Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need to effectively release domestic demand potential in the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to achieve economic growth targets [3][5]. Economic Growth and Policy - China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of the year, with final consumption contributing approximately 52% to economic growth, highlighting domestic demand as the main driver [3]. - The focus for the second half of the year will be on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policies [3][4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, alongside implementing structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery [3][4]. Consumer Demand and Spending - There will be a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, including policies like "trade-in" for consumer goods, with significant funding already allocated for this purpose [5]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, which has strong employment absorption capacity and growth potential, by providing financial support and promoting new consumption models [5]. Fiscal Policy and Social Welfare - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards improving people's livelihoods, with significant growth in budget allocations for education, social security, and health care [6]. - Recent policies include raising basic pensions and implementing free preschool education to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [6]. Urban Development and Infrastructure - The article emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a means to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on human-centered urbanization and infrastructure improvements [6]. - The government plans to support urban renewal projects through increased central budget investments and long-term special bonds [6]. Role of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces are expected to play a crucial role in driving growth by accelerating the issuance and utilization of special bonds and leading in the development of new productive forces [7]. - The emphasis is on these provinces to take the lead in deep reforms and high-level opening up to stimulate effective investment [7].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The central government emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic policies for the second half of the year [2][5] - Key areas of focus include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, as well as implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][5] - The government aims to effectively release domestic demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption, while also ensuring the stability of foreign trade and investment [2][5] Group 2: Structural Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - Monetary policy will increasingly focus on small and micro enterprises, with specific measures such as re-loans, targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and expansion of inclusive small and micro loan support tools [5][6] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve funding efficiency, which is crucial for supporting local governments and ensuring basic livelihood protections [5][6] Group 3: Consumption and Service Sector Growth - The government aims to release domestic demand potential and cultivate new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on improving consumer confidence and expanding consumption demand [8][9] - Recent data shows a decline in consumer spending growth, indicating the need for further measures to stimulate consumption, particularly in the service sector [8][9] Group 4: Market Competition and Regulation - The meeting highlights the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus [11][13] - The government is committed to promoting a unified national market and addressing issues such as low-price competition and local protectionism to foster a fair business environment [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to effectively release domestic demand potential, leading to a focus on long-term consumption potential by consumer-listed companies [1] Group 1: Consumer Companies' Strategies - A number of consumer companies in the Shanghai market are planning to leverage policy support and the trend of consumption recovery to create diverse and integrated service consumption experiences [1] - Zhejiang Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism Co., Ltd. aims to drive service consumption growth through a combination of cultural IP, tourism, and technology, projecting a net profit of 90 million to 97 million yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.44% to 63.22% [3] - Huangshan Tourism Development Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary and participate in bidding for state-owned land use rights to enhance its tourism product offerings, focusing on new market exploration and project development [3] Group 2: Innovation in Consumption Scenarios - Dongpeng Beverage Group reported a revenue of 10.737 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 36.37%, and a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [4] - The company has implemented various innovative measures to expand new consumption scenarios, including sponsoring major sports events to diversify its market reach [4] - Shanghai Bailian Group's collaboration with Bilibili for a themed event significantly boosted foot traffic and sales, with a 31% increase in sales during the event period [5]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a stable and progressive approach to economic work in the second half of the year, ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the people's livelihood [7][9] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, as consumer demand continues to be released and market supply improves [10][12] - Experts noted that service consumption is becoming a major direction for consumption upgrades, and the government aims to cultivate new growth points in this area to enhance people's quality of life and expand overall consumption [14][16] - The development of service consumption is crucial for meeting livelihood needs, upgrading the consumption industry, and creating new consumption scenarios, which will facilitate both domestic and international economic circulation [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the release of the August "Golden Stock" list by various brokerages, highlighting stocks with high investment potential, including Oriental Fortune, which has received multiple recommendations despite recent price corrections [1][2] - As of July 31, 109 A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have been included in the August "Golden Stock" list, with Oriental Fortune being the most frequently recommended stock by three brokerages [1] - The stock market has shown a trend of rising volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations while maintaining relatively high trading volumes [2] Group 2 - The performance of the July "Golden Stocks" was reviewed, with the Wind index showing a cumulative increase of 15.07% for the best-performing stocks, indicating strong market interest [2] - Looking ahead to August, the market is expected to experience a mixed trend influenced by favorable policy expectations, moderate economic recovery, and the verification of semi-annual reports [2] - Specific investment themes recommended by Huazheng Securities include high-growth technology sectors, areas with strong support or exceeding performance expectations, and consumer services and real estate sectors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year, aiming for a successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The meeting emphasizes the need to maintain a stable and progressive work approach, ensuring policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus includes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a continuous strengthening of the policy's orientation towards people's livelihoods [7] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, indicating that while expanding commodity consumption, new growth points in service consumption should be cultivated [10][12] - Experts note that service consumption is increasingly significant as living standards rise, and it is a primary direction for consumption upgrading, which aligns with the public's aspirations for a better life [14][16] - Service consumption plays a crucial role in meeting livelihood needs, promoting consumption industry upgrades, and creating new consumption scenarios, which is beneficial for achieving a virtuous cycle of internal and external circulation [18]

Core Insights - China's super-large market presents unlimited opportunities and immense potential, driven by the growing demand for a better life among its people, which fuels the upgrade of consumption quality [3][6] - The Ministry of Commerce's report on consumption during the 14th Five-Year Plan highlights four key themes: expansion, quality improvement, renewal, and openness [6][7] - The average annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5.5% over the past four years, with expectations to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [6] - The average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure was 9.6%, with its share of total consumption expenditure increasing by 3.5 percentage points to 46.1% [6] - New consumption patterns are emerging, with a shift from "whether" to "how good" in consumer demand, indicating a clear trend towards quality consumption upgrades [6][7] Consumption as Economic Driver - Consumption is identified as the "main engine" and "stabilizer" of economic growth, as well as a "barometer" of public well-being [7] - Various policies have been implemented to promote consumption and enhance people's livelihoods, indicating a strong governmental push towards consumption quality upgrades [7][8] - The per capita disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure of residents increased from 32,000 yuan and 21,000 yuan to 41,000 yuan and 28,000 yuan, respectively, over the past four years [7] Future Consumption Trends - The transition towards service consumption will be a major development direction during the 15th Five-Year Plan, driven by technological advancements and a shift in consumer preferences [8] - Improving the consumption environment is essential for enhancing consumer willingness, which involves infrastructure development, market regulation, and consumer rights protection [8] - The evolving consumption landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for businesses, emphasizing the need to adapt to new consumer demands and enhance service offerings [8]

央视网消息：7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。专家表示，这次会议对于"十四五"圆满收 官，开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署，指明了重要方向。 国家发展改革委国家信息中心研究员魏琪嘉表示，在稳企业、稳就业、对低收入群体的保障方面，要加大政策力度，进一步体现政策民生温 度，为整个发展创造一个良好的环境。 提振消费 大力发展服务消费 会议指出做好下半年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权表示，上半年，我国经济增长实现良好开局、平稳增长，这都得益于实施了更加积极有为的宏观政策。为了下 半年保持经济持续稳定增长，需要在政策方面保持持续性和稳定性。如果下半年会发生一些变化，跟上半年有不一样的地方，这种情况下就必 须要增加政策灵活性，要使得政策更加精准发力。 从宏观经济政策的着力点上来看，会议强调，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，宏观经济政策的民生导向不断强化。 2025年以来，居民消费需求持续释放，市场供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese economy's performance in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth of 5.3%, and outlines the macroeconomic policies for the second half aimed at sustaining growth and addressing challenges [1][4]. Economic Growth and Policy Measures - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for continuous and timely macroeconomic policy adjustments, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that new significant measures may be introduced to stabilize growth, such as interest rate cuts, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, and enhancing special bond issuance [2][6]. Internal Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing internal demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption, particularly in services, which saw a 5.3% year-on-year growth in retail sales [12][13]. - The government plans to support consumption through special bonds and policies aimed at enhancing consumer environments and promoting new consumption models [12][13]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for maintaining a stable foreign trade and foreign investment environment, with measures to support export enterprises facing challenges due to external pressures [14][16]. - The article notes that China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with exports growing by 7.2% [17]. Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, prohibiting new hidden debts while promoting the development needed to mitigate these risks [9][10]. - The focus on high-quality urban renewal aims to prevent excessive supply and further debt risks in the real estate sector [8][9]. Capital Market Development - The meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, which is crucial for maintaining economic confidence and supporting new productive forces [10]. - Key reforms will focus on financial openness, investment reforms, and increasing long-term capital market participation [10].