12月22日，贵金属集体大涨，多个品种创新高。 中信建投研报称，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修，黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦 表现强势。一面是充裕的流动性，一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。另外，基础原材料对经济发展的重要性越来越被相关国家重 视，甚至启用关税的手段获得这类产品，加剧了市场的区域性缺口，进一步推动价格的上行。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名标 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4383.035 | 44.675 | 1.03% | 67.03% | | 伦敦银现 | 68.471 | 1.422 | 2.12% | 137.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 4414.5d | 27.2 | 0.62% | 67.26% | | COMEX白银 | 68.700d | 1.211 | 1.79% | 134.55% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 992.2018 | 10.1132 | 1.03% ...

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Global major asset performance this week shows bonds outperforming stocks, REITs, and commodities, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index rising by 0.005% while the MSCI Global Stock Index fell by 0.05% [2] - The MSCI Global Stock Index decline was primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific markets, with developed markets performing better than emerging markets [3] - In the commodities sector, energy prices weakened across the board, while industrial metals and precious metals saw price increases [4] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The European stock markets outperformed the US and Japan, with the STOXX 600 Index rising by 1.60% and the FTSE 100 Index increasing by 2.57% [3] - Emerging markets faced declines, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index down by 1.55%, and specific markets like Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.10% [3] - Financial, materials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and utilities sectors outperformed the global stock index, while information technology, consumer staples, telecommunications, industrials, and energy sectors lagged [3] Group 3: Commodity Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.06% to $60.47 per barrel, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw price increases of 3.18% and 2.67%, respectively [4] - Gold prices rose by 0.91% to $4,338.88 per ounce, with silver prices increasing by 8.39% to $67.16 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [4][11] - The US bond market saw a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by 3.7 basis points to 4.148% [4] Group 4: Labor Market and Economic Data - The US labor market data indicated a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs in October, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing expectations [6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, higher than the expected 4.5%, marking a four-year high [6] - The November CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflationary pressures [6] Group 5: Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.20% to 98.599, while the Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.23% against the dollar [5] - The Chinese Yuan appreciated by 0.1246% against the dollar, with the latest midpoint rate at 7.0550 [5] Group 6: REITs and Real Estate Insights - The global REITs index fell by 0.70%, with performance varying across markets, particularly in the UK, Japan, and Singapore [13] - US REITs reported better-than-expected revenue and profit growth for Q3, particularly in the office sector [13] - The current environment of declining interest rates is favorable for both stock and bond attributes of REITs [13]

来源：中原网 12月22日，贵金属集体大涨，多个品种创新高。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4383.035 | 44.675 | 1.03% | 67.03% | | 伦敦银现 | 68.471 | 1.422 | 2.12% | 137.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 4414.5d | 27.2 | 0.62% | 67.26% | | COMEX日银 | 68.700d | 1.211 | 1.79% | 134.55% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 992.2018 | 10.1132 | 1.03% | 61.11% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 15500.0020 | 321.9027 | 2.12% | 128.64% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2027.90 | 59.20 | 3.01% | 124.33% | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1747.91 | 35.91 | 2.10% | 92.40% | | N ...

现货铂金持续走高，现涨超3%，报2002.3美元/盎司，为自2008年以来首次升破2000美元/盎司，今年累 涨超120%。 专家普遍认为，全球央行持续购金已成为打破传统供需平衡的关键变量，而美联储货币政策转向宽松预 计将进一步利好黄金。长期来看，美元购买力变化、央行储备行为及地缘政治风险仍是影响金价的核心 因素。 据世界黄金协会12日报告显示，11月全球实物黄金ETF流入达52亿美元，已连续六个月实现流入。截至 11月底，资产管理总规模增至5300亿美元，环比增长5.4%；总持仓上升1%至3932吨，均创新高，今年 全球黄金ETF流入总量有望创下历史最佳年度表现。 12月22日，贵金属集体大涨，多个品种创新高。 | | 不需給馬 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4383.035 | 44.675 | 1.03% | 67.03% | | 伦敦银现 | 68.471 | 1.422 | 2.12% | 137.03% | | COMEX黄金 | 4414.5d | 27.2 | 0.6 ...

一、日度新闻 ·以总理访美前伊朗军方最新表态：密切关注相关事态发展金十数据12月21日讯，当地时间12月21日，针对以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡即将访美以及以色列对伊朗的威胁，伊朗武装部队副总参谋长萨达尔·瓦希迪在接受媒体采访时表示，以色 列政权正面临巨大问题，这一点已非常明显。以色列在对伊朗的战争中并未实现任何目标，伊朗正在密切关注相关事态 发展。萨达尔·瓦希迪称，以色列试图通过媒体，对伊朗发动"心理战"来掩盖其弱点，从而营造一种截然不同的现实图 景，以色列试图通过一系列威胁举措来掩盖其在今年的12日战争中遭受的惨败。他表示，以色列的言论和宣传不会给其 带来任何好处。"如今，以色列政权孤立无援，只是徒劳地试图自救。" ·以总理访美前伊朗军方最新表态：密切关注相关事态发展金十数据12月21日讯，当地时间12月21日，针对以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡即将访美以及以色列对伊朗的威胁，伊朗武装部队副总参谋长萨达尔·瓦希迪在接受媒体采访时表示，以色 列政权正面临巨大问题，这一点已非常明显。以色列在对伊朗的战争中并未实现任何目标，伊朗正在密切关注相关事态 发展。萨达尔·瓦希迪称，以色列试图通过媒体，对伊朗发动"心理战"来掩盖其弱点 ...

（文 / 观察者网 周盛明 编辑 / 高莘） 导读："只要是在中国本地生产的产品，从经济性和质量稳定性角度来看，对我们都极具吸引力。" 日前，宝马新任采购董事尼古拉·马丁（Nicolai Martin）接受德国《商报》采访时表示，宝马必须在成 本带来的机会与地缘政治风险之间进行精准权衡。 尼古拉·马丁进入集团管理层还不到半年，围绕安世半导体（Nexperia）的危机便已爆发。对此，他并不 感到意外。 "中国供应商长期以来对我们都非常重要，我们已经从中国采购了大量产品，而且不仅用于中国市场， 而是供应全球。" 尼古拉·马丁举例，电池电芯是其中的典型代表，此外在内饰和外饰领域，中国同样是关键的供应市 场。 "只要是在中国本地生产的产品，从经济性和质量稳定性角度来看，对我们都极具吸引力。"他表示。 尼古拉·马丁认为，与中国供应商之间的关系变得更加紧密并不意味着"新的依赖风险"。恰恰相反，他 认为和中国供应商的合作对于宝马的竞争力来说至关重要。 "这并不是封闭市场的问题。如果只是一味追求对中国更具'韧性'，结果反而会让我们在与中国制造商 的竞争中进一步丧失竞争力。作为一家全球性企业，我们无法彻底消除所有风险，也没有理 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a sustained high level of market activity and potential for price increases [11][30][55]. Core Insights - Copper prices have increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton on the LME, while domestic prices have slightly decreased. Supply constraints and weak demand are expected to lead to a slight reduction in inventory levels [12]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton on the LME, with domestic production remaining stable despite high inventory levels. The market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, but there are signs of recovery [13]. - Gold prices increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The SPDR gold holdings have also increased, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [14]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions. Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [31]. - Antimony prices have decreased by 2.37%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [32]. - Tin prices have increased by 1.86%, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [33]. - Lithium prices have risen by 3.66% to 96,700 CNY per ton, with production levels stable and demand from the energy sector remaining strong [56]. - Cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with a slight increase in some products, but overall market activity is subdued due to seasonal factors [59]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.75% to $11,870.5 per ton, while domestic prices decreased slightly. Supply constraints and weak demand are expected to lead to a slight reduction in inventory levels [12]. - The smelting sector is experiencing a decrease in operational rates, with a forecasted decline in production due to year-end inventory control [12]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 2.80% to $2,955.50 per ton, with domestic production remaining stable despite high inventory levels. The market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, but there are signs of recovery [13]. - The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has decreased, indicating a continuation of weak demand [13]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.79% to $4,368.7 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The SPDR gold holdings have also increased, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [14]. Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price movements due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions. Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [31]. Antimony - Antimony prices have decreased by 2.37%, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to expected recovery in exports and stable demand [32]. Tin - Tin prices have increased by 1.86%, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from sectors like semiconductors and photovoltaics [33]. Lithium - Lithium prices have risen by 3.66% to 96,700 CNY per ton, with production levels stable and demand from the energy sector remaining strong [56]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with a slight increase in some products, but overall market activity is subdued due to seasonal factors [59].

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 美委紧张升级，地缘驱动回归 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 油价在地缘局势不确定性和基本面持续疲软的情况下区间波动。美委内瑞拉紧张局势加剧的背景下，油价止 跌反弹。特朗普已下令 "全面彻底封锁" 进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，这加剧了要求总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台 的压力。委内瑞拉在11月份出口了约60万桶/日的石油。鉴于最新的事态发展，这些交易量很可能会下降。标 普数据显示，在美国升级驱逐马杜罗之后，前往委内瑞拉的油轮数量有所下降。地缘局势升级将给短期油价 带来上行驱动，后续关注美委局势进展。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 原油波动率和VIX source： wind,南华研究,彭博 美国原油ETF隐 ...

米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个 基点，而大多数同僚倾向于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%， 报67.04美元/盎司。 早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达 3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它 有助于证明美联储'鸽'派轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降 息。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们 将陷入困境。"米兰说。 2026年金价趋势性上涨动力仍在 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 昨日，据媒体报道，特朗普正在推进美联储 ...

策调整以及地缘局势变化可能导致原油供给增量不及预期，并将减缓原油市场 过剩预期以及油价下行幅度，同时若宏观环境超预期修复，将给油价带来底部 支撑，叠加油价已经连续四年下跌，2026 年的原油表现可能会比 2025 年相对 更有韧性。 原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联 ...