Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Confirmation" and was released on July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, Email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, Email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,490 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: LH2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan/ton; LH2511 is 13,635 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton; LH2601 is 13,820 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: LH2509 trading volume is 28,962 lots, an increase of 904 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 63,659 lots, a decrease of 1,152 lots; LH2511 trading volume is 8,241 lots, an increase of 2,423 lots, and open interest is 43,903 lots, a decrease of 271 lots; LH2601 trading volume is 5,875 lots, an increase of 2,340 lots, and open interest is 24,099 lots, an increase of 859 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 295 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton; LH2511 basis is 795 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; LH2601 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LH9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; LH11 - 1 spread is -185 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 30 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects price increases from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. Wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends recently [5] - In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]

黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 21 日 苯乙烯：反内卷情绪强，短期偏强 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【现货消息】 纯苯供需两增，苯乙烯供增需减，阶段性仍然以压缩利润为主。目前苯乙烯处于高产量、高利润、高 库存格局，仍然是空配为主。苯乙烯港口库存进入加速累库阶段。纯苯下游开工逐步恢复，产业逐步进入 补库存阶段，7 月检修损失量相对较多（虽然通过大量进口补充了国产损失），海外市场价格逐步恢复，短 期市场 5600-5700 仍然有支撑。重点关注压缩苯乙烯利润的头寸。（来源：《国泰君安期货周报》） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 昨日 | 前日 | | 变化 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,350 | 7,260 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upwards in a volatile manner; silver is expected to break through and move upwards [2][5]. - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][13]. - Lead prices are expected to strengthen as supply - demand contradictions gradually emerge [2][16]. - Tin prices are expected to weaken [2][19]. - Aluminum is expected to be slightly stronger with volatility; alumina sees an increase in capital positions; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - For nickel, macro sentiment boosts expectations, but the real - world situation limits the upside potential; stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate as the real - world situation and macro factors compete [2][28]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold and silver prices showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 0.10%, and that of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 1.17%. Trading volumes and positions also changed, with Shanghai Silver 2510's trading volume decreasing by 52,666 and its position increasing by 41,429 [7]. - **Inventory**: Gold and silver inventories changed, with Shanghai Gold inventory decreasing by 15 kilograms and Shanghai Silver inventory decreasing by 6,009 kilograms [7]. - **News**: There were various macro and industry news, such as Japan's political situation, trade relations between the US and Japan, and China's economic policies [8][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai copper main contract price increased by 0.76%, and the London copper 3M electronic disk price increased by 1.20%. Trading volumes and positions also changed, with the Shanghai copper main contract trading volume increasing by 19,103 and its position increasing by 3,763 [10]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 3,900 tons, and London copper inventory increased by 25 tons [10]. - **News**: Macro news included the Fed's possible interest - rate cut and Trump's tariff policies. Micro news involved China's copper imports and production in other countries [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai zinc main contract price increased by 0.79%, and the London zinc 3M electronic disk price increased by 3.16%. Trading volumes and positions changed, with the Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume increasing by 54,662 and its position increasing by 11,470 [13]. - **News**: The US plans to impose heavy taxes on Chinese graphite, which may impact the electric vehicle industry [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai lead main contract price decreased by 0.15%, and the London lead 3M electronic disk price increased by 1.72%. Trading volumes and positions changed, with the Shanghai lead main contract trading volume increasing by 893 and its position decreasing by 1,370 [16]. - **News**: There was news about the Fed's possible interest - rate cut, China's industrial policies, and a global supply shortage of refined lead in May 2025 [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 1 [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai tin main contract price decreased by 0.77%, and the London tin 3M electronic disk price decreased by 0.81%. Trading volumes and positions changed, with the Shanghai tin main contract trading volume increasing by 6,677 and its position increasing by 221 [20]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 70 tons, and London tin inventory increased by 55 tons [20]. - **News**: There were various macro news, such as Japan's political and economic situation and China's infrastructure project [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of - 1 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices and trading volumes changed. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main contract price was 20,510, and the Shanghai alumina main contract price was 3,133 [24]. - **Inventory**: Aluminum inventories in different regions changed, with the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remaining unchanged at 47.10 million tons [24]. - **News**: There were news about Trump's tariff policies and a large - scale hydropower project in China [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 0, alumina has a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price was 120,500, and the stainless steel main contract price was 12,725. Trading volumes and positions changed, with the Shanghai nickel main contract trading volume increasing by 8,473 [28]. - **News**: There were news about potential supply disruptions of nickel due to tariff threats, project progress in Indonesia, and environmental issues in Indonesia's nickel - related industries [28][30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **PX**: Unilateral prices are expected to be moderately strong with a bullish spread between the September and January contracts. Suggest rolling long positions in the PX calendar spread, and also pay attention to the strategy of going long on PX and short on EB/EG [3][5]. - **PTA**: Due to weak downstream demand and cost - related factors, TA prices will fluctuate. The spread between the September and January contracts should be traded within the range of 20 - 70. PTA is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, and the basis may stabilize and rebound. Consider strategies such as going long on PTA and short on PF [7]. - **MEG**: The September - January spread should reduce positions. Unilateral prices should be traded within the range of 4250 - 4450. The basis and spread suggest exiting the calendar spread long positions in the short - term. The upside for the unilateral price is limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral prices are moderately strong, and the 9 - 1 spread rebounds. The gasoline crack spread declines, and the Asian aromatics blending demand weakens. The toluene disproportionation profit is decent, and the PX - MX spread remains high [21][34][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production capacity utilization slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical in late July. Overseas, some plants have restarts and shutdowns. The apparent consumption in May was 355 tons, and the maintenance loss in July decreases. The import volume in May rebounded to 773,000 tons [55][59][64]. - **Inventory**: The monthly inventory in June decreased to 4.35 million tons [83]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit**: The calendar spread long positions should take profit. The basis rebounds from the bottom, and the processing fee is at a low level, with weakening profits in the polyester segment [94][104]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate remains stable at 79.7%. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang's new plant. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 270,000 tons, and is expected to rebound in June and July. The inventory has increased [107][115][135]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral valuation is in a range - bound market, and the spread weakens with limited downside. The profits in each segment decline month - on - month, and MTO and ethylene - purchased MEG production are in severe losses [141][149]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate decreased month - on - month. The import volume in June was 620,000 tons, and is expected to remain the same in July. The import profit is generally low, the visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has been increasing [156][160][167]. Polyester Segment - **Valuation and Profit**: No specific information on valuation and profit is provided. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate is 88.5% (- 0.3%). The production of polyester has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of filament yarn has increased significantly, while the inventory of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [171][178][180].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures rebounded after hitting the bottom this week, with the closing price of the main 2509 contract at 2314 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the good initial growth rate of US corn. In the domestic market, the auction volume of imported corn is decreasing, and the actual transaction is not ideal, with prices showing a slight downward trend. The decline has slowed down recently [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, with the closing price of the main 2509 contract at 2658 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. Affected by continuous losses in production, the industry's operating rate is at a low level, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. The decline has also slowed down recently [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn** - Strategy: Trade short - term [6][10] - Market review: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2314 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] - Outlook: High initial growth rate of US corn puts pressure on international prices. In China, auction volume is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak, with prices slightly weakening [7] - **Corn Starch** - Strategy: Participate short - term [10] - Market review: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2658 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week [11] - Outlook: Low operating rate due to losses reduces supply pressure, but demand is weak, and inventory has increased [11] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' September contract rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a total position of 1067675 lots, an increase of 36775 lots from the previous week [17] - Corn starch futures' September contract rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a total position of 261814 lots, an increase of 13950 lots from the previous week [17] - **Net Position Changes of the Top Twenty** - The net short position of corn futures' top twenty increased, with this week's net position at - 32519, compared to - 30902 last week [23] - The net short position of corn starch futures' top twenty increased, with this week's net position at - 13718, compared to - 9506 last week [23] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 178283 lots [29] - The registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 12334 lots [29] - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of corn is 2409.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price is + 95 yuan/ton [34] - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 2900 yuan/ton, with a slight decline this week. The basis between the September contract and the Jilin Changchun spot is 192 yuan/ton [38] - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread** - The 9 - 1 spread of corn futures is 70 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45] - The 9 - 1 spread of corn starch futures is 41 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [45] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn is 344 yuan/ton. In the 29th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 390 yuan/ton, narrowing 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [54] - **Substitute Spread** - As of July 17, 2025, the average spot price of wheat is 2441.33 yuan/ton, and that of corn is 2409.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 32.21 yuan/ton [59] - In the 29th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 179 yuan/ton, widening 40 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of July 11, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 83.8 tons, a decrease of 4.80 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 1.1 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 230.6 tons, a decrease of 29.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume is 60.2 tons, an increase of 18.40 tons week - on - week [49] - In May 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 19.00 tons, a decrease of 86.00 tons (81.90%) compared to the same period last year, and an increase of 1.00 tons compared to the previous month [67] - As of July 17, the average inventory of national feed enterprises is 31.34 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.19% [71] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory is 41731 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of May, the breeding sow inventory is 4042 million, a month - on - month increase of 4 million, and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75] - As of July 11, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit is 133.87 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets is 31.6 yuan/head [78] - As of July 17, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is - 72 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 373 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 480 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is - 111 yuan/ton [83] - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of July 16, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 427 tons, a decrease of 3.74% [87] - From July 10 - 16, 2025, the national corn processing volume is 53.78 tons, an increase of 0.11 tons from last week; the national corn starch output is 26.02 tons, an increase of 0.08 tons from last week; the operating rate is 50.29%, an increase of 0.15% from last week [91] - As of July 16, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 134.6 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.27% [91] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of July 18, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn is 9.54%, an increase of 1.87% from last week's 7.67%. The implied volatility has rebounded this week and is at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 18, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, while some futures such as silver, copper, and aluminum are also predicted to have a strong - side oscillation, and lithium carbonate and coking coal futures are expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to oscillate strongly on July 18, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2509 and 30 - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on July 18, 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2510 are expected to oscillate and consolidate on July 18, 2025, while silver futures AG2510 are likely to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, industrial silicon, and other base metal futures are expected to oscillate strongly on July 18, 2025 [3][4]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil, PTA, PVC, and other energy and chemical futures are expected to oscillate strongly on July 18, 2025, while lithium carbonate and coking coal futures are expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [4][7]. 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro - Information**: In June 2025, the unemployment rates of 16 - 24 and 25 - 29 year - old labor forces in urban areas continued to decline for four consecutive months. In the first half of 2025, the economic development of agriculture and rural areas was good, and the per - capita disposable income of residents in some provinces exceeded 20,000 yuan [9][10]. - **International Macro - Information**: The US retail sales in June 2025 rebounded strongly, and the initial jobless claims decreased. Japan's exports to the US decreased for three consecutive months. The EU proposed a new budget plan from 2028 to 2034 [13][14]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On July 17, 2025, the major index futures contracts showed a short - term rebound. It is expected that in July 2025, the major index futures contracts will oscillate with a slight upward bias [18][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 17, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed a short - term rebound. It is expected that on July 18, 2025, they will oscillate and consolidate [39][42]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On July 17, 2025, the gold futures showed a slight downward trend, while the silver futures showed a short - term rebound. It is expected that in July 2025, the gold futures will oscillate widely, and the silver futures will oscillate with a slight upward bias [45][53]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On July 17, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that in July 2025, they will oscillate widely or with a slight upward bias [56][61]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: On July 17, 2025, the major energy and chemical futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that on July 18, 2025, they will oscillate strongly or with a slight upward bias [101][110].

Core Insights - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is expected to support long-term demand for palm oil, leading to a stronger performance in the palm oil market today [1] Industry Summary - The palm oil market is currently experiencing a strong performance, influenced by Indonesia's biodiesel policy [1] - Analysts suggest that the short-term support level for Malaysian palm oil is noteworthy, indicating potential opportunities for buying on dips [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, trading suggestions, and factors influencing supply and demand. [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Currently in a multi - empty stalemate. OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance in the medium term, and there may be a supply surplus after the summer demand peak. Short - term: wait and see. [2] - **PTA**: PTA's operating rate has increased slightly, polyester inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has dragged down the spot price. With crude oil oscillating, short - term: wait and see. [9] - **Methanol**: The cost of coal is expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be weak. The port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2370. Suggestion: wait and see. [9] Metals - **Iron Ore**: The recent anti - involution policy has boosted the black market sentiment, and the supply of steel is expected to shrink. The fundamentals of iron ore have not shown obvious signs of weakening in the off - season. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Suggestion: buy on dips. [4] - **Steel Rebar**: In the short term, the rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly accumulating but still at a low level. The market has insufficient contradictions and driving forces. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate. [5] - **Silver**: The growth of US retail sales and the decrease in initial jobless claims indicate strong economic resilience in the US. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on precious metals. [14] - **Gold**: Although US economic data is strong, the US dollar has limited upward momentum. If the US dollar falls, gold may rebound, but the medium - term view is wide - range oscillation. [15] Agricultural Products - **Coke**: Coking coal prices continue to rise, and there is a strong expectation of a second price increase. Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [2] - **Pig**: Yesterday, the national pig price continued to decline, with a temporary oversupply situation. However, there is strong macro - bullish sentiment. Suggestion: trade within a range. [6] - **Palm Oil**: Supported by import costs, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the proportion of rapeseed meal in feed formulations is low. Suggestion: buy on dips. [7] Others - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: Second - quarter economic data exceeded expectations, and foreign institutions raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, which is bearish for the bond market. However, the recent stock market correction is bullish for bonds. The bond market is at a critical juncture near the 60 - day moving average. [12] - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The decline in money market interest rates is bullish for short - term bonds. The upward momentum of short - term bonds may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [14] - **Rubber**: There are still weather disturbances on the supply side, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has rebounded on the demand side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate strongly, but the demand has not significantly improved. [15] - **Polypropylene**: The supply is still abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The demand side has weak purchasing enthusiasm. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 7055. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [11] - **Soda Ash**: The float glass market has stable production and decreasing inventory, but the demand support is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1250. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - PX, PTA follow cost fluctuations; MEG has low inventory, and it's advisable to take long - short spreads when the price difference is low. Rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to be strong in a volatile market; asphalt will fluctuate within a range. Caustic soda has strong demand support and there are still expectations for the peak season. Pulp is expected to be strong in a volatile market; glass prices are stable. Methanol and urea will run in a short - term volatile state; styrene will be weak and volatile. Soda ash has little change in the spot market; LPG has effective cost support and may rebound in the short term. Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak. Short - fiber will be in a short - term volatile market; bottle - chip will be volatile in the short term, with a strategy of going long on PR and short on PF. Offset printing paper will run in a volatile state; pure benzene will be weak and volatile [2][11][12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6742，涨跌幅26；PTA主力昨日收盘价4714，涨跌幅0.17%；MEG主力昨日收盘价4372，涨跌幅0.48%。PX9 - 1昨日收盘价134，前日收盘价98；PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价66，前日收盘价50；MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价17，前日收盘价2 [5]. - **Market News**: An East China refinery reduced its PX load due to a fault; crude oil futures weakened on July 17. PTA device load increased to 79.7% by Thursday; MEG overall start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% as of July 17, with a decline of 1.37% compared to the previous period. A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement [5][6][9]. - **View and Suggestion**: The market is concerned about the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. PX supply is still tight. Avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. Pay attention to the compression of long - term PXN positions. PTA should also avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. For MEG, it's expected to be strong in a volatile market, and take long - short spreads when the price difference is low [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the night - session closing price was 14,885 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The trading volume was 333,832 lots, an increase of 99,586 lots; the open interest was 151,500 lots, an increase of 2,850 lots [15]. - **Industry News**: Rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas has intensified short - term supply disruptions, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has risen significantly. In May 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world were 149,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 11.22%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 732,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the trading volume was 69,387 lots, an increase of 11,938 lots; the open interest was 18,411 lots, a decrease of 2,292 lots [18]. - **Industry News**: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the short term, synthetic rubber will follow the rubber sector and be strong in a volatile market, but the fundamentals of its own industrial chain still face significant pressure [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Market Data**: BU2508's closing price was 3,649 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price was 3,663 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. BU2509's closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the night - session closing price was 3,643 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [22]. - **Market News**: From July 11 - 17, 2025, China's weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4%; a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons, an increase of 16.5%. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0% compared to July 14. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.827 million tons, an increase of 0.3% compared to July 14 [36]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The 09 - contract futures price was 2,484 yuan/ton; the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton; the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton; the basis was 141 [37]. - **Market News**: The price of the caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The high - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but the sales at high prices are not good after the price increase. The sales of low - concentration caustic soda at high prices have slowed down [38]. - **View**: Caustic soda is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient upward momentum, but it has strong cost support due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. It's advisable to take long - short spreads for the 10 - 1 contracts [39]. 3.6 Pulp - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the night - session closing price was 5,318 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan. The trading volume was 180,569 lots, an increase of 20,629 lots; the open interest was 141,751 lots, a decrease of 1,682 lots [44]. - **Industry News**: The average price of the imported pulp market has risen slightly this period. The supply - side port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas offer is declining; the downstream paper mill's start - up rate is stable and low, and the procurement is only for rigid restocking [45][47]. 3.7 Glass - **Market Data**: The closing price of FG509 was 1,092 yuan/ton, up 2.06%. The trading volume was 1,832,573 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,105 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 22 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 76 yuan [49]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass market remains stable with minor fluctuations. The selling prices in some Shahe markets have slightly declined, and the demand sustainability is uncertain [49]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 449,450 lots, an increase of 539 lots; the open interest was 653,886 lots, a decrease of 196 lots [52]. - **Market News**: The port methanol market fluctuated slightly this period. The traditional downstream demand in the port area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The inland methanol market showed regional differentiation [54]. - **View**: Methanol is expected to run in a short - term volatile state. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand has also weakened, with MTO having a neutral - to - low profit and traditional demand declining [54]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,743 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 137,230 lots, an increase of 10,358 lots; the open interest was 198,012 lots, an increase of 379 lots [56]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. In the short term, domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing a volatile trend [57]. 3.10 Styrene - **Market Data**: Styrene2507 was 7,260 yuan/ton; Styrene2508 was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; Styrene2509 was 7,221 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [59]. - **Market News**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, while the supply of styrene has increased and the demand has decreased. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation phase [60]. 3.11 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The closing price of SA2509 was 1,225 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The trading volume was 1,359,320 lots, and the open interest decreased by 39,415 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 25 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 46 yuan [63]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is running steadily and lightly, with flexible price transactions. The soda ash production device is running stably, and the production is at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the transactions are mainly based on demand [63]. 3.12 LPG - **Market Data**: The closing price of PG2508 was 4,078 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; the night - session closing price was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of PG2509 was 3,985 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the night - session closing price was 3,992 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [66]. - **Market News**: On July 16, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for August: propane was 549 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; butane was 519 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The expected Saudi CP for September: propane was 548 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; butane was 518 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [73]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of FU2509 was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of FU2510 was 2,878 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The closing price of LU2509 was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 1.38%; the closing price of LU2510 was 3,576 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [76]. - **View**: Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [76]. 3.14 Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Market Data**: The closing price of short - fiber 2508 was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of bottle - chip 2508 was 5,928 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [78]. - **Market News**: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber futures are in a volatile state. The factory offers are stable, and the discounts have been moderately increased. The polyester bottle - chip factory offers have been partially increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the market trading atmosphere is light [78][79]. 3.15 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Data**: The prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and other paper types in the Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged on July 17, 2025 [82]. - **Industry News**: The mainstream intended transaction price of high - white offset printing paper in the Shandong market is 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that in the Guangdong market is 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton. The social orders are in the off - season, and the dealers' inventory - clearing progress is average [83]. 3.16 Pure Benzene - **Market Data**: BZ2603 was 6,122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 16.4 tons, down 1 ton; the styrene inventory in East China ports was 131,060 tons, up 1,640 tons [84]. - **News**: As of July 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 164,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.75% and a year - on - year increase of 272.73%. The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 24.22% compared to the previous period [85].