| 13:29 | "il"il ? ZD | | --- | --- | | 招商中证半导体产业 ETF发起式联接 C 详情 020465 | | | 5,120.17 | | | 昨日收益 1 ○ 持有收益 1 | 持有收益率 1 | | 0.00 +120.16 | +2.40% | | 最新净值12-19 2.1244 日涨幅 | -0.33% | | 持有成本单价 2.0745 累计收益 | +120.17 | | 全部份额 2,410.17 可用份额 | 2,410.17 | | 持合收益 1 = +120.17 持仓收益率 1 +2.40% | | | = 交易记录 ¥)收益明细 | 1 定投计划 | | 招商基金财富号 | 机构主页 > | | 市场 春季躁动在即,小微盘机会来了? | 12-19 | | "宽财政+宽货币"主基调或延续 | | | **** = * * | | 半导体需求广泛，尤其是AI芯片和车规级半导体需求大增，再加上国家政策支持和国家大基金的持续投入，引导社会资本参与。今天继续买入1000元招商 中证半导体产业ETF联接C（020465），把握后市机会。 | 交易概览 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the IPO of Birun Technology, a leading domestic GPU company, which aims to reshape the valuation landscape of domestic GPUs in the context of increasing AI computing power demand and accelerated domestic substitution [1][10]. Group 1: IPO Details - Birun Technology plans to issue 247.69 million shares at a price range of HKD 17.00 to 19.60 per share, raising an estimated total of HKD 4.21 to 4.85 billion [1]. - The cornerstone subscription for the IPO has seen unprecedented enthusiasm, with 23 top investment institutions planning to subscribe for HKD 28.99 billion, resulting in a cornerstone subscription ratio of approximately 64% [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Birun Technology has focused on original core architecture since its establishment in 2019, achieving a global breakthrough in Chiplet technology and developing high-performance chips with a computing density of 10 PFLOPS per chip using a 7nm process [2]. - The company has built a comprehensive software platform, BIRENSUPA, which supports major open-source frameworks, significantly reducing customer migration costs and fostering a collaborative innovation ecosystem [2]. Group 3: Patent and Product Pipeline - As of December 15, Birun Technology has applied for over 1,500 patents globally, ranking first among Chinese general GPU companies, with a 100% authorization rate for invention patents [3]. - The company has a clear and forward-looking product pipeline, with the next-generation flagship product, Birun™ 20X series, expected to be commercialized in 2026, which is a key focus for the market [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Birun Technology's revenue surged from CNY 500,000 in 2022 to CNY 337 million in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 675 times [6]. - The company holds five framework sales agreements and 24 sales contracts valued at CNY 1.241 billion, providing a solid foundation for short-term performance growth [6]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - Birun Technology's listing in Hong Kong fills a gap in the market for pure GPU companies, providing a rare hard-tech asset and enhancing the capital layout of the AI industry [7]. - The company's strong technological originality and comprehensive product pipeline position it for a potential upward valuation breakthrough, especially with the anticipated commercialization of the Birun™ 20X series [7][8]. Group 6: Investment Considerations - Investors are encouraged to focus on three core logics: technological certainty, product growth potential, and the scarcity of domestic substitution opportunities [8]. - The commercialization of the Birun™ 20X series is expected to unlock significant growth potential, supported by a solid order backlog of CNY 12.41 billion [8][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary findings of a countervailing investigation against imported dairy products from the EU, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic dairy industry in China. A temporary countervailing duty will be implemented starting December 23, 2025 [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement (Document No. 83 of 2025) revealed that imported dairy products from the EU are subsidized, leading to significant harm to the domestic dairy industry. The State Council Tariff Commission will impose temporary countervailing duties starting December 23, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The countervailing investigation was initiated following a request from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association in July 2024. The investigation confirmed that the subsidization of EU dairy products has resulted in increased inventory and a shift from profit to loss for domestic producers. The subsidy rates for sampled companies ranged from 21.9% to 42.7% [4]. Market Opportunities - The reliance on EU imports for various dairy products presents opportunities for domestic alternatives. In 2024, the B-end market for cheese, cream, and butter is projected to reach approximately 27.4 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.6% over the past decade. Key recommended companies include Miaokelando, Yili, Mengniu, New Dairy, and Lihai Foods [4]. Raw Milk Price Outlook - There is an expectation for a turning point in raw milk prices, as domestic fresh milk prices have decreased significantly while international prices for bulk powder have shown an upward trend. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to stabilize by 2026, with recommendations for companies like Youran Dairy and Modern Dairy [4].

国产GPU龙头沐曦股份今日上市，盘中股价拉升大涨超700%，总市值一度超越3400亿元，超越另一家 明星公司摩尔线程。惊人表现成为市场新焦点，沐曦引发的"造富效应"正在点燃市场对硬科技板块的情 绪。 目前上游半导体设备板块多股拉升、龙头股活跃。华峰测控涨3.40%，华海诚科涨2.51%，晶升股份、 中微公司、寒武纪、海光信息涨超1%，对以上个股均有布局的半导体设备ETF(561980) 盘中翻红上涨 0.31%。 【产业链深度剖析】 3、设备环节确定性受益：晶圆厂扩产的第一步且最大成本项，就是购买光刻、刻蚀、薄膜沉积等核心 设备。设备采购具有强制性和前置性，这使得半导体设备公司往往是芯片产业较为确定、直接的"卖水 人"。 据了解，半导体设备ETF（561980）跟踪中证半导，标的指数中"设备"含量将近6成，集中布局设备、 材料、设计、制造等中上游卖铲子领域，或为布局国产替代攻坚领域的理想指数化工具。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、设计突破引领需求：沐曦等GPU设计公司的成功，证明了国产高端芯片的市场可行性与迫切需求， 后续大概率会转化为对晶圆制造产能的巨量需求。 2、制造扩产创造订单：无论芯片设计多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, with an upward adjustment in profit forecasts for key companies like Yili and Mengniu [13]. Core Insights - The dairy industry in China is experiencing a prolonged down cycle in raw milk prices due to rigid supply and weak demand, with prices expected to fall below production costs by July 2024 [1][2]. - The core dairy product categories have seen a decline in both volume and price since 2021, leading companies to adopt discount promotions to reduce inventory, further lowering raw milk purchase prices [1][4]. - The potential for a market reversal in raw milk prices may arise from the active elimination of high-yield farms and the loss of cost-effectiveness of imported bulk powder [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2018 to 2021, China's milk production increased, with fresh milk prices growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%, while imported milk powder prices fell by 5% [1][2]. - The current supply-demand imbalance is exacerbated by high production costs and a significant number of farms facing prolonged losses [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy product consumption is growing rapidly, with fresh milk accounting for approximately 45% of this market, although it is currently dominated by imported brands [6]. - Domestic companies are accelerating their entry into the B-end market, benefiting from policy support and cost advantages [6]. Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable decline in demand for high-consumption categories like ambient milk and yogurt, with significant inventory pressures prompting companies to discount products [4][10]. - The trend towards low-temperature and health-oriented products is evident, with flavored milk beverages emerging as a new growth point [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Yili has a stronger channel bargaining power compared to Mengniu, with a more efficient deep distribution model and a diversified strategy that has led to leading market shares in several segments [12]. - The report predicts stable performance for liquid milk over the next 2-3 years, while non-liquid dairy products are expected to achieve double-digit growth [13].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to see stable growth in 2026, driven by technology empowerment and policy support, particularly in the mid-cap blue-chip and robotics sectors [2][3] - The implementation of anti-involution policies is improving cash flow and profitability across the industry, especially in general equipment and engineering machinery [1][2] Key Points on Specific Sectors Mid-Cap Blue-Chip - Mid-cap blue-chip companies are anticipated to perform well due to improved growth and profitability in the mechanical sector, alongside reduced market risks from recovering downstream demand [3][4] - The forklift market is expected to benefit from urbanization and an aging population, leading to increased demand for machinery to replace human labor [3][10] Lithium Battery Equipment - Revenue growth for lithium battery equipment is improving quarterly, with new orders increasing significantly, showing a 70%-80% growth in backlog orders compared to last year [6] - The push for solid-state battery production by 2027 indicates strong future demand for equipment [6] Industrial Mother Machines - Industrial mother machines are expected to see stable production and revenue growth, with potential improvements in margins due to increased sales of large machines [7][8] - The domestic market shows significant potential for replacing imported high-end machines, indicating a shift towards higher-end development [8] Oil and Gas Equipment - Demand for oil and gas equipment is projected to improve in 2026, driven by increased capital expenditure in China and the U.S. government's push for oil and gas development [9] - The demand for natural gas from data centers is expected to expand the business opportunities for oil and gas equipment companies [9] Forklift Equipment - The forklift market has shown resilience, with strong growth in both domestic sales and exports, expected to continue into 2026 [10] - The introduction of new products like unmanned forklifts is anticipated to provide additional growth points [10][11] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of growth, particularly in the domestic market, with expectations for sustained demand starting in 2026 [13][14] - The trend towards electrification and automation is expected to increase average selling prices and profit margins [14] Coal Machinery - The coal machinery sector is expected to see a narrowing of declines in 2026, supported by policy initiatives and a peak in equipment replacement cycles [15] - The development of smart coal machinery and unmanned mining technologies is anticipated to accelerate growth in this sector [15] Light Industry Equipment - The light industry equipment sector, including textiles and accommodation, is expected to experience a slight slowdown in growth due to weakening consumer demand in Europe and the U.S. [16] - AI integration in equipment, such as sewing machines and injection molding machines, is identified as a key growth area [16] Robotics - The robotics sector is characterized by certainty in production opportunities, with significant developments expected from companies like Tesla and others with high barriers to entry [17] - Companies with clear business models and cash flow are seen as having substantial investment potential in the robotics field [17] Conclusion - The mechanical industry is poised for growth in 2026, with various sectors showing potential for investment opportunities driven by technological advancements and supportive policies. The focus on mid-cap blue-chip companies, lithium battery equipment, and robotics highlights the evolving landscape of the industry.

半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备科技主线 20251222 摘要 半导体设备行业在 2025 年经历订单增速放缓的小年后，预计 2026 年 将迎来加速增长，订单增速有望达到 50%，主要受益于全球 AI 大潮推 动的存储扩产和 AI 芯片先进制程需求。 国内存储厂商长存和长鑫正积极扩产，目标是达到全球 20%-30%的市 场占有率，每年新增产能预计接近 15 万片。同时，国内 AI 大算力芯片 需求巨大，存在显著的扩产需求，共同推动半导体设备行业增长。 半导体设备板块的估值应从关注当期利润转向关注明年订单情况，采用 PS 估值法，目前板块 PS 倍数处于合理区间。保守预测显示，部分股票 有三倍以上的增长空间。 短期内，长存和长鑫的 IPO 进展以及全球存储价格走势是值得关注的产 业催化事件。存储价格预计至少上涨至 2026 年底，将推动国内企业加 快扩产。同时，AI 大算力芯片需求及相关进口数据也需密切关注。 在选择投资标的时，应优先考虑与两存及先进制程关联度高、确定性强 的个股，如北方华创和中微公司。同时，可关注具备弹性、边际变化显 著或具有突破潜力的新兴公司，如拓荆科技和威导纳米。 Q&A 2 ...

埃斯顿 20251222 摘要 埃斯顿预计全年收入达 52 亿元，核心零部件业务略降，工业机器人业 务增长迅猛，尤其在汽车、电子、锂电行业表现突出，预计出货量达 3.5 万台，首次超越外资品牌，中大负载机器人出货量显著增加。 国内市场增速占比提升至 70%，导致整体毛利率下滑，但 Q3 国内毛利 率环比提升约 3 个百分点，预计全年毛利率达 29%左右。归母净利润预 计 6,000 万元，受股权激励计划影响，经营现金流转正并大幅增长。 海外市场方面，自动化出海业务收入约 1 亿元，主要集中在欧洲、东南 亚和东亚市场。波兰厂房一期已投建，预计 2026 年底前完成，未来将 加强海外渠道建设，以中国作为中央厨房概念运营海外多品牌餐厅模式。 公司预计 2026 年收入同比增长 20%至 63 亿元，全球出货量达 4.5 万 台，毛利率提升至 31%，净利润率达 5%。受益于费用管控及港股上市 后的财务费率压降措施。 克鲁斯品牌订单快速增长，预计 2025 年收入增速超 10%，并贡献相应 利润。麦子公司海外集成业务表现超预期，国内集成业务受益于宁德时 代国内外产能规划，业务增长显著。 Q&A 请回顾一下埃斯顿在 2 ...

三祥新材 20251222 摘要 三祥新材电容氧化锆产能全球领先，达 26,000 吨，市占率超 30%，年 出货量约 1.6-1.7 万吨。工业级海绵锆产能 3,000-3,500 吨，预计 2025 年出货 3,000 吨，占全球市场 50%以上，国内超 70%。 公司计划 2025 年投产 1,300 吨核级海绵锆项目，已获法国法马通 150 吨及国内 700 吨国家收储订单共 850 吨。预计 2026 年合金海绵锆业务 持续增长，法马通上半年订单接近 2025 年全年水平，并积极拓展海外 及国内市场。 三祥新材在 2024-2025 年间突破锆铪分离技术，实现 5 个 9 以上高纯 度，计划 2026 年二季度全面投产，有望降低合金海绵锆原料成本，形 成闭环产业链。锐钛矿项目不仅解决原料问题，副产品高纯氧化铪（高 达 5 个 9 纯度）将显著提升盈利能力。 全球高纯市场需求增长，主要供应国受限，三祥新材凭借技术优势填补 缺口。高端金属市场价格接近每吨 5,000 万元，预计持续上涨，海外供 给短期难增，国内低端需求较弱，下游需求紧张，价格将保持坚挺。 Q&A 三祥新材在锆材料领域的市场地位和产品布局 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shuangxin Environmental Protection, has announced the results of its online issuance, with a total of 286,503 winning numbers for investors to subscribe to 500 shares each, reflecting strong interest in its stock offering [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shuangxin Environmental Protection specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), special fibers, vinyl acetate (VAC), and calcium carbide, establishing a circular economy industrial chain centered on PVA [2]. - The company has become one of the three major production bases for polyvinyl alcohol in China, with a projected production of 116,900 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 13% of the domestic total [2]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Highlights - The company’s production and operations of PVA and related products are currently running at full capacity with low inventory levels, indicating high capacity utilization and sales rates [3]. - The total number of new shares issued is 287 million, with an online issuance of 143 million shares at a price of 6.85 yuan per share, raising a total of 1.966 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Fund Utilization and Market Strategy - The raised funds will be allocated to projects including the annual production of 16,000 tons of PVB resin and functional films, 60,000 tons of water-based adhesives, energy-saving technology upgrades in the PVA industrial chain, and the establishment of a research and development center [3]. - The company aims to enhance the production capacity of high-value-added products and strengthen its technological capabilities to meet the growing market demand in emerging fields, accelerating the domestic substitution process in high-value sectors [3]. - The trend of domestic substitution for high-end products and the exploration of international markets is seen as an inevitable direction for the future development of domestic PVA enterprises [3].