Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, caustic soda is under pressure, but in the long - term, there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 830, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2594, and the basis is 34 [1] Spot News - Since August 1st, major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 760 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - At the macro level, attention should be paid to the risk of an unexpected trade war in August, and the anti - involution sentiment has weakened recently. During the anti - involution process, the fundamentals of caustic soda have not improved significantly, and there is a lack of driving force. Currently, anti - involution policies do not cover the caustic soda industry [3] - Caustic soda has insufficient motivation to increase prices due to the off - season demand, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on caustic soda supply and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

在中国市场中，本土手机品牌已经成功吸引了消费者，加大了苹果的竞争压力。苹果公布大中华地区营 收为 154 亿美元，较上年同期增长 4.4%，华尔街预期 152 亿美元。这与前两个季度的情况形成了鲜明 对比，在这两个季度中，苹果大中华销售额分别下降了 2%（在第二财季）和 11%（在第一财季）。 展望未来，对于截止至9月份的财季，苹果预计整体营收将增长 10%至 20%——这一增幅优于分析师此 前预测的 3%；服务业务的增长率将与本季度 13%的增幅类似；而毛利率预计将在 46%至 47%之间，即 便包括与关税相关的成本。 尽管受到特朗普贸易战的威胁，苹果（AAPL.US）最新公布的季度收入远好于预期，iPhone销量飙升。 苹果（AAPL.US）公布第三财季营收增速为近三年来最快，远超华尔街的预期，这得益于中国对 iPhone 及相关产品的需求有所回升。该公司周四在一份声明中称，截至 6 月 28 日的财季，营收同比增 长9.6%（自2021年12月以来最快增速），达到 940 亿美元，分析师此前的平均预测为 893 亿美元。第 三季度每股盈利达到 1.57 美元，超过了平均预期的 1.43 美元，上年同期为 ...

老王紧盯着手机屏幕，指尖微微颤抖，心中的苦涩如同眼前的绿色数字般蔓延。三天前，账户里还盈余着14万多的利润，如今却尽数 化为泡影，只剩一片惨淡的绿意。时间回溯到7月22日，国际金价如火箭般蹿升，一度触及3431美元/盎司的历史高位。彼时，老王心中 盘算着再等等，凑个整数便出手。 然而，市场的风云变幻莫测。7月23日开盘，金价便如断崖般跳空低开，紧接着，连续四根巨大的阴线砸了下来，3400、3380、 3350……每一道关口都如同被摧枯拉朽般击溃。最终，金价重重地摔回3300美元的起跑线，老王这半年来在黄金市场上的辛勤耕耘， 连本带利，尽数吐回。 与此同时，国内金店的景象也并不乐观。周大福的柜台前，几位大妈凑在一起，看着标签上的数字，啧啧叹息。"前个月还1080呢，你 看现在，999元！"老庙黄金更是直接打出了"999元/克"的醒目横幅，相较于六月份，足足便宜了一百块。导购小姐姐小声嘟囔着："金 价这么个跌法，我开了十年店还是头一回见。" 回顾整个七月，黄金市场犹如一辆疯狂的过山车，走势之惊险刺激，令人心惊胆战。六月底，金价还在3300美元的平台上苦苦盘整， 七月初却突然启动加速模式，20号一举突破3400美元 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened high but closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the third consecutive trading day [1] - The Dow Jones fell by 330.30 points, or 0.74%, closing at 44,130.98 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 7.23 points, or 0.03%, closing at 21,122.45 points; the S&P 500 decreased by 23.51 points, or 0.37%, closing at 6,339.39 points [1] Trade Policies - President Trump announced new tariffs on various imports, including a 15% tariff on goods exported from South Korea in exchange for a $350 billion investment commitment from South Korea [1] - A 25% tariff will be imposed on Indian exports to the U.S., with additional penalties threatened if India continues to purchase energy from Russia [1] Company Performance - Figma's stock surged over 27% in after-hours trading, with its IPO first-day closing up 250% at $115.5, resulting in a total market capitalization of $56.3 billion [1] - Apple's quarterly revenue increased by approximately 10% to $94 billion, driven by strong iPhone sales, despite the challenges posed by the trade war [10] - Amazon's cloud business revenue grew by 18% to $30.9 billion, slightly above market expectations, but lower than competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet [11] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [10] - Canada's GDP fell by 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive month of contraction, primarily due to declines in the goods-producing sector [7] Analyst Ratings - HSBC raised the target price for Meta Platforms from $610 to $900 [12] - Raymond James increased Microsoft's target price from $570 to $630 [12]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the U.S. opened high but closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the third consecutive trading day [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 330.30 points, or 0.74%, closing at 44,130.98 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 7.23 points, or 0.03%, to 21,122.45 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 23.51 points, or 0.37%, to 6,339.39 points [1] Company Performance - Figma's stock surged over 27% in after-hours trading, with its IPO first-day closing up 250%, reaching a market capitalization of $56.3 billion [1] - Apple reported a strong quarterly revenue of approximately $94 billion, exceeding the expected $89.3 billion, driven by a 13.5% increase in global iPhone sales [11] - Amazon's cloud business revenue grew by 18% to $30.9 billion in Q2, slightly above market expectations, but lower than competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet [12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, slightly above market expectations, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [10] - Canada's GDP fell by 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive month of contraction, primarily due to declines in the goods-producing sector [7] Trade and Policy Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from South Korea and India, including a 15% tariff on South Korean goods and a 25% tariff on Indian exports [1] - The U.S. government is extending a temporary trade agreement with Mexico for 90 days, maintaining existing tariffs on various goods [5] - Trump urged 17 major pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices in the U.S. to match those in other countries [6] Investment Insights - The U.S. Treasury's plan to increase the supply of treasury bills may pressure the Federal Reserve to purchase more short-term government bonds [9] - A meeting led by the Trump administration focused on providing minimum price guarantees and financial support to U.S. rare earth companies [8]

金十数据8月1日讯，尽管受到特朗普贸易战的威胁，苹果(AAPL.O)最新公布的季度收入远好于预期， iPhone销量飙升。财报显示，苹果第三财季营收同比增长约10%，至940亿美元，远高于893亿美元的普 遍预期。全球iPhone销量同比增长13.5%，至446亿美元。特朗普的贸易和关税议程使苹果市值蒸发了约 7000亿美元。苹果首席财务官Kevan Parekh表示："我们本季度业绩的三大驱动力是iPhone、Mac和服务 部门。"此外，该公司表示，其季度毛利率为46.5%，好于46%的预期；公司第三季度来自大中华的收入 同比增长4%，达到154亿美元，扭转了季度下滑的趋势。Parekh称，有"一些迹象"表明客户提前下单， 以便在美国关税公告之前抢先一步，他还补充道，这大约占了"年增长的十个点中的一个点"。 iPhone销售强劲及大中华区市场反弹推动苹果营收大增 ...

7 月 30 日，美国财政部长贝森特披露，在瑞典与中方进行经贸磋商期间，双方谈及了中国购买俄罗斯石油的议题。 贝森特表示，鉴于俄罗斯始终未停止对乌克兰的战事，美国正将制裁俄罗斯石油作为推动停火的手段，为此他提出警 告：那些购买俄罗斯石油的国家，或将面临 100% 的二级关税。 他还提到，中方认为购买俄罗斯石油是主权范围内的事，而美国虽无意侵犯中国主权，但言下之意，中国若继续购 买，恐怕就得承担这笔额外的关税了。 7月30日，乌克兰总统办公室主任顾问波多里亚克的看法很有代表性。 他预计，美国此举等于迫使中国在与西方贸易和与莫斯科贸易之间做出选择。 因为一旦美国对俄罗斯石油实施二级关税，欧洲随后很可能跟进，那么对购买俄罗斯石油的国家就会有一种西方集体 联合施压的压力。 基于此，波多里亚克判断，在美国与欧盟缔结贸易协定后，双方有望恢复互利合作关系。这一点对华盛顿而言尤为重 要，毕竟美国与中国的谈判仍在推进过程中。 对此我们外交部发言人说，中国将根据自身国家利益采取合理的能源保障措施，并提到反对胁迫与施压。 由于美国人把关税谈判和俄乌战争联系起来，因此乌克兰方面对中国的态度就非常重视。 他进一步指出，在这样的背景下， ...

特朗普上任后不久，便开始对俄罗斯采取一系列经济制裁措施，尤其是在石油贸易领域，目标直指中俄之间那条至关重要的石油管道。2025年3月底，他通 过电话采访公开威胁，计划对购买俄罗斯石油的国家征收25%至50%的二级关税，尤其是针对中国和印度这些重要的进口国。他还表示，如果俄罗斯不参与 乌克兰和平谈判，他将采取更为严厉的措施。 特朗普的这一系列威胁，使得全球石油市场出现了不小的波动。布伦特原油价格一度突破每桶90美元，市场的巨大不确定性让油价波动加剧。分析师认为， 如果俄罗斯的石油出口突然消失，全球市场将面临严重缺口。沙特和阿联酋能够补充一部分供应，但仍然远远不够。更为严重的是，美国自身也面临压力， 油价上涨将加剧通胀，而美国民众的反感情绪可能使特朗普的政策受到更多阻力。 特朗普此前也曾威胁对委内瑞拉石油买家征收25%关税，但这一威胁至今未付诸实施，中国依然是委内瑞拉的最大石油买家。对于特朗普的威胁，俄罗斯方 面并未过于担心。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，需要时间对特朗普的声明进行分析，但并没有对此表示过于紧张。外长拉夫罗夫更是直言这是经济霸 凌，俄罗斯将与中国和印度进一步加强合作。 然而，实际情况与特朗普的预期 ...

Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP for the second quarter showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing the first quarter's contraction of -0.5% and significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter but still above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflationary pressures [1][2] Factors Influencing Economic Performance - A significant decline in imports and a rapid increase in consumer spending were identified as key factors for the unexpected growth in the second quarter [2] - Net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP due to new tariff measures that led to a decrease in imports, contrasting with the previous quarter's surge in imports driven by export countries [2] Employment and Consumer Spending - Consumer spending grew by 1.4% in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 1.5%, suggesting a gradual weakening of real demand [2] - The ADP employment report for July showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, but still falling short of last year's average levels, reflecting cautious hiring decisions amid tariff policy uncertainties [2][4] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the current interest rates during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs and inflation [4] - The Fed's decision comes in the context of a significant decline in the dollar's value, which has dropped over 10% this year due to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession [4] Market Outlook - The unexpected economic data for the second quarter has alleviated recession fears, while the clarity in trade negotiations among developed economies is expected to influence the future trajectory of the dollar and gold prices [5]

| | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 -69.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1425.100 | | 1692.3 | -63.10↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -267.20 +2.10↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 | | | -59.60 | +3.70↑ | | | EC合约基差 891.46 +43.60↑ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 51818 -3056↓ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 2316.56 -83.94↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,284.01 | -17.80↓ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1592.59 -54.31↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1261 ...