【导读】日韩股市开盘重挫，AI泡沫隐忧带累科技股走低 亚太市场，不平静！ 隔夜美股巨震，拖累日韩股市下挫。11月21日，日韩股市开盘集体跳水。 韩国KOSPI 200期货开盘下跌4%，韩国KOSPI指数跌超4%。 | 首尔综合指数 | | | --- | --- | | 指 HQ.KOSPI | | | 3870.21 -134.64 -3.36% | | | 11-21 08:29:00 | | | 今开 3908.70 最高 3911.55 | | | 昨收 4004.85 最低 | 3838.70 | | સ્ત્રે મથ 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 季Ｋ | 更多 | | 均价:3869.11 最新:3870.21 -134.64 -3.36% | | | 4171.00 | 4.15% | | 4087.93 | | | 4004.85 | 0.00% | | 3921.77 | | | 9838.70 | -4.15% | | 11:15 08:00 | 14:30 | | MACD ▼ [12,26,9] MACD:2.465 DIFF:-1.136 DEA:-2.368 | | | 16782 | | 对人 ...

【导读】日韩股市开盘重挫，AI泡沫隐忧带累科技股走低 中国基金报记者 晨曦 亚太市场，不平静！ 隔夜美股巨震，拖累日韩股市下挫。11月21日，日韩股市开盘集体跳水。 韩国KOSPI 200期货开盘下跌4%，韩国KOSPI指数跌超4%。 | | KIOXIA | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 285A.T | | | | | 量 746万 9428.0 | | 股本 5.41亿 市盈 " | 32.8 万得 | | | -1907.0 -16.82% | 换 1.38% 市值5.10万亿 市净" | | 월 □ 6.22 | | | 分时 モ日 日K | 周Ｋ | | 童家 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | 英1 9430.0 | 300 | | 13330.0 | | 17.60% | 拿1 9428.0 | 400 | | | | | 09:28 9436.0 | 100 | | | | | 09:28 9440.0 | 100 | | 11335.0 | | 0.00% | 09:28 9441.0 | 100 | | | | | 09:28 94 ...

黄仁勋在财报电话会上表态试图打消市场疑虑，但分析认为指望黄仁勋承认泡沫存在本就不现实——没有哪个"卖铲子"的人会告诉淘金者山里没有金 子。周四英伟达股价盘中反转走低，此前该公司发布的超预期财报曾一度推动股价上涨5%。 尽管英伟达第三季度营收同比激增62%至570.1亿美元，并给出强劲的第四季度指引，但投资者对AI估值泡沫的担忧并未完全消散。 周四英伟达股价盘中反转走低，此前该公司发布的超预期财报曾一度推动股价上涨5%。 财报公布后，包括AMD、博通在内的AI生态系统相关股票最初受到提振，但随后均随大盘回落。德意志银行分析师Ross Seymore虽认可业绩亮眼，但 指出股票"估值合理"，维持中性评级。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会议上直言： 有很多关于AI泡沫的讨论，但从我们的角度看，情况截然不同。 这一表态试图打消市场疑虑。然而，分析认为指望黄仁勋承认泡沫存在本就不现实—— 没有哪个"卖铲子"的人会告诉淘金者山里没有金子。 业绩超预期但仍存争议 英伟达本次财报表现超过了市场的最乐观预期。 公司预计第四季度营收将达到约650亿美元，显著高于市场预期。更引人注目的是，黄仁勋在华盛顿的演讲中透露，未来六个财季， ...

当地时间11月20日，美股三大指数上演"过山车式"行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指一度涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来， 以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 有分析指出，受"割裂"的非农报告影响，美联储降息预期进一步受挫，叠科技股高估值的担忧情绪卷土重来，投资者选择大幅抛售，VIX恐慌指数日内飙 升超11%。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，标普500指数跌1.56%，纳斯达克综合指数跌2.15%。 道琼斯 ▼ DJI 46856.75 开 46567.51 45752.26 7.29亿 45728.93 量 -386.51 -0.84% 低 相关ETF 2 道琼斯ETF 2.15% 跟踪度 100% > 分时 日K 月K 五日 更多▽ 时间05:00 最新45752.26 -386.510 -0.838% +1.56% 199.750V - - 0.00%- -46-138.770- 45420.790 -1.56% 22:30 05:00 标普500 SPX 6538.76 高 6770.35 开 6737.93 37.26亿 作 6534.05 t play -103.40 ...

格隆汇11月21日｜隔夜美股集体收跌，AI龙头英伟达一度在财报超预期的推动下上涨5%，但最终收跌 3%，市值一夜蒸发1429亿美元(约10169亿人民币)，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会上表态试图打消市 场疑虑。黄仁勋在财报电话会议上直言："有很多关于AI泡沫的讨论，但从我们的角度看，情况截然不 同。"但分析认为指望黄仁勋承认泡沫存在本就不现实：没有哪个"卖铲子"的人会告诉淘金者山里没有 金子。 分析师表示，英伟达在财报电话会议上"试图反驳几乎所有看空理由"，包括扩展定律、超大规模客户资 本支出以及主权AI等各个层面。投资者对AI泡沫的担忧并非针对本季度或未来几个季度，而是关注一 两年后资本支出能否持续增长。这些巨额投资终究需要产生回报。分析认为，如果AI投资真是难以持 续的泡沫，不能指望黄仁勋亲口承认，也不会从英伟达当前业绩或短期展望中看出来。 ...

盘前要闻 1、何立峰：持续推动外贸提质增效，打通全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 国务院副总理何立峰11月18日至20日到湖北、湖南调研。何立峰指出，持续推动外贸提质增效，完善高 标准物流体系建设，加力支持制造业高质量发展，加快构建全国统一大市场，进一步畅通国内国际双循 环。 2、估值担忧卷土重来叠加降息预期进一步受挫!美股上演过山车式大跳水 类型：市场 情绪影响：负面 美国9月强劲的就业数据进一步压低了降息预期，市场预计美联储12月降息的概率已降至不足40%。另 外，黄仁勋并未完全打消市场对AI泡沫的担忧。美股上演过山车式行情，纳指盘中一度涨超2%，但收 跌逾2%，大型科技股全线下跌，热门中概股普跌。 3、磷酸铁锂行业推进反内卷，行业协会将建议设成本红线规范报价 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 【美】约翰•博格《长赢投资》 机构观点 中国化学与物理电源行业协会将发布《关于参考磷酸铁锂成本指数及规范行业发展的通知》。该《通 知》建议，企业应将协会11月18日披露的行业平均成本区间作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开 展低价倾销。 4、商务部部长王文涛会见美国驻华大使，就中美经贸关系等问题交 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to operate smoothly in 2025, with convergence between the US and non-US economies, while asset bubbles and differentiation coexist [8] - The AI sector is anticipated to drive a "rigid bubble" narrative, reflecting strong expectations against weak realities, with risk assets and safe-haven assets moving upward together [8][9] - The macroeconomic foundation for the AI bubble includes stable global economic conditions, a low probability of a hard landing for the US economy, and a favorable liquidity environment due to ongoing interest rate cuts [8][11] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Strategy - The Hang Seng Index has seen a 29.15% increase in the first ten months of the year, indicating a bull market driven by valuation expansion and upward revisions in earnings expectations [12] - The potential return for the Hang Seng Index in a neutral scenario is approximately 22.92%, with an optimistic scenario reaching 33.83% [12][13] - The structural changes in the Hong Kong market, including the increasing representation of technology and new economy sectors, suggest a systemic elevation in valuations [12] Group 3: Transportation Sector Investment Strategy - The investment focus for the transportation sector in 2026 will center on four main lines: long-cycle shipping and aviation, resource products in conjunction with the Belt and Road Initiative, technology-enabled new tracks, and high-dividend asset value reassessment [14][15] - The shipping sector is expected to experience a long-term upward cycle driven by supply constraints and inflation elasticity, with key stocks identified for investment [15][18] - The aviation sector is also projected to improve due to supply-side constraints and increased demand, with specific airlines highlighted as investment opportunities [15][18]

Group 1: Japan's Economic Stimulus Plan - Japan is planning a significant economic stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 961 billion RMB) to help households cope with ongoing inflation, marking the largest stimulus since the pandemic [2][3] - The plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general spending and 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts, exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [2] - The total impact, including private sector funding, could reach 42.8 trillion yen, reflecting Prime Minister Kishi's expansionary fiscal and monetary policy stance [2] Group 2: AI Development Initiatives in the U.S. - Former President Trump plans to launch the "Genesis Mission," aimed at enhancing the U.S. artificial intelligence capabilities, which is considered a strategic priority akin to the Manhattan Project [4] - The initiative may involve increased research efforts in national laboratories and promote public-private partnerships, with a focus on establishing a unified AI regulatory framework [4] - The "Genesis Mission" follows previous challenges faced by the "Stargate" initiative, indicating a shift towards more government involvement in AI development [4] Group 3: Labor Insurance Regulations in China - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has released guidelines clarifying the recognition of work-related injuries, including cases of medical malpractice and injuries during remote work [5][6] - The new standards aim to broaden the scope of work injury insurance, reflecting the evolving nature of work environments, such as remote work [5][6] - The adjustments highlight a commitment to ensuring that new employment forms, like gig economy workers, receive adequate protection [6] Group 4: E-commerce Growth in China - China's online retail sales increased by 9.6% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, with significant growth in smart products and digital services [7] - The government has issued guidelines to boost digital consumption, emphasizing the development of AI hardware and software innovations [7] - Despite the growth in online retail, the overall consumer market remains under pressure, with mixed results from major promotional events like "Double 11" [8] Group 5: Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia reported a 62% year-on-year revenue increase to $57.006 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, surpassing market expectations [9] - The company anticipates fourth-quarter sales to reach approximately $65 billion, indicating strong demand for AI chips and cloud GPU products [9] - CEO Jensen Huang expressed optimism about the AI industry's growth, dismissing concerns about an AI bubble, and highlighted the ongoing demand for their Blackwell chips [9][10] Group 6: Kuaishou's Financial Results - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue grew by 14.2% year-on-year to 35.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit increasing by 26.3% to 5 billion RMB [11] - The e-commerce segment saw a GMV increase of 15.2% to 385 billion RMB, driven by growth in AI-related services [11][12] - Despite a slowdown in live-streaming revenue, Kuaishou's advancements in AI technology position it well for future growth in the content ecosystem [12] Group 7: Securities Industry Consolidation - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is set to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, creating a significant player in the securities industry with a capital scale exceeding 170 billion RMB [13] - This merger represents a new model for integrating smaller securities firms into larger entities, enhancing service capabilities across the industry [13] - If successful, CICC's market value could significantly increase, positioning it among the top securities firms in China [13] Group 8: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Chinese stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4% amid mixed investor sentiment [14] - Despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, the A-share market showed limited positive impact, with various sectors experiencing declines [14][15] - Investor concerns about potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve have led to a cautious market outlook, with heightened sensitivity to negative news [15]

昨夜， 英伟达的超预期财报叠加"金发姑娘"式的非农数据（新增就业超预期但失业率上升），双重利好。 美股三大股指集体大幅高开，标普500指数一度超过1.4%，纳斯达克指数更是飙升2.18%。 但到尾盘时全线重挫，标普500指数收跌1.56%，纳斯达克指数更是暴跌2.16%。 这种情况此前只发生过两次：2020年4月7日（新冠疫情冲击后）和2025年4月8日（特朗普关税冲击后）。 英伟达业绩利好昙花一现，同样上演高开后大跳水：盘中涨超5%后，收跌3%。 费城半导体指数从早盘大涨转为收盘暴跌近4.8%。 分析认为当利好消息都无法推动市场上涨时，这本身就成为了一个强烈的看空信号，触发了美股大规模的获利了结和技术性抛售。 美股上演四月关税风暴来最大盘中逆转 乐观情绪风云突变，美股上演"高开低走"大逆转。美股三大股指悉数转跌，并持续扩大跌幅。 最终，标普500指数收跌103.40点，跌幅1.56%，报6538.76点。 道琼斯工业平均指数收跌386.51点，跌幅0.84%，报45752.26点。 纳指收跌486.181点，跌幅2.16%，报22078.048点。 市场质疑英伟达："卖铲人"不会说山里没金子 盘前， 9月非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with strong earnings from Nvidia initially boosting market sentiment, but ultimately all three major indices closed lower due to renewed valuation concerns and diminished expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down by 3%, despite CEO Jensen Huang's comments on strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denial of an AI bubble [3][4]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 52,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, slightly above the forecast of 4.3% [3][4]. - This strong employment data has further lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December now below 40% [4]. Sector Performance - Walmart was one of the few bright spots, with its stock rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [4][5]. - The market is witnessing a shift of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive companies, as indicated by Walmart's performance [5]. Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5].