Core Points - The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is reviewing an extension of the large tax cut law enacted during Donald Trump's first term, amidst concerns over the national debt exceeding $36 trillion [1] - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, effective since the end of 2017, is set to expire at the end of this year, with Trump promising to extend it and introduce additional measures [1] - Key Republican figures are working to finalize the new tax bill's content, with a preliminary vote scheduled for May 13 [1] Group 1 - The new tax bill is divided into 11 chapters, with significant contention surrounding tax policy, healthcare assistance programs, green energy projects, and food stamp aid [1] - Proposed cuts include reductions in federal spending for low-income healthcare assistance and nutrition programs, as well as the elimination of environmental tax credits, leading to internal disagreements among Republicans [1] Group 2 - Trump initially pushed for an increase in tax rates for the wealthiest individuals but later appeared to retract this position, suggesting that Republicans "may not need" to raise taxes on the wealthy [2] - The Republican leadership aims to finalize the bill text by the weekend, with hopes to pass it in the House before the Memorial Day holiday on May 26 [2] - The House Budget Committee Chairman emphasized the challenge of cutting spending, stating that without a $2 trillion reduction in federal spending over the next decade, the sustainability of the tax cuts may be at risk [2]

个人所得税也是减税重点。一方面，对在职的一线工人、服务人员等取消加班与小费收入的征税， 允许汽车贷款利息部分抵税；另一方面，对中老年群体取消社会保障福利的缴税，年收入超过2.5万美 元的老年人在领取社会保障福利时不再缴纳50%—85%的所得税，如果再加上本已存在的各种抵税与免 税项目，美国个人所得税降幅显著。 据美国税收基金会测算，新一轮减税可使2026年纳税人的税后收入平均增长2.9%，长期增长约 3.0%，由此有助于促进私人与家庭消费，企业投资积极性提升，美国GDP可长期增长约1.1%，公共财 政收入将获得明显改善。 但减税是否能够带来真实的经济增长存疑。一方面，相比首任任期，本次减税力度有所减弱，边际 效应可能递减；另一方面，新政策主要面向普通工薪阶层，庞大中产阶层受益有限，难以刺激消费增 量。 美国总统特朗普在首任任期内创下3.13万亿美元的美国史上最大财政赤字后，承诺在新任期内大幅 削减赤字。美国财政部长贝森特提出"3-3-3"计划：到2028年将财政赤字降至3%，实现3%的GDP增长和 每日300万桶石油产量。但现实情况显示这一目标恐难实现。最新数据显示，继上财年1.83万亿美元赤 字后，2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is considering raising the highest personal income tax rate for individuals earning over $2.5 million from 37% to 39.6%, despite previous opposition due to concerns about wealthy individuals leaving the country and political backlash [2][3]. Group 1: Tax Policy Considerations - Trump privately urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to increase the tax rate and close loopholes for Wall Street investors, indicating a potential shift in tax policy [3]. - The Republican Party is reportedly drafting a new tax cut bill, aiming for passage in the House by the end of May, but Trump's previous rejection of the tax increase reflects his concerns about its potential negative impact [3][4]. - The proposed increase in the "super-rich tax" has sparked internal debate within the Republican Party, with some members advocating for the tax hike to counteract accusations of favoring the wealthy [6]. Group 2: Opposition and Concerns - Key Republican figures, including Johnson and Gingrich, along with business groups, oppose the tax increase, fearing it could lead to significant political repercussions for the party [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that raising taxes on the wealthy contradicts the Republican Party's long-standing economic principles, indicating a shift in the party's voter base and a search for funding sources due to fiscal gaps created by previous tax cuts [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact Analysis - A recent analysis by the Tax Foundation estimates that raising the highest tax rate could generate $409 billion over the next decade but may also reduce incentives for work and investment, negatively affecting GDP growth [9]. - The proposed tax rate of 39.6%, when combined with state taxes, could result in a marginal effective tax rate exceeding 50% for many individuals [10]. - The success of this tax proposal within the Republican Party will test Trump's influence, with some party members expressing skepticism about the proposal's viability [11].

登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 分析师： 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 静观其变，谋而后动 ——2025年5月资产配置报告 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年5月8日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 关税缓和信号显现，但行业关税仍存变数： 内容目录 海外宏观 Ø 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 关税对经济影响逐渐显现，既定政策加快落地 Ø 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 u 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩至-0.3%，主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的拖累。后续美国经济走势 取决于关税谈判的进展（商品消费），以及减税政策的支持（私人投资）。 u 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量，对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致匹配—— 即全球基准税率降至10%，中国维持约60%高位。 u 对华关税政策方面，特朗普表示"对中国达成 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent macroeconomic data in the U.S. shows resilience in hard data while soft data is starting to weaken, indicating a potential "soft landing" for the economy [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded from oversold territory, returning to the March trading range, but the odds of further gains have diminished [1][4] - The report emphasizes the need to closely monitor the pace of tariff negotiations and their transmission effects on the U.S. economy in the second quarter [1][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the "Trump trade" narrative, noting that market optimism initially focused on tax cuts while underestimating the impact of tariffs [2][9] - It points out that Trump's use of executive orders has been extensive, with at least 185 orders signed in the first 100 days, the highest for any U.S. president in that timeframe [2][12] - The report indicates that Trump's policy commitments, particularly in trade, immigration, and energy, have seen varying degrees of fulfillment, with overall fulfillment rates remaining low [3][22] Group 3 - The report analyzes the recent market optimism, attributing it to a combination of macroeconomic risk mitigation and positive earnings reports rather than a resolution of tariff concerns [4][30] - It notes that while hard data such as GDP and employment figures show resilience, consumer sentiment indicators have weakened, suggesting potential future economic challenges [4][31] - The earnings reports from major tech companies have been strong, while consumer goods companies express concerns over the impact of tariffs on their cost structures and profitability [4][39]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #海外政治 特朗普 2.0 百日新政复盘及后市展望 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《五一假期海外市场：强非农再压降 息预期》 2025-05-05 《美债天量的到期 vs 供给，哪个更致 命？》 2025-04-30 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：特朗普 2.0 百日新政兼具特朗普 1.0 政策延续和新政治周期 起点的双重特征，而在政策落地上，关税和财政政策成为最大的两个"预 期差"来源，二者在影响全球增长预期的同时，也使得特朗普 2.0 百日 新政内的大类资产走势与 1.0 时 ...

美国财长贝森特：2017年减税政策的持续将带来经济刺激。 ...

面对经济形势的不确定性及特朗普支持率下行的压力，美国共和党正努力在7月4日前，通过一项被称 为"又大又美"（big, beautiful）的税收支出法案，以提振经济并挽回政治声望。 然而，这个法案的主要内容却只是对现有减税政策的延续，新政措施又规模有限，实际经济效应可能被 关税政策削弱，其政治回报可能远低于预期。 对于特朗普政府而言，这场减税行动，更像是防守，而非进攻。 减税计划的"核心"：维持现状 美参议院财政委员会主席、共和党人迈克·克拉波（Mike Crapo）对此表示，法案若获通过，"将避免民 众的钱包被'洗劫'，并有望重现2017年那样的经济增长"。 不过，尽管共和党强调延续减税能刺激经济，但实际效果很可能"维持现状"多于"扩张经济"。对公众而 言，这只是"避免坏消息"，而非明显利好。 前美国国会预算办公室主任Douglas Holtz-Eakin表示，自从共和党去年11月完全控制政府，美国人就可 以放心地认为减税政策将会延长： "围绕税法本身并不存在巨大的不确定性，没有人认为它不会延长。" 特朗普的新主意：给选民看得见的利益 特朗普显然意识到，仅仅延长旧有政策，"旧瓶装旧酒"不足以激发选民热情。因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the actions taken by Donald Trump during his second term in office, highlighting his efforts to fulfill campaign promises and the mixed results of these initiatives. Group 1: Economic Policies - Trump has made claims about reducing inflation, with rates dropping from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025, but the legality and effectiveness of his tariff policies remain uncertain [1] - His tax reduction plans are expected to decrease national revenue, complicating debt repayment, and the national debt increased significantly during his first term despite similar promises [2] - Trump has implemented tariffs on foreign goods, which he believes will protect American interests, but this has led to market volatility and mixed results [6] Group 2: Immigration Policies - There has been a significant decrease in attempted illegal border crossings, from nearly 250,000 in December 2023 to about 7,181 in March 2025, although comparisons to previous administrations are still pending [3] Group 3: Energy Policies - Trump has promised to reduce energy costs significantly, with some predictions indicating a potential drop in gasoline prices by up to 15 cents per gallon due to his tariff policies [5] Group 4: Social and Cultural Policies - Trump has taken steps to cut funding for educational institutions that do not align with his administration's values, targeting universities like Harvard and threatening to revoke their tax-exempt status [11] - His administration has also sought to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, impacting cultural institutions and federal funding for certain projects [12] - Trump has signed orders to restrict transgender athletes from competing in women's sports, reflecting his commitment to conservative social policies [13] Group 5: Legal and Judicial Actions - Some of Trump's initiatives have faced legal challenges, raising questions about their long-term viability and the potential for judicial review to impact his policy agenda [1]