新华财经纽约11月18日电美元指数18日下跌。 1美元兑换155.53日元，高于前一交易日的155.25日元；1美元兑换0.7992瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.7965瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3979加元，低于前一交易日的1.4055加元；1美元兑换9.4640瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4877瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.04%，在汇市尾市收于99.551。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1585美元，高于前一交易日的1.1583美元；1英镑兑换1.3155美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3146美元。 ...

11月18日周二，美元指数（DXY）在99.55附近整理，市场聚焦因政府停摆推迟的美国经济数据，其中 周四的9月非农就业报告为核心。美联储官员释放劳动力市场疲软信号，使12月降息预期降至43%。数 据与讲话落地前投资者观望情绪浓厚，美元短线方向将取决于非农表现。 美元指数技术面分析 从日线结构观察，美元指数目前运行于20日均线下方，短线趋势仍偏弱势，但99.50区域已形成较强支 撑。若指数能站稳该支撑区间，并重新突破20日均线（约99.90位置），将打开向100.50的反弹空间。 指标层面，14日RSI指标位于45-50区间，反映市场动能中性偏弱，且尚未触及超卖区域，意味着短线大 概率延续震荡格局。若后续跌破99.40支撑位，下行目标将指向99.10及98.80的阶梯式支撑区间。 官员言论的密集释放，直接引发市场对美联储政策预期的调整。据CME FedWatch工具数据显示，当前 交易员预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至43%，较一周前的62%大幅回落，与一个月前"几乎 确定降息"的市场共识形成鲜明反差。 综合来看，在重磅数据落地前，美元指数维持中性偏弱的整理格局，而劳动力市场的实际信号，将成为 锚定 ...

【要闻速递】 近期，美联储官员纷纷释放鹰派信号，令市场在降息预期上更为谨慎。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克 （Bostic）与堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）等多位官员均着重强调了通胀风险，明确表态支持维 持现有利率区间不变。 受此影响，市场对12月降息的预期进一步降温。最新数据表明，目前市场仅预计约45%的可能性会在12 月降息25个基点，这一比例较前一周的60%出现了显著下滑。 不过，瑞银分析师指出，尽管未来公布的经济数据或许会对今年第三次降息的整体预期产生一定干扰， 但短期内的不确定性仍将导致黄金价格呈现波动态势。 今日周二（11月18日）亚盘市中，黄金于4030美元附近延续跌势。市场情绪显著转变，投资者对美联储 下月降息预期大幅降温，致黄金承压。利率走向是影响贵金属价格关键因素，市场预期宽松周期放缓使 无息资产黄金吸引力降低。同时，美元指数三连涨抬高非美货币投资者购金成本，进一步抑制需求。此 前美国政府长期关门致经济数据滞后，加剧美元短线波动并间接冲击金价。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 从日线周期观察，黄金整体呈现震荡偏弱结构。K线数日连续收跌，价格运行在主要均线下方，显示上 方抛压较重。 短期均线呈现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation due to high inventory and oversupply, and stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern because of weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 117,020 yuan/ton and closed at 116,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,806 (-15,915) lots, and the open interest was 107,341 (-4,908) lots. The price continued the downward trend after breaking through on November 14. The strengthening of the US dollar index and loose supply - demand relationship with rising inventory led to a clear short - term downward trend [1] - **Nickel Ore**: New tenders in the nickel ore market are about to be finalized, and the price is stable. In the Philippines, there are tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. The downstream nickel - iron price is falling, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore and want to lower the price. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (5,604) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,113 (+17,461) lots, and the open interest was 172,728 (-4,171) lots. The price fluctuated at a low level, hovering around the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, with the short - term moving average system intertwined and the direction unclear. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and falling nickel prices, there was no sign of a price rebound [3] - **Spot**: The price continued to decline to a historical low, and the market inquiry heat increased. In the context of weak demand and falling raw material costs, steel mills were more willing to sell at low prices. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,750 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 380 - 580 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 902.5 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Core Insights - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, stand at 1,041.43 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day [5] - Gold prices have continued to decline, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The market is experiencing a shift in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions and the end of government shutdowns [5] Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 17, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were reported at 1,041.43 tons, down from previous levels [5] - The decline in holdings correlates with a drop in gold prices, which fell to around $4,000 per ounce before recovering slightly to close at $4,045.50 [5] Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been under pressure due to a strong US dollar and diminishing expectations for a December interest rate cut, with the probability dropping from 94% to 44% [5] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is becoming more hawkish, which may continue to impact gold prices negatively in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently showing a range-bound pattern, with key support around $4,043 and resistance at $4,100 [7] - If gold prices break below the $4,040-$4,050 range, they may revisit the previous range of $3,900-$4,050 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are currently dominant, while the MACD shows signs of losing bearish momentum [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the US dollar index, driven by Federal Reserve policy disagreements and economic data performance [1][2] - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward movement since hitting a low of 98.865 on November 3, forming a potential "W-bottom" pattern [2] - The market is currently focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to be a key catalyst for the dollar index's direction [1] Group 2 - As of November 18, the dollar index is trading within a narrow range of 99.20-99.60, with a recent high of 99.477 and a low of 99.245, indicating a buildup for a potential breakout [2] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 57.1%, while the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased to 42.9%, providing support for the dollar index [1] - Technical indicators show a bullish structure with the RSI reading at 52 and MACD showing signs of a bullish crossover, suggesting a moderate release of bullish momentum [2]

Market Overview - The market sentiment has shifted significantly, with investors reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] - The current trading price of gold is around $4030, continuing its downward trend due to the strong dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1][2] Federal Reserve Influence - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced market perceptions of maintaining high interest rates, further diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1][2] - Market pricing for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to approximately 45%, down from 60% the previous week, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has shown a clear downtrend, with a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern indicating a weak short-term outlook [3] - The price is currently operating below the five-day moving average, suggesting continued bearish momentum [3] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to maintain a bearish outlook, with specific entry points for short positions around the 10-day moving average at $4055 and potential targets at $4005 and $3976 [5][6] - For potential long positions, a buy strategy is suggested around $3975-$3980, with targets set at $4000-$4010 [6] Key Levels - Resistance levels are identified at $4055, $4075, and $4095, while support levels are at $4005, $3976, and $3930 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a downward trend on November 17, with prices fluctuating and ultimately closing lower, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Economic data releases are limited, with a focus on speeches from Federal Reserve officials and changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased from over 60% to 39%-41%, contributing to a rebound in the US dollar index by 0.25% to 99.54, which has pressured gold buying [4]. - Delayed economic data releases this week, particularly the September non-farm payroll report, are expected to increase market uncertainty [4]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weak downward trend, forming a "three consecutive bearish candles" pattern, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [3]. - The current daily moving average system is disorganized, with no clear bullish or bearish arrangement, leading to ineffective support and resistance levels [3]. - On the four-hour chart, gold has been in a downward trend, breaking below the key support level of 4032, with the price reaching a low of approximately 4007 [6]. - The decline from the high of 4245 has formed a complete five-wave structure, with the current price action likely in the first wave of a C-wave decline [6]. - Key support levels to monitor include 4007, 3980, and 3963, with 3980 corresponding to the weekly MA10 and 3963 being a significant Fibonacci retracement level [6]. Market Events - Upcoming economic data releases include the Australian Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes, US import price index, industrial production, and NAHB housing market index [8].

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a temporary increase of 2% following the attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port, but subsequently declined as the port resumed operations, indicating a balance between supply recovery and geopolitical risks [3] - Gold prices have recently decreased due to shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with uncertainty around potential rate cuts impacting investor sentiment [3] - The decline in base metals like copper is attributed to a strengthening US dollar, which reduces the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities, although long-term demand is expected to be driven by global economic recovery [3] Group 2 - Long-term investment strategies should focus on core market dynamics rather than short-term fluctuations, with oil prices influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and geopolitical tensions, while gold prices await clearer signals from the Federal Reserve [4] - The key to long-term profitability lies in identifying fundamental market contradictions and waiting for definitive opportunities rather than reacting to daily market movements [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to experience fluctuations following a significant drop last Friday, with current prices showing a slight decline and key support levels being tested [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is down 0.12% at $4,077.31 per ounce, with intraday lows dipping below $4,050 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a decline of 0.32%, trading at $4,081.20 per ounce, with a minimum price of $4,051.10 during the session [2][3]. Market Influences - The primary factor for the recent gold price correction is the sharp decline in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with market probabilities for a December cut dropping from over 90% to below 50% [3][4]. - A strengthening U.S. dollar has increased the cost of gold for non-U.S. investors, further impacting demand [3][4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions have led to a withdrawal of some safe-haven investments from the gold market [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate high volatility and a potential trading range around the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, with market participants focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic data [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and concerns over U.S. debt impacting dollar credibility [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility is a normal correction following historical highs, with expectations for a rebound once stabilization occurs [4].