Group 1: Report Information - Reported variety: Shanghai Lead [1] - Writing time: April 16, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Views - In the macro - aspect, the change in Trump's underlying demands for tariffs may be the reason for his fluctuating attitude, and there is an objective probability that China and the US will return to the negotiation table [3] - In the supply - demand aspect, on the supply side, due to new production capacity in 2025, the supply of lead concentrates is expected to increase by 1.5%, but low processing fees and a shortage of scrap batteries affect the supply volume; on the demand side, the replacement policy boosts the demand for electric bicycles and improves data center storage, but the penetration of lithium batteries continuously squeezes market share, and overall demand is still in the off - season and mainly for rigid needs [3] - In the technical aspect, from the hourly line, the market sentiment has declined, leading to continuous drops in futures prices; from the daily line, the futures price has fallen after breaking through a new resistance level; in the short term, the price may maintain a range - bound operation [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on key sectors such as **real estate**, **consumption**, and **foreign trade**. Key Points and Arguments Economic Performance - The overall economic fundamentals in China have not significantly changed compared to last year, with manufacturing PMI showing a recovery trend since Q4 of the previous year, but not exceeding last year's levels [1][2] - Real estate performance has shown resilience, particularly in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, with transaction growth noted in 15 cities [1][2] - The number of listings in the real estate market has rebounded significantly, although second to fifth-tier cities have shown a temporary rebound followed by a decline [2] Consumption Trends - Consumption during the Spring Festival has highlighted structural strengths, particularly in tourism and entertainment, with notable increases in travel revenue and box office sales [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver of consumption since its implementation in September last year, leading to a notable increase in sales for related products [4][5] - The overall consumption growth is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with projections indicating a potential increase in retail sales growth by 1.3% to 2.7% this year [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales area since June last year, and a corresponding reduction in price declines observed since November [7][8] - The performance of second-hand homes is outpacing new homes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8] - The financial health of real estate companies remains a concern, with many showing a contraction in cash flow and overall financial stability [9][10] Foreign Trade and External Factors - The impact of foreign trade has been more optimistic than previously anticipated, with expectations of extended "export rush" effects due to tariff policies [11][12] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on GDP is relatively minor, with estimates suggesting only a 0.16% impact from the latest tariff increases [12][14] - The depreciation of the RMB may serve as a buffer against tariff impacts, with a controlled depreciation expected to mitigate some of the adverse effects [14][15] Price Trends and Inflation - Price levels are expected to remain low, with potential for recovery in service prices, particularly in tourism and household services [17][19] - The current capacity utilization rates are low, which historically correlates with negative PPI growth, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate production [18][19] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy framework is characterized by a clear focus on high-quality development, with proactive measures anticipated to support consumption and address capacity issues [20][21] - Fiscal policy is expected to see an increase in deficit rates and spending, with projections indicating a rise in the deficit to between 5.6 trillion to 6.4 trillion yuan [23][24] - The government is likely to enhance transfer payments to local governments to alleviate fiscal pressures and support basic public services [27] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the Chinese economy remains cautious but with some optimistic indicators, particularly in consumption and real estate stabilization. The effectiveness of policy measures in addressing structural issues will be critical for sustained economic growth [20][21][39]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the consumer sector, particularly focusing on the food and beverage industry, including alcoholic beverages like baijiu, as well as the broader implications of government policies on consumption and real estate. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Sector Recovery**: There is a noted rebound in the consumer sector, particularly in hospitality and travel, driven by strong policy support and improving market sentiment [2][3][4]. 2. **Baijiu Market Dynamics**: The baijiu market is experiencing a recovery, with expectations for valuation increases. Current estimates suggest that leading brands like Moutai could reach price-to-earnings ratios of 25-30 times if economic conditions improve [6][7]. 3. **Non-Baijiu Beverage Performance**: Other beverage categories, such as beer and soft drinks, are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters, with specific brands identified as having strong growth potential [8][10]. 4. **Consumer Confidence and Spending**: The overall consumer confidence is improving, influenced by government policies aimed at boosting consumption, including birth incentives and consumption vouchers [16][17]. 5. **Real Estate Market Outlook**: The real estate sector is believed to have reached a bottom, with increasing transaction volumes in second-hand housing markets, indicating a potential recovery [18][26]. 6. **AI and Technology Integration**: The integration of AI in various sectors, including retail and B2B e-commerce, is highlighted as a significant growth driver, with companies leveraging AI tools to enhance sales and operational efficiency [14][15][24]. 7. **Policy Impact on Consumer Goods**: The government's focus on policies such as "old-for-new" replacement schemes is expected to stimulate demand in sectors like home appliances and two-wheeled vehicles [25][26]. 8. **Agricultural Sector Insights**: The agricultural sector is projected to benefit from rising demand for agricultural products, with specific attention on corn and soybean prices, which have been increasing [32][33]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Consumer Trends**: There is a shift in consumer preferences towards products that enhance emotional well-being, such as luxury goods and experiences, which could shape future market dynamics [15][16]. 2. **Emerging Brands and Market Opportunities**: New brands in the pet care and children's products sectors are gaining traction, indicating a diversification in consumer spending patterns [33][34]. 3. **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: Specific companies within the food and beverage sector, as well as the agricultural sector, are recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning [10][32][34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future opportunities.

行 家用电器 2025 年 04 月 13 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头+内需 基本面改善机会——25W15 周观点 投资要点： 对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头+内需基本面改善机会 告 美国宣布对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头。当地时间 4 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对不采取报复性行动的国家暂缓 90 天实施"对等 关税"，仅征收 10%关税，同时对华关税提升至 125%。本次对等关税 暂缓好于此前悲观预期，家电、纺服等可选消费龙头海外产能布局完 善，可通过转口贸易缓解关税压力，建议关注全球化布局龙头。 3 月黑电、清洁电器数据靓丽。根据奥维云网，3 月彩电线上销额、 销量、均价同比+25%、+3%、+21%，线下销额、销量、均价同比+27%、 +19%、+5%，3 月扫地机线上销额、销量、均价同比+48%、+46%、 +1%，3 月洗地机线上销额、销量、均价同比+55%、+53%、+1%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅-4.7%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-3.1%/-5.2%/-9.8%/-6.6%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [2][13] Core Views - JD's core retail business is expected to show strong growth, with Q1 2025 revenue forecasted to increase by 11.3% year-on-year to RMB 289.4 billion, and adjusted net profit projected at RMB 9.88 billion, corresponding to a net profit margin of 3.4% [6][7] - The expansion of the trade-in policy is anticipated to drive double-digit growth in electrical appliances, with JD Retail's revenue expected to grow by 11.7% year-on-year to RMB 253.4 billion [8][9] - JD is actively investing in new business areas such as takeout services and apparel, aiming to enhance user engagement and profitability [9][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084,662 million - 2024: RMB 1,158,819 million - 2025E: RMB 1,247,536 million - 2026E: RMB 1,310,164 million - 2027E: RMB 1,357,644 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts: - 2023: RMB 35,200 million - 2024: RMB 47,827 million - 2025E: RMB 51,603 million - 2026E: RMB 55,274 million - 2027E: RMB 57,970 million - The report anticipates a stable operating margin for JD Retail in Q1 2025, with long-term profitability expected to improve as the supply chain system enhances [5][16][12]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, a narrowing decline compared to the previous month's 0.7%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from the previous month's 0.1%[2] - Food prices saw a year-on-year increase of -1.4%, improving from -3.3% in the previous month[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in March, compared to a decline of 2.2% in the previous month[2] - The number of industries experiencing a PPI decline increased to 21 out of 32 in March, up from 17 in the previous month[6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, worsening from the previous month's 0.1%[2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The current recovery momentum for domestic prices is weak, primarily driven by the "old-for-new" policy effects in specific sectors[3] - The trade conflict with the U.S. is expected to exacerbate deflationary pressures on industrial products, impacting corporate profits and consumer confidence[9] - Policy reserves are sufficient, and further macroeconomic adjustments are anticipated to counter external shocks[10]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47.6081 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.64% [2] - The operating revenue for 2024 was 5.528 billion yuan, an increase of 3.46% compared to the previous year [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 655 million yuan, up 37.63% year-on-year [4] - The weighted average return on net assets was 1.18%, and the net assets attributable to shareholders at the end of the period were 4.071 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.19% from the previous year [5] Industry Context - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 grew by 3.5% year-on-year, with convenience stores, specialty stores, and supermarkets seeing increases of 4.7%, 4.2%, and 2.7% respectively [3] - In contrast, department stores and brand specialty stores experienced declines in retail sales of 2.4% and 0.4% respectively [3] - The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.5%, surpassing the overall growth rate of retail sales by 3 percentage points [3] Future Growth Drivers - The company plans to focus on high-quality development by enhancing its core business, including introducing flagship stores and products, and leveraging consumption policies such as "trade-in" programs [2] - Emphasis will be placed on innovative marketing strategies that integrate popular IPs and cross-industry collaborations [2] - The company aims to reduce costs and improve efficiency through various operational enhancements [2] Government Initiatives - The government has launched the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" in 2025 to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand [4] - This initiative is expected to enhance consumer confidence and unleash consumption potential, while new consumption models and retail formats continue to emerge [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company Aucma emphasizes the importance of preserving food freshness in busy lifestyles through innovative refrigeration technology, promoting its products as essential for maintaining the quality of food over time [1][7]. Group 1: Product Features - Aucma's refrigerators offer three temperature settings and separate compartments for dry and wet items, ensuring that each type of food retains its original flavor and quality [3]. - The large capacity of Aucma's refrigerators allows for the storage of a week's worth of groceries, including fresh fruits, vegetables, meats, and seafood, facilitating a more relaxed lifestyle without frequent shopping [5]. Group 2: Promotion and Subsidy Programs - Aucma is actively promoting its "old for new" program, providing subsidies of 20% for purchasing refrigerators with energy efficiency ratings of level one or higher, and 15% for level two or higher, with a maximum subsidy of 2000 yuan per product [9]. - The "Select and Renew Purchase" campaign offers consumers multiple benefits, including government subsidies, additional company subsidies, and promotional gifts with the purchase of specific refrigerator models, along with a comprehensive service package [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, highlighting the potential for growth and investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing significant growth, with double-digit increases in both domestic and international sales for major categories such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [6][41][43]. - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: the undervaluation and stable growth of white goods, the potential for export growth driven by large customer orders, and the rising demand for core components in the white goods supply chain [6]. Summary by Sections Data Observation - In February 2025, the air conditioning industry produced 16.785 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%, with domestic sales up 21.3% and exports up 50.8% [34]. - The refrigerator sector saw production of 7.225 million units, a 47.8% increase year-on-year, with both domestic and export sales rising by 16.5% [41]. - The washing machine industry produced 6.51 million units, a 14.7% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 20.9% and exports up 8.0% [43]. Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the white goods sector benefits from favorable real estate policies and has attributes of low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth, making it an attractive investment [6]. - The "trade-in" policy is expected to catalyze demand, with production schedules for domestic sales projected to increase significantly in the coming months [6]. - Recommended companies include Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree for their strong market positions and growth potential [6]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the home appliance index down 3.5% while the CSI 300 index fell 1.4% [8][9]. - The announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" plan by the Trump administration could impact trade dynamics, with various countries facing significant tariff increases [14][68]. - The "two new" policies are showing positive effects, with a notable increase in consumer spending on home appliances and vehicles, indicating a recovery in the consumer market [15][66]. Company Performance - Hisense reported a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year for 2024, with a net profit of 2.246 billion yuan, reflecting a stable financial performance [56]. - Stone Technology achieved a revenue growth of 38% year-on-year, although its net profit declined by 4%, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [58]. - The report highlights the struggles of Gome Retail, which reported a significant loss and declining revenues, reflecting broader challenges in the traditional retail sector [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing's "Housing Seven Articles" policy aims to stabilize the real estate market by canceling restrictions, promoting housing exchanges, and supporting young homebuyers, thereby creating a multi-dimensional support system for housing consumption [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Highlights - The new policy includes the cancellation of sales restrictions, an upgraded "old-for-new" housing exchange program, and support for young homebuyers, which collectively aim to stimulate market demand and optimize supply structure [2][5][12]. - Nanjing's real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with new home prices leading among 70 major cities and a 40% year-on-year increase in new home transactions [5][21]. Group 2: Financial Innovations - Financial innovations targeting young homebuyers include low down payment options and flexible repayment plans, such as loans with a minimum down payment of 15% and monthly payments starting at 100 yuan for the first five years [11][12]. - The expansion of the provident fund withdrawal options allows families to pool resources for down payments, enhancing the affordability of home purchases [12][20]. Group 3: Upgraded Housing Exchange - The "old-for-new" policy has been significantly enhanced, offering up to 6% in purchase subsidies through government and developer contributions, thus lowering the barriers for housing exchanges [15][16]. - The policy separates the buying and selling processes, allowing buyers to receive subsidies even if their old property has not sold, thereby facilitating smoother transactions in the housing market [16][17]. Group 4: Market Confidence and Structure Optimization - The comprehensive cancellation of sales restrictions is expected to enhance liquidity in the second-hand housing market, promoting a positive cycle of resource activation and new home purchases [21][22]. - The integration of various policies, including the housing ticket system and land supply optimization, aims to create a balanced supply-demand structure and enhance the overall health of the real estate market [22][23].