Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing its worst monthly performance since the industry collapse in 2022, with a drop of over 30% from its historical high of $126,000 in early October, leading to a monthly decline of approximately 25% in November, marking the worst performance since 2022 [1][2] Market Performance - Bitcoin's price fell to $80,553, while Ethereum also suffered a significant drop of 8.9%, falling below $2,700 [1] - The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has fallen below $3 trillion for the first time since April [2] Market Dynamics - A large-scale liquidation event on October 10 led to the forced closure of $19 billion in leveraged positions, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $1.5 trillion [4] - In the past 24 hours, an additional $2 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, with open interest in perpetual futures contracts decreasing by 35% from the October peak of $94 billion, indicating a significant reduction in risk exposure by investors [5][4] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors have shown no interest in buying the dip, with $903 million net outflow from 12 U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, marking the second-largest single-day redemption since their launch in January 2024 [8] - The cryptocurrency investor sentiment index has dropped to its lowest level since the 2022 crash, indicating that traders are in a state of "extreme fear" [8] Selling Pressure - The convergence of forced liquidations and structural sell-offs from ETFs has created a particularly fragile market state, with significant selling pressure from long-term holders [6][3] - A notable wallet, identified as "Owen Gunden," has sold a total of $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin since the end of October, highlighting a trend of large-scale selling by long-term investors [12][7] Liquidity Concerns - Market liquidity is expected to diminish as the holiday season approaches, which could exacerbate price volatility if investors continue to reduce their positions [7][8] - The mNAV ratio of Strategy companies, which are attempting to replicate Michael Saylor's Bitcoin accumulation strategy, has fallen to just above 1.2, raising concerns about their positions in major indices [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on November 20, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume was 727.794 billion yuan, a change of - 0.76% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1339.553 billion yuan, a change of + 0.73%; the trading - holding ratio was 53.89% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 575.231 billion yuan, a change of + 25.53% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 838.221 billion yuan, a change of - 0.09%; the trading - holding ratio was 67.68% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic metal: The trading volume was 564.088 billion yuan, a change of - 4.94% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.192 billion yuan, a change of - 0.64%; the trading - holding ratio was 113.62% - Precious metal: The trading volume was 977.091 billion yuan, a change of + 21.73% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 447.343 billion yuan, a change of + 0.71%; the trading - holding ratio was 290.76% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 529.415 billion yuan, a change of + 11.44% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 456.358 billion yuan, a change of - 0.98%; the trading - holding ratio was 108.10% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 309.372 billion yuan, a change of - 11.18% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 599.657 billion yuan, a change of + 0.17%; the trading - holding ratio was 44.96% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 263.688 billion yuan, a change of + 29.96% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 369.927 billion yuan, a change of - 0.92%; the trading - holding ratio was 71.80% [2]

流动性日报 | 2025-11-20 市场流动性概况 2025-11-19，股指板块成交7333.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.35%；持仓金额13299.07亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.15%；成交持仓比为54.71%。 国债板块成交4582.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.96%；持仓金额8389.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.09%；成交 持仓比为54.39%。 基本金属板块成交5933.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.58%；持仓金额6100.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.86%； 成交持仓比为118.78%。 贵金属板块成交8026.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.37%；持仓金额4442.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.17%；成 交持仓比为228.62%。 能源化工板块成交4750.54亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.69%；持仓金额4608.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.64%； 成交持仓比为95.02%。 农产品板块成交3483.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.67%；持仓金额5986.57亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.95%；成 交持仓比为51.02%。 黑色建材板块成交20 ...

Gold Market - Gold prices have rebounded strongly after a period of decline, with short-term technical indicators showing improvement. Central banks remain the primary buyers of gold, continuing to increase their purchases [1] - In September, global central banks bought 64 tons of gold, and purchases are expected to continue into November. From Q4 2025 to 2026, central banks are projected to buy an average of 80 tons of gold per month [1] - The tightening of market liquidity due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a positive factor for gold prices, potentially driving them higher [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a strong position, with support around $4055 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices show signs of strength, but market sentiment remains cautious, with overall trends still within a long-term downtrend [2] - The latest data indicates a rise in U.S. API crude oil inventories by 4.448 million barrels, marking the largest increase in five months. Gasoline and distillate inventories also rose [2] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a potential record surplus in crude oil by 2026, primarily due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-member countries [2] - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices are currently rebounding but remain below moving averages, with support around $59.40 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index has been primarily fluctuating, gaining support as expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have decreased [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December has fallen below 50%, with current estimates at approximately 48.9%, down from around 70% two weeks ago [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts create uncertainty, but ongoing liquidity risks may prompt a quicker decision on rate cuts [4] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes is anticipated to provide further market guidance [4] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a significant bearish pattern, indicating potential for further declines, with resistance noted around 49110 [5] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a high probability of reaching a peak, although an upward continuation pattern may still form [6] - Technical analysis suggests that copper may experience one final decline, with support around $4.90 [6]

Core Insights - The recent Bitcoin crash has led to over 160,000 investors being liquidated within 24 hours, resulting in a total loss of $580 million in the cryptocurrency market [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price dropped to $93,778.6, erasing all gains made in 2024, with significant declines also seen in major altcoins like Ethereum and Cardano, which fell between 1.93% and 3.44% [3][4]. - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has significantly decreased, reflecting widespread panic among investors [3]. Investor Behavior - Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold approximately 815,000 Bitcoins in the past 30 days, marking the highest selling activity since early 2024 [3][7]. - "Whale" wallets, holding Bitcoin for over seven years, are selling at a rate exceeding 1,000 Bitcoins per hour, indicating a strategic distribution rather than panic selling [8][10]. Market Structure Issues - High leverage trading has been identified as a primary amplifier of market vulnerability, with a significant number of investors unable to meet margin calls during the price drop [4][6]. - The decoupling of stablecoins from their pegged values has further shaken market confidence, with USDe dropping to $0.65 and XUSD plummeting to $0.18, leading to questions about the stability of the crypto financial system [6][4]. Institutional Withdrawal - Institutional investors are quietly withdrawing from the market, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $2.6 billion, the longest streak since March [10][11]. - The withdrawal of large investment funds and corporate treasury departments has removed crucial support for the market, indicating a new period of vulnerability [11]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has drastically shifted, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 15, indicating extreme fear, the lowest level since February [13][14]. - Negative discussions surrounding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have surged, reflecting a significant decline in market confidence [13][14]. Regulatory Environment - Increasing regulatory pressures are contributing to market fears, with warnings from the G20 Financial Stability Board about significant gaps in cryptocurrency regulation [16].

流动性日报 | 2025-11-19 市场流动性概况 2025-11-18，股指板块成交7236.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.74%；持仓金额13454.31亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.02%；成交持仓比为53.29%。 国债板块成交4129.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.68%；持仓金额8656.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.16%；成交持 仓比为46.89%。 基本金属板块成交4921.12亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.85%；持仓金额5931.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.55%；成 交持仓比为97.61%。 贵金属板块成交7272.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-38.29%；持仓金额4390.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.51%；成交 持仓比为209.18%。 能源化工板块成交3871.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.85%；持仓金额4579.15亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.35%；成 交持仓比为76.23%。 农产品板块成交3064.28亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.74%；持仓金额6043.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.66%；成交 持仓比为48.64%。 黑色建材板块成交2274.48 ...

Gold Market - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to hawkish statements from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which have led to a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - At the beginning of November, the market had anticipated over an 80% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, but this expectation has rapidly diminished, tightening market liquidity and strengthening the US dollar index, thereby suppressing gold prices [2] - On November 18, Federal Reserve official Waller reiterated the need for a rate cut in December, which temporarily boosted bullish sentiment in the gold market [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihau believes that the sustainability of the gold price decline is weak, and the market will refocus on the upcoming US non-farm payroll data to be released on Thursday [2] - From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, while the hourly chart indicates a breakout above the 60-day moving average, suggesting a weak trend reversal phase [2] Oil Market - As of November 19, reports indicate that US sanctions are significantly reducing demand for Russian oil, with the US Treasury Department stating that recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful [4] - The focus of the oil market has been on Russian supply, particularly following attacks on Russian oil facilities and the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports, which have supported a short-term increase in oil prices [5] - From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows a bullish candle, and the market has broken out of a rectangular consolidation pattern, testing the resistance level at $61.20 [5] - Current prices are above the 60/120-day moving averages, but the bullish advantage is not strong, with today's focus on whether prices can maintain above $61.20, while support is noted at $60.10 and resistance at $61.40 [5] Copper Market - The daily chart indicates a bearish candle, with prices trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, continuing a downward trend [7] - The market showed signs of consolidation yesterday, gradually correcting the divergence, with support noted at $4.86 and the potential for prices to test and possibly break below $4.90 [7] Nasdaq Market - The daily chart reflects a bearish candle, with prices also trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, indicating a continuation of the downward trend [8] - Today's focus is on the support level at 24,000 and resistance at 24,700 [8]

本周，金银价格明显下跌。昨日，沪金、沪银期货价格跌幅较大。分析人士认为，美联储降息预期下降 是近期贵金属价格下跌的主要原因。 此前，美国政府结束"停摆"，短期市场流动性恢复，风险资产普涨，金银价格明显上行。宝城期货宏观 研究员龙奥明认为，本轮金银价格下跌，主要原因是近期美联储多位官员相继发表"鹰"派言论，导致市 场降息预期下降。 白银方面，严梦圆认为，美联储内部分歧加剧影响降息预期，若"鹰"派官员增加则将进一步增强银价下 跌压力。本周将有多位美联储官员在公开场合进行表态，都将对降息预期起到指导作用。 "多位美联储官员的表态给此前市场的降息预期泼了'冷水'，11月初市场一度预期美联储12月降息概率 超过90%。短期降息预期快速下降收紧了市场的流动性，推动了美元指数走强和美国国债收益率回升。 这对于以美元计价的黄金和白银来说，意味着持有成本增加，也间接压制了其价格。"龙奥明表示。 （文章来源：期货日报） 黄金方面，本周沪金价格跌幅较大，浙商期货贵金属分析师郑弘认为，除了受降息预期下降的影响外， 11月地缘政治风险也在下降、全球贸易摩擦缓和，整体市场避险情绪有所降温。 "这些数据将直接影响市场对美联储12月降息的预 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-11-18 市场流动性概况 2025-11-17，股指板块成交6654.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.52%；持仓金额13318.77亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.35%；成交持仓比为49.83%。 国债板块成交3945.39亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.33%；持仓金额8642.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.04%；成交持 仓比为44.70%。 基本金属板块成交5282.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.54%；持仓金额6214.29亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.14%； 成交持仓比为99.56%。 贵金属板块成交11786.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+23.70%；持仓金额4457.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.51%；成 交持仓比为333.99%。 能源化工板块成交4112.50亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.48%；持仓金额4595.22亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.02%；成 交持仓比为79.15%。 农产品板块成交3395.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.12%；持仓金额6004.07亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.79%；成交 持仓比为54.81%。 黑色建材板块成交2441 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][9] - Bitcoin's price drop has coincided with a decline in traditional safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a broader market liquidity crisis [1][9] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows have raised concerns about market stability [6][7] - The recent tightening of macro liquidity and increased political and policy uncertainties have prompted some institutions to withdraw from the market, contributing to Bitcoin's price decline [6][7] Future Outlook - Despite the current volatility, the long-term fundamentals for Bitcoin remain intact, supported by global asset diversification trends and increasing institutional participation [6][7] - The narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation still holds potential, but it requires a shift from a speculative tool to a value storage asset [7][8] - The need for a more robust regulatory framework and technological trust is critical for Bitcoin's future acceptance as a mainstream asset [7][8] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and safe-haven assets like gold suggests a systemic liquidity issue, where investors are forced to liquidate assets for cash [9][10][11] - The current market environment indicates that various asset prices are increasingly correlated, reflecting a deeper liquidity pressure test [11]