美国4月零售销售(除汽车)环比 0.1%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.5%。 ...

美国4月零售销售 7241.31亿美元，前值7348.7亿美元。 ...

美国4月零售销售环比增长0.1%，预估为持平，前值为1.5%。 ...

美国4月零售销售对照小组 -0.2%，预期0.3%，前值由0.40%修正为0.5%。 ...

不过该行也提醒，这一预测并非高置信度，因其主要基于季节性因子的预期差异，而非消费者支出的实 质性疲软。 过去一个月市场的剧烈波动是否影响了消费？为解答这一问题，美银经济学家研究了截至5月3日的四周 消费同比增速——这一时段涵盖了4月2日关税宣布后的大部分时期。如果股市动荡抑制了支出（或反弹 提振了支出），理论上高收入群体的消费变化会更明显。然而数据显示，三个收入分位组的消费增长基 本一致。事实上，收入前1%人群的消费增速在截至5月3日的四周内最为强劲，几乎与市场反弹同步飙 升。 关于关税前置消费的假设又如何？如果消费者预期价格飙升（密歇根大学调查显示民主党人尤其如 此），他们理应抓紧囤货。对此，美银同样通过截至5月3日的四周同比消费增速分析发现，在线电子产 品和日用百货的支出自关税宣布后加速最为显著。中高收入群体及前5%人群似乎比低收入群体和前1% 人群更积极地提前购买了电子产品。 正如美国银行经济学家团队所警告的，尽管电子产品消费出现前置现象，但4月整体支出仍将"疲软"。 根据该行计算，4月美银汇总的信用卡和借记卡数据显示，家庭总消费同比增长1.0%，但经季节性调整 后环比持平。其中，航空、服装和家居装修等 ...

Group 1 - The easing of tensions in the US-China trade war has led to a significant rebound in global risk assets, with US stock markets experiencing substantial gains [3][5][6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged approximately 1000 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices rose over 3.5% and 2.7% respectively [1][6] - Market optimism is driven by hopes for a broader agreement between the two largest economies, resulting in a decline in gold and safe-haven currencies [3][5] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between the US and China exceeded expectations, with a framework for ongoing dialogue established, which is positively viewed by the stock market [5][7] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet announced that both countries agreed to lower "reciprocal" tariffs by 115% within 90 days, reducing US tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods to 10% [7] - UBS expects that the uncertainty surrounding trade has peaked, predicting that by the end of the year, the actual tariff levels in the US will gradually decrease to around 15% [8] Group 3 - Major technology stocks saw significant increases, with Apple rising nearly 6% as it considers raising prices for its upcoming iPhone series while avoiding attributing the price hike to US tariffs [8][9] - Individual stock performances included Micron Technology up 8.57%, Amazon up 7.54%, and Tesla up 6.79%, reflecting a strong rally in the tech sector [9] - The Chinese stock index also rose over 4%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 400 points, indicating a positive market response in China as well [9]

美联储理事库格勒：零售销售显示出一些提前消费的迹象，未来消费者支出可能会出现一定程度的回 调。 ...

欧元区3月零售销售同比 1.5%，预期 1.6%，前值 2.3%。 ...

意大利3月零售销售环比 -0.5%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.1%。 ...

日本3月零售销售环比 -1.2%，预期 -0.7%，前值 0.5%。 ...