Core Viewpoint - The commodity ETF market has experienced significant growth in both scale and performance, indicating its transition from a niche option to a core strategic asset in asset allocation [3][4]. Group 1: Growth in Scale and Performance - The total scale of commodity ETFs has increased by over 200% since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 966.2 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 2,267 billion yuan [5][7]. - Gold ETFs have emerged as the main driver of this growth, with an average scale increase of 4.8 times this year, significantly outperforming traditional equity and bond assets [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The explosive growth of commodity ETFs is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, market structure, and investor awareness, with gold ETFs particularly benefiting from their inflation-hedging and asset preservation functions [9][10]. - The price of gold has surged, reaching a peak of over 4,100 USD per ounce, which has been a key factor in the strong performance of gold ETFs, with returns close to 50% this year [9][21]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - Gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, making it essential to analyze future gold price trends for assessing the investment value of commodity ETFs [17][18]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support gold prices, as historical trends show that a rate-cutting cycle typically leads to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [18][19]. Group 4: Selection and Allocation Strategies - For investors focused on asset preservation and risk hedging, gold ETFs are the preferred choice, while those looking to capitalize on economic cycles may consider allocating to industrial metal or energy ETFs [24][25]. - A diversified allocation strategy is suggested, with varying proportions of gold ETFs, industrial metal ETFs, and energy ETFs based on the investor's risk tolerance and market outlook [25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the commodity ETF market appears promising, with ongoing product innovation expected to solidify commodity ETFs as a standard allocation in investment portfolios, especially in times of global uncertainty [26].

中证报中证网讯（记者 葛瑶 王超）11月26日，中信期货2026年度策略会在上海浦东召开。本次策略会 以"破浪前行，扬帆起航"为主题，共设置1个主论坛及8个分论坛，以多元化视角对2025年下半年以来的 宏观、权益、债券、大宗商品、汇率、海外市场等议题进行深入探讨，并对2026年相关议题做出展望。 窦长宏介绍，2025年中信期货保证金规模突破2000亿元，并创下新高，成交、持仓、交割规模均同比增 长。公司不断做深做实产业服务，服务产业客户超过1万家，实现套保金额近8000亿元；持续推出贴合 产业链风险管理诉求的衍生产品结构和期现结合产品，风险子公司服务实体企业2000余家，其中大部分 为中小微企业，服务实体交易金额超1500亿元。国际化方面，引进来和走出去业务规模均创历史新高， 全球市场的交易结算承做能力持续增强。 中国宏观经济学会副会长祝宝良发表了关于《2026年我国宏观经济形势和政策取向》的主题演讲。他认 为，2026年，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，不断 深化改革、扩大开放，着力扩大内需，着力增强微观主体活力，着力稳定市场主体信心，推动经济稳中 向好。 中信期货 ...

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/25 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.026 | 4.537 | 3.446 | 2.691 | 3.439 | 3.194 | 0.145 | 3.302 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 1.773 | 6.185 | 1.813 | - | 4.443 | 4.162 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.498 | 3.778 | 2.009 | 0.941 | 2.188 | 1.404 | - | 3.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment philosophies of various individuals, particularly focusing on the insights shared by Duan Yongping, highlighting the subjective nature of investment strategies and the importance of aligning them with personal circumstances [1][3][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Duan Yongping emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with a competitive moat, such as Apple, Moutai, and Tencent, but does not provide specific criteria for identifying such companies [1][3]. - The article mentions various successful investment strategies from different individuals, including quantitative rotation, value investing, and asset allocation, suggesting that there are multiple paths to success in the capital markets [2][3]. - It is noted that Duan's investment approach may not be suitable for everyone, particularly for those without the same level of financial security or understanding of market dynamics [3][4]. Group 2: Personalization of Investment - The article stresses that each investor must find a strategy that matches their own conditions, as not everyone can adopt the same methods successfully [3][7]. - It highlights the importance of personal experience and understanding in investment, suggesting that what works for one individual may not work for another [6][7]. - The discussion includes the notion that investment is a highly personalized endeavor, and individuals should absorb wisdom from various sources to refine their own investment frameworks [7][8]. Group 3: Market Insights - The article reflects on the current market environment, indicating that while broad investment principles may hold true, the application of these principles can vary significantly based on market conditions [5][9]. - It mentions the potential for significant returns in the stock market, but also acknowledges the challenges and risks involved in identifying future successful companies [5][11]. - The discussion includes references to the financial performance of companies like OPPO and VIVO, suggesting that strong cash flow from these businesses can support investment strategies [9][10].

Economic Outlook - The global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down 2 percentage points from 2024, but remains resilient[2] - Developed economies are projected to grow at 1.6%, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown and the Eurozone showing weak momentum[2] Interest Rates and Market Sensitivity - The U.S. policy interest rate is anticipated to decline to a range of 3.0%–3.25%, while the Eurozone will maintain around 2.15%[2] - High interest rates combined with high debt levels have intensified the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies, leading to quicker market responses to policy signals[2] Asset Correlation and Investment Strategy - There is an increasing correlation between risk and non-risk assets, with traditional linear assumptions becoming less applicable[2][3] - The shift from asset diversification to path diversification is necessary to enhance portfolio resilience in a chaotic market environment[7][8] Market Dynamics - The relationship between assets is more prone to convergence under disturbances, with reduced inverse relationships between stocks and bonds[7] - Price formation is increasingly influenced by policy changes and market narratives, necessitating a focus on potential price trajectories rather than merely expanding asset classes[8] Future Asset Performance - U.S. long-term yields are expected to fluctuate within a range of 3.9%–4.2%[10] - Emerging markets, particularly India and parts of Latin America, are likely to perform better than developed markets due to structural adjustments and valuation recoveries[10] Gold and Currency Outlook - Gold is expected to maintain a strong position supported by central bank reserve demands and policy uncertainties[10] - The U.S. dollar is projected to remain weak, with the index likely trading between 95 and 100, favoring non-U.S. currencies[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advantages of Fund of Funds (FOF) in addressing common challenges faced by ordinary investors, such as difficulty in selecting funds and holding them long-term, with the launch of Huashang HuiXiang Multi-Asset Allocation 3-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF) as a solution [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Overview - Huashang HuiXiang Multi-Asset Allocation 3-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF) is being issued by Huashang Fund, a well-established public fund company with nearly 20 years of experience [1][5]. - The fund aims to provide long-term stable returns through a diversified asset allocation strategy, with equity allocation set between 5%-30% and the ability to invest in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks [3][5]. - The fund has a minimum holding period of 3 months to encourage long-term investment habits among investors [3][5]. Group 2: Fund Manager Profile - The fund will be managed by Sun Zhiyuan, who has 13.6 years of experience in the securities industry, including 6.7 years in securities investment and 6.9 years in research and analysis [2]. - Sun Zhiyuan's investment philosophy focuses on providing a good investment experience even for investors entering at the worst market timing, emphasizing a combination of absolute and relative returns [2][5]. - Under his management, the Huashang Anyuan Stable Progress One-Year Holding Mixed Fund (FOF) ranked second in its category for A-class shares and first for C-class shares over the past year [2][6]. Group 3: Company Strengths - Huashang Fund has received multiple top ratings, including a 5A rating for three-year comprehensive fund management from Tianxiang Investment Consulting [5][8]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in both active equity and fixed-income funds, ranking second in absolute returns for active equity funds over the past seven years and first for active fixed-income funds [5][8]. - The combination of Sun Zhiyuan's management experience and Huashang Fund's robust research capabilities positions the new fund to potentially offer a professional investment perspective and improved holding experience for investors [5].

Core Insights - Guangdong Rundar Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. has established a unique investment research framework combining top-down and bottom-up approaches, aiming to optimize risk-adjusted returns for investors [1][2] Investment Strategy - The company employs a dual selection method for stock picking, leveraging both subjective and quantitative analysis to enhance investment decision-making [1][2] - The investment team consists of experienced professionals from leading fund companies, contributing to a robust investment framework [1] Research Framework - The top-down research framework focuses on macro policies, industry trends, and micro fundamentals to identify investment opportunities [2] - Quantitative analysis is utilized to assess price-volume relationships, cash flow inertia, momentum strength, and market correlation, aiding in the valuation of investment portfolios [2] Quantitative Strategies - Rundar Fund has developed a "neural network model" for quantitative trading strategies, including timing strategies, index enhancement strategies, and subjective stock selection strategies [2][3] - The company has diversified its quantitative strategies to cover a broader range of market indices and self-developed indices [3] Risk Management - The firm emphasizes risk control through scientific methods to optimize risk-adjusted returns, particularly in quantitative timing strategies [3][4] - Subjective investment risk management involves adjusting asset allocation and utilizing derivatives for hedging purposes [4] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a gradual upward shift in its volatility center, driven by economic transformation and capital market reforms [4][5] - The company identifies structural opportunities in sectors supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in technology innovation, high-end manufacturing, and green low-carbon initiatives [5] Investment Focus - Specific investment opportunities include artificial intelligence, quantum technology, integrated circuits, new energy, military industry, energy storage, and new transportation equipment [5] - The company believes that the valuation of technology stocks should consider future growth potential rather than solely relying on current price-to-earnings ratios [5]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Recent global market turmoil is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility across asset classes [3][4][5] - Concerns over AI sector sustainability and geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the decline in various asset prices, particularly in the tech sector [4][5][6] Group 2: A-shares and H-shares Outlook - The current adjustments in A-shares and H-shares are seen as emotional disturbances rather than fundamental changes, with expectations for policy support and foreign capital inflow remaining positive [6][7] - Analysts maintain a long-term optimistic view on A-shares and H-shares, anticipating a healthy recovery despite potential short-term volatility [6][7][8] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The outlook for gold remains positive due to anticipated global monetary expansion, although its risk-return profile may decline as economic conditions stabilize [9][10] - Analysts highlight that gold serves as a hedge against rising debt levels and geopolitical risks, reinforcing its long-term investment appeal [10][11] Group 4: Oil Market Projections - The oil market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with prices projected between $60 and $70 per barrel due to weak demand and OPEC's production strategies [14][15] - Geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics will continue to influence oil prices, with a cautious outlook for significant price increases [15][16] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - A-shares are viewed as having superior investment value, with a focus on sectors like technology and high-end manufacturing, while also considering defensive positions in high-dividend stocks [16][17] - Analysts suggest that the current market environment favors a diversified approach, balancing risk and return across various asset classes [17][18] Group 6: Risks to Monitor - Key risks include potential economic data surprises from the U.S. and geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment and liquidity [18][19] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has not alleviated concerns over liquidity, and ongoing uncertainties in economic performance may affect global asset markets [19][20]

Group 1 - The recent global market turmoil is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts, concerns over AI sector sustainability, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [4][5][6]. - A-shares and H-shares are viewed as having long-term strategic opportunities despite recent adjustments, with expectations for policy support and foreign capital inflow remaining intact [8][9]. - The outlook for A-shares and H-shares is positive, with analysts suggesting that the current market environment presents a window for investment [8][9][10]. Group 2 - Gold is expected to remain a strong asset in the medium to long term, supported by global monetary expansion and increasing central bank purchases [11][12][13]. - Analysts predict that the global stock market will continue to trend upwards, driven by liquidity and risk appetite, although caution is advised regarding inflation and geopolitical risks [14][15][16]. - The oil market is anticipated to experience a range-bound trading pattern, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [17][18][19]. Group 3 - A-shares are considered to have superior investment value, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, while also incorporating defensive strategies [20][21]. - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to favor A-shares, H-shares, gold, and short-term U.S. Treasuries, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [21][22]. - Attention should be paid to liquidity and geopolitical risks, particularly in light of potential economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [23][24][25].

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3931.05 | 4564.95 | 3008.29 | 3042.34 | 7061.95 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.40 | -0.51 | -0.40 | -1.12 | -0.85 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.14 | 12.03 | 32.17 | 25.98 | 18.06 | | 环比变化 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.27 | -0.41 | 0.09 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | 3.70 | 5.77 | -0.38 | -0.24 | 2.82 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | -0.04 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪 ...