the 2 - year yield down 2.85bp, 3 - year down 3.35bp, 5 - year down 2.42bp, 10 - year up 0.62bp, and 30 - year up 1.75bp [3] Comments and Strategies - The central bank's net injection this week was 580.5 billion yuan. Shibor short - end varieties showed differentiation, and the money market remained stable before the Spring Festival. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and there are expectations of a unique policy combination if Kevin Warsh becomes the Fed Chair. The 2025 GDP growth target was achieved as scheduled, but the real estate market is still adjusting. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank have announced policies, and due to increased volatility in the equity and commodity markets, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [3]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% at 4079.71, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.54% at 14128.87, and the ChiNext Index up 0.65% at 3368.14 [1] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the strategic importance of advancing future industries during a collective study session led by Xi Jinping [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on deepening capital market reforms and enhancing the adaptability of regulations, including expanding the types of strategic investors for listed companies [3][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] Company Announcements and Financial Performance - SpaceX is applying to launch and operate a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites, along with building an AI data center network in orbit [3] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Technology are projecting significant net profit increases for 2025, with estimates of 89.50%-128.17% and 231%-249% year-on-year growth, respectively [5][5] - Several companies, including Huaneng Power and China Mobile, announced expected losses for 2025, with Huaneng Power projecting a net loss of 10 billion to 16.5 billion yuan [6][7] Market Trends and Investment Insights - Citic Securities suggests a shift from speculative investments to quality assets, indicating a potential recovery window for blue-chip stocks as the ETF redemption tide appears to be ending [12] - Huatai Securities notes that while the market may experience short-term fluctuations, the core drivers for the spring market rally remain intact, with recommendations to focus on high-quality sectors such as power equipment and semiconductor devices [13]

Core Viewpoint - The articles emphasize the importance of integrating financial development into the broader context of high-quality economic and social development, highlighting the need for a pragmatic approach to promote financial quality and stability [1][15]. Group 1: Financial Development Strategy - The central financial authorities advocate for a moderate easing of monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1][15]. - Financial support should be strengthened for major strategies, key areas, and weak links, focusing on enhancing the quality of financial supply for expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1][15]. - The importance of managing expectations and coordinating financial policies with fiscal and industrial policies is emphasized to amplify policy effectiveness and boost social confidence [1][15]. Group 2: High-Quality Financial Development - Xi Jinping's speech outlines the strategic vision for building a financial powerhouse, emphasizing the need for a modern financial system that aligns with China's unique circumstances [2][5][8]. - The construction of a financial powerhouse is seen as a complex system project involving six pillars: financial regulation, markets, institutions, supervision, products and services, and infrastructure [10]. - The necessity of preventing systemic financial risks is highlighted as crucial for national security and sustainable development [11][12]. Group 3: Reform and Regulation - The articles stress the need for reform to address deep-seated contradictions in financial development, advocating for a dual-pillar framework of monetary and macro-prudential policies [16]. - Strengthening regulatory frameworks and enhancing the effectiveness of financial supervision are critical to managing risks and ensuring compliance across all financial activities [14][17]. - The importance of fostering a financial culture that aligns with Chinese characteristics is emphasized, aiming to instill correct values and ethics within financial institutions and professionals [12][17].

Company and Industry Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on amendments to the regulations regarding strategic investors, allowing various institutional investors to participate as strategic investors in listed companies, with a minimum shareholding requirement of 5% [4] - As of January 31, 3,057 listed companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with 1,638 companies expecting positive results, representing 53.6% of the total; industries such as non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials are performing well [4] - The public fund issuance market had a strong start in January 2026, with 123 new funds raising a total of 120.21 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards concentration in top-performing products [5] - The telecommunications companies China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom announced that from January 1, 2026, the VAT rate for certain services will increase from 6% to 9%, which will impact their revenue and profits [9] - The electric vehicle sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with new energy heavy trucks achieving a monthly penetration rate exceeding 50%, benefiting companies like Yutong Heavy Industry and Hanma Technology [8] - The company Kunlun Wanwei is expected to report a net loss of 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion yuan for 2025, while Cambrian is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround [10][11] - Tencent's new AI application initiatives have gained significant traction, with its app quickly rising to the top of the free app rankings on the Apple Store [13]

Group 1 - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the strategic importance of advancing future industries for national development and rejuvenation during a collective study session on January 30 [1] - Xi Jinping highlighted the need for a modern financial system with a focus on a scientific and stable financial regulation system, a well-structured financial market, and diverse financial products and services [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to enhance the capital market's stability and reform, including the introduction of reforms for the ChiNext board and improving the flexibility of refinancing systems [1][2] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for January was 49.3, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced a new mechanism for power generation capacity pricing, particularly for regions with high renewable energy installations [1] - The China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom announced an increase in the value-added tax rate from 6% to 9%, which will impact their revenue and profits [1][2] Group 3 - SpaceX is applying to launch and operate a satellite constellation of up to 1 million satellites and is developing an AI data center network in orbit [1] - SpaceX's revenue for the previous year was approximately $15-16 billion, with Starlink accounting for 50% to 80% of total revenue, and the company plans to raise $50 billion in an IPO [2] - The U.S. Federal Communications Commission disclosed SpaceX's plans, indicating significant developments in the satellite and space technology sector [1][2]

中央金融委员会办公室、中央金融工作委员会在《求是》杂志发文指出，精准务实促进高质量发展。经济金融共生共荣，只有将金融发展融 入经济社会高质量发展大局中，才能实现金融自身的高质量发展。要优化宏观调控，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、 物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。要提升服务质效，顺应"十五五"时期高质量发展的战略需要、阶段特征和结构特点，切实加强对重 大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持，做好金融"五篇大文章"，优化对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业的金融供给质量，促进稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。要加强预期管理，强化金融政策与财政、产业等政策协调配合，打好"组合拳"，形成同向合力、放大政策效 能、提振社会信心。 以下为原文： 锚定建设金融强国目标 走好中国特色金融发展之路 中央金融委员会办公室 中央金融工作委员会 习近平 总 书记 在2024年1月省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题研讨班开班式上发表重要讲话，以马克思主义政治家、思想家、 战略家的深刻洞察力、敏锐判断力，从历史和现实相贯通、国际和国内相关联、理论和实际相结合的宽广视角，就推动我国金融高质量发展 的重大理论和实践问题 ...

美股方面，三大股指小幅收跌，道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.36%，报48892.47点；标普500指数跌0.43%， 报6939.03点；纳斯达克指数跌0.94%，报23461.82点。 【财经要闻】 1、据新华社，2月1日出版的第3期《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平 的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，金融强国应当基于强大的经济 基础，具有领先世界的经济实力、科技实力和综合国力，同时具备一系列关键核心金融要素。一是拥有 强大的货币，在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用，具有全球储备货币地位。二是拥有强大的中央银 行，有能力做好货币政策调控和宏观审慎管理、及时有效防范化解系统性风险。三是拥有强大的金融机 构，运营效率高，抗风险能力强，门类齐全，具有全球布局能力和国际竞争力。四是拥有强大的国际金 融中心，能够吸引全球投资者，影响国际定价体系。五是拥有强大的金融监管，金融法治健全，在国际 金融规则制定中拥有强大话语权和影响力。六是拥有强大的金融人才队伍。 【市场数据】 1月30日收盘，上证综指跌0.96%，报4117.95点；科创50指数涨0.12%，报1509.4点 ...