Group 1 - The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, with a record high of 616.936 billion yuan in July, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [1] - The cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, supporting major project construction and maintaining resilience in infrastructure investment growth [1] - The market expects an accelerated issuance of new special bonds in the third quarter, with over 1.6 trillion yuan of quota available for use from August to December [1] Group 2 - The fiscal policy this year has been more proactive, with the combination of existing policies expected to continue improving investment funding and project support [2] - The significant supply of government bonds is anticipated to provide substantial support to the social financing scale, with net financing amounts projected to reach 1.29 trillion yuan and 1.41 trillion yuan in July and August, respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

Market Overview - The market indices mostly declined, with the CSI 100 experiencing a significant drop of -2.15%[28] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index decreased to 18,096.34 billion CNY, down from 18,486.97 billion CNY, indicating a historical high position at the 93.40% percentile over the past three years[43][46] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 conveyed a more optimistic economic outlook, emphasizing "steady progress" and the need for proactive fiscal policies[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, focusing on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term stability[11] Sector Performance - The healthcare index and information technology index showed relative strength, with weekly gains of 2.65% and 0.71%, respectively[31] - The real estate index and energy index underperformed, with declines of -3.57% and -3.49% respectively[31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining investment in technology sectors (AI, robotics) and utility sectors, as well as brokerage firms, reflecting a shift from cyclical to innovation-driven market dynamics[18][21]

宏观：本周（7月21日-7月25日，下同）宏观面偏向利空。海外方面，美联储公布了最新的利率决议， 一如市场预期，该央行仍将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，美元指数仍保持强势，压制金属价 格。美国劳工部1日公布最新非农业部门就业数据，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至4.2%，当月 非农业部门新增就业岗位为7.3万，低于市场预期的11万。同时，美国5月和6月份非农业部门新增就业 岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别被大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万，显示美国就业市场明显降温。此 外，近期中美经贸团队就重大议题进行深入交流，同意推动美方已暂停的对等关税24%部分以及中方反 制措施如期展期，并将继续沟通以稳定双边经贸关系。国内方面，中共中央政治局会议部署下半年经济 工作，强调宏观政策持续发力，实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策，并推动资本市场回稳向好。央 行召开2025年下半年工作会议，会议要求坚持稳中求进工作总基调，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等，进一步深化金融改革和高水平对外开放，防范化 解重点领域金融风险。 电解铝： 供应：国内电解铝运行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [106, 109] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, continued focus on central bank's capital injection; loose monetary policy; economic data decline in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks - **Concern Data**: Economic data in May [7] 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [102, 103] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, central bank's open - market reverse repurchase; the tone of monetary policy set by the Politburo meeting in July is moderately loose - **Concern Data**: Changes in central bank's LPR interest rate, changes in central bank's monetary policy, economic data in May [7] 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [105, 106.5] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, central bank's open - market reverse repurchase; the tone of monetary policy set by the Politburo meeting in July is moderately loose - **Concern Data**: Central bank's monetary policy operations, changes in central bank's LPR interest rate, economic data in May [12] 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2509) - **View**: Range - bound trading in the range of [111, 120] - **Logic**: Slightly improved liquidity environment, continued focus on central bank's capital injection; loose monetary policy; economic data decline in June with weak domestic demand and external shocks - **Concern Data**: Economic data in May [12] Summary According to the Directory I. Economic Situation 1. Consumption - Short - term consumption declined slightly. In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [21] 2. Investment - Investment growth declined slightly. In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.6% year - on - year. In June, manufacturing investment growth declined to 7.5%, a 1% decline from the previous month. High - tech service industry growth remained at a high level, exceeding that of high - tech manufacturing. Infrastructure investment growth excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries was 4.8% year - on - year, further declining from the previous month [21][25][29] 3. Real Estate - In June, real estate investment growth continued to decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the floor area of newly started buildings was 20.1%, with a slightly narrowed decline. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the floor area of commercial housing sales was 3.5%, with an enlarged decline [35] 4. Import and Export - In June 2025, exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with a 1.0 - percentage - point increase from May. The cumulative export in the first half of the year increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year, ending consecutive negative growth; the cumulative import in the first half of the year decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [39] II. Inflation Indicators 1. CPI - In June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year - on - year. In the first half of the year, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [46] 2. PPI - In June 2025, the national producer price index for industrial products and the purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with an enlarged decline of 0.3% [49] III. Policy Expectations - The Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing "maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability". Fiscal and monetary policies did not introduce large - scale stimulus tools but focused on the "implementation and refinement" of previous policies. Fiscal policy focused on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, improving capital efficiency, and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. Monetary policy focused on structural tools to support scientific and technological innovation, small and micro - enterprises and other fields, and promote the decline of social financing costs [49] IV. Overseas Data 1. US Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious rebound from the first quarter [49] 2. US Inflation - In June 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.67% year - on - year, slightly higher than the market expectation; the core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, indicating a mild rebound in inflation pressure but still within the controllable range [52] 3. US Employment - In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest level since November 2021 [54] 4. US Manufacturing PMI - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49% but remained below the boom - bust line [56] 5. Fed Monetary Policy - The Fed paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Market expectations show that the probability of a rate cut in September is only about 40%, mainly due to Powell's hawkish speech after the July meeting. The probability of rate cuts from October to December remains high. The Fed may delay balance - sheet reduction [61][67][68] V. Other Data 1. Interest Rates - The DR interest rate continued to decline, breaking through 1.40%. The interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit also slightly rebounded compared with the previous month, with a general increase of about 3 - 5bp for each term [75] 2. Exchange Rates - In July, the on - shore US dollar - RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.17. The US dollar index remained weak in July, fluctuating around the level of 97 [82]

Macro Policy - The macro policy emphasizes the release of existing policy effects, advocating for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The meeting did not reiterate the previous mention of "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" from April[1] - The Ministry of Finance has reported six cases of hidden debt accountability, stressing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task[1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is tightening regarding debt management, with a focus on actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks and prohibiting new hidden debts[2] - The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strict accountability for those responsible for hidden debts, reinforcing the crackdown on illegal activities related to new hidden debts[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has not mentioned "timely interest rate cuts" but emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and promoting a decline in overall financing costs[3] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting service consumption and implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, and healthcare sectors[4] - Investment strategies include high-quality promotion of "two重" construction and the establishment of new policy financial tools to enhance investment returns[4] Market Competition - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, with a focus on regulating chaotic competition among enterprises[5] - Specific measures include conducting cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues[5]

Revenue Performance - In June 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline from May's 0.1%[1] - Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in May, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.7%, a larger decline than the previous month's 2.2%[5] - For the first half of 2025, general public budget revenue cumulatively decreased by 0.3%, matching the performance from January to May[7] Expenditure Trends - In June 2025, general public budget expenditure grew by 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in May[1] - Cumulatively, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% in the first half of 2025, a slowdown from 4.2% in the previous period[9] - By June, general public budget expenditure completed 47.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average of 48.1%[9] Government Fund Insights - In June, government fund revenue surged by 20.8% year-on-year, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 8.1%[10] - Cumulatively, government fund revenue decreased by 2.4% in the first half of 2025, with land transfer revenue down by 6.5%[10] - Government fund expenditure in June increased by 79.2% year-on-year, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[10] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting indicated that macro policies will continue to be proactive in the second half of 2025, emphasizing the need for increased government bond issuance and improved fund utilization[12] - Potential measures may include raising the fiscal deficit ratio and increasing the issuance of special bonds to stimulate domestic demand and counteract external economic slowdowns[12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for a consistent macro policy orientation, integrating various economic policies to enhance overall policy effectiveness and ensure a coordinated approach in fiscal and monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The government is accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds as a key macroeconomic control tool, with a significant increase in bond issuance this year, including a record high in national bonds and a 45% year-on-year increase in local government special bonds [2]. - A total of 2.16 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds was issued in the first half of the year, ensuring the effectiveness of a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The central government has allocated 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, alongside the completion of an 800 billion yuan project list for "two new" construction projects [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlights the importance of maintaining a flexible and anticipatory monetary policy, with new structural monetary policy tools being introduced to enhance policy effectiveness [4]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies aims to lower financing costs and stimulate consumer potential [5]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Investment - Recent policies such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education are aimed at enhancing social welfare, supported by substantial fiscal funding, including an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies [3]. - The focus on investing in people and ensuring basic livelihood protections is crucial for boosting consumption and driving domestic demand [3].

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[8] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1[8] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, maintaining a similar pace to Q1[11] - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, although this represented a decline of 2.0 percentage points from Q1[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment totaled 24.87 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[20] - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 9.9% in Q1[20] Trade Dynamics - Total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7%[30] - The trade surplus remained high due to a "rush to export" effect amid tariff uncertainties[30] Price Indexes - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%[33] - The PPI decline was attributed to weak demand, falling costs, and overcapacity in several industries[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, showing stability compared to the previous year[40] - National public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 3.4% to 14.1 trillion yuan[46] Monetary Policy - The central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[53] - New loans in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.92 trillion yuan, with a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure sectors[58]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Zhu Haibin as the Assistant President (Economic Research) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is a significant development, indicating a focus on macroeconomic and financial stability research in Hong Kong [3][5]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Zhu Haibin will officially take up the role on October 1, 2025, following the recommendation of the HKMA's governing committee [3]. - His appointment comes after the resignation of Zhang Liling, who left the position for personal reasons [6]. Group 2: Background of Zhu Haibin - Zhu Haibin holds a Bachelor's degree in Information Management from Peking University, a Master's degree in Economics from the People's Bank of China, and a PhD in Economics from Duke University [5]. - He has extensive experience in economic research, particularly in macroeconomic and financial stability policy research for Mainland China and Hong Kong [5]. - Prior to joining HKMA, Zhu served as Managing Director and Chief Economist for China at JPMorgan Chase, and he has also worked as a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements [5]. Group 3: HKMA Overview - The HKMA was established on April 1, 1993, through the merger of the Exchange Fund and the Office of the Commissioner of Banking [6]. - Its main functions include maintaining monetary stability under the linked exchange rate system, promoting the stability and soundness of the banking system, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [6].