Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the egg industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises decreased slightly, the culling age decreased slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs remained basically the same, and the price of chicks continued to decline from a high level. - Due to the limited time this year when egg prices fell below feed costs, most breeding farms chose to extend the breeding period or molt the hens. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, egg supply was tight, but after May Day, with molting hens starting to lay eggs and the arrival of the rainy season in the South, there may be a situation of strong supply and weak demand. - Recently, the inventory pressure in the sales areas has increased. Egg traders mainly purchase based on rigid demand, and the sales in the production areas are slow, but the festival effect still provides short - term support. - The breeding profit has dropped significantly and is lower than the average level of the past four years. Currently, it is near the break - even point. If continuous losses occur, farmers may accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity. - The egg basis has decreased slightly this week, and the near - month futures contracts are still slightly at a discount. The current price difference between the near - term and far - term egg futures is at a medium level. From the perspective of positions, the net short position of institutional investors in the main egg futures contract shows an oscillating state. - Based on the analysis of the egg fundamental cycle, the current situation is similar to that in the first half of 2020. Before the production capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of weak near - term and strong far - term egg futures is expected to continue. It is recommended to wait and observe for reverse arbitrage opportunities [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - It includes sub - sections on spot prices, egg basis, egg price differences, and futures institutional net positions [3][6][9][12] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as laying hen inventory, culling situation, replenishment situation, and the situation of large and small eggs [14][16][19][21] Demand Analysis - Consists of sub - sections on shipping volume and sales volume, inventory, and substitutes [24][27][30] Profit Analysis - Includes breeding profit and egg - feed price ratio [33][36]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs has been weak this week. After two weeks of strength after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market needs adjustment, and the decline in the production area exceeded expectations. Although there should be some support before May Day, the market is still weak. Attention should be paid to the demand digestion after May Day [8]. - In the futures market, affected by the weak spot, it fluctuated and declined this week. The main contract 06 fell from 3080 to around 3000. Due to the hard - to - falsify expectation of the rainy season, it may enter the delivery month with a high premium. If the spot cannot continue to rise, the futures may correct. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis. Currently, the basis of 06 is not much different from previous years, and the futures pricing is relatively reasonable [8]. - For the far - month contracts 08 and 09, their pricing is at a moderately low level in history, corresponding to the expectation of increasing egg production in the future. Attention should be paid to whether the spot can stabilize after May Day. If it continues to be weak, combined with the expectation of price decline during the rainy season, the near - month contracts are not optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of eggs in futures contracts 2505, 2506, and 2507 all rose, with increases of 1.54%, 0.37%, and 0.55% respectively. The trading volume of contract 2506 was 144,043, and the trading volume of contract 2507 was 26,337. The spot price of eggs nationwide declined, with the average price in the main production area at 3.33 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales area at 3.53 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The spot price of eggs has been weak this week. The production area's decline exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment is low. Although there should be support before May Day, the market is still weak. In the futures market, affected by the weak spot, it fluctuated and declined this week. The main contract 06 fell. If the spot cannot rise, the futures may correct. Attention should be paid to the basis change. The far - month contracts 08 and 09 are priced at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the spot trend after May Day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of March, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.318 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in March was about 46.33 million, showing an increase compared with February and continuing to grow compared with the same period in 2024, ranking at a medium level in the past seven years [9]. - The number of culled chickens has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with the absolute value slightly higher than in the previous two years. However, the culling volume has decreased in the past two weeks. As of April 24, the average age of culled chickens was 536 days, the same as last week and 2 days earlier than last month [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the average price of eggs in the main production area, the seasonal trend of egg contract 05, the basis of egg contract 05, and the price difference between egg contracts 05 and 06 [12][15][18].