Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - end supply of meal products is under pressure, and the prices of meal products continue to correct. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean meal price may face a certain downward pressure. The rapeseed meal price is expected to be affected and run at a low price difference. The monthly spread of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, and the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited. It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach for trading strategies [2][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean futures rebounded due to the postponement of tariff hikes. The domestic soybean meal futures declined as the import cost of Brazilian soybeans continued to fall, and the near - end export pressure in Brazil increased. The performance of soybean meal futures was stronger than that of rapeseed meal futures. The near - month spread of soybean meal fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month spread of rapeseed meal declined due to concerns about increased supply in the future [2] Fundamental Analysis International Market - The near - end pressure in the international soybean market is relatively limited. The US soybean exports are in good condition, and although the recent crushing performance is average, the overall demand is good. Brazil's sales enthusiasm has increased due to the rise in domestic soybean prices and exchange - rate changes, and the supply has improved. The export inspection data support the US soybean export demand, and Brazil's crushing data also provide obvious support. In the long - term, the rebound in US soybean prices is beneficial to the improvement of planting profits, but the slow progress of new - crop sales still requires attention [3] Domestic Market - The domestic market is currently in a state of tight supply and demand, with low soybean arrivals and crushing volumes, but the downstream demand is also average. The spot market has shown a phased improvement. As the subsequent soybean arrivals increase and the downstream may have a certain inventory - building motivation, the market is expected to remain stable. As of April 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.0301 million tons, the operating rate was 28.96%, the soybean inventory was 2.9043 million tons, an increase of 17.15% from last week and a decrease of 12.05% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 579,100 tons, a decrease of 22.58% from last week and an increase of 93.03% year - on - year. The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has weakened significantly recently, and the inventory - reduction speed of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has gradually slowed down. It is expected that rapeseed meal will operate weakly and remain stable in the near - end [4][5] Macro - environment - Trump postponed the tariff hikes on other countries, but the subsequent negotiations will continue. At the same time, China and the US imposed additional tariffs on each other again. The EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods that were previously subject to US tariffs, and the soybean tariff will be implemented from December 1 [5] Logical Analysis - The rebound of the real has led to a further decline in the import cost of Brazilian soybeans, weakening the upward momentum of soybean meal. Although the loss of US soybean planting profits may lead to a decrease in the planting area in the long - term, the recent rebound in US soybean prices and the long time until the next planting season make it difficult to support a significant rise in the soybean futures. Therefore, soybean meal may face a certain downward pressure, and the rapeseed meal futures are also expected to be affected. The monthly spread of soybean meal lacks driving factors and is expected to fluctuate, while the deep - decline space of the monthly spread of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to take a phased wait - and - see approach - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Buy call options (The views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, affected by the global market shock, black - series commodity futures fell collectively. Currently, steel mills are still in the resumption cycle, which provides some support for iron ore prices in the short term. However, considering that trade frictions will significantly impact market risk appetite and finished - product valuations, the progress of steel mill resumption may slow down further, and iron ore may have a large correction space. Meanwhile, the market has begun to expect relevant policies to support domestic demand, which may interfere with unilateral trading [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all decreased. Rebar closed at 3083 yuan/ton, down 2.59%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3261 yuan/ton, down 3.06%; iron ore closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, down 3.36%; coking coal and coke also closed weakly [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 22.08%. The daily average pig iron output was 238.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. Terminal demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces continued, supporting the actual demand for iron ore. However, due to recent global trade friction escalation, the market is not optimistic about the future steel mill production expectations [1]. Supply - From March 31 to April 6, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.531 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.739 million tons. The latest arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.591 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.132 million tons. The overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume continued to decline. The iron ore supply tightened slightly, which may support the futures price. The port iron ore inventory decreased, and the port clearance volume increased, which also had a positive impact on the market sentiment. Overall, the current iron ore supply pressure has eased slightly [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary - Currently, steel mills are in the resumption cycle, which supports iron ore prices in the short term. But due to trade frictions, the steel mill resumption progress may slow down, and iron ore may correct significantly. It is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [1].

01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油06(BMD) | 4420. 00 | 2. 48 | | | 布伦特06(ICE) | 72. 54 | -1. 10 | -0. 33 | | 美原油05 (NYMEX) | 69.04 | -1.24 | -0. 56 | | 美豆05 (CBOT) | 1022. 25 | 0. 64 | 1. 01 | | 美豆粕05(CBOT) | 293. 10 | -0. 31 | 0.55 | | 美豆油05(CBOT) | 45. 20 | 2. 12 | 2. 12 | 2025/3/31 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】PAN巴西大豆收割进度达81.31% 阿根廷农户大豆销售进度预计达17.3%-18.1% 20250331 【国富期货早间看点】PAN巴西大豆收割进度达81.31% 阿根廷农户 大豆销售进度预计达17.3%-18.1% 20250331 国富研究 国富研究 2025年03月31日 07:20 上海 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 ...

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around potential supply shortages of toilet paper in the U.S. due to proposed tariffs on imported wood and pharmaceuticals by former President Trump, which could disrupt the supply of pulp necessary for toilet paper production [2][3] - The previous toilet paper crisis was linked to panic buying during the pandemic, highlighting how external factors can lead to sudden demand spikes and supply chain disruptions [3] - Trump's tariff policy is seen as a form of trade protectionism aimed at encouraging domestic production, but it risks harming consumer interests and could lead to unintended consequences such as trade friction [6] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could significantly increase the cost of imported wood, which is essential for pulp production, leading to higher prices for toilet paper or reduced production [2][6] - The stable demand for toilet paper juxtaposed with potential supply constraints could create a scenario of scarcity, reminiscent of previous toilet paper shortages [2][3] - The situation illustrates the complexities of trade policies, where attempts to protect domestic industries may inadvertently affect essential consumer goods [6][8]

行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 2 月 18 日 有色金属周度观察 周度有色指数表现 上周（20250210-20250216）有色金属板块涨跌幅为-0.2%，在中信 行业指数中，涨跌幅按大小排第 28 位。分板块看，上周涨跌幅表现较 好的是铜 1.5%；表现较差的稀土及磁性材料-2.9%。从公司表现看， 上周涨跌幅从大到小排列，居前的为中润资源 16.9%、电工合金 6.0%、 博迁新材 5.9%、银邦股份 5.7%、西部黄金 5.7%；居后的为云路股份 -12.1%、英洛华-8.0%、玉龙股份-7.3%、楚江新材-6.2%、金力永滋- 6.1%。 有色行业周度观察 贵金属主要是黄金和白银，根据最新数据（20250210-20250216）， SHFE 黄金区间涨跌幅为 1.4%，SHFE 白银涨跌幅为 2.4%。 工业金属品种价格 上 涨 居 多 。 具体看， 六大工业金属 品 种 （20250210-20250216）区间涨跌幅如下：（以期货收盘价-活跃合约 为指标计算）：阴极铜为 0.9%，铝 0.8%，铅为-0.2%，锌 1.3%，锡为 0.6%，镍为-2.3%。 稀有金属的区间（2025021 ...