1月27日，中国人民银行北京市分行、国家外汇管理局北京市分局举行2026年第一季度新闻发布会，介 绍2025年北京市金融统计数据及多项政策落实情况，并答记者问。 总体看，2025年北京金融体系运行平稳，社会融资规模创历史新高，融资成本持续下降，金融"五篇大 文章"贷款余额达6.8万亿元，实现了总量、成本与结构的的"一升一降一优化"，为首都经济高质量发展 提供有力支持。 社会融资规模增量创新高，直接融资占比大幅提升 其中，企（事）业单位贷款余额同比增长5.8%，增速比上年末高0.4个百分点，全年新增5058.2亿元， 同比多增626.2亿元；住户贷款余额同比增长4.0%，增速比上年末高0.3个百分点。 从信贷结构看，刘前进介绍，人民银行北京市分行有效落实各类结构性货币政策工具，加大对科技创 新、重点优势产业的支持，实现对金融"五篇大文章"各领域的全覆盖。2025年末，科学研究和技术服务 业贷款余额同比增速为29.8%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业贷款增长28.2%，租赁和商务服务业 贷款增长14.2%。 截至2025年11月末，北京金融"五篇大文章"贷款去重后余额6.8万亿元，同比增长7.9%，金融供给侧结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

Group 1: Money Market Overview - In 2025, the total transaction volume in the money market reached 179.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, with an average daily transaction of 7.25 trillion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The central bank implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools to inject liquidity into the market, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 64,315 billion yuan throughout the year [3] - The average daily balance in the money market increased by 3% year-on-year to 12.2 trillion yuan, while the daily net lending balance of large commercial banks decreased by 12%, and that of money market funds and policy banks increased by 9% and 15.9%, respectively [5] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the bond issuance volume reached 54.69 trillion yuan, with 26,000 bonds issued, marking a 14% increase year-on-year, and net financing increased by 31.8% to 20.33 trillion yuan [6] - The average daily transaction in the cash bond market was 15.14 billion yuan, with a total of 907.5 million transactions, reflecting a 2.9% increase year-on-year [7] - The yield curve for government bonds steepened, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the overall credit spreads narrowed [8] Group 3: Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve steepened, with significant increases in long-term rates; the average daily transaction volume in the RMB interest rate swap market increased by 18.5% year-on-year, with a nominal principal total of 44.3 trillion yuan [9] - The daily average transaction volume for standard bond forwards and interest rate options also saw year-on-year increases, indicating a growing interest in these financial instruments [9]

中国网1月27日讯（记者 白璐）26日，中国金融40人论坛（CF40）举办宏观政策季度报告（2025年四季 度）发布会，主题聚焦重建扩大内需的动力机制。发布会上，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副 所长张斌表示，2025年中国宏观经济处在复苏的早期阶段，但复苏的基础尚不牢固，内生增长的动力尚 未得到有效支撑，需要通过更积极的货币政策来实现经济内生增长动力的改善。 展望未来，张斌认为通过财政政策扩大内需的空间收窄，未来应该更加倚重货币政策。他表示，首先要 充分相信货币政策的重要作用，努力实现通胀目标，同时要充分利用总量政策工具，降低政策利率。 就中国的情况而言，过去逆周期调节主要以财政政策为重，通过财政政策启动公共投资项目，带动总需 求回升，取得了不错的效果。但张斌认为，未来这种做法需要调整。当一个经济体处于工业化高峰阶段 时，经济快速增长，生产率快速提升，城市化快速推进，在这一阶段通过财政政策进行逆周期的公共投 资和支出，既可以稳定总需求，也有利于城市扩张与基础设施的发展。而发展到现今阶段，债务水平和 赤字率有所提升，通过财政政策短期花大钱就会遇到更多困难。"过去，财政的大头是城市扩张，能够 在短期内形成很 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) remains subdued following the release of December CPI data, with the inflation rate rising to 3.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to tighten monetary policy due to inflation rates exceeding the target of 2-3%, supported by recent PMI and employment data [2] - The AUD/USD currency pair showed a slight decline after a previous increase of over 1%, trading around 0.6990, indicating a bullish bias within an ascending channel [3] Group 2 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a drop of over 1% in the previous trading session, reflecting a prevailing "sell the US" sentiment, with DXY nearing its lowest level since February 2022 [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates between 3.50%-3.75% after a series of rate cuts, with attention on the subsequent press conference for future policy guidance [4] - Australia's employment change in December rebounded significantly to 65.2K, surpassing the revised figure of 28.7K in November, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.1%, below market consensus [4]

Group 1 - The South Korean Composite Stock Price Index opened higher at 5171.85 points, up 1.71% following a significant rise the previous day [1] - LG Energy Solution surged over 7%, while major companies like Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix also saw gains [2] - SK Hynix met two-thirds of Nvidia's HBM4 demand, and Samsung and SK Hynix doubled the prices of low-power DRAM supplied to Apple in Q1, with increases of over 80% and approximately 100% respectively [2] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index fell below 53,000 points, declining by 0.74%, raising concerns about corporate profitability due to the yen's rebound [3] - Major automotive and pharmaceutical companies, including Toyota, Mazda, and Sumitomo Pharma, experienced declines of over 3% [3] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated a consensus among members to consider further interest rate hikes if the economic outlook aligns with expectations, while maintaining a loose monetary policy environment [3]

Market Overview - The South Korean Composite Stock Price Index opened higher, reporting 5171.85 points, an increase of 1.71% from the previous close of 5084.85 points [2][3] - The trading volume reached 68.79 million shares, with a market capitalization of 961.35 trillion won for Samsung Electronics and 593.32 trillion won for SK Hynix [3][4] Key Stock Performances - LG Energy Solutions surged over 7.47%, while Hyundai Motor and Samsung Electronics also saw gains of 2.56% and 1.82% respectively [4] - SK Hynix met two-thirds of NVIDIA's HBM4 demand, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector [4] Pricing Trends - Samsung and SK Hynix have doubled the prices of low-power DRAM supplied to Apple compared to the previous quarter, with increases exceeding 80% and approximately 100% respectively [4] - This price hike reflects a shift in Apple's procurement strategy due to supply constraints, potentially impacting future negotiations [4] Trade Relations and Economic Impact - Former President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on South Korean imports due to unmet agreements, which could weaken the competitiveness of South Korean exporters in the U.S. market [5][6] - The potential tariffs may particularly affect the automotive sector, raising concerns about the ability of South Korean chip manufacturers to receive favorable treatment under U.S. semiconductor tariff frameworks [6] Japanese Market Update - The Nikkei 225 index fell below 53,000 points, declining by 0.74%, with significant drops in automotive and pharmaceutical stocks, including Toyota and Mazda, both down over 3% [7][8] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated a consensus among members to continue a loose monetary policy, even if interest rates are raised in the future [8]

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2026-1-28 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铝 【行情资讯】 美元指数下挫，国际金价续创新高，油价上涨，铝价震荡上行，昨日伦铝收盘涨 0.53%至 3212 美元 /吨，沪铝主力合约收至 24350 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 1.5 至 71.7 万手，期货仓单 微降至 14.1 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存环比小幅增加，铝棒库存环比略增，昨日铝棒加工费继续抬 升，成交一般 ...

新加坡央行预计将连续第三次维持政策不变，但经济学家认为，随着通胀出现加速迹象，央行存在转向 鹰派的空间。 一项彭博调查显示，在20位经济学家中，有19位预测新加坡金管局将于周四维持政策不变。美国银行是 唯一一家预测本周将收紧政策的银行，而大华银行则认为不能排除采取"先发制人"措施的可能性。 新加坡央行预计将连续第三次维持政策不变，但经济学家认为，随着通胀出现加速迹象，央行存在转向 鹰派的空间。 一项彭博调查显示，在20位经济学家中，有19位预测新加坡金管局将于周四维持政策不变。美国银行是 唯一一家预测本周将收紧政策的银行，而大华银行则认为不能排除采取"先发制人"措施的可能性。 在13名受访者中，有9人预计声明将呈现鹰派倾向，有4人预计基调不会改变。 新加坡金管局每年进行四次政策评估，自2025年4月上次宽松政策以支持经济增长以来，一直维持政策 不变。与大多数通过利率调控的央行不同，新加坡力求通过将本币贸易加权升值幅度控制在目标区间 内，来维持中期物价稳定。 在13名受访者中，有9人预计声明将呈现鹰派倾向，有4人预计基调不会改变。 新加坡金管局每年进行四次政策评估，自2025年4月上次宽松政策以支持经济增长以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a GDP growth target set between "4.5% to 5%" is likely to be realized, which has contributed to the decline in bond yields, as this figure is lower than the previous market expectation of "around 5%" [2][3] Group 1: Impact of GDP Growth Target on Bond Yields - A lower GDP growth target is perceived by some investors to correspond with lower interest rates, but this view is debatable as it conflates the growth target with potential economic growth [3] - The natural interest rate, which aligns with maximum economic output and price stability, should match the macro-level interest rates in the long term [3] - The downward adjustment of the annual GDP growth target is not necessarily beneficial for the bond market and may have a neutral to slightly negative impact [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The fundamental goal of financial macro-control is to stabilize economic operations, with economic performance being the core factor influencing monetary policy [4] - When the demand for economic growth is strong, monetary authorities typically lower policy rates and increase liquidity, which is favorable for long-term interest rates [4] - Conversely, a lower economic growth target reduces the necessity for aggressive monetary policy actions, negatively impacting bond market valuations [4] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a low volatility state until the end of February, with limited space for yield fluctuations, likely stabilizing around 1.8% to 1.9% for the 10-year government bond yield [4] - A significant downward shift in the 10-year government bond yield is anticipated to occur after expectations for a reduction in the 7D OMO rate materialize, but the extent of this shift is expected to be limited [5][6] - The current yield spread between the 10-year bond yield and the 7D OMO rate is only 42 basis points, indicating that substantial compression of this spread is challenging [6]