Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations and declined, while platinum prices followed gold prices downward. The U.S. stock market faced significant sell-offs, with all three major indices closing lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded their largest single-day declines since October 10, indicating growing concerns over high valuations. Investors are increasingly worried about overvalued stocks, leading to profit-taking despite some companies reporting good earnings that did not meet "outstanding" expectations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously warned of a significant market correction risk within the next six months to two years. The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 35 days, matching a historical record, which has resulted in a lack of official economic data, making the market more reliant on private sector employment reports like ADP [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has resulted in the inability to release key official economic data, prompting investors to focus on the upcoming ADP employment report for economic insights. Additionally, there is a divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve officials on how to address the current data gap. The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August. The euro has depreciated against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a low of 1.1483, the weakest level since August 1. Despite the strength of other safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar has slightly declined against the yen to 153.60, while the yen remains near an eight-and-a-half-month low. Market strategists note that despite frequent discussions about the "decline of the dollar," it remains a reliable safe-haven asset during market turmoil. The shift in market sentiment towards safe-haven assets corresponds with the stock market decline and increased demand for government bonds. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar have come under pressure, dropping 0.8% to 0.649 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining interest rates and expressing caution towards further easing. The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations is a key driver of the dollar's strength, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 94% to 65% following last week's expected rate cut. The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, making the differing views among Federal Reserve officials on the economic situation a focal point for the market. Despite the recent strong performance of the dollar, the dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks are expected to continue driving funds into the gold market, maintaining an upward trend in gold prices. However, the influx of investment funds through ETFs has made gold prices more volatile [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, New York gold futures fell by $250.3 (5.7%) to $4,109.1 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in history. The downward trend continued into Asian trading on October 22 [3]. - Gold prices had previously shown a rare upward trend, with a significant increase following the announcement of the dismissal of a Federal Reserve official in late August. By October 7, prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce by October 20, an increase of nearly $400 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off in gold was exacerbated by speculative funds collapsing rapidly, as noted by a representative from the Japan Market Strategy Institute. The intensifying U.S.-China tensions and credit risks in U.S. regional banks have diminished concerns that previously supported higher gold prices [5]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that demand for gold is projected to reach approximately 170 tons in the April to June 2025 period, accounting for about 20% of total demand, a stark contrast to nearly zero demand in the same period a year prior. This highlights the increased volatility in gold prices due to investor fund allocation [5]. - Analysts suggest that the significant increase in gold ETF demand has become a potential source of selling pressure, contributing to the recent price drops in other precious metals like silver and platinum, which fell by 7% and 8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the perception of gold as a "safe asset" remains unchanged. Most analysts believe that the decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks will continue to drive funds into the gold market, sustaining an upward price trend [5]. - There is a notable shift in the perception of price stability, with experts indicating that gold prices are likely to experience significant fluctuations in the future [6].

Core Insights - Strong catalysts are driving gold prices higher, with current prices surpassing $4000 per ounce despite the strengthening dollar [1] - Demand for gold remains robust among investors and central banks, even as acquisition costs rise [1] - After a pause in July, central banks resumed gold purchases in August, indicating continued interest in gold as a reserve asset [1] Market Dynamics - Platinum has outperformed other precious and base metals, with a year-to-date increase of over 80%, while silver has reached a multi-decade high of $50 [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a growing crisis of confidence in fiscal and monetary order, particularly as major economies like the US and UK have debts exceeding 100% of GDP without plans for fiscal consolidation [1] - Traditional safe-haven assets are losing appeal, but recent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, US government shutdown hedging, and geopolitical tensions have led to a short-term surge in gold prices [1] Long-term Outlook - Although short-term factors may fade, long-term prospects for gold remain strong, with models predicting prices could exceed $4500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year under neutral assumptions [1] - In India, the cultural affinity for gold persists, with its collateral function supporting economic development, and institutional interest is growing alongside a continued weak dollar [1] - By 2030, gold is expected to become a primary reserve asset for central banks [1] Current Market Status - As of October 10, 2023, spot gold is priced at $3987.77 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.303% [1]