Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the liquidity situation of various financial product sectors on August 14, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - On August 14, 2025, different sectors showed different liquidity performances. The trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of each sector varied, with some sectors experiencing an increase in trading volume and others a decrease [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate - The trading volume of the stock index plate was 777.665 billion yuan, a +16.27% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1203.26 billion yuan, a - 1.36% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.62% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 599.759 billion yuan, a +20.17% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 820.249 billion yuan, a - 1.83% change; the trading - holding ratio was 75.23% [1]. IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - **Base Metals**: The trading volume was 414.711 billion yuan, a - 3.62% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 506.463 billion yuan, a - 2.30% change; the trading - holding ratio was 105.18% [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The trading volume was 221.192 billion yuan, a - 25.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 440.574 billion yuan, a +0.32% change; the trading - holding ratio was 59.65% [1]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 508.484 billion yuan, a +18.51% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 433.418 billion yuan, a +0.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 100.62% [1]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 456.302 billion yuan, a - 19.02% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 609.453 billion yuan, a - 1.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 71.03% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 436.075 billion yuan, a - 8.27% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 399.136 billion yuan, a - 4.10% change; the trading - holding ratio was 93.40% [2].

为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今日央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展5000亿元6个月 （182天）期限买断式逆回购操作。 鉴于8月有累计9000亿元买断式逆回购到期，而8月8日央行已开展过7000亿元3个月期限买断式逆回购操 作，本月买断式逆回购将实现净投放3000亿元。 这也意味着央行买断式逆回购将实现连续3个月加量续作。业内人士对智通财经记者表示，当前政府债 券持续处于发行高峰期阶段，央行开展买断式逆回购操作将保持流动性充裕，有助于强化逆周期调节。 8月存单到期规模较大 央行呵护市场流动性 7月信贷需求被提前透支 中期流动性或面临压力 近日发布的7月金融数据显示，7月为信贷小月，且6月提前透支了部分7月的需求，叠加暂时性的外生冲 击因素扰动，单月信贷投放强度降低。 "7月新信贷信贷出现波动，主要6月受信贷透支，以及隐债置换等短期因素影响，8月新增信贷将有所恢 复。这意味着8月在短期市场流动性继续处于较为稳定的充裕状态下，中期市场流动性有一定收紧压 力。"王青指出。 从金融数据看流动性，市场增加了对于下半年降准降息的预期。银河证券研究预计三季度将再次调降政 策利率10-20BP，从而引导LPR下行 ...

Core Insights - The funds held in a key Federal Reserve tool have dropped to their lowest level in over four years, signaling a significant shift in market liquidity [1][3] - The usage of the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has decreased, with only $28.8 billion deposited by 14 institutions, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [3][4] - The decline in RRP usage is attributed to the U.S. Treasury's increased issuance of short-term bonds to address the growing fiscal deficit, attracting cash away from the RRP tool [3][5] Group 1 - The RRP tool is viewed as a critical indicator of excess liquidity in the financing market, and its declining usage sends unusual signals to the market [3][4] - The balance in the RRP tool has significantly decreased from $214 billion since the end of July, primarily due to the Treasury's issuance of hundreds of billions in Treasury bills [4][5] - Analysts predict that if the current trend continues, RRP usage could approach zero by the end of August, raising concerns about future liquidity conditions [5] Group 2 - The reduction in RRP balances limits the buffer space for banks, increasing liquidity risk in the market [5] - The ability of the Federal Reserve to conduct balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) may be hindered if bank reserves fall too low, necessitating caution to avoid market disruption [4][5] - Market participants and regulators face significant challenges in addressing the potential liquidity crisis as RRP balances continue to decline [5]

Group 1 - The scale of funds parked in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising market concerns about the cash held by banks at the Fed, which is a key indicator of liquidity conditions [1] - As of Thursday, 14 participating institutions had a total of $28.8 billion in the RRP, marking the lowest level since April 2021, with the number of bidding institutions also at its lowest since then [1] - The usage of the RRP tool has been declining as the U.S. Treasury issues more short-term debt to cover its growing deficit, drawing cash away from this critical backup funding source [1] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that by the end of August, RRP usage could approach zero, defining "exhaustion" as a range of $0 to $20 billion [2] - With the RRP balance nearing zero, there is little buffer left for banks, making reserves a focal point for market observation [2] - Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its bond holdings, with a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction observed in April [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed should be able to reduce bank reserve levels to around $2.7 trillion without putting pressure on bank reserves [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation will be conducted on August 15 with a six-month term, following the maturity of 900 billion yuan in reverse repos in August [1] - This move indicates the PBOC's commitment to ensuring reasonable liquidity levels in the market, as it has consistently pre-announced operations since June [1] Group 2 - The central government has emphasized accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds, which supports the PBOC's liquidity measures [1] - There is an expectation of 300 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing in August, with market institutions predicting an increase in MLF operations [2] - The PBOC aims to maintain a stable liquidity environment, utilizing various monetary policy tools to ensure the banking system remains adequately liquid [2]

8月14日央行发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 在多位业内人士看来，此次公告符合市场预期，意味着当月央行通过买断式逆回购操作注入中期流动性3000亿 元。 在8日8日央行开展7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购后，15日再开展5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购，因8月分别有 4000亿元3个月期和5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，显示当月央行共计超额续作买断式逆回购合计3000亿 元。 "此外，8月还有3000亿元MLF到期，预计央行也有可能加量续作。"东方金诚首席分析师王青表示，整体上看，8 月市场流动性不会延续7月下旬开始的持续收紧过程，反内卷推升市场利率的可持续性有待进一步观察。 文/刘佳 编辑：冯樱子 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - On August 13, the A-share trading volume surpassed 2 trillion yuan, marking the sixth occurrence in history and the first in nearly a decade where both trading volume and margin financing exceeded 2 trillion yuan on the same trading day [4][5]. - The report highlights a transition in the market from a high-leverage driven environment to a more mature market driven by policy collaboration and fundamental improvements. The current market sentiment is reflected in the active trading volumes and margin financing balances [5]. - The report notes that 27 listed brokerages have released mid-year performance forecasts, with a collective net profit growth of 63.0% to 77.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.8% to 21.5% for Q2 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Historical data shows that A-share trading volumes have exceeded 2 trillion yuan on 27 trading days across three periods: May-June 2015, September-December 2024, and February-August 2025. The latest occurrence on August 13, 2025, is significant as it reflects a shift towards a more stable market environment [5][6]. Profitability and Valuation - The report indicates that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities sector is 1.56x, which is at a historical low compared to the past five and ten years, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [7]. - Notably, some smaller brokerages have shown remarkable profit growth, with China United Securities reporting a year-on-year increase of 1183% and Huaxi Securities between 1025% and 1354% [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with strong alpha characteristics in the medium to long term, while short-term strategies should capitalize on increased market risk appetite. Specific stocks recommended include Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive impact of the U.S. CPI data on market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant gains in both U.S. and Chinese stock markets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, which boosted the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2]. - Following the CPI data release, U.S. stock indices experienced a collective rise, and the Chinese market also saw significant gains, particularly in the brokerage sector, with stocks like Guosheng Financial and Great Wall Securities hitting the daily limit [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The brokerage sector has shown a strong upward trend since late June, breaking through previous resistance levels, indicating a healthy market condition with increasing volume and price [5]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, has also surged, with companies like Guangku Technology experiencing substantial price increases, reflecting strong investor interest and potential [2]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - Short-term prospects indicate that increased trading volume and positive index performance will enhance the profitability of brokerage firms, leading to upward revisions in earnings expectations and valuations [6]. - Long-term, the supply-side reform in the industry is expected to progress steadily, benefiting leading brokerages and specialized smaller firms, which will enhance their market share and profitability [6]. - The current market environment is characterized by active participation from retail investors and leveraged funds, supported by favorable policies aimed at nurturing the capital market, which is expected to provide a solid foundation for the ongoing market rally [6].

A股的热情还会延续吗？在洪灏看来，A股短期内或难现疯牛、快牛，但市场整体的上行行情大概率会 延续到2026年，其核心驱动因素在于市场流动性条件的持续改善。 这一改善的核心，一方面源于美联储9月降息预期及国内央行逆回购操作注入流动性，对风险资产表现 构成利好。另一方面还来自于全球流动性的改善，以及海外滞留资金向中国的回流。 中国的外储是宏观流动性的一个非常重要的部分。洪灏表示，将外汇储备变化与中证全A指数对比，可 见二者高度相关。过去几年来，受到美元升值和对美元资产收益预期的影响，我国大量出口创汇选择滞 留海外进行投资。但2025年以来，这些滞留海外的资金开始回流中国。这也解释了在贸易冲突阴影下美 元走弱，而人民币汇率略显走升的现象。 21世纪经济报道记者 黎雨辰 北京报道 "今年70%-80%的股票、四分之三的基金都取得了正收益，而这一行情大概率还没有走完。"8月12日， 在京东财富15理财日投资策略会上，知名经济学家、莲华资产首席投资官洪灏指出。 8月13日，A股市场震荡走高，盘中突破3674点，即2024年10月8日以来的高点。整体来看，年内A股市 场延续强势，三大指数均创年内新高，市场交投活跃度也显著提 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Market liquidity remains abundant, A-share margin trading funds hit a new high, and stock index reactions to domestic and foreign disturbances are significantly dulled [5]. - Valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role as the ERP of CSI 300 is at a historical high (74.25% quantile) and Huijin supports liquidity [5]. - The current stock index futures discount advantage is still large. Strategically, it is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a 0.28bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a 1.53bp change, GC001 at 1.50 with a 31.50bp change, etc. [4] - **Bond Yields**: 1 - year treasury bond yield is 1.36 with a 0.29bp change, 5 - year at 1.56 with a 1.77bp change, 10 - year at 1.71 with a 2.31bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.27 with a 4.00bp change [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: CSI 300 rose 0.43% to 4122.5, SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2789.9, CSI 500 rose 1.08% to 6391.8, and CSI 1000 rose 1.55% to 6943.9. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1827 billion yuan, an increase of 116.7 billion yuan from last Friday [4]. - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 104,750 with a 39.4% change, and its open interest was 264,743 with a 5.7% change; IH volume was 49,078 with a 24.4% change, and its open interest was 96,586 with a 7.6% change; IC volume was 93,503 with a 34.3% change, and its open interest was 223,884 with a 4.3% change; IM volume was 213,349 with a 35.4% change, and its open interest was 359,739 with a 7.6% change [4]. Futures Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.41%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 3.12% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium and discount rates are 4.89%, 0.17%, - 0.11%, and - 0.03% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium and discount rates are 33.63%, 13.61%, 10.86%, and 9.97% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium and discount rates are 24.10%, 12.50%, 11.33%, and 11.06% respectively [7].