Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are currently influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and are awaiting guidance from the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is expected to cause significant price fluctuations [1] - Gold prices have retreated below 3400 due to a decrease in risk sentiment, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand [1] - Long-term factors such as low interest rates and global economic uncertainty are favorable for gold, while short-term volatility may increase, necessitating cautious trading strategies [1] Group 2 - The current key support range for gold is identified between 3360-3365, which is both an important support level and a trend reversal point [3] - A bullish strategy is maintained as long as prices remain above the support range, with a focus on the 3360-3365 strong support area, which aligns with the 5-week moving average [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips around 3370-3375, with additional purchases if the price breaks below the 3360-3365 support range, setting a stop loss at 3352 and targeting 3380-3420 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3381 per ounce, showing a mild downward trend as it awaits the Federal Reserve's decision for clearer direction [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, are influencing gold prices, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy announcement expected to cause significant volatility [2] - The key resistance level for gold is identified at $3405, with a breakthrough indicating a potential bullish trend, while prices below this level suggest a bearish outlook [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant increase, with Brent crude previously rising by 4.4% and nearing $76 per barrel, while WTI approached $75 [6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, is a major factor affecting oil prices, with potential for further increases if conflicts escalate [6] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a bullish trend, with the price testing new highs and showing strong upward momentum, suggesting a focus on buying on dips [7]

日韩股市低开高走 6月18日早间，日韩股市 双双 低开， 随后震荡拉升。截至发稿， 日经225指数涨0.2%，至 2月21日以来的最高点。 此外， 日本央行在最新发布的货币政策声明中称，将维持政策利率在0.5%不变，并计划在下 一财年放缓购债的缩减步伐。 贝莱德中东及亚太地区首席投资策略师本·鲍威尔表示，由于面临全球经济不确定性，日本央 行今年年底前很可能会维持利率不变。本次按兵不动发生在食品价格上涨推动通胀上升的背 景下，与此同时，全球贸易摩擦和油价波动也为经济环境增添了复杂性。从日本国内来看， 薪资上涨与物价坚挺之间正在形成一个良性循环，势头逐渐增强，但外部环境的不确定性仍 使日本央行保持观望态度。 个股方面，王子控股、大成建设、任天堂等涨幅居前。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 = | 总市 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王子控股 | 722.2 | 4.12% | 7326亿 | | 3861.T | | | | | 大成建设 | 8280.0 | 3.37% | 15166亿 | | 1801.T | | | | | 任天堂 | 12850.0 | 3.30% | ...

金十数据6月17日讯，贝莱德中东及亚太地区首席投资策略师本·鲍威尔表示，由于面临全球经济不确定 性，日本央行今年年底前很可能会维持利率不变。本次按兵不动发生在食品价格上涨推动通胀上升的背 景下，而与此同时，全球贸易摩擦和油价波动也为经济环境增添了复杂性。鲍威尔指出，从日本国内来 看，薪资上涨与物价坚挺之间正在形成一个良性循环，势头逐渐增强。但外部环境的不确定性仍使日本 央行保持观望态度。他补充称：从战略角度来看，我们仍然建议在长期投资组合中对日本股票保持高于 基准的配置比例。支撑这一观点的因素包括通胀上升、工资增长以及由此带来的企业盈利改善。 贝莱德：全球经济不确定性下，日本央行年内料继续观望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices indicates a significant market reaction to global economic uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions [1][5][14]. Price Movements - On May 15, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping to a low of $3,120 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures fell over 2% to a minimum of $3,123 per ounce [2][3]. - In the previous month, gold had surged to a peak of $3,500 per ounce, resulting in a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3][4]. Historical Context - The current gold price reflects a retraction of gains made during a period of temporary tariff implementation [4]. - The gold market's upward trend began in July 2022, with prices rising from $1,900 per ounce to the current level of $3,100 per ounce, marking a 63% increase [6][10]. Driving Factors for Gold Prices - The post-pandemic economic recovery has been slower than expected, leading to lower GDP growth rates in major economies, which historically drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10]. - Increased geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern unrest, have heightened the demand for gold as a protective asset [11]. - Central banks globally have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, with significant increases in reserves noted in countries like China and Russia [12]. Fundamental Issues - A critical factor in the long-term bullish trend for gold is the declining trust in U.S. sovereign credit, highlighted by recent downgrades from credit rating agencies [13]. - The inverse relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar indicates that as the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against potential dollar depreciation [14]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation is expected to continue, driven by the U.S.'s diminishing global influence and internal political divisions, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook for gold [15]. - Historical patterns show that significant corrections in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current economic uncertainties, gold is deemed an essential asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations for investors to allocate a portion of their funds to long-term gold holdings [18][19]. - It is suggested that the returns from gold investments over a five-year horizon are likely to outperform those from more volatile assets like stocks and funds [20].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty, as highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chair, Hawkesby [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The trajectory of the official cash rate reflects that global inflation is not as high as previously thought [1] - Future interest rate decisions will be contingent on evolving circumstances [1]

巴西央行官员Nilton David：全球经济仍然存在高度的不确定性。 ...

巴西央行官员Nilton David表示，全球经济仍然存在高度的不确定性。 ...

周二（5月20日）因美联储官员对经济发表了更为谨慎的言论，同时交易员们期待着美国与日本即将举行的会谈，其中可能包括作为贸易协议一部分的汇率 讨论。美元指数继续走软，并跌至100大关附近，最终收跌0.34%，报100.02。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.491%；对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率 收报3.977%。受益于市场仍然存在一定程度的不确定性，现货黄金先跌后涨，在欧盘时段开启涨势，并于美盘加速上行，日内大涨近2%，逼近3300美元大 关，最终收涨1.84%，报3289.98美元/盎司。周三，因美媒报道称以色列或准备袭击伊朗的核设施，黄金一度升破3300美元大关。 尽管近期黄金价格自4月创下的每盎司3,500美元历史高位大幅回调，但中长期支撑因素依旧稳固。从中长期来看，黄金仍是"买入并持有"的优质资产，尤其 在当前全球不确定性加剧的背景下。尽管美联储推迟降息且美国经济衰退风险降低，但市场预期美联储将在9月开始降息，这将进一步提升黄金的吸引力。 黄金上周四下探3120关口后迅速反弹回升逾100美元，随后震荡调整，周二大幅上涨逼近3300美元关口，目前多头走势偏强，周三早间一度上破3300美元关 口，日线 ...