据报道，中方停收美国波音飞机后，特朗普失态怒吼"中方违约"！这场看似突然的风波，背后藏着怎样 的大国博弈？ 最近，美国政坛和经济领域可谓是"乱成一锅粥"。5月28日，美国国际贸易法庭作出重磅裁决，判定特 朗普引用1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》加征关税的做法超越权限。像对加拿大、墨西哥、中国征收的 芬太尼相关关税，以及对全球征收的"对等关税"等多项关税均被裁定违法，特朗普政府需在10日内暂停 加征关税程序。可特朗普政府哪肯轻易认输，马上提起上诉，上诉法院也批准关税"暂时维持"，这场关 于关税的法律拉锯战，让美国关税政策充满了不确定性。 特朗普（资料图） 这边关税问题还没解决，那边特朗普又在5月30日突然宣布，要将进口钢铝关税上调至50%。这一举动 让美国的关税政策再次急转弯，也让国际社会看得目瞪口呆。其实，美国的关税政策反复无常已经不是 一天两天了。4月初，美国政府先是宣布征收"对等关税"，结果转头就主动暂停，说是为谈判创造缓和 空间；在和欧盟谈判时，也是先放话提前终止协商、直接征税，没几天又"改口"恢复期限。这种朝令夕 改的做法，让各国企业都无所适从，也让美国在国际上的信誉大打折扣。 而美国在对华贸易上，更 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented export control measures on rare earths, which aligns with international practices and is not aimed at any specific country. However, this has led to concerns among Western companies about potential production disruptions, with some media speculating about the "weaponization" of rare earths by China [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China is establishing an export licensing system for rare earths, which will allow it to monitor the global supply chain more closely [1]. - The new tracking system requires producers to submit additional information, including transaction volumes and customer names, indicating a more targeted approach to trade [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that this system is a strategic response to U.S. export control policies, reflecting a shift in China's trade strategy [2][6]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Impact - China currently dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for over 60% of production and 92% of processing, indicating a near-monopoly in the refining stage [4][6]. - The export controls have raised concerns among global automotive manufacturers, with reports of production line shutdowns in Europe due to inventory shortages [6]. - Companies are experiencing delays in obtaining export licenses, which could lead to significant production interruptions [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The new export control measures are seen as a way for China to exert influence over the U.S. and other countries, particularly in the context of ongoing trade negotiations [6][7]. - Analysts face challenges in tracking the approval speed of export licenses, as data is not publicly available, complicating the understanding of the situation [7]. - The measures are perceived as a means for China to gain leverage in international trade discussions, particularly regarding technology controls [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflict between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, highlighting the implications of the "Beautiful Bill" and the 899 clause, which grants Trump significant power to impose taxes on foreign entities, potentially escalating into a global financial war [1][28][29]. Group 1: The "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" aims to reduce taxes by approximately $4.6 trillion over the next decade while increasing the national deficit by $3.2 trillion, which represents a 15% increase [12][13]. - It proposes a $1.6 trillion spending cut, primarily affecting medical assistance programs, which could harm low-income individuals [13][26]. - The bill's tax cuts are skewed towards high-income groups, with low-income individuals benefiting less, creating a paradoxical outcome [14]. Group 2: The 899 Clause - The 899 clause allows the U.S. government to impose additional taxes on foreign entities if they are deemed to have discriminatory tax practices against U.S. businesses [29][30]. - It specifically targets three types of taxes: digital services tax, profit-shifting tax, and OECD global minimum tax, which could affect many countries, particularly in the EU [31][33]. - The clause grants the U.S. Treasury Secretary broad authority to define what constitutes "unfair taxation," effectively giving the government "unlimited firepower" in trade disputes [34]. Group 3: Implications for Foreign Investment - The implementation of the 899 clause could lead to significant financial repercussions for foreign investors, including increased taxation on dividends and interest, potentially reducing their returns on U.S. investments [36][38]. - The clause may deter foreign investment in the U.S., as investors might sell off U.S. assets in response to perceived threats, leading to a decline in the stock market and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [40][41]. - Analysts predict that the stock market could drop by 10% and the dollar could depreciate by up to 5% if the 899 clause is fully enacted [41]. Group 4: Impact on Tesla and the Clean Energy Sector - The "Beautiful Bill" threatens Tesla's profitability by planning to phase out tax credits for electric vehicles, which could significantly impact Tesla's earnings [23][24]. - The conflict between Musk and Trump reflects broader tensions between traditional energy interests and the clean energy sector, with potential implications for future legislation [45][46].

美联储穆萨莱姆：贸易战导致持续通胀爆发的可能性为50%。关税可能会在"一两个季度"内推高通胀。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]

当地时间5日，英国《金融时报》发表文章称，美国政府发动关税战、贸易战，加之美国债务水平持续 飙升，导致全球大型机构投资者对美国资产的信心正在动摇，开始将资金撤出美国市场，转移至其他地 区。文章称，近期美国政府反复无常的贸易政策扰动全球市场，导致美元贬值，美国资本市场今年以来 的表现也远不及预期。此外，特朗普政府力推的"大而美"法案预计将使美国减少3.7万亿美元税收，在 未来10年增加2.4万亿美元赤字。这些因素促使机构投资者纷纷重新评估其在美国市场的持仓规模。(央 视新闻) ...

周五美国劳工部公布的数据显示，由于特朗普政府进口关税的不确定性，全美5月份的就业增长有所放 缓，但稳健的工资增长应能使经济扩张保持正轨，并可能使美联储推迟恢复降息。 利率市场仍预期美联储今年将降息2次。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次施压美联储降息，然而市场定价显示，今年美联储的政策空间依然相 对有限。 非农数据暗藏隐患 在周三公布的ADP私营就业数据降至两年低位后，政府版的就业指标——非农就业报告依然表现稳定。 5月新增就业岗位13.9万个，好于市场预期的12.5万个。 分部门看，医疗部门贡献了6.2万个新工作岗位，休闲和酒店行业新雇佣了4.8万名员工，这两个行业创 造了上月近80%的职位。相比之下，制造业、零售业、政府的就业人数有所下降。 失业率连续第三个月稳定在4.2%，因为62.5万人退出劳动力市场，这表明对就业市场缺乏信心。调查显 示，消费者对在被解雇的情况下找到工作的前景不太乐观。小时工资大幅增长0.4%，超过了市场预 测，同比增长率为3.9%，略高于美联储的可持续通胀预期薪资增速3.7%。 值得注意的是，前两个月数据被大幅下修，这是贸易战酝酿并开始的阶段，可能显示作为经济基石的有 弹性的美国劳动 ...

Group 1 - China's exports to the US have declined for three consecutive months, while US imports from China have not significantly increased, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2] - The US is facing persistent inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, while the Biden administration struggles to balance trade policies and domestic pressures [2][6] - The agricultural sector in the US is feeling the impact of trade tensions, as evidenced by the cancellation of a significant pork order from China, highlighting the political ramifications of trade policies [2] Group 2 - The ongoing US-China competition has evolved from trade to technology and geopolitical strategies, with both countries attempting to leverage their respective strengths [4] - China's GDP growth in the first quarter was 5.2%, driven largely by domestic consumption, indicating resilience despite export challenges [4] - The export of new energy vehicles from China surged by 60%, reflecting strong global demand and market confidence [4] Group 3 - The solar panel and lithium battery sectors in China are facing overcapacity issues, leading to longer inventory turnover periods and operational challenges for manufacturers [6] - In the US, the imposition of reciprocal tariffs has backfired, contributing to rising inflation and increased costs for consumers [6][8] - Walmart is struggling to maintain its low-price model due to supply chain disruptions and rising costs, which could impact its sales performance [8] Group 4 - China's technology sector continues to face challenges from US restrictions, but there are signs of resilience, such as advancements in Huawei's chip capabilities and increased domestic production [9] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with US allies navigating their own interests, leading to a complex web of trade relationships [9][11] - The competition between the US and China is characterized by a struggle for strategic endurance and institutional resilience, rather than a clear winner [11][13]

【美国炒作中方违反中美经贸共识】 在这场由美国发起的，对中国接连不断的贸易战里，美国政府自特朗普领衔，犹如一位豪赌的赌徒，不 断地加码和制造噱头，试图通过各种手段让中国屈服。然而，这场博弈远比想象中的复杂。 就在中美双方宣布暂停关税战不到一个月，美国政府就开始大肆炒作，所谓的"中国违反中美经贸共 识"这一论调。 然而，真正细细看来，美国在背后的小动作才可谓层出不穷，从限制AI芯片出口、撤销中国留学生签 证，再到禁止向中国销售芯片设计软件，无不显示出一种"打架还要喊救命"的诡异逻辑。这些措施，表 面上看是美国捍卫自身利益的举动，而实际上，则是对中美经贸共识的严重破坏。 中国商务部当即回应，以一种一针见血的态度指出了事实：中方积极维护日内瓦会谈的成果，取消了一 系列对等关税措施，反观美方却不断挑起事端，还倒打一耙。 中美贸易战硝烟再起，特朗普政府一边加码制裁，一边急切寻求对话，中国则以稀土管制等反制措施稳 守阵地。当美方频频破坏谈判共识后，这场"边打边谈"的博弈究竟该如何收场？ 而身在其中的特朗普政府仿佛被困住了一般，无计可施，只能期盼能够通过某种途径与中国进行有效沟 通。 【中国商务部回应美方无理指责】 这真是 ...

金十数据6月6日讯，斯巴达资本首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，本次非农数据虽略超共识预期及 我个人预测，但除时薪指标外，整体报告并未传递出美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号。事实上，0.4% 的时薪涨幅虽谈不上显著，但已足够引人注目——这直接锁定了美联储的观望立场。尽管就业市场确现 降温迹象（显然归因于贸易战引发的不确定性抑制企业招聘），但归根结底，这份报告料难引发市场大 幅波动，我只能将其归类为平庸之作。 经济学家：非农报告整体未传递美联储需干预劳动力市场的信号 ...