Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观政策取向一致性。 "宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"，并且强调，"落实落细宏观政策各项措施"。中共中央政治局召开会 议传递了怎么样的信号？ （原标题：如何理解"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"？） 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议强调，做好下半年经济工作，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，坚持稳中求进 工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活 性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会 发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 从货币政策来看，王运金认为，下半年货币政策将保持适度宽松基调，加大调控强度，通过逆回购、 M ...

国债期货日报 2025/7/31 端在期货 | | 7月31日 20:30 美国7月失业率 美国7月季调后非农就业人口(万人) | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 8月1日 20:30 美国至7月26日当周初请失业金人数(万人) 美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that once fiscal policy is determined, its impact will be assessed [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan will continue to strengthen communication with the government [1] - A revision of the price forecast for the fiscal year 2025 will not affect current policies [1] - There is a focus on whether wage increases will become a norm [1] Group 2 - The trend of companies passing on costs is a point of concern [1] - The experience with bank stock holdings will be considered in evaluating ETFs [1] - It is difficult to predict when a judgment on next year's wage negotiations can be made [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that food inflation rates may decline and emphasized the importance of closely evaluating the impact of fiscal policy on the economy and prices while maintaining close coordination with the government [1] Group 1 - The potential decline in food inflation rates suggests a possible easing of inflationary pressures in Japan [1] - The Bank of Japan will not provide direct comments on fiscal policy, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - There will be a careful assessment of fiscal policy's effects on the economy and prices, highlighting the interconnectedness of fiscal and monetary policies [1]

Group 1 - The market currently reflects less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations of no more than two cuts in the next three meetings [1] - Morgan Asset Management still anticipates a policy easing from the Federal Reserve this year, likely in December, contingent on significant deterioration in the labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting marked the first instance in over 30 years with two dissenters, indicating a desire to be seen as effective rather than overly hawkish or dovish [1] Group 2 - Despite recent increases in inflation rates, the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has been limited, with the Fed viewing tariff-driven price increases as a level change rather than a persistent inflation driver [2] - The bond market's slight increase in yields reflects the pricing effect of policy easing, while the dollar has strengthened, suggesting a more hawkish interpretation of recent Fed meetings [2] - Morgan Asset Management believes that tariffs will drag on economic growth and contribute to rising inflation throughout the year, but fiscal policy's delayed effects will boost growth by 2026 [3] Group 3 - The narrow path to avoid recession and long-term inflation pressures is seen as favorable for risk assets, although it is premature to declare the removal of policy risks [3] - Morgan Asset Management prefers quality in stock and fixed-income portfolios and is looking for relative value opportunities outside the U.S., including Europe, Japan, and emerging markets [3]

Group 1 - European stock markets are recovering from a period of stagnation, with some stocks showing tactical overbought signals as investors recognize the region's investment potential [1] - Germany has announced a significant fiscal policy reboot, planning to allocate approximately 25% of its GDP to infrastructure and defense projects over the next decade, which is expected to boost economic growth in Germany and Europe [1] - The European monetary environment is signaling improved economic momentum, with inflation declining and more easing policies likely to be introduced, supporting local economic growth [1] Group 2 - Caution is advised regarding the strengthening of the euro and high interest rates, which could negatively impact European companies that derive most of their revenue from overseas [2] - Local European companies are showing stronger earnings momentum compared to multinational peers, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, banking, and construction, as well as defense stocks and utilities with high entry barriers [2]

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-31 财政货币发力，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径；7月LPR报价持稳，1年期LPR报3%，上次为3%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上次为3.5%。 2） 通胀：6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-07-30，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了3090亿元7天的逆回购操作。（4）货 币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.317%、1.501%、1.620% 和1.550%，回购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-07-30，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.34元、105.63元、108.30元、118.36元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为0.0 ...

Economic Outlook - The overall economic development is viewed more optimistically, with the second quarter GDP growth at 5.2%, indicating a strong performance against external uncertainties[1][7] - The meeting's language shifted from "external shocks increasing" to "reducing negative impacts from external uncertainties," suggesting positive signals in China-US trade relations[1][7] Policy Adjustments - Macro policy is now described as "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a continued loose policy stance but with less urgency for immediate action[2][8] - The focus is on improving the efficiency of government bond issuance and maintaining liquidity to lower financing costs, with a macro leverage ratio exceeding 300% in Q2[2][8] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - Emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to prevent idle capital while ensuring sufficient liquidity[2][8] - The likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year is reduced due to optimistic economic forecasts, although actual economic conditions may still necessitate it[2][8] Structural Reforms - The meeting highlighted the need for deepening reforms to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with potential policies aimed at optimizing capacity and stabilizing prices[3][9] - There is a shift in real estate policy focus from new developments to urban renewal, which may better stimulate demand in the existing housing market[3][9] Risks and Observations - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of concentrated credit events[3][9] - The third quarter is identified as a critical observation window for assessing the effectiveness of these policies and their impact on the economy[3][9]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum shows a slight fluctuation, the price of alumina weakens, and the price of cast aluminum alloy follows that of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,625, down 165 from T - 5; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,608, down 31 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts have different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 3.10%, down 0.08% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,326, down 29 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased to some extent [1]. b) Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 514,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1 and up 34,000 tons from T - 5. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,920.26, with a slight increase compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,271, up 26 from T - 5. The prices of imported alumina from different regions also show certain changes [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of changes, and the price of Yangquan aluminum bauxite has also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -291, and the prices of related products and inventory have also changed [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,610, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. c) Comprehensive News - The Chinese government will implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, and prevent and resolve risks in key areas [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slow economic growth, and Powell has not given guidance on a September rate cut [3].