文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 我们经过测算发现，基准情形下，通过增加关税、压降北约军费支出与DOGE减少支出或难对冲减 税带来的财政赤字增加，2 0 2 5 - 2 0 2 6年美国财政赤字率或难大幅下降。一方面，受限于两院博弈以 及党内派系分歧，减税政策或"瘦身落地"；另一方面，通过增加关税、DOGE以及北约军费压缩的 方式带来的金额或低于特朗普口头沟通的规模。此外，特朗普政府或还倾向通过压降联邦基金利率 来降低利息支出压力，不过该方法或需至2 6 / 2 7年方能见成效。同时需关注保险金支出的压降政 策。整体来看，2 0 2 5年美国或仍呈现"小幅宽货币以及稳财政"的政策风格，财政赤字率或在高位 保持稳定。 ▍ 近期特朗普一系列"开源节流"的政策引发市场关注，市场对于特朗普政府能否压降美国财政支 出产生了分歧。我们对该问题进行定量分析。 ▍ 正在进行的政策分析：我们经过测算发现基准情形下，通过增加关税、压降北约军费支出与 DOGE减少支出或难对冲减税带来的财政赤字的增加，2 0 2 5 - 2 0 2 6年美国财政赤字率或难大幅下 降 。具体而言： 存在的结构性责任失衡对美国财政可持续性造成的压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall CPI and core CPI in February were lower than expected, indicating a downward trend year-on-year and a weakening trend month-on-month [2][12] Group 1: February CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year decreased from 3% to 2.8%, while the core CPI fell from 3.3% to 3.1%, both below market expectations [2][12] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, and the previous value of 0.5%; core CPI also rose by 0.2%, against an expectation of 0.3% and a prior value of 0.4% [2][12] - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 40% to 41.4%, while the core CPI items increased from 44% to 48% [12] Group 2: Structural Characteristics of CPI Changes - Food prices saw a decrease in growth from 0.4% to 0.2%, contributing less to CPI growth, with the impact of rising egg prices offset by declines in other food categories [3][14] - Energy prices dropped from 1.1% to 0.2%, significantly reducing their contribution to CPI, with gasoline prices shifting from a 1.8% increase to a 0.9% decrease [3][15] - Core goods prices decreased from 0.3% to 0.2%, with the main improvement attributed to a slowdown in used car price increases [3][15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Concerns about stagflation have eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite, as the CPI data alleviated fears of rising inflation [6][19] - The market's response to the CPI report included a slight increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a rise in stock indices, indicating a shift towards expectations of economic stabilization [6][19] - The Federal futures market still anticipates three rate cuts this year, but the probability of a May rate cut has decreased from 41.3% to 31% [6][20] Group 4: CPI Forecast for the Year - The forecast for U.S. CPI remains unchanged, with core CPI expected to be around 3% and overall CPI at approximately 2.5% for the year [9][21] - Quarterly CPI projections are approximately 2.7%, 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.5%, with core CPI expected to be 3.1%, 3.0%, 3.0%, and 2.9% respectively [9][21]