| 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | 15748.06 | 1161.84 | 955.94 | 15044.48 | 1312.02 | 2 | 1 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 4.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/07 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3375.30 | 37.35 | 1319.00 | 1181.00 | 65.16 | 9665.00 | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ...

Core Insights - Spot gold prices reached $3,380 per ounce on August 7, with a daily increase of 0.33% [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a 0.1% increase, with a real-time transaction volume exceeding 2.7 million [2] - The ETF's latest scale is 1.47 billion yuan, with a total of 18.9 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.4 million shares and a change rate of 153.19% [2] - The ETF closely tracks Shanghai gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to industry averages, supporting T+0 trading [2] - Current focus in the precious metals market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with several officials open to a shift towards easing monetary policy, providing strong support for gold prices [2] - The precious metals market may experience high-level fluctuations due to weakening tariff disturbances, with core issues revolving around U.S. economic data and policy paths [3] - Rising inflation expectations due to global tariffs may support precious metals if CPI data confirms accelerated cost transmission [3] - Long-term, the value of precious metals remains intact due to U.S. debt risks and the de-dollarization process, providing solid support for precious metals [3]

8月6日，沪金主力暂报784.02元/克，跌幅达0.04%，今日沪金主力开盘价782.80元/克，截至目前最高 785.82元/克，最低782.58元/克。 【宏观消息】 特朗普:未来一周将宣布药品和芯片关税，药品关税最高可达250%。将在未来24小时内大幅提高印度关 税。若欧盟不履行对美投资义务，将征收35%关税。 【黄金期货行情表现】 美国7月ISM非制造业PMI50.1，预期51.5，前值50.8。美国7月标普全球服务业PMI终值55.7，预期 55.2，前值55.2。 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为7.6%，降息25个基点的概率为92.4%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概 率为2.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为38%，累计降息50个基点的概率为59.2%。 【机构观点】 由于上周的美国非农数据意外爆冷，市场一度受到历史数据大幅下修和劳工局公信力下降的双重打击， 此前美国经济一直表现出韧性的"强现实"有所松动，最新公布的ISM和标普服务业PMI指向再次发生分 歧，但贵金属市场主要延续向弱预期的方向进行交易。美联储方面，有更多的官员的措辞转鸽，市场对 于未来的降息预期得到提振，美元和10年美债收益率走势偏 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent price movements of silver and platinum, highlighting their potential for a rebound in the context of precious metals investment [2] Group 1: Market Trends - Silver and platinum are experiencing a price increase, suggesting a potential catch-up phase compared to gold [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring market risks associated with precious metals investments [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider the dynamics of silver and platinum in relation to gold, as they may present unique opportunities [2] - The discussion includes insights on how to approach investments in these metals amid fluctuating market conditions [2]

Core Insights - Precious metals prices have significantly increased, leading to a surge in consumer interest and sales, particularly in platinum and silver [2][3] - The industrial demand for silver and platinum is a key driver of price increases, with applications in renewable energy and automotive sectors [3] - Geopolitical risks have heightened the safe-haven premium for precious metals, contributing to their price rise [3] Group 1: Market Trends - Platinum prices have risen from 223.77 CNY per gram at the end of 2024 to 314.56 CNY per gram, marking a 40.57% increase [2] - Silver prices increased from 7620 CNY per kilogram at the end of 2024 to 9201 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a 20.75% rise [2] - Retail outlets are responding to the demand by expanding their offerings, including platinum and investment silver bars [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Strong industrial demand for silver is driven by its use in photovoltaic systems, 5G technology, and electronic components [3] - Platinum is increasingly utilized in hydrogen fuel cells and automotive emissions control, leading to a growing supply-demand gap [3] - The recovery of the global manufacturing sector is boosting the overall demand for industrial metals, including silver and platinum [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is impacting the export of platinum group metals from Russia [3] - Instability in the Middle East threatens key mineral transport routes, further constraining the supply of silver and platinum [3] - Increased geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty are driving market participants towards safe-haven assets, raising prices [3] Group 4: Consumer Impact - Rising prices of precious metal products are leading consumers to consider alternatives like K-gold or gold-plated items [4] - The cost of renewable energy products, such as photovoltaic panels and fuel cell vehicles, may increase, affecting the overall transition to green energy [5] - Consumers are advised to carefully adjust their asset allocation in light of high prices and potential risks associated with investing in precious metals [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Since July, the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has cooled down the Middle East situation, weakening the impact of geopolitical conflicts on precious metal prices. The US tariff and trade policies are erratic, and Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has led to concerns about the Fed's independence. The COMEX gold futures price reached a maximum of $3451.7 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price reached a maximum of $39.91 per ounce. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future [2]. - Last month, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold [2]. - The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. The price of Shanghai silver is slightly rising in the short - term, and it is advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In terms of price changes, the spot price of London gold decreased by 0.06%, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.97%, and the Shanghai gold main contract price decreased by 0.69%. The spot price of London silver decreased by 0.04%, the COMEX silver futures price increased by 2.37%, and the Shanghai silver main contract price increased by 1.23%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.5%, and the total position increased by 1.74%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.09%, and the total position increased by 4.13% [4]. - Since July, the gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets has been continuously declining, but it is still significantly higher than the long - term average, indicating that the silver price is undervalued and has the opportunity to make up for the increase in the future [5]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals has decreased compared with last month. Affected by tariffs and interest rate cut expectations in July, precious metal prices showed a volatile trend [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index rose and then fell in July. The strong non - farm payrolls report in June strengthened the US dollar, but the uncertainty of trade agreements and Trump's pressure on the Fed weakened the US dollar. The weak non - farm payrolls report in July further weakened the US dollar [11]. - The real yields of the US 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds rose and then fell last month. Affected by the changing US tariff policies and the revised expectations of the Fed rate cut, precious metal prices fluctuated [13]. - In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year, both higher than expected. The inflation rebound, combined with the weakness in consumer spending and the labor market, has intensified the policy differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [18]. - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. Except for energy, the prices of other CPI sub - items increased year - on - year. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed maintained the interest rate in July [21]. - In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, lower than expected and below the boom - bust line. In June, the ISM service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than expected. In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, both exceeding expectations [24]. - In July, the US ADP employment increased by 104,000, but the proportion of consumers thinking that "jobs are difficult to obtain" reached a nearly four - and - a - half - year high. The non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a weak labor market [27]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July. There were two dissenting votes, indicating increased internal differences. The US tariff policy is erratic, and the trade progress has boosted the US dollar and market risk sentiment, while the uncertainty has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals [30]. - According to the World Gold Council's survey, 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which helps to hedge risks and promote RMB internationalization [31]. 3. Position Analysis - As of July 29, 2025, the net long position of CMX gold speculators increased by 21,600 lots to 223,600 lots, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold. The net long position of CMX silver speculators decreased by 4,000 lots to 59,400 lots [34]. - As of August 1, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.85 tons to 953.08 tons, and the holdings of SLV silver ETF increased by 187.66 tons to 15,056.66 tons. Overall, the capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs accelerated last month [35]. 4. Other Elements - As of August 1, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 38.7156 million ounces, a 4.5% increase from last month, and the COMEX silver inventory was 506.6616 million ounces, a 1.09% increase from last month [39]. - In July 2025, the global gold reserve was 36,305.84 tons, an increase of 31.55 tons from last month. China's gold reserve was 2,296.35 tons, an increase of 1.86 tons from last month. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver shortage is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [42]. - As the tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policy changes on precious metal prices will gradually weaken. The US economic data shows that inflation is moderate, and the weak non - farm payrolls data in July provides an opportunity for the Fed to restart a moderate rate cut. The precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The approach of the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of upward trend in precious metals [2]. - With the US employment market showing signs of weakness and the White House's increasing influence on the Fed, once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will gain strong upward momentum [35]. - The US dollar is in the early stage of a new downward cycle, and the prices of gold and silver denominated in US dollars have the macro - logic to rise continuously in the next 10 years [38]. - The current gold and silver markets are in the third - round bull market, and there is still significant room for price increases in the future [74][77]. - There is a high probability that shorting the gold - silver ratio will become a market consensus in the second half of the year, and silver may become one of the best - performing commodities [69][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In July, gold entered a low - volatility period. Shanghai gold had a cumulative monthly increase of only 0.35%, while London gold fell 0.72% with the lowest monthly volatility since April [13]. - Factors affecting the gold market in July included the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, the cease - fire in the Middle East, concerns about the Fed's independence, new tariff agreements between the US and Japan and the EU, and the "Genius Act" that diverted funds to cryptocurrencies [13][14]. Silver - In July, the silver market experienced a roller - coaster ride. London silver rose 1.44% with an amplitude over 10%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.5% with an amplitude over 9% [16]. - In the first three weeks of July, the risk appetite increased, and factors such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, strong non - farm payrolls data, and Russia's inclusion of silver in foreign reserves boosted silver prices. In the last week, factors like the decline in copper prices, the fall in gold prices, and the rise of cryptocurrencies led to a sharp correction in silver prices [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has declined by 10% since the beginning of the year. The "Lake Tahoe Agreement" aims to reshape the US economy by increasing tariffs and promoting manufacturing reshoring, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Central banks around the world are accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold holdings [21]. The Pennsylvania Plan - This plan aims to patch the flaws in the Lake Tahoe Agreement by shifting the demand for US Treasury bonds from external to domestic. It uses regulatory measures, tax incentives, and other means to encourage domestic capital to buy US Treasury bonds, with stablecoins as a financial innovation tool [22]. US Employment and Inflation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed resilience, but in July, non - farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised downward. Inflation has shown signs of rising, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [31][34]. The Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged since December last year. With the weakening of the US employment market, the influence of the White House on the Fed is expected to increase. Once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will rise [35]. The US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has a cycle of about 17 years, and currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle. The negative correlation between precious metals and the US dollar has been challenged, and a decline in the US dollar index will strongly boost the prices of gold and silver [38]. The Changing Role of Gold's Safe - Haven Attribute - Gold's safe - haven attribute has weakened, and future price increases may require a re - definition of gold, such as its role as an anti - inflation asset or a risk asset [41]. The Increase in US Treasury Bond Scale - The US federal government's debt is expected to continue to rise, and historically, an increase in debt has been associated with rising gold prices [44]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, the pace of central bank gold purchases has slowed down, but the total amount is still considerable. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, which will support gold prices [50]. Gold Investment Demand - In the first half of the year, gold investment demand increased significantly, especially the demand for gold ETFs. This growth offset the slowdown in central bank gold purchases and supported gold prices [53]. Global Physical Silver Supply and Demand - The supply of silver has been growing slowly, mainly due to limited growth in mined silver and recycled silver. The demand for silver in the industrial sector, especially in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, has increased significantly. The global silver market has been in a supply - shortage situation for four consecutive years, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2025 [57][60][64]. Silver's Undervaluation and the Gold - Silver Ratio - Silver is considered undervalued compared to gold and copper. The gold - silver ratio has been high this year but has started to repair since June, and this trend is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year [69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In August, gold is expected to break through and rise. The price of London gold is expected to be between $3250 - 3300/oz and $3500 - 3600/oz, and the price of Shanghai gold is expected to be between 770 - 780 yuan/g and 830 - 850 yuan/g [79][80]. - Silver may have a strong rebound. In July, although it adjusted in the short term, its medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged. The price of London silver is expected to be between $36 - 37/oz and $40 - 42/oz, and the price of Shanghai silver is expected to be between 9000 - 9100 yuan/kg and 9700 - 9800 yuan/kg [79][80].

| FERENS 贵金属日评20250804: 美国7月新增非农远不及预期, 市场预期美联储下半年或降息三次 | | | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-28 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | | 上海黄金 收盘价 767.18 766. 58 771.58 0. 60 -4. 40 | | | 持仓重 206334.00 207044.00 -710.00 210216.00 -3, 882. 00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.28 -3. 48 -2.78 0. 20 -0. 50 | | | 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -3.54 -3. 70 -3. 20 0.16 -0. 34 收盘价 8918.00 9008.00 9212. 00 -90. 00 -294.00 | | | 交易日期 2025-08-01 2025-07-31 2025-07-24 较昨日变化 较上周变化 收盘价 3342. 30 3416. 00 3371.30 73. 70 44. 70 | | | 伦敦黄金现货 伦敦金现 3346 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

长江期货贵金属周报 非农不及预期，价格具有支撑 2025/8/4 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 数据来源：ifind 长江期货有色产业服务中心 美国非农就业数据不及预期，前两月就业人数下修，9 月降息预期升温，美黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五， 美黄金报收3416美元/盎司，周内上涨2.3%，关注上方 压力位3460，下方支撑位3360。 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2024/01/02 2024/02/02 2024/03/02 2024/04/02 2024/05/02 2024/06/02 2024/07/02 2024/08/02 2024/09/02 2024/10/02 2024/11/02 2024/12/02 2 ...