| 111 | 国内斯特 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月04日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 文文文 | | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国11月ADP就业减少3.2万人不及预期的增加1万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，就业走弱继续得到验 证。12月降息概率接近90%已基本定价,贵金属震荡为主,白银突破后呈现高波动特点,黄金突破前高阻力 前贵金属整体不宜追高。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金人数。 ★克里姆林宫:说俄罗斯总统普京拒绝了美国关于乌克兰的方案是不正确的,这仅仅是一次初步的意见 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. 2. Core View The precious metals market was previously boosted by interest rate cut expectations, leading to some long - position profit - taking and causing the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver to oscillate and correct, with increased intraday volatility. Silver continues its strong trend supported by the tight spot market, and the squeeze trading may not ease quickly in the short term. The macro data shows a mixed picture of the US economy, strengthening the narrative of a weakening labor market. Interest rate futures indicate an 89% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The macro expectation of rate cuts continues to be positive for the gold and silver markets. In the short term, precious metals may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend after the Fed confirms the rate - cut tone, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The London gold price has a resistance level of $4300 per ounce and a support level of $4100 per ounce; the London silver price has a resistance level of $59 per ounce and a support level of $54 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 953.42 yuan/gram, down 3.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 13424 yuan/kg, down 158 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 197,638 hands, down 161 hands; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 27,706 hands, down 3818 hands [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 310,489 hands, up 10393 hands; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,280,887 hands, down 383516 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 90870 kg, down 3 kg; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 654,098 kg, up 27465 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 949.32 yuan/gram, down 0.74 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,705 yuan/kg, up 13 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/gram, up 2.54 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 281 yuan/kg, up 171 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1046.58 tons, down 1.71 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,998.55 tons, up 135.40 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 176609 contracts, down 27307 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 37,259 contracts, down 5922 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51; the CBOE gold volatility index was 21.96, down 0.53 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.63, up 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 72.14, down 1.24 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. New order growth declined from a one - year high, the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low, and the employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, far below expectations [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.8%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 7.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 27.6% [2]. - The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The US believes the Moscow talks between the US and Russia have "positive significance" for the peace process [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - US Challenger job cuts in November on December 4 at 20:30 - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 on December 4 at 21:30 - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]

谁会成为黄金之后的下一个"黑马"。答案是：白银。 2025年，白银涨幅超100%，遥遥领先于其他贵金属，成为了一条"白马"。 白银的上涨令人惊讶，金银比历史最高，上一次白银触及50美元是在2021年，比这更早一次是1980年。 表面而言，白银涨幅领先黄金，从历史涨幅对比来看，黄金甩白银一条街。黄金1980年660美元，2011年高点1920美元，现在黄金4000多美元了。 如果简单类比，白银涨到100美元才能和现在的黄金看齐，前提是中途黄金原地不动，资金开始从黄金流向白银，期待在白银投资里取得满分。 不能只想好的一面，不考虑坏的一面。来看下面这张图： 1980年白银涨到49.5美元一直到2011年才被超越，间隔近30年时间，不知有几人能扛住？最低白银1993年跌到3.6美元，在这个区间横盘近10年时间。 第二次2011年白银50美元跌到11美元附近，这一次重新突破50美元用了近14年时间。 发现没有，白银过去历史上极端行情都没有好下场，疯狂的背后就是深渊，有人说没事：做时间的朋友。前一次白银30年，第二次14年，这样的朋友敢要 吗？ 好的一面，白银和黄金类比有更大的上升空间，坏的一面，白银纯属炒作，没有任何金 ...

周三晚间，贵金属市场呈现高位震荡格局。纽约黄金主力合约上涨0.28%，报4232.50美元/盎司；沪金 主力合约小幅下跌0.12%，收于955.66元/克。白银方面，纽约白银主力合约盘中最高触及59.655美元/盎 司，创历史新高，但最终收跌0.14%，报58.62美元/盎司；沪银主力合约同步跟跌0.13%，报13600元/千 克。 周三晚间，美元指数收跌。经济数据方面，美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，远逊于预期，创2023 年3月以来最低水平，进一步印证美国劳动力市场正在走弱，强化了市场对美联储降息的紧迫性预期。 货币政策层面，美国财长贝森特公开表示"经济某些领域已出现疲软，需要降息"，其言论与潜在下任美 联储主席人选哈塞特的鸽派立场形成呼应，持续为贵金属营造宽松的货币环境预期。 周三晚间，贵金属市场呈现高位震荡格局。纽约黄金主力合约上涨0.28%，报4232.50美元/盎司；沪金 主力合约小幅下跌0.12%，收于955.66元/克。白银方面，纽约白银主力合约盘中最高触及59.655美元/盎 司，创历史新高，但最终收跌0.14%，报58.62美元/盎司；沪银主力合约同步跟跌0.13%，报13600元 ...

白银供应端总体平稳，矿山生产略有减少，但回收量因银价上涨而增加， 预计未来高价位将进一步刺激回收。 工业需求受光伏产业影响显著，尽管光伏用银量因技术进步而下降，但 AI、新能源汽车和数据中心等领域的需求增长带来增量，如每辆新能源 汽车较传统燃油车多消耗约 30 克白银。 当前白银市场现货紧张，主要由于 ETF 大量持有现货锁定流动性，而非 期货逼仓。全球主要 ETF 持有 2.57 万吨白银，伦敦库存仅 2.63 万吨， 导致市场流动性紧张。 白银价格受多种因素影响，不仅是供需关系，还包括金融市场投资活动。 长期来看，白银价格走势跟随黄金，涨幅受商品属性影响，即短缺或过 剩情况决定涨幅大小。 未来几年，光伏和新能源车等领域对白银的需求预计将收窄供需缺口， 但贵金属行情主要由金融属性驱动，全球变局是重要影响因素，预计明 年涨幅约为 30%。 传统上，美债收益率与黄金定价显著负相关，但自 2020 年以来，这一 关系逐渐被打破，需要重新评估美债收益率对黄金定价的影响，并关注 其他可能替代无风险收益率指标的发展趋势。 中美博弈加剧，美元信用削弱，各国央行购入黄金以分散风险，促使更 多资金流入避险资产，如黄金和白银， ...

Group 1 - Retail investment remains a key driver for the expansion of overall trading volume in the precious metals market, with CME Group reporting an average daily trading volume of 33.1 million contracts in November, marking a 10% increase year-over-year and the second highest in history [1][3] - The preference for smaller contracts has significantly driven the surge in trading volume, with the overall average daily trading volume in the metals sector increasing by 52% last month, and micro gold futures reaching an average daily volume of 476,000 contracts, a substantial increase of 235% compared to last year [1][3] Group 2 - Silver futures have seen notable growth, with an average daily trading volume of 108,000 contracts, up 22% year-over-year, and micro silver futures experiencing a remarkable 238% increase in volume [2][4] - The strong trading activity in silver is closely linked to its price surge, with November silver futures rising by 18.6%, achieving the best monthly performance since 2020, and breaking the $55 per ounce mark for the first time [2][4] - As of December, silver prices have continued to rise, reaching $59.275 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [2][4] - Despite potential volatility near record highs, strong demand and tightening supply structures provide robust support for silver's long-term trend, with some institutional investors viewing silver as having a valuation advantage over gold [2][4] - The long-term gold-silver ratio is approximately 68, while the current ratio stands at 74, indicating potential for further silver price appreciation if the ratio returns to its historical average [2][4]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月02日16时13分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.01%，沪银主力收涨2.46%，铂金主力收跌2.57%，钯金主力收涨跌2.23%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可 能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国供应管理协会(ISM)表示，11月美国制造业 PMI从10月的48.7降至48.2连续第九个月萎缩。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个月低点。美国9月就业增长超预 期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80% 以上。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列 为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December due to a weak labor market and indications from policymakers [2] - The Bank of Japan's hint at a potential interest rate hike has caused significant market fluctuations, with the Nikkei index dropping nearly 1000 points and Bitcoin prices plummeting [2] - Silver prices have reached a historical high, with spot silver rising over 5% and year-to-date gains exceeding 100%, while gold has also hit a six-week high [2] Group 2 - The A-share market has experienced a downturn, with a report suggesting that earnings may fall below market consensus, although some foreign investors remain optimistic about a rebound in 2026 [3] - Leading lithium iron phosphate companies have raised price demands, with one company increasing processing fees by 3000 yuan per ton starting January 1, 2026, amid supply-demand imbalances [3] - The intense competition in the food delivery sector has led to significant losses for platforms, with Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com collectively spending over 614 billion yuan on sales and marketing, prompting calls for a return to rational consumption [3] Group 3 - Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short," has expressed skepticism about Tesla's valuation, questioning its business strategy and shareholder dilution due to Elon Musk's compensation plan [4] - The animated film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a cumulative box office of 1.92 billion yuan, setting records for imported animated films in China and significantly outperforming North America [5] - The AI model DeepSeek has released new versions, acknowledging a widening gap between open-source and closed-source models, with plans for future improvements [5] Group 4 - ST Suwu has been forced to delist due to financial fraud, with its stock price plummeting over 90% this year, affecting nearly 68,000 shareholders [5]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月01日16时21分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨5.86%，铂金主力收涨3.96%，钯金主力收涨2.44%。①核心逻辑，短 期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果 共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能 性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个 月低点。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12 月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利 空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。 ⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略： ...

CME宕机引发全球市场冲击 Wmax监测显示，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）近期突发数据中心故障，导致标普500期货、EBS外汇平台、国债、原油及贵金属等关键品种交易暂停， 涉及数万亿美元合约，影响深度与时长超2019年同类故障。芝商所日均衍生品交易量超2600万份，迷你标普500与纳斯达克100期货日均名义交易额约1万亿 美元，庞大体量使冲击快速蔓延。 此次停摆恰逢感恩节后清淡期、月末及基金年终结算叠加节点，导致流动性对冲工具缺失，国债交易受限、外汇价差扩大，期货交割压力陡增。对贵金属市 场而言，Comex黄金期货与期权冻结导致伦敦现货对冲失效，金价先飙后震荡，买卖价差从1美元飙升至20美元以上，叠加美国政府停摆致经济数据缺失， 进一步放大短期波动。 黄金短期策略 政策端聚焦12月美联储议息会议，市场预期降息25个基点；技术面伦敦金现最新4252.51美元/盎司（日涨0.71%），支撑位4220-4230美元（资金承接区，与 10年期美债收益率3.85%负相关），阻力位4280-4300美元。操作建议：4230-4240美元轻仓介入，突破4300美元且站稳2日加仓；初始仓位15%-20%，加仓后 不超30% ...