Core Viewpoint - A strategic partnership has been established among Microsoft, Nvidia, and AI startup Anthropic, creating a tightly-knit "AI alliance" that involves significant investments and resource sharing, marking a further expansion of "closed-loop" investments in the AI sector [2][3]. Group 1: Partnership Details - Microsoft has committed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, while Nvidia has pledged up to $10 billion [2]. - Anthropic will purchase $30 billion worth of Azure computing power from Microsoft and has signed contracts for up to 1 gigawatt of additional computing capacity, all running on Nvidia's AI systems [2][3]. - This partnership has led to Anthropic's valuation soaring to $350 billion, indicating a significant shift in AI investment dynamics [2]. Group 2: Technical Collaboration - Nvidia and Anthropic will collaborate on design and engineering to optimize Anthropic's existing products for performance and efficiency [3]. - Anthropic's initial commitment includes acquiring up to 1 gigawatt of computing power based on Nvidia's advanced architectures, including Grace Blackwell and the upcoming Vera Rubin [3]. Group 3: Microsoft’s Strategy - Microsoft is expanding its collaboration with Anthropic to provide broader access to the Claude model for enterprise users, while maintaining its core partnership with OpenAI [4][5]. - Azure customers will have access to Anthropic's Claude models, enhancing Microsoft's position as an "AI platform company" [5]. Group 4: Anthropic's Growth and Infrastructure - Founded by former OpenAI employees, Anthropic has gained recognition in sectors like finance and healthcare, with a recent valuation of $1.83 trillion and 300,000 enterprise customers [6]. - The company plans to invest $50 billion in building custom data centers across various locations in the U.S. to support AI development [6]. Group 5: Market Concerns - The announcement of this partnership comes amid rising skepticism about the AI investment boom, with Nvidia and Microsoft's stock prices dropping nearly 3% on the day of the announcement [7]. - Concerns about a potential "AI bubble" have been raised, with 45% of fund managers viewing it as a significant market risk [9]. - The structure of this deal mirrors Nvidia's previous $100 billion investment in OpenAI, leading to doubts about the sustainability of such "closed-loop" financing models [9][10].

Group 1 - The current AI market in the US has entered a "gear-shifting" phase, with a focus on valuation adjustments and a more stringent examination of returns on investment (ROI) in the AI sector [2][4] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" stem from the gap between the optimistic expectations of capital markets and the time required for new technologies to generate economic scale effects [2][3] - The hard constraints affecting AI include physical limitations such as computing power, electricity, and algorithms, while soft constraints involve regulatory costs, organizational adjustments, and data quality [2][3] Group 2 - The AI sector has experienced adjustments due to macroeconomic tightening and concerns over computing power and algorithm efficiency, with historical comparisons indicating significant drawdowns during similar market conditions [2][3] - The report highlights that the debt pressure on AI infrastructure is currently manageable, but some companies are showing signs of divergence in their financial health [3][4] - The overall debt levels related to AI hardware have been slowly increasing, with a decline in the free cash flow to debt ratio, indicating potential future risks if revenue does not grow rapidly [3] Group 3 - The profitability of AI applications is uneven, with B2B applications showing higher margins compared to C2C applications, which generally remain unprofitable [2][3] - The report notes that the current AI penetration rate in US enterprises is around 10%, with expectations for growth in specific sectors such as information services and finance [2][3] - The anticipated total investment in AI by 2025 is approximately $3.8 trillion, with ROI sensitivity to GPU depreciation rates being a critical factor for future investments [2][3] Group 4 - The S&P 500 has seen a decline in earnings while volatility has increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics as valuations enter a digestion phase [6][8] - The report suggests that the profitability effect in the AI sector is expected to spread in 2025, although the proportion of valuation expansion is weakening compared to previous years [8]

Core Insights - Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic have formed a strategic partnership, creating a tightly-knit "AI alliance" with mutual investments and resource sharing [1] - Microsoft will invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, while Nvidia will invest up to $10 billion, leading to Anthropic's valuation soaring to $350 billion [1] - Anthropic will purchase $30 billion worth of Azure computing power from Microsoft, with additional commitments for up to 1 gigawatt of computing capacity based on Nvidia's AI systems [1][2] Group 1: Partnership Details - This marks the first deep technical collaboration between Nvidia and Anthropic, focusing on optimizing Anthropic's products for performance and efficiency [2] - Anthropic's initial commitment includes acquiring up to 1 gigawatt of computing power, utilizing Nvidia's advanced architectures [2] - The partnership allows Anthropic to access Nvidia's latest AI systems, including the Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin architectures [2] Group 2: Microsoft and Anthropic Collaboration - Microsoft is expanding its collaboration with Anthropic to provide broader access to the Claude model for enterprise users [3] - Azure AI Foundry customers will have access to Anthropic's Claude models, enhancing Microsoft's AI offerings [3][4] - Microsoft will continue to integrate Claude into its Copilot product suite, maintaining its core partnership with OpenAI while diversifying its AI model offerings [4] Group 3: Anthropic's Growth and Infrastructure - Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI employees, is recognized in sectors like finance and healthcare, with a recent valuation of $1.83 trillion after raising $13 billion [6] - The company plans to invest $50 billion in building custom data centers across the U.S. to support AI development [6] - Anthropic has also secured a deal with Google for up to 1 million AI chips, significantly enhancing its computing capabilities [6] Group 4: Market Concerns - The announcement of this partnership comes amid rising skepticism about the AI investment boom, with Nvidia and Microsoft's stock prices dropping nearly 3% on the announcement day [7] - Concerns about a potential "AI bubble" are prevalent, with 45% of fund managers viewing it as a significant market risk [8] - The cyclical investment model among tech giants raises questions about the sustainability and profitability of AI products [8]

【导读】纳指和道指跌幅超1%，亚马逊跌超4% 对美股科技股泡沫和美国经济前景的担忧引发美股齐跌。同时，美联储降息预期降温，股票市场承压。市场密切关注英伟达财报；拼多多业绩增速放缓， 股价跌超7%。 三大指数深夜齐跌 美东时间11月18日（周二），市场对科技股估值过高的担忧情绪继续发酵，美股三大指数集体收跌，纳指和道指跌幅均超过1%。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数下跌1.07%，报46,091.74点；标普500指数下跌0.83%，报6,617.32点；纳斯达克指数下跌1.21%，报22,432.85点。 宏观方面，11月18日，根据芝商所的美联储观察（FedWatch）工具，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为42.9%，维持利率不变的概率为57.1%。美联储到 明年1月降息25个基点的概率为48.2%，维持利率不变的概率为35.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.1%。 11月18日，美国劳工部官网显示，10月18日当周，美国首次申请失业救济的人数为23.2万人，10月18日当周续请失业金人数为195.7万人。 另外，根据ADP Research发布的数据，截至11月1日的四周内，美国企业平均每周减少约2500个就 ...

美东时间周二， 投资者对科技股估值过高的担忧情绪继续发酵，三大指数集体收跌，纳指和道指跌幅均超过1%。 （三大指数日内走势图，来源：TradingView） 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.07%，报46,091.74点；标普500指数跌0.83%，报6,617.32点；纳斯达克指数跌1.21%，报22,432.85点。 高企的估值以及为建设数据中心而不断累积的债务，使投资者开始质疑人工智能（AI）相关股票的定价。 一项最新调查显示，45%的基金经理认为"AI泡沫"是当前市场最大的"尾部风险"，并出现了对企业过度支出（尤其是AI项目投入）的担忧激 增。 AI芯片龙头英伟达下跌近3%，英伟达本月已下跌超10%，市场正等待其将在周三收盘后公布的三季度业绩。 Stovall补充道："如果行业龙头在发布好于预期的盈利、营收和利润率的同时，对未来给出非常乐观的指引，这将极大地稳定投资者的情 绪。真正的问题在于，'我们何时能兑现这些资本开支？'这不会发生在本季度或下季度，但预计不会太遥远。" 比特币周二跌破9万美元后反弹。由于许多科技投资者同时持有大量加密货币，此次回调引发市场担忧股市可能进一步下挫。 热门股表现 大型科技股普 ...

【导读】纳指和道指跌幅超1%，亚马逊跌超4% 中国基金报记者 储是 对美股科技股泡沫和美国经济前景的担忧引发美股齐跌。同时，美联储降息预期降温，股票 市场承压。市场密切关注英伟达财报；拼多多业绩增速放缓，股价跌超7%。 三大指数深夜齐跌 美东时间11月18日（周二），市场对科技股估值过高的担忧情绪继续发酵，美股三大指数集 体收跌，纳指和道指跌幅均超过1%。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数下跌1.07%，报46,091.74点；标普500指数下跌0.83%，报 6,617.32点；纳斯达克指数下跌1.21%，报22,432.85点。 | 美股指数 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 46091.74 | 22432.85 | 6617.32 | | -498.50 -1.07% | -275.22 -1.21% | -55.09 -0.83% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7793.00 | 24531.25 | 6627.75 | | +32.98 +0.42% | -347.75 -1.40% | -64.2 ...

当地时间周三盘后，科技巨头英伟达将公布最新季度财报。根据分析公司ORATS的测算，本次财报隐 含股价双向波动约7%，相当于高达3200亿美元的市值波动空间。 若这一幅度兑现，将改写英伟达史上最大财报后市值变动纪录。 分析人士普遍表示，作为训练大型语言模型和AI应用最核心的GPU供应商，英伟达不仅是一家芯片企 业，更是整个AI资本开支周期的"锚点"。标普500指数中，其权重接近8%，任何关于需求、利润率或供 应链的信号，都可能影响从半导体到超大规模数据中心，再到AI基础设施的更广泛市场情绪。 券商Susquehanna衍生品策略联席主管克里斯·墨菲（Chris Murphy）直言："英伟达的影响远不止市值波 动，它决定我们是进入下一轮扩张，还是开始消化前期涨幅。" 过去两周，科技股因估值压力回调，英伟达股价自10月底的历史高点回落约10%。部分知名投资者，包 括彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）旗下基金及软银，也在近期减持英伟达仓位，令市场更关注此次财报能否回 答一个根本问题：AI 热潮是在加速，还是正在降温？ 英伟达成AI周期"定价核心" 市场普遍预期，英伟达仍将公布强劲收入，但关键不在增速本身，而在于管理 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【美股连跌四天，英伟达跌近3%】 当地时间11月18日，美股三大指数集体收跌，道琼斯指数下跌498.500点，跌幅1.07%；标普500指数跌0.83%； 纳斯达克综合指数跌1.21%。 大型科技股多数下挫，亚马逊、AMD跌超4%，微软、英伟达跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%。 【普京：中国公民赴俄免签政策将于近期生效】 据环球网援引今日俄罗斯（RT）、俄罗斯卫星网报道，当地时间11月18日，俄罗斯总统普京表示，针对中国 公民赴俄免签政策将于近期生效。 报道称，目前，俄罗斯公民可以免签前往中国。 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆9月2日在例行记者会上表示，为进一步便利中外人员往来，中方决定扩大免签国家范 围，自2025年9月15日至2026年9月14日，对俄罗斯持普通护照人员试行免签政策。俄罗斯持普通护照人员来华 经商、旅游观光、探亲访友、交流访问、过境不超过30天，可免办签证入境。 这项交易体现出云计算和芯片供应商与领先AI开发商之间日益紧密的联系——后者再将资金花回在前者的服 务上。投资者对这类所谓的循环式AI交易愈发担忧，一 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia and Microsoft are set to invest up to $15 billion in Anthropic, highlighting the ongoing trend of partnerships in the AI sector [1][2] - The competitive landscape in AI is evolving, with Anthropic needing to secure capital to compete with players like OpenAI and Google [5][6] - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is anticipated to show strong guidance, with projected revenues of around $62 billion for Q4 [7][9] Company Developments - Anthropic has been relatively quiet compared to OpenAI, but recent partnerships are aimed at enhancing their infrastructure capacity [3] - Nvidia's CEO mentioned a demand of $500 billion for AI products over the next two years, indicating significant growth potential [8][9] - Nvidia's business in China remains uncertain, with no revenue currently modeled from that market due to ongoing trade relations [10][11] Market Dynamics - The trend of "circular AI deals" raises concerns about a potential AI bubble, but the focus remains on creating valuable products for end customers [4] - Major investors like Peter Thiel and SoftBank have recently sold stakes in Nvidia, but this is not seen as a negative indicator for the company's demand outlook [12][13] - The competitive landscape has not shifted significantly, with Nvidia still being the preferred choice for hyperscalers despite emerging competition from Google [14][15] Valuation Perspective - Nvidia's valuation is characterized as healthy but not overly cheap, with a free cash flow yield of about 2.5% compared to 10-year yields at 4% [17][18] - The growth potential for Nvidia remains strong, with expectations of mid-teens growth in free cash flow for the foreseeable future [17]

当地时间11月18日（周二），美股三大股指全线大跌，截至发稿，道指下跌1.22%，标普500指数下跌1.13%，纳指下跌1.72%。 | 0 03 | ~ 田 | 价格 = | 涨跌幅 = | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 | | 46022.88 | -1.22% | | .DJI | | | | | 标普500指数 | | 6597.16 | -1.13% | | SPX | | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | | 22317.03 | -1.72% | | .IXIC | | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | | 7654.06 | -1.37% | | .HXC | | | | 欧洲股市亦全线大跌，截至发稿，英国富时100指数跌超1%，法国CAC40指数跌近2%，德国DAX指数、意大利MIB指数、欧洲STOXX50指数均跌超2%。 经济数据方面，根据ADP研究公司周二发布的数据，在截至11月1日的四周内，美国公司平均每周裁减2500个工作岗位。 这一下降趋势表明，劳动力市场在10月下旬失去了增长势头。ADP在11月5日发布的月度就业报告显示，在此前两个月下降 ...