1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

智通财经获悉，美国总统特朗普日前表示，若潜在提名人选凯文·沃什曾表态希望加息，他将不会获得 美联储主席的提名。 "如果他进来就说'我想加息'，那他绝对得不到这份工作，不可能。"特朗普在周三接受采访时如此表 态。 即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔此前指责该项调查是对央行货币政策独立决策能力的"隐晦攻 击"。特朗普政府官员虽否认此意图，但总统本人近月来持续向鲍威尔施加降息压力。 值得注意的是，曾以"通胀鹰派"形象著称的前美联储理事沃什，近期已多次公开表态支持降息。此番提 名博弈不仅折射出白宫对货币政策的强势干预，也使美联储百年来的独立性传统面临严峻考验。有分析 人士指出，沃什若获提名，其亟需施展备受推崇的斡旋能力，在政治压力与央行专业判断之间寻求平 衡。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特周三在国会听证会上表示，总统有权对美联储的决策过程施加影响， 尽管如此，贝森特同时强调，他相信美联储应保持货币政策独立性，这种独立性建立在美国公众信任之 上，并应接受问责。 特朗普称美联储降息"几乎没有悬念"，理由是当前利率"处于过高水平"，并称美国"如今已重归富裕国 家行列"。 当被问及沃什是否理解其希望降低基准利率的意图时，特朗普回 ...

即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔此前指责该项调查是对央行货币政策独立决策能力的"隐晦攻 击"。特朗普政府官员虽否认此意图，但总统本人近月来持续向鲍威尔施加降息压力。 值得注意的是，曾以"通胀鹰派"形象著称的前美联储理事沃什，近期已多次公开表态支持降息。此番提 名博弈不仅折射出白宫对货币政策的强势干预，也使美联储百年来的独立性传统面临严峻考验。有分析 人士指出，沃什若获提名，其亟需施展备受推崇的斡旋能力，在政治压力与央行专业判断之间寻求平 衡。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特周三在国会听证会上表示，总统有权对美联储的决策过程施加影响， 贝森特当天出席美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会。密苏里州民主党众议员Emanuel Cleaver询问他，是 否会建议总统"在言辞和政治层面干预"美联储的决策。贝森特回应称："这是他的权利……也是在座每 个人的权利。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普日前表示，若潜在提名人选凯文·沃什曾表态希望加息，他将不会 获得美联储主席的提名。 "如果他进来就说'我想加息'，那他绝对得不到这份工作，不可能。"特朗普在周三接受采访时如此表 态。 特朗普称美联储降息"几乎没有悬念"，理由是当前利率" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Cook stated that monetary policy should not be used to manage government debt [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the separation of monetary policy from fiscal responsibilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a significant reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to address mid-term liquidity pressures ahead of the Spring Festival, signaling a proactive approach to maintain liquidity stability in the banking system [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On February 4, the PBOC executed an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan [1]. - The total mid-term liquidity maturing in February amounts to 1.5 trillion yuan, with 700 billion yuan from 3-month reverse repos and 500 billion yuan from 6-month reverse repos [1]. - The operation is seen as a forward-looking hedge against potential mid-term liquidity pressures, especially with the upcoming maturity of 700 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos [1][3]. Group 2: Market Stability and Policy Tools - The 3-month reverse repo is designed to stabilize the bank's liability structure and the operation of money market interest rates, particularly during the high-demand period around the Spring Festival [2]. - The PBOC's open market operations are crucial for monetary policy adjustment and liquidity management, with a total net injection of 6 trillion yuan in 2025, including 3.8 trillion yuan from reverse repos [2]. - The PBOC is enhancing its monetary policy toolkit, allowing for better coordination of various tools to manage liquidity and improve transparency in policy operations [2]. Group 3: Liquidity Demand and Future Outlook - February is expected to see concentrated bank credit issuance, with increased liquidity demand due to cash withdrawal factors before the Spring Festival [3]. - The PBOC's strategy of increasing the 3-month reverse repo is aimed at preemptively addressing mid-term funding gaps, reducing the need for frequent adjustments to short-term tools [3]. - The urgency for further reductions in reserve requirements or interest rates is seen to be decreasing, with a preference for using MLF and reverse repos in a coordinated manner to stabilize mid-term liquidity supply [3].

美联储库克：货币政策无法解决消费者情绪低迷的问题。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国总统特朗普周三表示，他认为美联储下调美国基准利率这件事 "没什么可怀疑的"。 特朗普在接受美国媒体采访时称，他相信自己提名的下任美联储主席人选凯文・沃什，能够理解他希望 下调利率的立场。当被问及沃什是否清楚他希望其下调利率时，特朗普回应道："我认为他是清楚的， 而且我觉得即便没有我的要求，他本身也打算这么做。"他还补充道："我的意思是，如果他过来跟我 说'我想要加息'，他根本就得不到这个职位，绝对不可能。" 新主席提名进程受阻 联邦基金利率期货定价显示，市场预期今年美联储首次降息或发生在7月，而新美联储主席首次亮相的6 月概率仅为56%。 上任挑战不小 特朗普上一次提名美联储主席时，曾偕鲍威尔现身白宫玫瑰园共同出席活动。但这一次，特朗普通过社 交媒体宣布提名凯文・沃什接替鲍威尔，而自那以后，沃什便再未公开露面。 近30年来，发表公开表态早已是美联储主席提名流程中的常规环节。因此，沃什这次的举动让外界有些 惊讶与失望。市场人士表示，沃什过去数日的沉默，或许正是美联储 "减少发声"的首个信号，而这也 是沃什希望改变美联储运作模式的方式之一。自2011年卸任美联储理事以来，沃什对美联储的一贯批评 点之一，便是美 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan after 3.775 trillion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - From February 2 to February 4, the cumulative net withdrawal of 7-day reverse repos by the PBOC amounted to 674.5 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity environment ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - Analysts expect that as the Spring Festival approaches, the PBOC may shift to net liquidity injection through reverse repos and potentially utilize 14-day reverse repos to mitigate liquidity fluctuations [1] Group 2 - In January, the PBOC reported a net liquidity injection of 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and a net injection of 100 billion yuan from government bond transactions, marking a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The PBOC's approach to government bond transactions will be flexible, considering various factors to maintain ample liquidity and support the smooth issuance of government bonds [2] - The expectation for net bond purchases to gradually increase in February, with a projected net injection of around 100 billion yuan, reflects a cautious outlook on monetary policy [2] Group 3 - The large-scale liquidity injection by the PBOC in January reduces the urgency for a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the Spring Festival, indicating a shift to an observation period for monetary policy [3] - The continuation of MLF operations and the resumption of 3-month reverse repos in February are seen as alternatives to an RRR cut, further decreasing the likelihood of such measures in the short term [3] - Analysts predict that the window for potential interest rate cuts or RRR reductions may open in the second quarter of the year, particularly in light of government bond issuance pressures [3]

Global Economic Landscape - The global economic growth rate is projected to be around 3.0% in 2026, with the US stabilizing at approximately 2%, while the EU and Japan are expected to grow at 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [2][36] - Emerging economies like China, India, and the UAE are maintaining mid-to-high-speed growth, becoming significant engines of global economic development [2][43] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are becoming mainstream, with developed and emerging economies maintaining high fiscal deficit rates of around 5.0% and 6.0% respectively, leading to rising government debt levels [2][36] - The sustainability of government debt is increasingly being challenged, particularly in the US and Japan [2][36] Supply Chain Restructuring - The trend of localization and regionalization is reshaping global supply chains, with the US controlling high-end segments, China becoming an indispensable "central node," and ASEAN and Latin America attracting investments due to their geographical advantages [2][36] Commodity Prices - Commodity price trends are diverging, with gold prices expected to rise above $6,000 per ounce driven by geopolitical risks and Fed rate cut expectations, while international crude oil prices may further decline to around $57 per barrel [2][36] Technological and ESG Developments - The AI sector continues to innovate, with multi-agent systems and humanoid robots gaining attention, although investment bubble risks exist [2][36] - ESG development is progressing with significant disparities, as Europe leads, China advances steadily, and the US lags behind, moving towards sustainable development [2][36] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are identified as the largest risk in 2026, with the US executing Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing tensions in regions like Latin America and the Arctic [7][15] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as a war of attrition, while the Middle East faces heightened risks due to the spillover effects of the Israel-Palestine conflict [15][20] Central Bank Policies - There are significant differences in global central bank monetary policies, with the Fed expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, potentially cutting rates 2-3 times in 2026 [24][27] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain a "middle strategy," keeping rates around 2% to balance inflation and growth [28][30] - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising rates to around 1%, facing challenges from policy contradictions and currency pressures [34][36]

Group 1 - Recent increases in deposit rates by some small and medium-sized banks are characterized as "New Year high-interest deposit promotions," but this trend is not sustainable in the long term, and the overall downward trend in rates remains unchanged [1] - Specific banks, such as Hunan Xinhang Rural Commercial Bank, have raised their deposit rates, with 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year rates set at 1.30%, 1.40%, and 1.75% respectively for deposits of 30,000 yuan and above, indicating an increase of approximately 10 to 15 basis points [2] - Shaanxi Shannan Rural Commercial Bank has also announced rate increases, with rates for various terms rising by 14 to 15 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of rate adjustments among small banks [3] Group 2 - The current deposit rate trend is described as being in a phase of differentiation, with some banks lowering rates despite others increasing them, indicating a complex market response [4] - A local bank reported a decrease in rates for large deposits, with 1-year and 2-year rates dropping by 15 and 10 basis points respectively, suggesting that the overall market may be moving towards lower rates [4] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to exert downward pressure on deposit rates in the future, as banks face challenges in managing their funding costs [4]