5月23日，第十二届富国论坛在苏州市顺利举办。本届论坛以"重估·重构·重燃——AI驱动下的中国资产 价值跃迁"为主题，汇聚了知名学者，以及来自券商的首席经济学家、首席分析师和富国基金的资深基 金经理，共同探讨全球秩序变局、AI产业趋势，以及资产配置、行业投资机会。 本届论坛采用"线下+线上"联动模式，吸引了近1000位投资者与资管行业专业人士现场参会，线上直播 实时观看人次突破1400万。通过深度洞察与实战策略的碰撞，论坛为资管行业呈现一场高水准的思想盛 宴。 与会首席一致将科技与红利列为年度投资主线。刘晨明建议关注低波红利与创新药出海；张启尧看好 AI下游应用及服务消费的"双阶升级"；李超认为红利资产提供"防御"底线，AI、智能驾驶等新质生产力 代表长期"进攻"方向。 尽管面临复杂多变的外部环境，与会首席普遍认为中国资产在全球再平衡中凸显配置价值。政策呵护、 制造业韧性及技术突破构成核心支撑，黄金、军工、AI应用成为穿越波动的"压舱石"。正如主持人富国 基金首席经济学家袁宜所言："在全球不确定性加剧的背景下，中国经济和中国资产的确定性反而相对 更强。" 第二场圆桌论坛以"中流击水，基金投资势与道"为主题，国 ...

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The 12th Fortune Forum focuses on "Re-evaluating, Reconstructing, and Reigniting - The Leap in Asset Value Driven by AI" and gathers top experts to discuss global order changes, AI industry trends, asset allocation directions, and investment opportunities [1] - The forum features a roundtable discussion on the dual impact of geopolitical tensions and the AI technology revolution, clarifying the core logic for investors amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1][2] - Experts emphasize that despite external disturbances, Chinese assets exhibit significant allocation value due to policy support, manufacturing resilience, and technological breakthroughs [3] Group 2: Investment Themes - Assets are categorized into three types: strong cyclical (real estate chain), stable (gold, high dividends), and tech emerging (AI, innovative pharmaceuticals), with gold seen as a hedge against weakening dollar credit [2] - The focus on AI applications and service consumption is highlighted as a dual upgrade opportunity, with a particular interest in the downstream applications of AI [3] - The importance of internationalization for external demand enterprises and the need for domestic enterprises to focus on rigid demand and innovation upgrades are discussed [4] Group 3: Sector Insights - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is emphasized, with companies needing to shift from "manufacturing overseas" to "branding overseas" to enhance value [4] - The AI hardware capital expenditure is still in a deep water zone, indicating that China has broader space for AI applications in the long term [5] - Innovative pharmaceutical companies are seen as capable of withstanding decoupling risks through talent and technological barriers, with global authorization partnerships being key to market expansion [6]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the quarterly review results, removing Tencent from the Hang Seng Tech Index and adding BYD, indicating a shift towards the automotive sector within the index [1] - The current proportion of the automotive industry in the Hang Seng Tech Index is 10%, which will increase to over 20% with the inclusion of BYD and other automotive-related companies [1][3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to benefit from the growing trend of electric vehicles, as evidenced by the accelerated capital inflow into the automotive sector [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Tech Index has a higher exposure to the automotive sector at 16% and also includes a significant allocation to pharmaceuticals, which enhances its performance compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index [3][5] - Major tech companies in Hong Kong, such as Tencent and Alibaba, reported substantial profit growth, with Alibaba's net profit increasing by 273%, reflecting the high growth potential in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [5] - The median market capitalization of index constituents is HKD 43.2 billion, with over 50% being small and mid-cap tech leaders, indicating potential for higher earnings elasticity during the AI application phase [7] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Tech Index has shown a higher stage increase compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a year-to-date increase of 23.22% versus 18.20% for the latter [8] - The Hong Kong Tech sector is characterized by low valuations, high sensitivity, and significant growth potential, making it an attractive investment opportunity [8] - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF is available for T+0 trading, providing a diversified investment option in internet technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has revoked the "AI Diffusion Rule" established during the Biden administration and initiated new regulations to strengthen AI chip export controls, indicating a continuation of the global competition for AI dominance [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The previous "AI Diffusion Rule" categorized countries into three tiers for AI chip procurement, with the highest tier allowing 18 U.S. allies to purchase freely under supervision, while countries like China and Russia were banned from accessing advanced chips [1]. - Following the cancellation of the rule, stocks related to Nvidia surged, with companies like Jingsheng Electronics and Huajin Technology seeing significant gains [3]. - The new measures, however, restrict the global application of Huawei's Ascend chips, presenting short-term challenges but potentially accelerating the domestic chip industry's self-sufficiency in the long run [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Investment Trends - A surge in investment in computing power infrastructure is noted, with major Chinese firms like Alibaba and ByteDance planning capital expenditures reaching hundreds of billions by 2025 [1][6]. - The global competition for AI infrastructure is intensifying, with major cloud providers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta projected to spend over $230 billion in 2024 [6][7]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving significant capital expenditures, with a projected increase in global cloud infrastructure spending to $3.213 trillion in 2024, up 20% from 2023 [7]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Market Shifts - The introduction of DeepSeek's open-source strategy is reshaping the industry by significantly reducing model deployment costs, leading to an increase in demand for domestic AI chips [5][8]. - The shift from reliance on imported hardware to a model of "algorithm-computing power collaborative innovation" is redefining China's AI industry landscape [8]. - As domestic chip manufacturers like Cambrian and Haiguang Information innovate and optimize their architectures, they are positioned to benefit from the accelerated demand for self-sufficient computing power solutions [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is demonstrating unique vitality and resilience, positioning itself as a key player in the global economic landscape, particularly through the asset management industry which is seen as a core engine for capital allocation and value discovery [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The bond market is viewed as favorable due to a supportive macroeconomic environment and a clear direction of monetary policy easing, with low risk of significant adjustments [2][4] - The stock market is experiencing positive policy signals aimed at stabilizing the market, with central entities increasing their holdings in A-shares, which is expected to boost investor confidence [2] - Current stock market valuations are considered to be in a reasonable range, presenting structural opportunities particularly in sectors like technology innovation, military, machinery, and undervalued financials and cyclical stocks [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - In an environment of increasing uncertainty, diversification across asset classes such as stocks and bonds is recommended to mitigate risks [3] - Maintaining flexible positions and emphasizing liquidity management is crucial, avoiding extreme risk exposure [3] - The "fixed income plus" strategy is suggested for achieving stable returns while considering the volatility of products and individual risk tolerance [6] Group 3: Changes in Investment Framework - The investment research framework has shifted from a macro and mid-level focus to a greater emphasis on micro-level research, recognizing the significant impact of microeconomic factors on macroeconomic trends [7] - Increased market volatility necessitates a focus on market sentiment, with a proactive approach to understanding and anticipating changes in investor behavior [7] - The approach to credit risk has evolved, with a focus on high-quality municipal bonds while maintaining strict credit standards, and a shift towards recognizing the trading value of credit bonds [8] Group 4: Balancing Risk and Return - Investment decisions require rationality, with an emphasis on recognizing and managing both foreseeable and unforeseeable risks [9] - The essence of investment is framed as creating returns while controlling drawdowns, ensuring long-term performance sustainability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing a structural transformation driven by AI technology, with domestic manufacturers like Dongxin Co. striving for self-research and development to meet local demand and enhance competitiveness [2][3]. Industry Overview - Major NAND manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Western Digital, and Kioxia, have implemented production cuts since Q4 2024 to address oversupply, leading to a tightening supply that is expected to drive up storage chip prices in Q1 2025 [1]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach approximately $626.87 billion in 2024, with the storage chip market expected to grow to about $167.05 billion, reflecting an 81% year-on-year increase [3]. Company Performance - Dongxin Co. reported a revenue of 641 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.80%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 167 million yuan, narrowing by 45.42% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 142 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.90%, although it still faced a net loss of approximately 59.24 million yuan due to rising R&D and financial expenses [3]. Future Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on integrated technology innovation in the "storage, computing, and connectivity" domain, aiming to expand its application range in various sectors such as network communication, surveillance, consumer electronics, industrial control, and automotive electronics [4]. - The demand for high-reliability storage chips is expected to grow due to the acceleration of AI technology and the rise of edge computing devices, providing more market opportunities for the company [4]. - In 2024, the company established a subsidiary for Wi-Fi 7 wireless communication chip development, targeting high bandwidth and low latency scenarios to meet the needs of smart terminal applications [4]. - The company made a strategic investment of 200 million yuan in Shanghai Lishuan to enter the high-performance GPU market, with its first-generation graphics processing chip G100 already in the testing phase [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a slight increase of 1.96% last week, ranking 19th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, with a trading volume share of 10.96% [2][4] - Major cloud service providers in the US, such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, have reported better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong demand in the cloud services market [6][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of cloud infrastructure as a foundation for all applications, suggesting that the domestic application ecosystem is competitive with international counterparts [6][32] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector saw a slight increase of 1.96% last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3342.00 points, up 1.92% [4][13] - The sector's trading volume accounted for 10.96% of the total market, with notable activity in military information technology and Hongmeng themes [2][4] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: 1. Major cloud service providers 2. Domestic computing power supply chains, including Cambrian and Ascend 3. IDC and computing power leasing suppliers [6][32] Notable Developments - Neuralink's brain-computer interface device received "breakthrough device" certification from the FDA, showcasing its potential in aiding patients with severe speech impairments [18][25] - Huawei's Hongmeng PC was officially launched, marking a significant step in the domestic PC market with a fully self-developed operating system [26][31] Financial Insights - Recent earnings reports from major internet companies like Tencent and Alibaba are expected to draw market attention, particularly regarding their capital expenditure (Capex) [6][36] - Alibaba's cloud business showed a significant revenue increase, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud services, while Tencent's Capex has also seen substantial year-on-year growth [36][39]

文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2021年2月，美国德克萨斯州一场百年一遇的暴风雪，让全球汽车产业陷入瘫痪。当地三家关 键芯片工厂因停电停工，直接导致远在德国的大众汽车生产线被迫按下暂停键，日本丰田减产 40%。 点击按钮▲ 预约直播 这场"蝴蝶效应"的背后，是高度精密却也极度脆弱的全球供应链网络——一颗芯片的缺席，足 以让价值千亿的产业停摆。 而今天，供应链的震荡已超越偶然的天灾。地缘政治博弈、能源危机、AI技术革命、ESG浪 潮……多重变量交织下，供应链从"效率优先"的精密齿轮，演变为"安全与韧性"为核心的战略 棋盘。 麦肯锡数据显示，全球92%的企业正在重构供应链布局，"中国+1""近岸外包""数字孪生"成为 高频关键词。 当"全球化"与"逆全球化"两股力量激烈碰撞，供应链的生死局，实则是国家竞争力与企业生存 权的终极较量。 5月7日19:00将迎来 吴晓波频道十一周年纪念活动系列直播的第二场， "企业出海·供应链生死 局" 专场。 吴老师邀请了 上海交大质量发展研究院客座研究员林雪萍 ，以及 联想集团全球供应链转型 官、联晟智达CEO徐赫 来直播间做客。 林雪萍作为全球产业观察者，20多年专 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation industry is experiencing a historic recovery, with passenger transport volume reaching 730 million in the past year, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and international passenger volume increasing by 130% [1] - The transformation towards a smart civil aviation sector is being driven by the dual forces of AI technology revolution and domestic upgrades, emphasizing the importance of database technology [1][3] AI and Domestic Upgrade Challenges - The traditional centralized databases are becoming a bottleneck for AI implementation due to rigid architecture and insufficient scalability, hindering real-time analysis and high concurrency processing [2] - The civil aviation sector has a clear timeline for domestic system upgrades, with a target to complete the operational system's domestic upgrade by June 2024 and achieve comprehensive domestic transformation by 2027 [2] - Current core systems still heavily rely on traditional databases like Oracle and MySQL, posing data security risks and dependency issues [2] Integrated Database for Smart Civil Aviation - The "root self-research" database is essential for avoiding risks associated with foreign open-source technologies, ensuring 100% self-research as a foundational upgrade [3] - The database should allow for smooth migration from existing systems, be easy to manage, and offer low costs, with OceanBase providing high performance and compatibility [3] - Future-oriented databases must support multi-architecture integration to ensure business continuity in critical operations [4] High Availability and Disaster Recovery - Integrated databases can achieve high availability and disaster recovery through various deployment models, ensuring minimal downtime and robust operational continuity [4] - OceanBase has achieved RPO=0 and RTO<8s, providing a strong safety net for complex civil aviation scenarios [4][6] Multi-Workload and Multi-Modal Integration - The ability to handle multiple workloads (TP+AP) is crucial for real-time adjustments during peak booking periods, ensuring rapid response times [5] - The database must support multi-modal data processing to effectively manage semi-structured and unstructured data, enhancing operational efficiency [5] Industry Adoption and Success Stories - China Aviation Information Technology Co. has initiated a pilot upgrade of its core systems based on OceanBase, aiming for full domestic integration by 2024 [6] - China United Airlines has successfully implemented OceanBase, enabling innovative services like the first blind box ticketing system, demonstrating the database's reliability and performance [6] - Changlong Airlines has reported a 70% reduction in storage costs and zero downtime since adopting OceanBase, showcasing its effectiveness in real-time data analysis [6][7] Conclusion - The civil aviation industry is leveraging integrated databases as a pivotal tool for digital transformation, aiming to build a secure, agile, and intelligent data foundation to support the development of smart civil aviation [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of Shenzhen Baiwei Storage Technology Co., Ltd. in 2024, with a revenue of 6.695 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.46%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses to profits [1][2] Group 2 - The growth in 2024 is attributed to the company's strategic focus on seizing industry opportunities, expanding its customer base both domestically and internationally, and achieving substantial increases in product sales [2] - In the mobile sector, the company achieved a historic breakthrough with first-tier mobile clients, while in the PC sector, it made significant inroads into the global pre-installed market with leading PC clients [2] - The company successfully passed AVAP testing with China Mobile and mutual certification tests with over 20 CPU platforms and OEM manufacturers in the server sector [2] - In emerging AI sectors outside of mobile and PC, the company generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of approximately 294%, by collaborating closely with top clients in smart wearables and AI devices [2] - The company has also entered the supply chains of several leading domestic automotive companies, covering areas such as intelligent cockpits and autonomous driving [2] - The ongoing growth in data will drive the expansion of the storage industry, while the increase in domestic production rates will accelerate the development of the domestic storage industry chain [3] - The AI technology revolution is expected to significantly boost demand for high-end storage devices, presenting new development opportunities for integrated semiconductor storage manufacturers like Baiwei Storage [3]