Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that UK long-term bonds are strengthening, indicated by a decrease in the 30-year UK bond yield by 9 basis points to 5.43% [1]

在正常情况下，这应该会导致日本债券价格下跌以及收益率上升，因为投资者要求获得更高的回报。日 本债务超过8万亿美元，几乎相当于其经济规模的2.5倍。 尽管日本长期债券收益率一直在上升，但远未达到反映政府挥霍无度的水平。日本30年期债券的收益率 仅为3%。 日元疲软、低利率的遗留影响、日本重回通胀、庞大的国内储蓄以及日本央行政策等因素共同支撑了日 本政府债券收益率。分析人士预计，这种对债券的支持作用还将持续。 三菱日联金融集团高级货币分析师Michael Wan表示："随着一些提案的提出以及政治动态的变化，未来 可能会有更多人呼吁财政支持，包括消费税。" 但Wan和其他分析师指出，日本过去三年的经济增长以及摆脱通缩，是其债务负担可控且未来几年可能 下降的原因。 凯投宏观亚太区首席经济学家Marcel Thieliant在一份报告中称："日本的财政状况并没有很多人认为的 那么糟糕。"他表示，尽管日本的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比在所有主要经济体中是最高的，但净 债务水平要低得多。 三菱日联金融集团的Wan表示："与其他国家相比，日本是一个净债权国。因此，理论上来说，日本拥 有大量闲置资金，这些资金来自本土机构的 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 187.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on July 18, with a total bid and awarded amount of 187.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 84.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [1] - From July 21 to 25, a total of 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repos will mature, along with 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing on July 25 and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on July 22 [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding conditions are slightly easing, with overnight pledged repo rates down slightly to 1.45% and 7-day pledged repo rates down by less than 2 basis points to 1.50% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is 4.34% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds are mixed, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22%, the 10-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 5-year main contract down 0.05% [11] - The 2-year main contract remained flat [11] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The central bank is soliciting opinions on the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures (Draft for Comments)," which includes 26 articles focusing on brokerage institution types, risk isolation, and client qualification management [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and six other departments issued measures to encourage foreign investment enterprises to reinvest domestically, optimizing management processes [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries will be released soon [12] Group 6: Global Macro - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that economic data should dictate the pace of interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence [15] Group 7: Bond Events - Anhui Province plans to issue 92.752 billion yuan in local bonds in August, all of which are special bonds [17] - Jilin Province plans to issue 10.36555 billion yuan in local government bonds in August [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been in a sideways trend for three months. After the equal - tariff disturbance in early April, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond dropped to 1.65% and has since fluctuated between 1.65% and 1.70% [2][10]. - There are four changes in institutional behavior during the sideways period of the bond market, including changes in the behavior of large banks, the actions of funds and other asset management products, the allocation preferences of insurance institutions, and the change in the lending volume of 10 - year Treasury bonds [2][3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review - **Four Changes in Institutional Behavior during the Sideways Period of the Bond Market** - Large banks not only increase their purchases of short - term Treasury bonds but also their demand for certificates of deposit. Their weekly demand for certificates of deposit has rebounded to over 100 billion yuan since late May, indicating improved liability - side pressure. After the mid - month tax period disturbance, the liquidity may further loosen [2][10]. - Funds extend the duration of their bond holdings, and asset management products such as trusts increase their purchases. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds has risen to 3.92 years, about 1 year higher than at the beginning of the sideways period, suggesting that non - bank institutions are holding bonds in anticipation of price increases [3][10]. - Insurance institutions have almost stopped buying Treasury bonds in the secondary market and mainly allocate local government bonds, especially 30 - year and 20 - year ones [3][11]. - The lending volume of 10 - year Treasury bonds has significantly declined, while the lending volume of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has remained flat. The decrease in Treasury bond borrowing by securities firms may be due to limited space for reverse arbitrage strategies in the futures market [3][11]. - **Yield Curve**: The yields of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 2bp, the 3Y about 2bp, etc. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield dropped about 1bp, the 5Y about 2bp, etc [12]. - **Term Spread**: The spread between Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds has increased. For Treasury bonds, the term spread has generally widened; for China Development Bank bonds, the medium - and long - term spreads have widened [15][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Liquidity - **Leverage Ratio**: It has dropped to 107.09%. From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the leverage ratio first increased and then decreased during the week [19]. - **Pledged Repurchase**: The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase this week was 7.2 trillion yuan, with an average daily overnight trading volume accounting for 88.54%. The average daily trading volume decreased by 0.97 trillion yuan compared with last week [25]. - **Liquidity**: Banks' net lending has fluctuated upwards. As of July 18, the net lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.18 trillion yuan; the average daily net lending of joint - stock banks and city and rural commercial banks was 0.77 trillion yuan, and they had a net borrowing of 0.75 trillion yuan on July 18 [29]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds remained at 2.87 years (de - leveraged) and 3.22 years (leveraged). On July 18, the de - leveraged median duration was the same as last Friday, while the leveraged median duration increased by 0.01 year [42]. - **Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (leveraged) remained at 3.92 years, and the median duration of credit - bond funds (leveraged) rose to 2.99 years, an increase of 0.01 year compared with last Friday [46]. 3.4 Comparison of Category Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: It has generally narrowed. The 1Y spread narrowed by 5bp, the 2Y by 7bp, etc [52]. - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - term implied tax rate has widened, while the medium - and long - term rates have shown differentiation [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance On July 18, the lending concentration of the active bonds of 10 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, and 30 - year Treasury bonds showed an upward trend, while that of the second - active bonds of 10 - year Treasury bonds and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds showed a downward trend. Except for securities firms, the lending concentration of all other institutions increased [54].

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up with the Dow at +0.12%, S&P 500 at +0.09%, Nasdaq at +0.16%, and Russell 2000 leading at +0.52% [1] Bond Market - Bond yields have remained steady; the 10-year yield is at +4.44%, up 3 basis points from last week, the 2-year yield is at +3.88%, and the 30-year yield is at +5.00% [2] Housing Market - Housing Starts for June are at 1.32 million, slightly above projections, but still historically low, up from 1.256 million the previous month [3] - Building Permits increased to 1.397 million from 1.394 million in May, remaining at low levels compared to January 2022 when permits were close to 2 million [4] Q2 Earnings Reports - 3M reported Q2 earnings of $2.16 per share, beating expectations of $2.01, with revenues of $6.2 billion exceeding forecasts [5] - American Express reported Q2 earnings of $4.08 per share, surpassing the expected $3.86, with revenues of $17.9 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of +9% [6] - Charles Schwab's Q2 earnings were $1.14 per share on revenues of $5.85 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates, with shares up +5% in pre-market trading [7] Consumer Sentiment - A preliminary print on Consumer Sentiment for July is expected to improve to 61.8 from 60.7, indicating a healthier economic environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The German bond market experienced fluctuations in yields, with the 10-year bond yield declining and then rising before ultimately closing lower, indicating volatility in investor sentiment and market conditions [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The 10-year German bond yield fell by 1.3 basis points to 2.675%, reaching a daily high of 2.713% before declining to a low of 2.662% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield increased by 0.2 basis points to 1.862%, trading within a range of 1.850% to 1.873% during the day [1] - The 30-year German bond yield decreased by 1.6 basis points to 3.198% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds narrowed by 1.526 basis points to +80.966 basis points, having previously reached a daily high of +84.647 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are expected to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,330 per ounce, showing slight increases due to safe-haven demand amid tariff announcements from Trump [1]. - Despite a recent rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 98.70, the market interprets this as a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend shift, suggesting potential for gold price recovery [1][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to support gold prices, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations indicate a potential interest rate cut of about 44 basis points by the end of the year, with a decrease in the probability of a September rate cut from 80% to 53% [4]. - Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain vigilant regarding interest rate adjustments, which could impact gold prices [4]. - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is critical, as it may confirm inflation pressures and influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, with short-term price movements expected to remain within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [5]. - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and a trend towards looser monetary policy could provide upward momentum for gold prices [5][6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor PPI data and developments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as trends in the dollar and bond yields, to identify investment opportunities in the gold market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's research indicates that Japanese government bonds are exerting new pressure on long-term yields, contributing to the steepening of the government bond yield curve [1] Group 1 - The yield curve for major government bonds continues to steepen, which raises concerns despite no significant events occurring [1] - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds reached a multi-decade high of 2.657% earlier, marking the highest level since November 1999, before retracting to 2.617% [1]

日本参议院选举推升长期债券收益率 分析师称恐危及实体经济 日本10年国债收益率 金十数据7月15日讯，日本10年期国债收益率触及2008年以来的最高水平，增加了债市动荡将导致企业 和消费者借贷成本上升的风险。收益率上行的原因是人们担心本周末参议院选举之后，政府支出可能会 增加。明治安田研究所经济学家Yuichi Kodama说，10 年期收益率非常重要，因为它驱动固定抵押贷款 利率，并将对实体经济产生重大影响。伊藤忠研究所首席经济学家Atsushi Takeda说："10年期收益率上 升是我们必须密切关注的。 如果反对党获胜，财政焦虑将继续存在。如果自民党获胜，投资者可能会 重新购买债券。"三菱日联摩根士丹利证券策略师Takahiro Otsuka表示："10年期收益率受超长债需求担 忧及流动性下降驱动，无法断言1.6%将成涨势终点。" ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced volatility, with spot gold rising to $3350 per ounce after a turbulent trading session on Monday, where it reached a three-week high before closing lower [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated two import investigations on drone systems and polysilicon, which may lead to tariffs, raising concerns about a potential trade war impacting the global economy [3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year yield reaching nearly 5% and the 10-year yield at 4.447%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [3] Group 2 - Upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to influence gold prices, with a forecasted rise in June CPI from 2.4% to 2.7% and core CPI expected to reach 3%, which could strengthen expectations for sustained high interest rates [4] - Political pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates has created market unease, particularly concerning the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid calls for lower rates from the Trump administration [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at $3365 and support levels identified at $3341 and $3334-30 [5]