Group 1: Financial Engineering Research - The stock, bond, and gold markets showed positive, negative, and positive signals respectively as of the end of September 2025 [2] - The macro environment forecast for Q4 indicates inflation [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives' special committee issued a report detailing sanctions against China's semiconductor industry, suggesting measures like export controls and technology blockades to maintain U.S. dominance [4][20] - The report indicates that five major semiconductor equipment companies (AMAT, ASML, KLA, LAM, TEL) account for 80%-85% of the global market share, with China expected to spend $38 billion on semiconductor equipment in 2024 [5][21] - Despite challenges, there is optimism for domestic semiconductor equipment companies to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies, with recommended stocks including North China Huachuang and Tuo Jing Technology [4][20] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The demand for air travel surged during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with domestic passenger volume increasing by over 3% year-on-year [8][29] - The aviation industry is expected to see profitability growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong public and commercial demand [9][30] - If public demand continues to recover, the Chinese aviation industry could enter a "super cycle" by 2026, with recommendations to invest in high-quality airline networks [32] Group 4: Biomedicine Industry - Heartai Medical is a leader in congenital heart disease intervention devices, with a 32.4% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025 [13][14] - The company is advancing biodegradable occluders, which are gaining popularity due to their clinical advantages over traditional metal devices [14] - The market for heart valve interventions in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 69.8% from 2021 to 2025 [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical indicators for major asset classes, indicating a bullish outlook for equities and gold, while suggesting caution for industrial products and bonds [1][7][23]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Equities: The macroeconomic outlook is generally positive for equity assets, supported by favorable indicators [2][7]. - Bonds: The macroeconomic environment is also favorable for bond assets, although technical indicators suggest a downward trend [2][7]. - Industrial Products: The macroeconomic perspective is negative for industrial products, with both macro and technical indicators indicating a downward trend [2][7]. - Gold: The macroeconomic outlook is positive for gold assets, with technical indicators showing an upward trend [2][7]. Technical Analysis - Equities: The technical trend for equity assets is upward, with a moderate valuation and current capital outflow [2][12][19]. - Bonds: The technical trend for bond assets is downward, despite a positive macroeconomic outlook [2][12]. - Industrial Products: The technical trend for industrial products is also downward, aligning with the macroeconomic view [2][12]. - Gold: The technical trend for gold assets is upward, consistent with the macroeconomic analysis [2][12]. Asset Performance Tracking - Historical performance of a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators shows a return of 9.47% for 2025, with an annualized return of 12.04% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations yielded returns of 14.15% and 5.90%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.65% and 9.68% since April 2006 [3][30][33]. Summary of Indicators - The article summarizes the scores for macro and technical indicators across asset classes, indicating a total score of 3 for equities, 2 for bonds, -2 for industrial products, and 2 for gold [21][22][23].

Group 1 - Commodity ETFs have low investment costs, making them ideal for ordinary investors due to their risk diversification and ease of operation [1] - Commodity ETFs exhibit high trading efficiency, allowing for same-day buying and selling under T+0 rules, which enhances intraday trading opportunities compared to stock ETFs [1] - Commodity ETFs connect the securities and futures markets, enriching investment options and hedging tools, while promoting the institutionalization and professionalization of the capital market [1] Group 2 - Commodity ETFs present numerous potential arbitrage opportunities due to their efficient trading mechanisms and cross-market linkages, allowing for the development of mature arbitrage strategies [2]

Macro Insights - The macro environment for Q4 is predicted to show signals of inflation, with both credit spreads and term spreads indicating a narrowing trend as of September 2025 [4] - The macro momentum model signals for stocks, bonds, and gold are positive, negative, and positive respectively for October 2025 [5] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. House of Representatives' "China Semiconductor Strategy" report suggests that the rise of China's semiconductor industry poses a threat to U.S. national security and global technological dominance, recommending measures such as export controls and technology blockades [9] - The report indicates that five major semiconductor equipment companies (AMAT, ASML, KLA, LAM, TEL) hold 80%-85% of the global market share, with an estimated $38 billion to be spent on semiconductor equipment in mainland China in 2024 [9] - Despite existing export controls, there are significant loopholes, and non-U.S. equipment manufacturers are seeing increased revenue from restricted Chinese entities [10] - The report outlines several policy recommendations to strengthen export controls against China, including expanding the entity list and preventing the use of Chinese equipment in global fabs [11] Aviation Industry - The demand for travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 was robust, with a daily average increase of 6% in cross-regional movement compared to the previous year, and domestic air passenger volume expected to grow over 3% [16] - The aviation industry is projected to see profitability growth in Q3 2025, driven by increased passenger load factors and rising ticket prices, with expectations of continued growth compared to Q3 2019 [17] - The recovery of business travel demand is crucial for sustainable profitability in the aviation sector, with signs of recovery observed in April-May 2025 [18] - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle" if business travel demand continues to recover, with a significant upward shift in profitability expected [19]

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: The yields and changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of 10 - year treasury bonds in various economies like the US, UK, France, etc. were presented. For example, the US 10 - year treasury yield on 2025/09/30 was 4.151, with a latest change of 0.011, a weekly change of 0.044, a monthly change of - 0.111, and a yearly change of 0.421 [2]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields and Changes: Similar to the 10 - year bonds, the yields and changes of 2 - year treasury bonds in economies such as the US, UK, Germany were provided. For instance, the US 2 - year treasury yield on 2025/09/30 was 3.630, with a latest change of - 0.010, a weekly change of 0.060, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of 0.080 [2]. Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - Rates and Changes: The exchange rates and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies like the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were shown. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/09/30 was 5.322 with a latest change of - 0.01% [2]. Major Economies' Stock Indices - Indices and Changes: The values and changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of major economies' stock indices including the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were given. For example, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/09/30 was 6688.460, with a latest change of 0.41%, a weekly change of 0.47%, a monthly change of 4.25%, and a yearly change of 16.67% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Indices and Changes: The changes (latest, weekly, monthly, yearly) of credit bond indices such as the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index were presented. For example, the latest change of the US investment - grade credit bond index was - 0.06% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices and Changes: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were reported. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3882.78 with a 0.52% increase [3]. Valuation - PE Ratios and Changes: The PE (TTM) ratios and their环比 changes of indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50 were provided. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.22 with a环比 change of 0.03 [3]. Risk Premium - Calculation and Changes: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX were shown. For example, the risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.03 [3]. Fund Flows - Values and Averages: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were given. For example, the latest fund flow value of A - shares was - 288.47, and the 5 - day average was - 46.80 [3]. Trading Volume - Values and Changes: The latest trading volume values and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were reported. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21814.11 with a环比 change of 199.50 [3]. Basis and Spread - Basis and Magnitude: The basis and magnitude of the main index futures contracts like IF, IH, IC were presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 22.69 with a magnitude of - 0.49% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - Closing Prices and Percentage Changes: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures T00, TF00, etc. were reported. All had a 0.00% change [4]. Funding Rates - Rates and Daily Changes: The funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (in BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.5331% with a daily change of - 34.00 BP [4].

Market Overview - Macro growth factors continue to rise while inflation indicators decline, indicating persistent domestic demand issues[4] - The US economic surprise index rebounded, with recent economic data exceeding expectations, leading to a 0.54% increase in the US dollar index[4] - A-share market shows increased structural differentiation, with the STAR 50 index rising 6.5% while the CSI 1000 index fell 0.5%[4] Asset Performance - COMEX silver surged 7.95% this week, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, while Brent crude oil rose 4.21%[4] - The bond market weakened overall, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising, reflecting inflation expectations and pressure on long-duration assets[4] Investment Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Overseas Equities: Monitor interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential in the US dollar[5] - Gold: Increase allocation to gold and silver as core assets during the rate-cutting cycle, driven by both rate cuts and safe-haven demand[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Valuation Insights - A-share valuation remains high, with the CSI 800 P/E ratio at 52.41x and P/B ratio at 5.77x, indicating potential overvaluation risks[54] - Earnings expectations for the CSI 800 are flat, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.4%[55]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of the Public Fund Industry" sets higher requirements for the ability of the public fund industry to serve investors, guiding fund companies to optimize resource allocation in investment research, product design, risk management, and market promotion to achieve better returns for investors [1][3] Group 1: Action Plan and Industry Direction - The "Action Plan" emphasizes long-term, value, and rational investment, aligning with the mixed asset business as a key approach to meet investors' wealth management needs [1] - Mixed asset business features a wide coverage of types, diverse underlying assets, and high team requirements, including various product types such as primary and secondary bond funds, flexible allocation, and debt-type FOFs [1] Group 2: Product Strategy and Development - The future product layout of CICC Fund's mixed assets will focus on "precision, tool-based, and strategy-oriented" approaches to create a clear, risk-return characteristic product system that meets different client needs [1] - The "Fixed Income+" strategy aims to deepen traditional approaches and pursue absolute return goals, with series like "Steady+" focusing on high-grade credit bonds and low-volatility strategies, and "Balanced+" increasing equity asset allocation flexibility [2] - The development of multi-asset and multi-strategy products aims to enhance the breadth and depth of strategies, including the establishment of asset allocation FOF/MOM and quantitative hedging strategies to meet the needs of institutional investors and high-net-worth clients [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

Core Viewpoint - The FOF fund managers are optimistic about stock assets in the fourth quarter, focusing on technology growth and commodities, while also considering the role of bonds for volatility management [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The probability of corporate profit improvement is higher, making stock assets more attractive [1][3]. - The current stock-bond price ratio is around 5.2%, indicating a favorable environment for stocks despite the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. - The upward momentum in A-shares is driven by increased capital expenditure in the domestic computing power industry, supported by both domestic and international tech giants [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently overweighted, while overseas equity assets and commodities are given limited overweight [5]. - The sectors of technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and energy security have seen significant price increases this year, warranting a premium due to the ongoing AI-driven industrial revolution [5]. - The bond market has improved in terms of value after adjustments, and a neutral duration is recommended for bond allocations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Structural opportunities exist in technology growth within equity assets, and recently adjusted dividend stocks are also worth attention [6]. - Gold continues to show value in allocation, along with certain industrial commodities that face supply constraints [6].

Core Viewpoint - The event "New Era, New Fund, New Value" aims to enhance public understanding of mutual funds and financial services, bridging the gap between financial institutions and community residents [1][3]. Group 1: Event Purpose and Impact - The event is designed to bring professional mutual fund knowledge into communities, making financial services more accessible to residents [3]. - It enhances residents' financial literacy and provides insights into real investor needs, contributing to the exploration of high-quality development paths in the industry [3]. - The initiative is seen as a way for financial institutions to fulfill their social responsibilities and promote investor education [3]. Group 2: Educational Content and Engagement - Presentations included discussions on the impact of high-quality economic development on investments, with a focus on asset allocation aligned with national development strategies [3]. - Lecturers used simple language and relatable examples to explain economic conditions and financial knowledge, particularly emphasizing personal pension policies [5]. - The interactive session was well-received, with residents actively asking questions about investment, retirement savings, and market trends, indicating a strong interest in financial education [5][6].