前言 美国40万吨库存背后的"巨型吸管" 美国正在用金融工具制造一个"巨型吸管"，把全球铜资源源源不断地吸进自己的仓库。 12月3日，当伦敦铜价冲破11540美元历史高位时，COMEX库存已突破40万吨，占全球交易所库存的 70%。 这意味着美国只买全球7%的铜，却控制了70%的流通资源，形成了极端的供需失衡。 12月3日，伦敦铜价冲破11540美元历史高位，而美国COMEX库存突破40万吨，占全球70%。 这种极端反差正在重构全球铜市场，当COMEX仓库里堆积如山的铜锭闪闪发光时，中国下游企业主却 只能盯着电脑屏幕上跳动的价格，苦苦等待补库机会。 美国为何疯狂囤积这种金属？而中国是怎么破局的呢？ 编辑：N 当美国掌控70%的显性库存，中国进口商将面临双重压力，一是LME库存枯竭导致的现货溢价，二是 COMEX库存垄断推高的基准价格。 2022年青山镍事件已经证明，金融工具可被转化为供应链武器，如今铜市场正在重演这一逻辑。 美国的算盘很直白，用库存和关税拖慢中国新能源与高端制造的节奏。 有意思的是，这种操作与232条款和50%关税同步实施，形成了一套精密的组合拳。 232条款将铜列为"国家安全材料"，8月起对 ...

周五的新德里暖意融融，俄罗斯总统普京与印度总理莫迪在此开启高峰会谈。新德里为普京铺上象征最 高礼遇的红地毯，莫迪则明确表态：印度坚定支持推动乌克兰和平的一切努力。四年来，普京首次莅临 印度。此次访问，核心目标在于深化俄印合作。印度不仅是俄罗斯武器的主要采购方，更荣膺其海运石 油的最大买家，双方合作前景可期。 尽管西方制裁正不断挤压两国延续数十年的合作空间，但双方都有意强化纽带，恰逢此时，新德里还在 与美国谈判，希望削减特朗普政府因印度购买俄油而加征的高额惩罚性关税，让这场峰会更添一层战略 博弈色彩。 "印度并非中立，我们的立场是为和平而立。"会谈伊始，莫迪便表明立场，宣称印度将鼎力支持一切推 动乌克兰和平的倡议。普京亦对莫迪在冲突解决方面展现的关注之情致以诚挚谢意。这场会谈也成为普 京回应美国施压的平台，他直言不讳地质疑："若美国有权购买俄罗斯核燃料，为何印度不能？"这番话 直指美国的双重标准，美欧自身仍在进口数十亿美元的俄能源与商品，却阻挠印俄合作。此前特朗普以 印度购俄油为由，对多数印度产品加征50%关税，华盛顿宣称俄油收入会"资助乌克兰战争"，但印度反 驳这一关税既不合理也不公正，强调自身与俄的合作不应 ...

来源：环球网 因此，浙商证券认为，美元走弱大周期下大宗价格水涨船高+金属供给扰动频发，继续看好金属牛市延 续，并建议重点关注去美元化、"反内卷"进程、供应链重构。 展望2026年，浙商证券认为这轮商品超级大周期进程或还未过半，与过去基建地产驱动的周期不同之处 在于，这轮需考虑"大国博弈"这一时代背景，从而拉长进程。 报告特别提出，绿色工业革命和电力消费时代带来了产业趋势性投资机遇，从新能源汽车到储能、固 态、人形机器人、AI等，金属作为能源转型与产业变革的核心载体，迎来需求重构与价值重估的黄金 周期；电力消费+战略自主对铜的需求及库存提出更高的要求，矿端供应不足长期难解。 【环球网财经综合报道】浙商证券近日发布研报认为，2025年全球主要经济体的内外政策开始进入实质 性调整与碰撞阶段，大国博弈纵深化加大了全球供应链断裂风险，将"安全"置于"成本"之上，全球经济 延续弱增长态势。 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the speech is the optimistic outlook for the market despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the need for patience in a bull market [1][11][73] - The current macroeconomic context is characterized by "great power competition," with the U.S. relying on debt expansion to drive market prosperity, leading to a federal debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% [2][12][74] - The U.S. is expected to continue its accommodative monetary policy, with strong demands for interest rate cuts, and a forecast of a weaker dollar in the coming year [3][75][130] Group 2 - The U.S. economy's long-term competitiveness is increasingly dependent on technology, particularly AI, which has contributed over 40% to the actual GDP [3][15][92] - In contrast, China is entering a historical opportunity with a healthy central government balance sheet, where the national debt is 34.5 trillion RMB, only 26% of GDP, providing significant policy maneuverability [4][26][103] - The real estate sector's negative impact on GDP is expected to diminish, with its contribution dropping from nearly 30% to around 13% [5][30][104] Group 3 - China is shifting focus towards "equity finance" and capital markets to revitalize its asset side and promote economic transformation [6][77] - The proportion of stocks held by the Central Huijin in equity ETFs has increased from 5%-8% before the 2023 Financial Work Conference to 37% in the first half of this year, indicating a strong commitment to stabilizing the market [7][36][78] - Looking ahead to 2026, there is significant potential for foreign capital to flow back into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by policies aimed at revitalizing the asset side [8][79][135] Group 4 - The capital market is expected to function as a long-term bull market, akin to the real estate market over the past two decades, with a focus on revitalizing financial and industrial sectors [8][52][126] - The A-share dividend index currently offers a yield of around 4%, while the Hong Kong high-dividend index yields approximately 6%, both exceeding the 10-year government bond yield of about 1.8% [56][128] - The anticipated return of foreign capital is likely to prioritize familiar technology narratives, including internet and AI sectors, as well as unique advanced manufacturing in China [60][135][138]

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions around gold have intensified due to notable actions by central banks in the Philippines and Russia, leading to mixed market sentiments regarding gold's value and future prospects [2][3][19]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Philippines central bank announced plans to reduce its "excess" gold reserves, aiming for gold to constitute 8%-12% of its foreign exchange reserves, which has raised concerns about gold's trustworthiness [5][7]. - Historically, the Philippines has sold gold in waves, with 30 tons sold from January to August last year, coinciding with a rise in international gold prices from $2000 to $2400 per ounce, and even surpassing $4000 this year [7][8]. - As of October, the Philippines holds approximately 4.16 million ounces of gold, with gold making up 15.4% of its total foreign exchange reserves of $109.7 billion. Even with planned reductions, the impact on global gold demand is minimal [8]. - Russia's central bank has begun selling physical gold, a significant move given its holdings of over 2300 tons, which exceeds China's reserves [9][11]. - This action is seen more as a necessity to address a growing fiscal deficit exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict and sanctions, rather than a bearish outlook on gold [14][18]. - The Russian government is using domestic transactions to sell gold, avoiding international market impacts and sanctions, while also catering to increasing domestic demand for gold [17][18]. Group 2: Gold's Value Proposition - Short-term drivers for gold prices remain linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, with expectations of continued rate cuts, which lower the holding costs for gold [20][21]. - Mid-term support for gold prices is expected from a global trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves, with 73% of surveyed central banks anticipating stable or declining dollar reserves over the next five years [22][25]. - Long-term narratives surrounding gold reflect broader geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainties, positioning gold as a measure of stability amid changing global dynamics [26][27]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Given the recent price increases in gold, a shift from speculative trading to a more strategic asset allocation approach is recommended, with a suggested allocation of 5%-10% of total household assets in gold [29][30]. - Gold ETFs are emerging as a preferred investment vehicle for ordinary investors, offering lower costs and easier access compared to physical gold, especially after tax reforms [33][35]. - The characteristics of gold ETFs, such as low entry costs and the ability to trade like stocks, address common investment challenges faced by individuals [36][37].

Group 1 - Three bulk carriers, two loaded with soybeans and one with sorghum, are en route to China, symbolizing not only agricultural exports but also the hopes of American farmers and a significant political leverage for the Trump administration ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] - The U.S. is facing a backlog of 42 million tons of soybeans, leading to increasing dissatisfaction among farmers as storage costs rise daily, while Brazilian prices for agricultural products continue to decline [1] - The U.S. agricultural sector is realizing that China is the only country capable of absorbing a large quantity of soybeans, prompting a shift towards more aggressive negotiation strategies [1] Group 2 - In negotiations in Busan, the U.S. and China are fine-tuning details, with the U.S. agreeing to reduce tariffs by a few percentage points in exchange for China committing to purchase 12 million tons this quarter and a minimum of 25 million tons over three years [3] - The farmers' association expressed excitement over the potential for soybeans to find a market, although there are cautious voices reminding that the shipments have yet to arrive [3] Group 3 - Trump's diplomatic calls to Beijing and Tokyo reflect a shift from aggressive rhetoric to prioritizing dialogue, indicating a strategic approach to maintain U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region [5] - The political landscape in agricultural states like Iowa is closely tied to soybean production, with upcoming elections influencing the urgency of addressing farmers' concerns [7] - The dynamics of soybean trade illustrate the complex interplay between business and politics, where shipments serve as both economic transactions and political statements, with ongoing negotiations expected to continue beyond the initial shipments [7]

2025年11月，华盛顿的天气开始变凉，特朗普的外交梦想却遭遇了前所未有的挑战。就在几小时前，他还信心满满地展示着那份被媒体吹捧为28条协议的停 火方案，仿佛这份协议是和平的最终钥匙。然而，转眼之间，世界看到了他在面对泽连斯基和欧洲盟友时的无奈与困境。这一切发生得极为迅速且戏剧化， 甚至让许多曾经支持特朗普的美国民众感到心碎。心碎的原因，不仅仅是因为一次外交上的失败，更是因为他们意识到：曾经可以左右全球的美国，已经不 再是那个拥有绝对话语权的超级强国。我们需要深入探讨的，就是这一天——11月22日，这一天可能会成为历史书中的一页，标志着一个时代的终结。 原本，这一天被精心安排成特朗普的加冕仪式。按照预定的剧本，他抛出这份方案，俄乌双方虽然有些不情愿，但最终只能点头同意，欧洲也会跟进，而美 国则再次站在全球舞台的中央。然而，特朗普并没有预料到现实的反击。他那份所谓的28条协议，在他眼中不仅仅是一份停火协议，而是展示美国全球领导 地位的象征。可以想象他当时的心情，他可能认为这就是商业谈判，自己有筹码，对方有需求，协议自然就能达成。他甚至在社交媒体上暗示，协议已基本 定案，一些关键人物已经私下认可。然而，现实给了这 ...

Group 1: AI vs. Urban Investment Logic - The "AI faith" and "urban investment faith" share similarities in their foundational logic, emphasizing infrastructure development as a precursor to wealth generation[2] - Key leading indicators for urban investment include city planning area and total project investment, while for AI, they are the number of planned AI servers and data centers, and capital expenditure by major firms[2] - Concerns about AI giants like Nvidia stem from fears of potential overvaluation and competition from alternatives like Google's TPU[2] Group 2: Financial and Economic Implications - The "too big to fail" logic applies to both AI and urban investment, with significant interdependencies in the financial sector; as of November 25, 2025, the "Tech Seven" companies account for 33% of the S&P 500 and 48% of the Nasdaq Composite[2] - The financing logic in urban investment relies on future returns from infrastructure to repay debts, paralleling the substantial investments in AI infrastructure aimed at enhancing computational capabilities[2] - The success of AI is critical for national competitiveness, akin to the role of urban investment in China's rapid urbanization and industrialization[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ongoing debate on whether AI represents a bubble or a genuine faith will require time for resolution, with recent advancements like Google's Gemini 3 and TPU indicating ongoing technological evolution[2] - Risks include the potential for AI development to fall short of expectations, slower-than-anticipated penetration rates, and capital expenditures not meeting projections[2]

11月21日，印度信实工业在特朗普政府的压力下宣布暂停采购俄罗斯原油的消息，引起了国际能源界的关注。这一决策不仅影响了全球能源市场的格局，还 揭示了大国博弈中的复杂权力制衡、利益交换和战略妥协。 特朗普自重返政坛以来，一直坚持美国优先政策，并将重点放在削弱俄罗斯的经济实力上。此次，他将目标瞄准了俄罗斯的能源出口链条，意图通过切断俄 罗斯的财政来源，迫使莫斯科在乌克兰问题上作出让步。美国的施压不仅仅针对欧洲盟友，还扩展到了印度这样的关键新兴市场。选择信实工业作为打击目 标并非偶然，因为这家公司长期以低价购买俄罗斯石油，并通过国内炼化后高价将产品销往欧洲，形成了一条盈利丰厚的跨国贸易通道。美国认为，这种做 法实质上绕开了国际制裁体系，为俄罗斯提供了资金支持，从而削弱了西方的围堵效果。 为了迫使印度改变政策，美国采取了一系列强硬措施。首先，美国公开谴责印度为俄罗斯战争机器提供资金支持，并威胁称如果印度不调整立场，将对其向 美国出口的商品加征最高500%的惩罚性关税。特朗普团队还披露了印度从俄罗斯进口原油的比例，由之前的1%激增至42%，年转售净收益高达160亿美元， 这一数据引发了欧美国家的高度警觉。 信实工业暂停 ...

最后，再说一下欧洲改变立场的另一个原因。众所周知，欧洲国家通常会趁机捞取好处，而仅仅一个俄罗斯不侵略的结果，显然无法满足他们的 利益需求。因此，另一个重要的原因可能是，地球上另一场大戏即将上演，这场大戏很可能将决定未来几十年甚至整个世纪的世界格局，欧洲不 得不对此给予足够的重视。 那么，为什么欧洲会做出这样的选择？尽管28点计划明显没有涉及欧洲的利益，表面上看，欧洲支持乌克兰近四年，却可能最终什么都没得到。 原因有两个。首先，11月21日，特朗普在接受美国媒体采访时表示，他希望乌克兰最迟在本月27日接受美国提出的28点计划。有消息称，如果乌 克兰不接受，美国将停止向乌克兰提供情报和武器支持。对于欧洲来说，尽管他们持续支持乌克兰，但如果没有美国的情报与武器供应，欧洲将 几乎无力作为。因此，欧洲只能就坡下驴了。更重要的是，美国提出的计划并非完全不关欧洲的事，至少，美国希望俄罗斯、乌克兰和欧洲能够 签署一份全面互不侵犯协议，俄罗斯还需以法律形式承诺不侵略乌克兰和欧洲，这样一来，欧洲的一个大难题便能得到解决。因此，一旦欧洲低 头，就意味着泽连斯基失去了最强大的支持，乌克兰将真正陷入孤立无援的困境。很多人认为泽连斯基背 ...