【环球网财经综合报道】近期随着白银价格迭创历史新高，部分华尔街对冲基金经理一面私下承认当前白银价格较合 理估值虚高逾30%，一面又不愿轻易离场。 星洲网近日发文称，白银和白金在2025年的表现都优于黄金，白银上涨147％，铂金上涨127％；带动白银涨势的原因 包括美国列入关键矿产清单、供给短缺、工业投资需求强劲但库存偏低。 文章还引用路透社报道，TD证券商品策略全球主管梅莱克（Bart Melek）表示："我们持续看到市场在谈论美联储3月 可能出现的降息，以及今年稍晚可能再一次降息。这些讨论，与市场可能面临关税和美国债务风险的疑虑相结合，推 动黄金、白银、白金和钯金走高。" 甚至有分析人士认为，随着美国银行机构"空翻多"，以及增量资金涌入逼空阵营，白银价格依然有较大概率在短期内 突破100美元/盎司。 但另一方面，在美联储倾向降息的背景下，芝加哥商品交易所连续调高白银期货保证金，能否遏制愈演愈烈的白银逼 空行情，尚有待观察。 ...

12月17日，近期全球金融市场波动加剧，NCE平台表示，美国经济在最新的一周内展现出极具矛盾的特 征。虽然最新发布的11月非农就业数据錄得6.4万人的增长，优于此前市场普遍预期的5.1万人，但这并 不能掩盖经济整体降温的底色。NCE平台认为，劳动力市场的局部韧性与宏观指标的疲软相互交织，使 当前的政策环境进入了一个极为复杂的调控区间。 从数据细节来看，市场分析人士认为就业市场的放缓趋势已愈发明确。11月的失业率意外上升至 4.6%，高于9月份的4.5%。NCE平台注意到，早前月份的数据修正进一步印证了增长动力的流失：8月 就业数据被大幅下修至负值（减少2.6万人），而9月的增长规模也由11.9万人修正至10.8万人。此外， 薪资增速的放缓也引发了市场担忧，11月平均时薪仅微增0.1%。相关调研显示，薪资增长不及预期将 直接削弱消费者的购买力，即便就业总量保持稳定，终端需求的承压也将倒逼经济增速进一步回落。 经济动能的减弱在制造业与服务业中表现得尤为直观。S&P Global的数据显示，12月综合PMI初值降至 53，低于预期的53.2。其中，作为经济支柱的服务业PMI从54.1下滑至52.9，制造业PMI亦同 ...

Economic Overview - The current economic fundamentals are at a delicate turning point, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, but underlying signals indicate a cooling trend [1][3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, suggesting a loosening of the previously tight labor market, adding significant uncertainty to future monetary policy directions [1][3] Employment Structure Analysis - Recent revisions of employment data indicate that growth momentum has been overestimated, with August's figures revised down to -26,000 and September's to 108,000 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1%, falling short of expectations, which may erode residents' real purchasing power amid inflation [4][5] Business Activity and PMI - The S&P Global Composite PMI index fell from 54.2 to 53, with the services PMI dropping to 52.9, reflecting a loss of momentum in business activity expansion [5] - Although all sectors remain above the 50 mark, the downward trajectory raises widespread concerns about the sustainability of growth [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with platinum emerging as a leading asset, surging 3.22% to $1,874.30, indicating its safe-haven asset characteristics and expectations of supply-demand gaps in industrial manufacturing [5] - Silver has slightly retreated to $63.795, but its substantial gains since August suggest that the current consolidation may represent a high-level bottoming process [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are hovering around $4,331.20, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as they digest conflicting information [6] - The rise in unemployment provides support for safe-haven assets, while the better-than-expected job growth suppresses bullish momentum [6] - The strong breakout of platinum and the high-level consolidation of gold create a market landscape driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand, with the metal sector's independent trends likely to be a focus in the near term [6]

虽然近期贵金属价格已创下新高，但前期上涨过快，可能导致短期整固。Heraeus报告显示，黄金从4月 到8月的横盘整理显示价格回调可能需要数月时间，而白银需求在部分行业受到高价影响，若黄金继续 上涨，白银仍有跟涨可能。此外，Easy Markets易汇表示，白金市场预计仍将紧张，但需求下降可能导 致赤字缩小，而钯金和铑金受燃油车销量下降影响，缺口可能同样减小。 在具体金价走势上，Easy Markets易汇认为，央行持续购买将是黄金价格的主要支撑。Heraeus数据显 示，全球央行今年的黄金购买虽高于往年，但仍低于过去三年每年超过1000吨的增幅趋势。通胀若维持 高位、实际利率下降，也将对黄金形成利好。投资需求方面，金条、金币及ETF购买持续增长，今年 ETF持仓增加14.7百万盎司，总量升至97.5百万盎司，但仍低于2020年的历史高位，为投资者提供进一 步增持空间。预计2026年金价将在3750至5000美元/盎司区间波动，而在价格回调期后，黄金仍有再次 上行潜力。 白银市场在2026年可能面临更多需求压力。Heraeus认为，光伏银需求可能因节约措施而下降，而高价 也抑制了珠宝及银器购买。Easy Mar ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, with the London spot price increasing by 5.8% on November 28, reaching $56.52 per ounce, more than double the price at the beginning of the year [2] - The rise in precious metals, including gold, is attributed to worsening investor sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][9] - The supply shortage of silver in London has eased but remains a concern, with market valuations still considered high [4][5] Group 2 - Gold prices also reached a near one-month high, with the London spot price hitting $4264.29 on December 1 [8] - Predictions suggest that silver prices could reach around $70 per ounce by 2026, with potential for even higher prices under certain conditions [5] - The market is witnessing a shift of funds from overvalued AI stocks to precious metals, as investors adopt a risk-averse stance [10][12] Group 3 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with nearly 90% of the market anticipating a rate cut during the upcoming FOMC meeting [9] - The trend of funds moving from AI stocks to precious metals is seen as a response to the volatility in AI-related investments [10][12] - The perception of gold and silver as "safe assets" is driving increased buying activity, particularly in the context of market uncertainty [12]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations and declined, while platinum prices followed gold prices downward. The U.S. stock market faced significant sell-offs, with all three major indices closing lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices recorded their largest single-day declines since October 10, indicating growing concerns over high valuations. Investors are increasingly worried about overvalued stocks, leading to profit-taking despite some companies reporting good earnings that did not meet "outstanding" expectations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon previously warned of a significant market correction risk within the next six months to two years. The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 35 days, matching a historical record, which has resulted in a lack of official economic data, making the market more reliant on private sector employment reports like ADP [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown has resulted in the inability to release key official economic data, prompting investors to focus on the upcoming ADP employment report for economic insights. Additionally, there is a divergence of opinions among Federal Reserve officials on how to address the current data gap. The U.S. dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August. The euro has depreciated against the dollar for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a low of 1.1483, the weakest level since August 1. Despite the strength of other safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, the dollar has slightly declined against the yen to 153.60, while the yen remains near an eight-and-a-half-month low. Market strategists note that despite frequent discussions about the "decline of the dollar," it remains a reliable safe-haven asset during market turmoil. The shift in market sentiment towards safe-haven assets corresponds with the stock market decline and increased demand for government bonds. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar have come under pressure, dropping 0.8% to 0.649 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining interest rates and expressing caution towards further easing. The shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations is a key driver of the dollar's strength, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 94% to 65% following last week's expected rate cut. The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, making the differing views among Federal Reserve officials on the economic situation a focal point for the market. Despite the recent strong performance of the dollar, the dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound trend [3].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks are expected to continue driving funds into the gold market, maintaining an upward trend in gold prices. However, the influx of investment funds through ETFs has made gold prices more volatile [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, New York gold futures fell by $250.3 (5.7%) to $4,109.1 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in history. The downward trend continued into Asian trading on October 22 [3]. - Gold prices had previously shown a rare upward trend, with a significant increase following the announcement of the dismissal of a Federal Reserve official in late August. By October 7, prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce by October 20, an increase of nearly $400 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off in gold was exacerbated by speculative funds collapsing rapidly, as noted by a representative from the Japan Market Strategy Institute. The intensifying U.S.-China tensions and credit risks in U.S. regional banks have diminished concerns that previously supported higher gold prices [5]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that demand for gold is projected to reach approximately 170 tons in the April to June 2025 period, accounting for about 20% of total demand, a stark contrast to nearly zero demand in the same period a year prior. This highlights the increased volatility in gold prices due to investor fund allocation [5]. - Analysts suggest that the significant increase in gold ETF demand has become a potential source of selling pressure, contributing to the recent price drops in other precious metals like silver and platinum, which fell by 7% and 8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the perception of gold as a "safe asset" remains unchanged. Most analysts believe that the decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks will continue to drive funds into the gold market, sustaining an upward price trend [5]. - There is a notable shift in the perception of price stability, with experts indicating that gold prices are likely to experience significant fluctuations in the future [6].

Core Insights - Strong catalysts are driving gold prices higher, with current prices surpassing $4000 per ounce despite the strengthening dollar [1] - Demand for gold remains robust among investors and central banks, even as acquisition costs rise [1] - After a pause in July, central banks resumed gold purchases in August, indicating continued interest in gold as a reserve asset [1] Market Dynamics - Platinum has outperformed other precious and base metals, with a year-to-date increase of over 80%, while silver has reached a multi-decade high of $50 [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a growing crisis of confidence in fiscal and monetary order, particularly as major economies like the US and UK have debts exceeding 100% of GDP without plans for fiscal consolidation [1] - Traditional safe-haven assets are losing appeal, but recent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, US government shutdown hedging, and geopolitical tensions have led to a short-term surge in gold prices [1] Long-term Outlook - Although short-term factors may fade, long-term prospects for gold remain strong, with models predicting prices could exceed $4500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year under neutral assumptions [1] - In India, the cultural affinity for gold persists, with its collateral function supporting economic development, and institutional interest is growing alongside a continued weak dollar [1] - By 2030, gold is expected to become a primary reserve asset for central banks [1] Current Market Status - As of October 10, 2023, spot gold is priced at $3987.77 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase of 0.303% [1]

中国白金市场竞争格局及投资商机分析报告2025-2031年 本文源自：中赢信合研究网 第一章 2021-2025年世界白金行业市场运行现状分析 第一节 2021-2025年世界白金行业发展概况 一、世界白金产业特点分析 二、世界白金主要饰品市场分析 三、世界白金价格工艺分析 第二节 2021-2025年世界主要国家白金行业市场分析 一、美国 二、韩国 三、意大利 四、法国 第三节 2025-2031年世界白金行业发展趋势分析 第二章 2021-2025年中国白金行业运行环境分析 第一节 2021-2025年中国宏观经济环境分析 一、中国GDP分析 二、消费价格指数分析 三、城乡居民收入分析 四、社会消费品零售总额 五、全社会固定资产投资分析 六、进出口总额及增长率分析 第二节 2021-2025年中国白金行业发展政策环境分析 一、产业政策分析 二、进出口关税的调整 三、相关行业政策影响分析 第三节2021-2025年中国白金行业发展社会环境分析 一、人口环境分析 二、教育环境分析 三、文化环境分析 四、生态环境分析 第三章 2021-2025年中国白金行业发展状况综述 第一节 2021-2025年中国白金行业 ...