澳洲联储会议纪要：委员会一致认为随着时间推移，进一步降息是合理的，重点在于宽松措施的时机和 幅度。 ...

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for July 2025, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, consistent with the levels set after a reduction in June 2025 [1] - Market expectations indicated a high probability of the LPR remaining stable due to unchanged policy rates and recovering economic data reducing the urgency for rate cuts [2] - The pricing mechanism for LPR remains stable, as the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate and reverse repurchase operation rate have not been adjusted, limiting the downward space for LPR [2] Group 2 - The economic policy is currently in an observation phase following the June LPR reduction, with the GDP growth rate for the first half of the year at 5.3%, leading to a decreased necessity for further rate cuts [3] - Commercial banks are experiencing pressure on net interest margins, which are at historical lows of 1.54%, limiting the motivation to compress interest spreads further [4] - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is constraining domestic rate cuts, especially with the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates [5] Group 3 - Mortgage rates remain low, with the average first-home loan rate at 3.90% and second-home loan rate at 4.81%, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6] - The reduction in LPR has eased the repayment pressure for borrowers, with a typical monthly payment decrease of 54.32 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [7] - Current corporate loan rates are around 3.2%, indicating manageable financing costs for businesses [8] Group 4 - Short-term adjustments to the LPR are limited, with expectations of stability if economic data continues to improve in Q3 2025; however, a reserve requirement ratio cut is more likely than a rate cut [8] - There remains potential for a medium to long-term reduction in LPR if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts or if domestic demand weakens [8] - Regulatory measures may shift towards reducing non-interest costs and enhancing fiscal support to stimulate the economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented power struggle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, centered around the implications of interest rate cuts on U.S. debt and the potential threat to the dollar's dominance [1][10]. Group 1: Economic Implications - U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a 1% decrease in interest rates potentially saving $360 billion annually in interest payments [1]. - Trump aims for a 3% reduction in interest rates, which could lead to annual savings of up to $1 trillion [1]. - Powell warns that significant rate cuts to manage debt could lead to a repeat of the bank failures seen in 2023, indicating a severe risk to financial stability [1][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The climax of the confrontation occurred in July when news of Trump allegedly drafting a letter to dismiss Powell caused significant market turmoil, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.33% and the dollar falling 120 points [3]. - Following Trump's unexpected statement that it was "unlikely" he would fire Powell, markets experienced a V-shaped recovery, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of financial markets to political developments [3]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The power struggle has also affected the Federal Reserve internally, with dovish members like Waller advocating for a rate cut due to perceived risks in the job market, while hawkish members like Williams warn against such actions [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data rebounded to 2.7%, complicating the decision-making process regarding interest rates [7]. Group 4: Leadership Changes - Trump is reportedly pursuing a "leadership change" at the Fed, with potential candidates for the new chair including economic advisor Kevin Hassett, current board member Chris Waller, former board member Kevin Warsh, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [8]. - If a new chair is appointed, Powell's influence over policy decisions could be significantly diminished, leading to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable economic environment and potential for future rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Current LPR Status - The LPR remains unchanged due to stable policy interest rates and a strong economic performance in Q2, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [1] - The current corporate loan rate averages around 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates average 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that there is still room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to increase in Q3 or Q4, which may lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [2]

相关链接 美联储官员公开撕裂立场，市场波动或成博弈筹码，黄金多仓已溃败？谁会是最大的赢家？点击查看详 细解读！ CPI撕裂联储共识，降息困局何解？ ...

智通财经7月21日电，美国财长贝森特表示，如果通胀数据低，就应该降息。降息将释放房地产市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that interest rate cuts will drive a recovery in the real estate market [1] Group 1 - Interest rate reductions are expected to stimulate demand in the housing sector, leading to increased home sales and construction activity [1] - The real estate market has been under pressure due to high borrowing costs, and easing rates could alleviate these challenges [1] - A recovery in the real estate market is crucial for overall economic growth, as it impacts various sectors including construction, finance, and consumer spending [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered [1] - Lowering interest rates is expected to stimulate the housing market [1] - The development of artificial intelligence is leading to a significant increase in productivity [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -下半年降息不确定性增加，需关注7月政治局会议增量信号 [5][36] -若降息落地或相对后置，三季度末或四季度概率高，幅度或延续上半年10BP；若无降息落地，流动性无需过多担忧，债市短端或受冲击，中长期呈震荡格局 [5][36][40] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Possible Scenarios and Boundaries of Interest Rate Cuts - **Monetary Expansion May Not Boost Prices**: "Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices" has become an important consideration for monetary policy. The relationship between prices and money is affected by multiple factors. Overseas, quantitative easing may not solve "low inflation." In China, the current supply - demand imbalance means that monetary expansion may suppress price recovery, so the use of aggregate monetary policy will be more cautious [2][9][12] - **Smoothing the Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism is Also Key**: Besides interest rate cuts, smoothing the interest rate transmission mechanism is crucial for reducing real - economy financing costs. Attention will be paid to financial institutions' pricing ability and enterprises' non - interest costs, especially considering the low net interest margin of commercial banks [3][21] - **Dynamic Balance of Monetary Policy**: The 5.3% GDP growth in H1 2025 reduces the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short term. In supporting expansionary fiscal policy, the central bank has various tools, and interest rate cuts may not be the top option. The central bank's support will be "moderately loose" and maintain a dynamic balance [4][27][29] 3.2 If There is No Interest Rate Cut in the Second Half of the Year - **Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: If an interest rate cut occurs, it may be postponed to the end of Q3 or Q4, with a likely 10BP reduction [5][36] - **No Interest Rate Cut Scenario**: The supportive monetary policy stance remains. Liquidity is not a major concern. In the bond market, short - term bonds may be impacted if market expectations are disappointed. In the long - term, there will be an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to factors causing bond market fluctuations [5][40]

特朗普急切寻求大幅降息，不顾潜在经济后果。上周五，他再次抨击鲍威尔及美联储官员，指责高利率 政策扼杀房地产市场，尤其影响年轻人购房，并称鲍威尔是"最糟糕的任命之一"。此前，特朗普多针对 鲍威尔个人，但此次他将批评扩大至整个美联储理事会，认为其未能阻止鲍威尔的"伤害性"政策，同样 难辞其咎。他还以"太晚"绰号讽刺鲍威尔，强调其政策对国家的负面影响。 摘要今日周一（7月21日)欧盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于767.30元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报777.40 元/克，上涨0.78%最高触及777.70元/克，最低下探774.01元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周一（7月21日)欧盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于767.30元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报777.40元/ 克，上涨0.78%最高触及777.70元/克，最低下探774.01元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 值得注意的是，尽管特朗普对鲍威尔不满，但美联储内部仍有两名其任期内的提名者——鲍曼和沃勒， 倾向于在7月底的会议上降息。然而，除他们之外，其他成员在9月会议前并未显露出放松货币政策的迹 象。鉴于FO ...