Group 1 - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba rising over 3% and Kingsoft Cloud increasing nearly 7%, indicating optimistic growth prospects for its cloud services business [1][2] - Netflix's stock rose by 2% after the company raised its full-year revenue forecast [1][2] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 53.82 points, or 0.12%, closing at 44,538.31 [3] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 77.94 points, or 0.37%, reaching 20,963.59 [3] - The S&P 500 index gained 14.74 points, or 0.23%, ending at 6,312.10 [3] Group 3 - Chevron's stock rose by 3% in pre-market trading after successfully completing the acquisition of Hess, winning a competitive bid against ExxonMobil [8][13] - Hess's stock also saw a pre-market increase of over 7% following the arbitration victory against Exxon, which facilitated Chevron's acquisition [12][13]

智通财经7月18日电，美国众议院议长约翰逊表示应该降息。 ...

美国众议院议长约翰逊表示应该降息。 ...

美国众议院议长约翰逊：我们应该降息。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, but investors need to be wary of risks brought by subsequent tariffs [5][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the employment market [5]. - In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected, alleviating concerns about consumer spending contraction [5]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations [5]. - Domestically, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, industrial production was strong while demand was weak. The production of refined copper in the second quarter is expected to increase [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Domestic TC maintains a low and weak quotation; US retail sales in June are better than expected; the spot has changed from a discount to a premium [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The tight inventory situation in non - US regions has eased; LME copper inventory continues to rise [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper ore imports**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Chile's copper exports to China have rebounded [18]. - **Mining end**: As of the week of July 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.31 dollars/dry ton, up 0.12 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market is expected to remain stable [22]. - **Electrolytic copper production**: In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The production in June is expected to remain high [24]. - **Waste copper imports**: In May, China's waste copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The supply from major countries has declined [27]. - **Refined - waste price difference**: As of July 17, the refined - waste price difference was around - 1,075 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [31]. - **Copper product production**: In June, the production of refined copper rods decreased, the production of copper strips decreased, the production of copper materials increased, the production of household refrigerators increased, and the export of automobiles maintained a high growth rate [35][39][43][46][50]. - **Real estate market**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, with declines in new construction and completion areas [54]. - **Copper inventory**: LME copper inventory has accumulated, with the latest level at 122,150 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly to 81,462 tons in the week of July 11. COMEX inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 241,814 tons. Domestic spot inventory increased to 144,400 tons on July 17 [58]. - **Copper spot premium**: On July 17, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 85 yuan/ton, while the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 58.71 dollars/ton [62]. 3.4后市研判 - The copper price will maintain a volatile trend, but risks from subsequent tariffs should be watched out for [65].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is at a critical juncture, with economists suggesting a shift towards targeted loan tools rather than large-scale quantitative easing (QE) in response to future economic shocks [1][2]. Group 1: Future Policy Tools - A fundamental debate is ongoing regarding the ECB's future policy tools, with a survey indicating that the ECB is likely to prefer providing loans (such as Long-Term Refinancing Operations, LTROs) over bond purchases in crisis situations [2]. - The shift in preference reflects concerns over the health of the central bank's balance sheet and policy credibility, as past QE policies have led to significant losses for some regional central banks [2][3]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned that central bank losses could "damage credibility," emphasizing that while asset purchases stabilize markets, they are costlier when used for economic stimulus [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - There is increasing uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate cut, with a split among economists on whether the ECB's rate-cutting cycle has ended or if a final cut will occur later this year [4]. - Approximately 25% of surveyed economists believe the rate-cutting cycle has concluded, while nearly half predict the last cut will happen in September, and 21% expect it in December [4]. - External factors, particularly trade negotiations between the EU and the US, are seen as critical variables influencing the ECB's decision-making process [4]. Group 3: Currency and Inflation Challenges - The strengthening euro and complex inflation outlook present challenges for ECB decision-makers, with the euro rising nearly 12% against the dollar this year [5][8]. - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos indicated that a euro exchange rate of 1.20 against the dollar could signal economic trouble, although only about 25% of economists agree with this threshold [5][8]. - Analysts express a balanced view on inflation risks, with opinions nearly evenly split on the likelihood of inflation exceeding or falling below the ECB's target [8].

美联储理事沃勒表示，对私营部门招聘的担忧促使他呼吁美联储本月降息。周五，沃勒在接受采访时 说："私营部门的表现并不像大家想象的那么好。"7月初发布的6月就业报告显示，尽管失业率有所下 降，但私营部门就业增长大幅放缓，工资增长也在减速。不过沃勒拒绝透露，如果其他决策者在7月29- 30日在华盛顿开会时决定不降息，他是否会持不同意见。 ...

路透调查：分析师预计匈牙利将在2025年底前降息25个基点。 ...

美国银行全球研究：预计英国央行今年将分别在八月和十一月两次降息，较之前预测的八月、九月和十 一月三次降息有所调整。 订阅英国央行动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1 - The discussion regarding Powell's position has subsided, but concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve remain prevalent in the market and investment community [1][5][6] - Recent strong economic data, including rising retail sales and declining unemployment claims, have led to a positive outlook for U.S. corporate earnings, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a significant renovation of its buildings, which has drawn criticism regarding rising costs and has been linked to discussions about Powell's potential dismissal [3][4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally protected, and the President cannot dismiss the Fed Chair without just cause, despite political pressures for rate cuts [4][5] - The U.S. government is under pressure to manage its substantial debt, with rising bond yields exacerbating concerns about fiscal sustainability [4][5] - Powell's commitment to maintaining a 2% inflation target and full employment reflects a stable policy approach, which is crucial for market expectations [5][6]